Where does Supply/Demand equalize? Suvive Year+ leadtimes

hhmoore said:
Speaking as an outsider (do not own a Survive! knive), I balked at the TBD wait time with a preorder...even though I had been awaiting the production announcement for some time. To be clear, I have purchased knives with wait periods - it's not a big deal when the maker doesn't require payment in advance; but it becomes a different animal when one has to pay up front. In one example from my personal experiences, I paid a 50% (nonrefundable) deposit - to the tune of about $375 - for a knife with a projected wait time of 1 yr. In two weeks, it will be 3 yrs. I have totally lost interest in the knife, and would never consider purchasing from this maker again.
Even with acknowledging/accepting that some of Survive's previous problems are in the past, I think my reluctance is understandable. It isn't that I would worry about losing my money, or never getting the knife, with Survive!; I'm just not willing to finance a production run with so many question marks involved. Maybe if I was a dedicated fan, I would view it differently...but I've never even seen a Survive! knife in person.
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I completely understand your point of view. To be honest, I don't know if I would be willing to sign up for this same deal. Probably, if I knew the product was good and had some extra money. But it would be something I would have to mull over for a few weeks. A lot of folks, especially here on the forums, take the time to learn a bit about the company and read the whole product page. Ultimately, the decision is up to the person hitting the submit order button. If they change their mind later, we issue a refund.

I do wish it made sense to not charge up front for the preorder, but even if we only charge 50% we still have the same admin headaches as if we were to charge nothing. Which would require a lot more time, ultimately raising the prices. We aren't a small knife maker taking in 20 or 30 orders over a few weeks. We are dealing with hundreds of people every time we open up ordering. I would love to go back and grow more organically, but the past is the past.

ni1s said:
Wow, first of all thank you for taking time to write about your plans! I think it sounds like a good plan, but I can't help to come with one idea and a bit of feedback. :)

First, about sharpening. You might have thought about it already, but wouldn't it be possible to have a sharpener-apprentice for part of the SK line? Guy is awesome, and I doubt he'll ever find anyone good enough, but this way he could train someone and keep the cost down for the SK line, and also communicate it with the customers.

Second, release on Mondays is very similar to the fiddleback Friday's, and thank you so much thinking of us international customers!! But it still scares me a bit, I'd hate to see a scalping situation where everyone have to pay a hefty premium on the exchange instead. Would it be possible to limit it to one knife per model per person per month or so? I guess that's even more admin for you, but I'm just voicing my concern.

What I like about the preorders is that I'm guaranteed to get the knife, even if it takes time. So I'll be sure to preorder all the rest of the knives too... ;)

Thanks again Ellie!
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The sharpening thing is already a tentative plan. It is just a matter of finding the right person and getting the SK Series up and running at full steam.

I didn't realize that Fiddleback did a similar thing until it was briefly mentioned in the speculations thread. It was a relief to know that it isn't a totally new concept, hopefully there won't be as much hate mail as expected. :)

I'm not sure where it started but the idea that most of our knives are bought by a few to resell to the many is a common misconception. In reality, most of our orders are for one knife. I don't believe limiting orders will change anything. Even if we tried to control the handful of people who buy 3-4 knives in an order, they will just check out as a guest 3-4 times instead.

The guarantee is definitely what would sway me to place a preorder. Either way, we are making larger batches and there has been a much lower percentage of Factory 2nds. Hopefully that will help with more regular availability.
 
The supply demand curve will equalize when the back log is neither increasing nor decreasing. That would mean the price / wait time has found the balance point against the limited supply / capacity. If the backlog or wait times keep increasing, then it hasn't reached that balance point yet.
 
Ellie,
Thanks for taking the time to respond. I have worked with sales,customers, vendors, projects,product and deadlines for 20+ years at a small engineering company. I recognize and appreciate the OCD level of perfection you put into your product. I was buying a nice collection Barkies when I stumbled upon my first GSO 5.1 and it's been love and en every growing GSO collection ever since.
Hats off and wishing you great continued success in 2016 and years to come!
 
Ellie, thank you for your continued communication and feedback. It makes all the difference in the world, to me anyway.

Fiddleback Forge only sells directly to customers on BF, and then only in their Fiddleback Friday sales thread. They have some hand picked dealers that they also sell through. The Fiddleback sales thread lists specific knives for sale, and the first "I'll take it" gets that knife. Usually there is no more than one or two representatives of any given model on any given Friday. Andy has a lot of different models, all of which are hand ground and the handles are hand made. Typically there are 25 to 35 knives for sale each Friday. They do nothing in batches except for thir Mid-Tech line, and these are predominantly sold through dealers. The Friday sales thread is also known as the shark tank as it is often a feeding frenzy. Not sure the same model will work for you as you do production in batches. But, selling knives on Monday that are made and ready to go does make a lot of sense.

I am confident that you guys will figure this out, and please know that I am, and will continue to be, behind the exceptional products that you guys make.
 
I got a 4.1 and liked it so when the pre-order came available I decided to get a 4.7. For me it came down to: 1) I like the product. 2)Guy and Ellie seem sincere enough in wanting to get the business off the ground. I also knew that the 4.7 would be one of the first ones produced and have a shorter wait time than some.

That being said, Guy could make the best knife in the world and still suck at business. For sure there are concerns about whether or not they'll be able to keep Survive alive. I decided to buy a knife on pre-order but I wouldn't spend more than I'm willing to lose. Like someone else said, a lot can happen in a year (or 8 months). Even a fairly minor accident or illness could result in Survive being shuttered and my pre-order going poof.

Of course I hope/believe that Survive will be successful. Hope for the best but prepare for the worst.
 
Speaking from a good deal of experience, trying to train someone to use a grinder or sander can be a freaking exercise in frustration. It takes patience, practice, and skill and some people quite simply just do not have the aptitude for it no matter how much practice time they get. Materials cost money, training people costs lots of money, mistakes cost time and money. My solution was pretty simple, if anyone else touches the sander but me then I get to chop their fingers off. I'm still looking for a better solution to that problem. :D
 
Its a shame they left Gettysburg, PA... Its about an hour from my house and I freehand sharpen all my neighbors kitchen knives on a slack belt. All my edges are mirror polished, convex and shave better than a gillette mach 3. When I saw that sharpening jig system that guy has, I was jealous. Has to be way easier than free hand. I would have worked for new knives!!!

Skystorm said:
Speaking from a good deal of experience, trying to train someone to use a grinder or sander can be a freaking exercise in frustration. It takes patience, practice, and skill and some people quite simply just do not have the aptitude for it no matter how much practice time they get. Materials cost money, training people costs lots of money, mistakes cost time and money. My solution was pretty simple, if anyone else touches the sander but me then I get to chop their fingers off. I'm still looking for a better solution to that problem. :D
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Riz2530 said:
Its a shame they left Gettysburg, PA... Its about an hour from my house and I freehand sharpen all my neighbors kitchen knives on a slack belt. All my edges are mirror polished, convex and shave better than a gillette mach 3. When I saw that sharpening jig system that guy has, I was jealous. Has to be way easier than free hand. I would have worked for new knives!!!
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I would have loved to help out (i'm an ok sweeper haha)... I don't blame them for moving, but man I wish I had found them before they did.
 
Riz2530 said:
Its a shame they left Gettysburg, PA... Its about an hour from my house and I freehand sharpen all my neighbors kitchen knives on a slack belt. All my edges are mirror polished, convex and shave better than a gillette mach 3. When I saw that sharpening jig system that guy has, I was jealous. Has to be way easier than free hand. I would have worked for new knives!!!
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First, it's good to be an Idahoan. :) Second, where did you see the sharpening jig?
 
Hard Knocks said:
Hi man. Good to see you here. The two Survives I've had have been very good.
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Do I know you (or do you know me)?

SURVIVE! Ellie said:
A lot of folks, especially here on the forums, take the time to learn a bit about the company and read the whole product page.
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That's almost insulting, lol. I've taken a fair amount of time to learn about the company (I did reference past problems, so I've been looking for some time), and I reviewed the product page (the entire site, to be honest). Admittedly, it's been a while...after much deliberation, I opted not to make purchase during the big preorder period for the new models; and I've had no reason to return.
I meant no offense by my earlier post - I was simply responding to a posted question.
I fully understand the logic behind Survive's current business model, and I don't doubt the quality of the knives. The handle revisions look to be a significant improvement :thumbup:
 
hhmoore said:
That's almost insulting, lol. I've taken a fair amount of time to learn about the company (I did reference past problems, so I've been looking for some time), and I reviewed the product page (the entire site, to be honest). Admittedly, it's been a while...after much deliberation, I opted not to make purchase during the big preorder period for the new models; and I've had no reason to return.
I meant no offense by my earlier post - I was simply responding to a posted question.
I fully understand the logic behind Survive's current business model, and I don't doubt the quality of the knives. The handle revisions look to be a significant improvement :thumbup:
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I apologize, I was by no means suggesting you hadn't researched us. I actually had to reread our posts a couple times to realize what could have been insulting. That sentence was part of a thought process about preordering in general, not a direct stab at anyone. It was originally followed by a line about how some customers do order without knowing what they are getting into. I couldn't get it to flow into the next sentence about the refunding. Sorry the sentiment got lost in type, or lack there of in this case.
 
No worries, Ellie, I didn't take it as anything other than what you intended...I'm not that thin skinned (usually).
 
Skystorm said:
Speaking from a good deal of experience, trying to train someone to use a grinder or sander can be a freaking exercise in frustration. It takes patience, practice, and skill and some people quite simply just do not have the aptitude for it no matter how much practice time they get. Materials cost money, training people costs lots of money, mistakes cost time and money. My solution was pretty simple, if anyone else touches the sander but me then I get to chop their fingers off. I'm still looking for a better solution to that problem. :D
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I will add to your comment about grinders that when you are sharpening the knife you are holding a pretty expensive piece of steel, and if it becomes scrap you've just lost a lot of added value. It is much better to make scrap (if you are going to make it at all) early in the manufacturing process when you don't have so many operations invested in it. So, if Guy is a bit sensitive about who sharpens his knives there are some good reasons for it in my opinion. :)
 
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Look up ' SURVIVE KNIVES M390 ABUSE DEMO ' I think that's what your looking for. Couldn't get it to copy and paste for me.
 
Thanks man. I took a look. Can't see all of the system, but I definitely get the idea. I don't believe I've seen it done with that exact setup before.
 
I read this ENTIRE thread before posting. First, I commend the majority on the cordial manner of dealing with this potentially sensitive and volatile topic. Second, Ellie... You're a class act. You and Guy have given unprecedented access to us into your business, and I for one don't expect that... But it is true to form... You guys consistently over deliver, both by your superb product and your unmatched customer interaction.

One poster noted that he was was not willing to "give an interest free loan" to a company. Another poster said an investor expects to receive back many times their investment... In actuality, a 10% ROI is a great long-term investment, but I digress. Suffice it to say, most "investors" expect a reasonable ROR, not a multiple of their investment premium.

These sentiments were correctly rebutted by stating the "Starter" knives were offered with free upgrades, so depending on the scale materials, bow drill divots, ferro notches, and free shipping... that's somewhere around a 5-15% savings. "A penny saved is a penny earned," savvy investors.

Now... To the would-be economists in this thread, I'm going to bring up a point I don't recall if anyone stated directly. Aside from the above mentioned value added upgrades, and the freebies shipping with Starters, by placing a preorder, you won't be paying a premium in the secondary market. You could say that's a 10-50% savings, depending on supply/demand after the runs of each model sell out. Or you can wait for another run, but "time is money". What is yours worth?

If you add all of this into the equation, I'd say that's a pretty great ROI, plus the intrinsic value of owning a fabulous piece of American made cutlery.

It is interesting to note that the dissenting opinions were offered by people many who don't yet own a S!K product, DragFree being the exception.

Cheers, family.
 
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