What's the deal with GEC?

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Any watch enthusiast will tell you this has been happening with Rolex and Patek for the last several years. Secondary prices at 3 times retail prices for many Rolexes & Pateks. And accusations flew that authorized dealers were selling them "out the back door" to grey dealers well above retail.

And grey dealers weren't talking. The frenzy made these coveted watches in higher demand. People from China, Russia, etc. wanted these Veblen goods. Covid brought prices down a smidge, but the demand remains strong.

And many US buyers - millennials and younger - were the ones who boasted that watches were obsolete. Now the people who signaled the end of the watch are collectors.

Finally, I disclose that I own a Patek and Rolex. Both were bought before the skyrocketing prices. The wife jokingly (maybe) suggested I sell the Patek at a huge profit, but I bought it because I liked it. :eek:

Oh, for anyone interested Chrono24 is the website dealers and regular people check for prices, new and used, for most watch brands. Dealers worldwide list their watches on Chrono24.
 
r8shell said:
For the record:
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If one that I want is available at original retail price, I'll buy it. Unfortunately that happens less and less often. Oh well, life goes on.
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Yep, used to be you would build a collection. Now if you’ve got a ton of $ you can just immediately buy one and then play “Show and Tell” here on the Forum. 🙁
 
knifeswapper said:
They average @120 knives/day production. They have a very strong following because nice traditional knives made by human hands are very hard to find these days. There are some flippers, my guess would be 5% of total sales are flipped by customers buying and flipping. Another @10% (guess) are sold at >retail prices by dealers on eBay. The rest are sold by dealers to customers that want this style of knife while they are still accessible in the market. Most production runs are 1000-2000pcs; split between @4 variations. So 250-500 of each variation with @1000 customers that will take one of each for their collections / rotations. Many of those loyal customers have done the legwork to figure out how each dealer distributes their allocation and have tuned a process to acquire what they want. To those that have not put in the effort, it does look like a good old boy or secret handshake network. And the one thing everyone new to the market thinks, if not says in public, is that is all for inflated prices or the perceived market hype.

But, if you take the time to understand the market - there is no problem picking them up. Some do not consider it worth the hassle. I pay attention to who is buying and surprisingly a high percentage of steadfast buyers always get at least one on drops. Around 25% are folks that show up fairly often as they get them where they can. Finally around 25% are new names of people that just took the time to figure it all out.

There was a day where they would make 25-50 of each variant and they would sit on my shelves for weeks or months. But, now that they have been discovered, everyone wants them to change their staffing / process to accommodate the market. Even when they tried - there was still many cons expressed by customers. They are making as many as they can in a quality fashion by cutlers trained by Bill himself to insure the product does not suffer. It is not a lucrative paying job, so there is a lot of turnover. And the company realizes that everyone hired during the boom, will need to be let go during the bust. And nobody wants to turn their friends/families out.
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Can I just say, “Thank you.” for taking the time to write up such a detailed description of the current market. I’m fairly new to this game, but this lines up almost exactly with what I’ve found. If you’re willing to put in the time and effort to actually pay attention to the authorized retailers, you’ll learn how they do things, where they stand against other retailers, and you’ll probably get about a 60-70% success rate on the ones you REALLY decide to go for. Not a bad batting average when you consider the general public consider them to be ununtainable.

TL;DR - watch things for a few months… REALLY watch them… pay attention, and then go for the ones you want when you feel you understand how things work.
 
Locutus D'Borg said:
Any watch enthusiast will tell you this has been happening with Rolex and Patek for the last several years. Secondary prices at 3 times retail prices for many Rolexes & Pateks. And accusations flew that authorized dealers were selling them "out the back door" to grey dealers well above retail.

And grey dealers weren't talking. The frenzy made these coveted watches in higher demand. People from China, Russia, etc. wanted these Veblen goods. Covid brought prices down a smidge, but the demand remains strong.

And many US buyers - millennials and younger - were the ones who boasted that watches were obsolete. Now the people who signaled the end of the watch are collectors.

Finally, I disclose that I own a Patek and Rolex. Both were bought before the skyrocketing prices. The wife jokingly (maybe) suggested I sell the Patek at a huge profit, but I bought it because I liked it. :eek:

Oh, for anyone interested Chrono24 is the website dealers and regular people check for prices, new and used, for most watch brands. Dealers worldwide list their watches on Chrono24.
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A few Rolex dealers(don't know about Patek) have been caught, some photographed even, selling their stock to grey market dealers for, what is assumed, inflated prices, all the while writing down customers names on imaginary "waiting list". I was in the market to purchase an Explorer II, but this is disgusting behavior as far as I'm concerned, so I cancelled that plan indefinitely, and now I'm happy I did.

But if I'm to believe what I'm reading here, it's even worst with GEC dealers since they appear to sell their stock directly on ebay, bypassing the middle man and throwing the fingers at their customers.

But in both case I find them fascinating sociological behavior, absolutely fascinating.

Me personnaly, I have no horse in this race, the patern I wanted(a Wharncliffe swayback before anybody ask)I found in Case catalog, I ordered that and I'll be more than happy with it.
 
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Lesknife said:
The flipping got it started then the dealers followed in kind. Greed simple and short! No other way to put it !
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Although I can't disagree with what you say generally, I would like to add a little context. GEC's were not an easy sell for nearly a decade. Until the larger retailers started noticing them, the customer base was rather limited. But, a handful of years ago the market grew past the production. This caused a rush on drops and an increase in re-sell values; which brought in the flippers and some dealers.

There was a time (less than 10 years ago) when I would have 100+ GEC's in stock at any given time. I even got suspended from GEC when I offered free shipping with GEC's to help me move them when I got in a financial bind. I could call GEC and buy all I could eat from the factory inventory. Times have changed. But, if things tighten up in our economy, they will change again. The eBay market has already started tightening up a bit and if expendable income contracts I expect it to nearly dry up completely. But, like everything else, when the government is handing out free money - people are going to find some place to spend it. Most people, if they think about it for a minute, have it much easier than they deserve. I'm not saying we don't work for what we have. I just wouldn't want to be forced to work 12+ hours a day just to put food on the table like my parents / grandparents / etc.


dsutton24 said:
Greed.

Every time this subject comes up many people are quick to point out the greed of the dealers who sell their stock at exorbitant prices. Then comes the evils of Flipping. Those evil flippers, they have no appreciation of the knives they are trafficking in, it's all about money for these scoundrels.

Somehow or another we forget another greed, the greed of the buying public. I need that knife, I'm deserving because my need is pure. I was buying these knives before they were cool. It's not fair!

Whatever the motivation greed is greed. The market wouldn't look like it does if there wasn't a demand for the product. Manufacturers position themselves in a market, and how they position themselves is partially a conscious choice. Sometimes the market decides who succeeds or fails.

If you just have to have something scarce you have to pay whatever the market demands. A knife can be an important tool, and the chance of survival can be greatly improved if you have a suitable blade at your disposal. Let's face it, though, in the case of a real need any blade is likely to be better than no blade. Nobody is going to face mortal danger from the lack of the latest GEC offering.

Perspective.
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After they started getting popular, more than once I had someone call me up with a story about how they wanted to get one for them and their dad because it was a pattern they both loved. So, I would sell them two. Then I would see both show up on eBay. The thing about dishonest folks is that they are never the ones you feel like are being dishonest. They have honed their craft.

The buyers that have been around of 15 years are aggravated but grateful they had free access to them in the early years. The newer buyers are aggravated about the market conditions caused by the newer buyers. Me personally, I am waiting for the other shoe to drop. I feel like there is a good chance that the factory may not be able to sell them at a price where they can make money and the customer can afford them in a year or two. The raw materials will be getting much more expensive at the same time people are figuring out they only really NEED on pocket knife. And since there are only a handful of American slipjoint makers still profitable, I expect them to go the way of the dodo within a decade. Hoping not, but concerned.
 
hooman_m said:
the irony is if they make more of them to be more accessible it will probably hurt the desirability
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We all have a lifetime before we need to worry about that.

The only instant remedy is an economic crash. But that would have too many side effects.
 
hooman_m said:
the irony is if they make more of them to be more accessible it will probably hurt the desirability
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Damned if you do and damned if you don't... Remember the Beer Scouts? They made @1000 in 2015 and were met with many aggravated customers due to their popularity. So the next run, they made nearly 4000 (took 2 months of production). People didn't like that they dedicated 1/6th of the years production to them. Then they sat in dealer inventory for a few months. But once they were gone, there was a lot of complaints about how they didn't make enough of them. This was about the time the demand grew past the production capacity.... It is impossible to know the right thing to do - if it exist.
 
knifeswapper said:
Damned if you do and damned if you don't... Remember the Beer Scouts? They made @1000 in 2015 and were met with many aggravated customers due to their popularity. So the next run, they made nearly 4000 (took 2 months of production). People didn't like that they dedicated 1/6th of the years production to them. Then they sat in dealer inventory for a few months. But once they were gone, there was a lot of complaints about how they didn't make enough of them. This was about the time the demand grew past the production capacity.... It is impossible to know the right thing to do - if it exist.
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Mike I get your point. Is it reasonable to require that dealers must first offer them for sale on their sites? 🤷
 
knifeswapper said:
Many of those loyal customers have done the legwork to figure out how each dealer distributes their allocation and have tuned a process to acquire what they want. To those that have not put in the effort, it does look like a good old boy or secret handshake network...

But, if you take the time to understand the market - there is no problem picking them up.
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I don't doubt you that some people have no problem picking up what they want. I haven't ever figured out the process though. For a couple of years I signed up with dealers and pretty assiduously followed the drops. I eventually landed 2 knives a year or so apart. Both seemed like incredible strokes of luck. Many times, I had a knife in my cart, credit card info already entered in before the drop, and between 2-clicks the knife had sold out.

On the plus side, I'm really happy with the ones I have, and this year's Bunny Knife is fantastic.

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knifeswapper said:
Damned if you do and damned if you don't... Remember the Beer Scouts? They made @1000 in 2015 and were met with many aggravated customers due to their popularity. So the next run, they made nearly 4000 (took 2 months of production). People didn't like that they dedicated 1/6th of the years production to them. Then they sat in dealer inventory for a few months. But once they were gone, there was a lot of complaints about how they didn't make enough of them. This was about the time the demand grew past the production capacity.... It is impossible to know the right thing to do - if it exist.
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I only want stuff I can't buy.
 
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