Trends and pricing are very interesting topic.
Pricing may be the question Im asked most by makers. As in what should this cost?
There is a pretty simple forumla for figuring cost.
However, this simple formula must take into affect long term productivity. This is what is difficult for most of us to predict.
Generally, when I am pricing knives, for example the Vanguard Knives, I look about 5 years into the future.
Dealers have an advantage over makers in that we get to look at a lot more knives. Consequently, we get to compare quality and price. This is especially true when we get to judge at shows.
I know, because of judging I have sought out makers and at the same time have decided against working with some makers as their work was overpriced.
Pricing has an impact on both the maker and the collector. The maker has to get enough for the knife to make his business profitable. At the same time the buyer has to be able to assess if the maker is charging a fair price within the totality of that market.
You as the collector have to be able to weigh the makers long term desirablity, their price vs actual cost, the short term and long term "turn and burn" cost, is this maker a trend setter or merely a follower.
Is this trend that is being embarked on a trend or a fad. Fad's are relatively short lived. Six to nine months for most. Remember the Wharncliffe/Hawkbill blade.
Smart move would been to have bought early in the fad and sold or traded the knife before the market matured and death set in.
This of course would have limited your turn and burn cost. Possibly resulting in you making a few bucks on the deal.
Trends are not so easy to spot. Very few have access to enough "players" to know when a trend is about to start or has started.
Generally, when you read about it in the Knife magazines, the trend has been underway for 4-6 months. Typically, most consumers prefer to adopt a wait and see attitude about any product.
Ever wonder why when you pay for gas or go to a convience store. Up at the counter the display near the cash register always has a few of whatever it is missing. You think to yourself, you would think that employee standing right next to that display all day would fill it up. Wrong. The object is to make you think that others have bought this item.
This marketing technique is what brings in the 70% of the consumers that buy most of the things out there. There is always the initial 10%, the "risk takers". Then you will have 20% that will not buy no matter what. That's B-School theory, but it seems to be a correct generalization of selling to the US consumer.
So what does this have to do with you and custom knives. If you want to make a little money at this hobby, do your homework and become a risk taker.
If you guess right, you will be in a great position to sell or trade your knife as the other 70% consider what you have already bought.
The down side, you take a risk that backfires. But if for every 20 risks you only lose money 5 times. Your still ahead and you had some great knives.
I do realize that there are those who will never sell any of their knives. Believe it or not I was the same way once. Then the knock came at my door about 10PM one evening while I was stationed at Ft. Campbell. Seems 11 "gentlemen" were in need of some cutlery as they were deploying for parts unknown in the early am. I had 23 knives, they bought 22.
Part of me was sad to see some of my knives that I anquished over for months both in deciding on them and waiting for delivery.
The other part of me was glade. For I knew I had made some purchasing mistakes within that group of knives. Now was my chance to take the money, learn from my mistakes and get better quality knives. That is exactly what I did. Ok, and my wife got a dishwasher out of it as well.
Trends are always interesting. With so many categories out there, new makers and new materials. It's tough to spot them early on.
As always, buy what you like! But do your homework, spend your money wisely and enjoy the "hunt".
Sorry about the tangent!
------------------
Les Robertson
www.robertsoncustomcutlery.com
Custom Knife Entrepreneur
