Finish has an affect, but I personally feel that time/temp is always the key. It really is with any type of heat-treat... but it hits home even harder with water.
The one thing I can recommend on finish is to get all of your "sanding striations" going lengthwise with the blade... at least on the cutting edge. I have water quenched a good many blades SUCCESSFULLY with a 50X finish... hence my comment about time/temp being the real big factor.
I spent about a year and a half figuring out water quenching, and broke something like 50 blades in the process.
Having a salt bath and/or a heat-treat oven eliminates a lot of variables that will bite you.
I remember Leon and Hiroko Kapp (authors of
The Craft of the Japanese Sword ) telling me that a Japanese swordsmith with a 70% success rate is considered VERY good.
Also, interupt the quench. My best success in hunter and bowie size blades was this
<> submerge in water for a count of 2-3
<> out of water for 2 count
<> back into water for 3 count
<> back out for 2-3 count
<> then I'd stick it in oil for a few seconds and then rush it into the tempering cycle IMMEDIATELY.
I had blades literally rip apart while I was standing there looking at them post water quench.
You'll get some crazy hamon activity... But with Park's #50 available now, I really have a hard time telling anybody to try water unless they just want to explore/experiment for the sake of doing so (which is fun, for sure!)
