What one custom would you buy

As an investment I'd say get the ones today that are going for the big money. Not just the latest "Hot" maker. Loveless, Moran,Schmidt,Scagel,etc. They are only going to go up. Although the buy in is spendy,the odds of a return will be in your favor. That being said, buy something you like just in case it doesn't sell and you're stuck with it :D
 
Originally posted by Les Robertson
RWS,

The question is not what is a "better" investment? It is what one knife would you buy as a long term investment?

Everyone is always looking for a Loveless or a Moran.
Click to expand...

As I stated in my post, and because of what you said in yours about "Everyone is always looking for a Loveless" , I would choose a Loveless for a long-term investment. Your right about the high dollar initial investment but, I think after he's gone these knives will bring a good return.

IMO, you are right on about doing a lot of homework in order to turn a knife into profit. That's why knife industry professionals, such as yourself, are much more qualified to answer this type of question.

This much analysis would take some of the fun out of collecting for me, though. However, I have learned, and am fortunate enough to be able, to choose the more desirable knifemakers' knives for my small collection.
 
Damn, this is a question that I am not qualified to answer. I have never looked at investment when I purchase a knife. I buy a knife because I want it, not because I am looking to make money from it.

If I had to pick just one knife, it would be a damascus integral from T.M. Dowell. As a matter of fact, some day I am going to have one. This knife is a classic and even though it doesn't matter to me, I believe that its value will increase greatly in the years to come.

The knife will have have an ancient walrus or elephant bark ivory handle, because I believe that when you order a knife like this you should get the absolute best materials possible.

There are knives that have synthetic handles that have been and are great investments. The use of Micarta by Bob Loveless and Walter Brend are great examples of this.

When choosing a knife, I would pick the style that the maker is most famous for. An example of this is D.E. Henry. If you had picked up one of his bowies in the 70s you would have done very well for yourself. If you would have chosen one of his other styles, it would not have proven to be nearly as good an investment.
 
A fixed blade by Walter Brend. #1 pick = sub-hilt #2. . .high polished blade, hilts and lanyard hole. Exotic wood scales.

Oh. . .and a beautifully crafted leather sheath !
 
my pick..
Fixed-Loveless
Folder- W.D. Pease
User- DMKnives

Overall -Loveless

S/F,
Ceya.
Ceya Knife Designz
 
Maybe 10-years was a litle too long:D

If you stayed in the sub $2,500 market and were to buy just one knife, and buy it strictly to maximize your investment, what one knife what that be and why?

The key is money making and a good investment would be to at least an attempt to double your initial investment.

Are there any Makers out there in this price range that we believe can do this?
 
I know I am not qualified to answer this ..... but nether the less, heres my opinion.

Whilst I earnestly hope that someone will give Wolfman a list of makers whose work will double in value (so I can write them down myself!), my belief is that you will not find a consensus - it will always be a gamble. Admitedly some people are able to study "form", and predict outcomes better than others, thereby reducing the risks - but it is still uncertain.

If it was not uncertain, then given todays free exchange of information, everybody would be buying the "perfect investment knives" - the ones that everyone agrees will increase in value. Soon, however the current price would soon rise to a value whereby future gains are much less.This is a process, which if my memory serves me correctly, is called arbitrage, and applies to all forms of trade and valuation (as advocated by Modigliani and Miller).

Having said all this, scarcity of capital, and also scarcity of supply mean that certain people, with the right funds, at the right time, are able to make killer purchases - but they do this by having information others don't - eg. knowing when a piece is going to be sold and by whom.

Outside of this example I think we all take a calculated risk when we make an investment. The higher the risk the higher the potential returns or the potential losses. So in my mind going with the newer maker with an uncertain future may well offer the highest return if it goes well - but the chances are lower than say buying a Loveless or Moran at todays prices - however here the % increase on the latter will be lower.

In the short to medium term doubling your money is a big return - in my mind it means taking a big risk - which probably means not buying from the maker that everyone thinks will double in value.

The other way to earn a return is to invest in the thing some people are willing to pay a premium for - time. Getting on the list of a maker with a wait of several years means that at some point you will take delivery of a piece other people will have to wait several years for (the key here is that you have taken the chance that the maker will still be as hot when the piece arrives.) many people will pay you a premium over your purchase price to avoid the wait.

...... Oh my what a ramble - I'm going to bed!

Stephen
 
Originally posted by wolfmann601
Maybe 10-years was a litle too long:D

If you stayed in the sub $2,500 market and were to buy just one knife, and buy it strictly to maximize your investment, what one knife what that be and why?

The key is money making and a good investment would be to at least an attempt to double your initial investment.

Are there any Makers out there in this price range that we believe can do this?
Click to expand...

Doubling your money in less than 10 years on a custom knife?
The probability of this would be extremely low, IMO.
I believe the only way this could be accomplished is to be extremely lucky enough to buy a custom knife today from a no name maker and then see him become very popular, very fast and then be smart enough to sell at the high point of his, more than likely, short lived popularity.

This opinion is out of complete ignorance, mind you.

EDITED: adding "custom" in front of "knife"
 
RWS, I would say that is a completely reasonable and logical response to a topic subjected to variables of a changing nature.
 
I was hoping for some names, not consenus.

I like Onions, Blackwoods, and Hinderers, they are my top three investment grade makers.

Oh well.......................
 
If you had bought a TNT from Tom Mayo before he stopped taking orders you would have doubled your investment in about a month. I know this isn't going to happen often, but it does happen.

One young maker who's knives are bound to increase in price is Lloyd Fairbairn. His knives are high quality and low priced. Watch this maker, he has a bright future.

Another is Dan Farr. Really high quality knives and once again, great prices.
 
I have three of Tom's folders. One of which is my daily work knife. They aren't for sale so profit is irrelevant. I would like to get another folder from Tom one of these days.
 
I think a Scott Cook would be a good investment. It's only a matter of time before his waiting list gets 2-3 years long (it's over a year already) or he stops taking orders completely. I can easily see his $460 Lochsa's selling for over $600-$700 on the secondary market in a few years.
 
wolfman,

"Custom Ken Onion", nifrand says it all.

If you go to the Vegas show in January and score in the Onion lotto, then I think you will be able to at least double maybe even triple your investment in about a minute.

I know of an Onion that was purchased just in August in that $2500 range mentioned earlier. The offer that was just turned down today by the owner was for $3500. That's $1k in just a little under 4 months. Not quite doubling your $ but quite a bit better than you'll do with any other maker. In all reality nothing can go up forever, but the end doesn't seem to be in sight yet.
 
Actually, you can make a lot more money on his "regular" customs as they usually cost around $650-750 and can sell for twice as much very easily, if not more. Like a lot of the makers mentioned above, the main reason that fuels higher prices is the lack of availability of the product. Morans and Loveless' have a small limited production that is soon to come to a standstill.

When you look at the makers that stand out as investment grade knives, the length of their knifemaking career and production output are one thing, but the other feature that sets these apart is their innovation. Ken, along with Bill Moran and Bob Loveless, are innovators and that increases the demand for their product dramatically.
 
And on the low end of the scale is a small maker like John Greco, whose working knives have ALWAYS been the most inexpensive true customs. Now he has failing muscular health and is stopping all his production, so he's closing out his existing stock.

I just bought three of his new knives for less than $150. How can I lose? It's a penny stock to be sure, but an increase is an increase. I'll see.

This has been a very good dialog. :)

Coop
 
Since I only play in the forged fixed-blade sand box, I’ll limit my comments to that category.

Among the bladesmiths who have not yet attained their Master Smith credentials, the following are safe bets: Russ Andrews, Dan Farr, Terry Primos, Nick Wheeler. Among this group Russ makes by far the fewest knives per year, which is a factor that can cut both ways in terms of future value. But the quality is so evident, and his prices so reasonable, that I’d recommend getting on his list and grabbing any one of his knives you see turn up on the secondary market.

I’ll leave out the category of Master Smiths (and well-established bladesmiths who never sought the ABS designation) where choices are plentiful except for two observations: 1) you’d have to try hard to lose money on a Fisk knife (there’s a news flash), and 2) I’ll echo Joss’s less-obvious recommendation of Bailey Bradshaw. I own / have owned several of Bailey's knives, and after each purchase felt like I got a lot more than I paid for. Combine solid value with excellent craftsmanship; a diverse resume of past work; a continuing commitment to improvement and truly first-rate customer service / communication and that's a pretty good predictor for solid investment value in my book. There are many other factors which can impact on investment value to be sure. But those qualities provide a darn good foundation.

Cheers,

Roger
 
Actually, I like one of Ed Fowler's pronghorns and also one of Steve Filicetti's damascus bowies.

Got to check with my accountant first. :D
 
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