What one custom would you buy

wolfmann601

wolfmann601

Gone, but not forgotton. RIP Ira.
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Mar 12, 2001
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What one custom knife would you buy if you were looking for strictly a money-making 10-year investment?

I know this is pure speculating, but that's what it's all about when looking for an investment grade, money making knife. So please feel free to speculate as this is hypothetical.:p

So who's your sugar-daddy maker(s)?
 
Interesting question; one with many possible correct answers.

I would have to say one of the newer, up and coming bladesmiths. A couple people come to mind immediately, as they are sure to become great mastersmiths. Russ Andrews, Nick Wheeler, Jason Knight, Burt Foster. Take your pick. Any knife you buy from them now, WILL be worth more down the road.
 
Wolfman,

You neglected two aspects of your question.

1) How much money do you have to spend on this "one" knife?

2) What Return on Investment do you expect?
 
Make money on a $400 knife is going to be easy. It's the $2,500 knife which is dangerous.
 
Hi Bruce,

Best buy today does not translate to the investment of tommorrow. No, Im not picking on Nick. I think he makes excellent knives for the money.

Hi Joss,

$400 is only easy because you feel comfortable "investing" that amount.

There are execellent investments at the $400 level as well as the $2,500 level.
 
Les,

It stands to reason that the market for $2,500 is much more constrained than that of $400 knives. So, all things being equal, the $400 knife market is more liquid.

Also, I've not seen many $2,500 changing hands on the net, on eBay or here. So I suppose those knives are sold either via a very tight network of collectors, or through consignment with a dealer (which meant 25% in the case of AG Russell). There are costs associating with such transactions that there aren't with dealing online directly from buyer to seller.

JD
 
Les I know what you mean but I know Nick personally. I say he is in it for the "Long Haul" There are many makers out there that are a great investment also, regardless of the initial cost of a piece.
 
The basic difference I see in reselling a $400 knife versus a $2500 is the access I have to people who would be able to afford the expense. Now assuming the knife is still popular or trendy or whatever so it is still marketable, how much effort and expense is required to complete the sale?

Unlike a reputable knife purveyor with contacts most of us can never imagine, an individual seller is unlikely to get a "cold call" for a knife unless it is so significantly underpriced that people are fighting over it on the 'net.

I've got that situation now with an individual who was referred by someone else who sent me an email. Their email inbox is full and I have no other way to contact them or thank the person who sent them to me.
 
Hi Joss,

The question is which one knife would you buy for the purpose of a 10 year investment.

You have to remember that in actuality there are very few custom knife buyers on Bladeforums or Ebay.

The number who routinely purchase $2,500 on either location would be few if any. So basing your conclusions on these sites are probably not the best places to gather good "intel".

You bring up a vaild point. If your going to buy a custom knife for the idea of investment. You should probably do your homework and find out who the buyers are for that type of knife.

As with any investment if you use a broker (paintings, coins, stocks, bonds, etc.) you will pay a commission. After all the reason you are going to these individuals to sell your investment. Is the years they have spent in that field earning their reputation and connections. This will help you divest yourself of your investment in a timely manner.

Don't forget if you choose to sell the knife yourself. You will have to at a minimum spend your time and probably some money to sell the knife. So there are costs associated with selling directly from seller to buyer. Make sure you dedcut that (those) costs from the commission.

Also, don't forget any profit you make is considered a Capital Gain. The IRS would like you to send them their portion of your profit....and they didn't do anything to help you sell the knife. They are worse than dealers! :D

All that aside Joss. What $400 knife would you buy for a 10 year investment?
 
Hi Bruce,

There are a lot of very talented knife makers out there who are in if for the long haul.

However, there are so many factors that go into an "investment" type knife. That in it for the "long term" is a given.

What type of knife from Nick do you buy? Which materials and why? Regarding Return on Investment (percentage of return per $1 spent) how would you rate his hunters against his bowies? How about Damascus against carbon steel for long term investment.

Bruce, Im not trying to be a smart ass here. I am just trying to gauge how you assign values to invesments.

There is no one forumula. Each of us has to develop our own forumlas. As we each have to determine our own Risk aversion. That is to say how much of the money you invested can you stand to lose before you cut your losses.

Obviously most of us would be much more comfortable risking $400 to $2500.

However, long term you may have been better served buying the $5000 knife instead of the $500 knife.
 
It seems to me, buying knives for monetary return is like the stock market........you better know a lot about where you are putting your money.

and like the stock market, being at the right place at the right time is a key issue.
Having said that, I would look around (probably for a great while considering....) for a very good deal on a Loveless or a Moran.


Of course, with the criteria above, you could find a lot of knives that you could make money on, you just have to know a lot about where you are spending your money, and be in the right place at the right time.
 
I might buy a Loveless for long term investment purposes.

I have seen first hand how everyone's mouth just drops at a knife show when he shows up. When he is no longer with us (may he live forever!), I think you might get a solid return for one of his. However, the current going rate for one of Loveless' knives is pretty high. Will they double or tripple in price when he passes away? Who knows?

IMO, Investing in custom knives is such low probability speculation, especially with how high some of the custom knife prices are from newer, not so popular knifemakers which automatically forces up the popular custom knifemaker's prices even higher (which I think is a false high), that your investment dollars would be much better spent somewhere else.

I like custom knives, but I'll stick to real estate as an investment.:D

Edited to add the word "custom" in front of knife or knives
 
Originally posted by Les Robertson
All that aside Joss. What $400 knife would you buy for a 10 year investment?
Click to expand...

I'd go for Nick Wheeler. His quality is top notch, he's got the right attitude and interpersonal skills (personable but not "slick"), he's young but experienced, he has invested a lot of time and money in accumulating tools and experience many people with a 20 year in the trade don't have. All that tells me that he's in for the long run, and will climb high (barring life changes). Plus, I like dealing with him and I find his stuff pleasurable.

My second pick would be Bailey Bradshaw, a bit for the same reasons - i.e., he's way ahead of the curve given his age, and not very expensive when compared to other makers of similar quality.

Third pick would be Terry Primos. His stuff is top quality, and the only reason why he's not higher up in my ranking is that I haven't seen much variety in his styles and designs yet.

There are other makers with great potential (Todd Begg, Dan Farr,...), but if I had to spend $400 on 1 knife, I would try to go with one of those 3.

What about you Les?

JD
 
Originally posted by tom mayo
It seems to me, buying knives for monetary return is like the stock market........you better know a lot about where you are putting your money.

and like the stock market, being at the right place at the right time is a key issue.
Click to expand...

Portfolio theory can prove that what really matters is to have a diversified portfolio, which is yet one more reason to invest in $400 knives, as it's esier to have a diversified portfolio of $400 knives (10 knives for $4,000) than with $2,500 (not even 2 knives for $4,000).

JD
 
Well I buy knives because I enjoy them. If they make me money then so much the better. I buy from makers that have a good reputation. My range is $400-$1,200. While making money isn't my goal, it has been my experience that I can at least get what I paid for the knives very quickly if I run into financial difficulty or find that I don't like a particular knife anymore.:) ;) :cool: :eek: :p
 
Hi Tom,

Well said.

RWS,

The question is not what is a "better" investment? It is what one knife would you buy as a long term investment?

You have vailid points about new knife maker pricing. Usually, the market takes care of these makers.

Everyone is always looking for a Loveless or a Moran. Which is why it would be difficult to get one at a price that would make it a good long term investment. This is due primarily the inital purchse price.
 
In college I had an economics professor that said in the long run we all die so why plan for the long run. Point being that we really don't know what will happen in 10 years or even 10 minutes. Things worth a lot today might not be worth much tomorrow. Its kinda like my 401K at work. I just put the money in and throw away the statements before I open them. If I make a lot of money great but if not that's ok. I try to enjoy today. I have patients that would gladly pay millions if they could just get out of bed and breathe without a machine. Everything is relative. But anyway just my $.02 and I'm speaking from a collectors point of view. Les really knows what he's talking about and Tom is just a :confused: What is it that you do? Oh yeah I think that Tom is some kind of knifemaker? HAHAHAHA! :D :cool: ;) See you guys in Vegas!!!:D :cool: ;) :p
 
Hi Joss,

The number one $400 knife to buy is a Kit Carson Folder. Yes, there are Carson Folders out there still for $400.

Personally, I don't think it is a wise strategy to buy knives and hold them for 10 years.

To many things can happen in that time frame that could adversly affect the market.

I think a buy and hold for 12 - 24 months is a better strategy. It may take a little more time and effort to get the same ROI. However, you reduce your risk and get to have some fun along the way.

Joss, I like your "portfolio" idea. That is an excellent way to improve your chances of making money.

The custom knife market is always moving in it's cycle. Things that are in demand today will be less favored 12-24 months from now. The good news another type of knife will become in demand.

The key is to know what is going to happen 6 - 12 months from now. Stay in the market for 12-36 months. But always being aware of maturing markets and emerging markets.

The problem with this is that it requires a lot of homework. Most of it away from the net.

I think the Internet gives you an excellent insight as to which makers to sell and never buy from again. If your sole purpose is for investment.
 
I agree with Les that taking a 10 year view is not reasonable. For an example, in 10 years 2 things (and everything in between) can happen: (1) the knife finally acquires its deserved place among all other crafts / arts (glassblowing, jewelry, fine furniture,...), and the market explodes, (2) the knife becomes less and less of a socially acceptable item, and the market shrinks.

Those 2 things would dramatically affect the value of any good quality knife purchased today, and it's impossible to say which way it's going.

BTW, I've had huge success in reselling my knives. Interestingly, some of the highest returns (North of a 100%) were for production stuff (old Al Mar). The only knife on which I clearly lost money was a sweet Tommy Lee boot knife. I made good profits on Don Fogg and Dan Winkler - but the initial purchases had been huge pieces of luck, at prices so far below going rate that I was just plain lucky.

JD
 
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