Which Categories are HOT? & What’s Next?

[Bladeandbarrel]

First Blood and Rambo knives are on the comeback

 

[Kevin Jones]

STeven, Kevin,

What are you guys basing the prediction of the "rise of the dagger" upon? Don't get me wrong - I'm not presenting an opposing view - just wondering what you guys are relying on to support that conclusion.

You'll always see daggers at Blade - particularly on the table of ABS MS testers such as Jason Knight. For a great majority of Master Smiths, their test quillion dagger is the last dagger they make. And even for those who make a couple more, such knives are waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay in the minority as compared with bowies, camp knives, hunters and even folders.

STeven correctly points out that these things are a PITA to pull off properly (one of the reasons it is a MS requirement). They take longer to make and are pretty much only produced in fully decked-out trim - the result being that they are, as a group, pretty darned expensive knives. Don't see too many "field grade" daggers out there. The larger the average price of any particular group of knives, the smaller the buyer base. So where is this increase in popularity going to come from?

Roger

PS - Like Peter, it seems like every second maker I talk to is getting into slippies.

Unfortunately Roger, I don't have the years of experience that STeven has to have development a "gut" feeling that's usually on the money so I base my prediction for "the rise of the dagger" on my observations of not just these beautiful recent daggers being produced by the likes of Hanson, Erickson, Knight, Sfreddo, JD Smith and others but by enthusiast's excitement and their reaction to these daggers.

Seems like daggers are drawing much more attention at the shows, than the normal glance of a year or so ago. Even when posted here, it seems they are receiving more print and hits.
And to your test dagger point Roger, the "MS" daggers seemed to get more attention this year in the room after the Blade judging than in past years.

I also buy into STeven's theory in that perhaps some of your long time Bowie collectors are venturing into the daggers a bit.

Anyway, it will be interesting to see what's is store for the future regarding many aspects of custom knives.

 

[notdos]

Upgraded or "fancy" tactical will continue to be hot.

 

[Walking Man]

Upgraded or "fancy" tactical will continue to be hot.

I definitely agree there, IMO "tacticals" are some of the best knives for ergonomics and all around use. You can open and close them quickly. And sometimes..... You just want a little MOP and damascus on your user!

 

[jdm61]

What do you guys think about where the fixed blade user market is going? I know that the tactical guys seem to be doing rather well if the line at the Busse table at Blade is any indication.

 

[Kevin Jones]

What do you guys think about where the fixed blade user market is going? I know that the tactical guys seem to be doing rather well if the line at the Busse table at Blade is any indication.

Joe, I just have to wonder, outside of the kitchen, how many opportunities does the average person have to use or carry a fixed-blade knife these days? Thus is the user fixed-blade knife going to succumb to the folder at some point?

 

[Don Hanson III]

First Blood and Rambo knives are on the comeback

Survival Knives :thumbup::thumbup::thumbup:

I got caught up in the craze back in the eighties but only made one

 

[RogerP]

Unfortunately Roger, I don't have the years of experience that STeven has to have development a "gut" feeling that's usually on the money so I base my prediction for "the rise of the dagger" on my observations of not just these beautiful recent daggers being produced by the likes of Hanson, Erickson, Knight, Sfreddo, JD Smith and others but by enthusiast's excitement and their reaction to these daggers.

Seems like daggers are drawing much more attention at the shows, than the normal glance of a year or so ago. Even when posted here, it seems they are receiving more print and hits.
And to your test dagger point Roger, the "MS" daggers seemed to get more attention this year in the room after the Blade judging than in past years.

I also buy into STeven's theory in that perhaps some of your long time Bowie collectors are venturing into the daggers a bit.

Anyway, it will be interesting to see what's is store for the future regarding many aspects of custom knives.

Well, you may be right and I certainly don't dispute that STeven's "gut" feelings have value - that's a pretty well-developed gut, if you get my meaning.

That said, I don't see a handfull well-received daggers posted on the forums and (how do you quantify that?) "more attention" paid to daggers post-judging as particularly strong indicators of daggers becoming anything more than what they have been for a long time - a comparatively small niche group in the custom knife landscape.

Could bowie collectors become saturated with the genre and move to daggers? Sure - in the sense that anything is possible. But is there any indication that a) bowie collectors are becoming saturated with the genre or, more significantly, b) that they are transitioning into daggers - as opposed to any other type of knife or sword - as an alternative? It's a big step from "possible" to "probable", and an even bigger step from "prbable" to "it's happening as we speak".

Balance agianst that the factors of cost, practicality and legality - which all have operated to keep daggers low-volume, and which all remain - and I'm just not seeing daggers as an emerging "hot" group. Are makers reporting getting more orders for daggers? Are daggers appearing to be any more active in the secondary market (where they are comparatively non-existent when measured against bowies, hunters, fighters, folders, tacticals)? Are we seeing more daggers on dealer sites than we have in the past? Are daggers cropping up left and right in knife publications? Heck, are daggers being discussed anywhere on the forums other than on this thread?

I can accept that STeven's gut feeling may prove out - he has a much broader range of experience in the custom knife field than my much more focussed (read limited) experience. But STeven properly acknowledges that it is a gut feeling - nothing more. And when I look for any empirical indicators that might support the "rise of the dagger" - that is also what I see: nothing more.

Roger

 

[RogerP]

Joe, I just have to wonder, outside of the kitchen, how many opportunities does the average person have to use or carry a fixed-blade knife these days? Thus is the user fixed-blade knife going to succumb to the folder at some point?

I don't claim to be making a market prediction with this observation, but all of my using knives are small forged fixed blades. I have one in my car, one in my wife's car, one in my desk at home, one in my desk at the office, one in the tool box etc. They all see use, from gardening to cutting down carboard boxes for the recycling bin, to opening the mail. I don't own a folder.

Roger

 

[SharpByCoop]

I'm likin' the dagger proposition. Funny how a bowie is 'safer' and more useful than a dagger. He he he! Right.... Maybe as Camp Knives.

All the most collectible knives are, for all intents and purposes, useless in our modern urban society. Peter, getting caught in possession of a dagger on the street would be judged more harshly than carrying a subhilt fighter? Or a big honkin© bowie? Preposterous.

Back to the questions asked: Clean Loveless tribute knives are hot. But the bar has been raised fairly high. They have to be REAL crisp. Loveless crisp. :thumbup:

Well-made multiblades are even more complex than daggers. Incredible how precise they are. I find them THE most shake-your-head-in disbelief engineered pieces. How DO they do that?

Killer hamons are now the 'rule'. Don't bring out anything but your 'A' game.

Tacticools: Exotic materials, whether born in from space age science or with 50,000 year old ivory are getting great airtime. Multiple usage and seemless fitment of dissimilar materials. Freestyle carvings have been all the rage for the past couple of years. That's a passing trend as I see it, and the next level will be more detail and out-the-box thinking, but handworked. I can't wait for the 'pimped' with a Dremel look to be done and over with. It just screams out 'mediocre' creativity. That's me.

And then guys like Tai Goo, Daniel Winkler, and Chuck Burrows will step in with an old-world and organic knife that will calm all our sensibilities and make us enjoy the roots of our craft. Again and again.

There's my gut feelings.

Coop

 

[Kevin Jones]

Well, you may be right and I certainly don't dispute that STeven's "gut" feelings have value - that's a pretty well-developed gut, if you get my meaning.

That said, I don't see a handfull well-received daggers posted on the forums and (how do you quantify that?) "more attention" paid to daggers post-judging as particularly strong indicators of daggers becoming anything more than what they have been for a long time - a comparatively small niche group in the custom knife landscape.

Could bowie collectors become saturated with the genre and move to daggers? Sure - in the sense that anything is possible. But is there any indication that a) bowie collectors are becoming saturated with the genre or, more significantly, b) that they are transitioning into daggers - as opposed to any other type of knife or sword - as an alternative? It's a big step from "possible" to "probable", and an even bigger step from "prbable" to "it's happening as we speak".

Balance agianst that the factors of cost, practicality and legality - which all have operated to keep daggers low-volume, and which all remain - and I'm just not seeing daggers as an emerging "hot" group. Are makers reporting getting more orders for daggers? Are daggers appearing to be any more active in the secondary market (where they are comparatively non-existent when measured against bowies, hunters, fighters, folders, tacticals)? Are we seeing more daggers on dealer sites than we have in the past? Are daggers cropping up left and right in knife publications? Heck, are daggers being discussed anywhere on the forums other than on this thread?

I can accept that STeven's gut feeling may prove out - he has a much broader range of experience in the custom knife field than my much more focussed (read limited) experience. But STeven properly acknowledges that it is a gut feeling - nothing more. And when I look for any empirical indicators that might support the "rise of the dagger" - that is also what I see: nothing more.

Roger

WoW
Too much coffee

 

[Joss]

You know, I get the (very subjective, unverified) feeling when looking at the last 20 years + of Knife Annual that although F&F has improved tremendously, and "good tastes" have made much progress, creativity in designs has diminished. Fantasy knives, even the high quality stuff in the class of Hudson, Fogg, England, etc, have become very rare indeed these last few years.

 

[Kevin Jones]

Joe, I just have to wonder, outside of the kitchen, how many opportunities does the average person have to use or carry a fixed-blade knife these days? Thus is the user fixed-blade knife going to succumb to the folder at some point?

I don't claim to be making a market prediction with this observation, but all of my using knives are small forged fixed blades. I have one in my car, one in my wife's car, one in my desk at home, one in my desk at the office, one in the tool box etc. They all see use, from gardening to cutting down carboard boxes for the recycling bin, to opening the mail. I don't own a folder.

Roger

Roger, note I said "average person".
I would venture that neither you nor I would be considered "average" when it comes to our love for knives and finding a way to put them to use.

 

[jdm61]

With the rise in popularity of slipjoints, I wonder if we might see an increase in demand for more traditional looking fixed blade users. One can't help but notice that in the gun market, there has been a revival of traditional type firearms like the 1911, Winchester Model 70 and it's clones from Kimber, Dakota, etc, and double shotguns. Even Remington, the kings of push-feed bolt actions, is supposedly coming out with a controlled feed rifle based on the good old Mauser 98. Now with the exception of the 1911's, this is still a small part of the market compared to all of the Glocks, Sigs, composite stock rifles,etc, etc, but it is a much more substantial portion than it was 20 years ago. Do you guys think that there might be some demand down the road for more traditional field kives? I see Scott Gossman and Idaho Knife Works running ads in every issue of TK.....those ads are not cheap, and Scott tells me that his is working very well with the outdorrsmen who read that mag. I also wonder if there is anything on the horizon in the US that might be similar to the bushcraft craze in the UK.

 

[Bladeandbarrel]

There is a continuum of collecting that everyone follows. In knife collecting it can go something like this.

1) Go to sporting goods store to look at high priced guns.
2) See lots of cool, inexpensive knves.
3) Buy a few cheap knives to satisfy your cravings for higher priced stuff.
4) Learn that there is a subculture of knife collecting besides pocketknives.
5) See a knife magazine at bookstore
6) Buy a Spyderco/Benchmade eventually amass a number of better factory knives
7) Allocate more funds to the project and buy a Chris Reeve (or William henry or whatever)
8) 2 years later bug a knifemaker met at gunshow to build you the perfect knife
9) Before you know it, more interested in knives than guns/watches or whatever led you there to begin with and allocate more funds in that area.

I have head literally dozens of stories like this where people start at one end of the continuum and in some cases like Joe even start making knives

 

[Keith Montgomery]

First Blood and Rambo knives are on the comeback

I think the new one is going to be hot.

Daggers, hmmmmmm. I don't think they will be hot, but they may see a rise in popularity.

Oee style that I am starting to see a lot more of is chute knives. Lots of really nice ones appearing over the last while.

 

[Bladeandbarrel]

I was joking. Everything in the knife market has been trendy at one time or the other.
People should stop trying to "guess" trends and simply buy what they like and find others who like similar things. Then when its time to sell, your audience is already known.
Guys who collect Busse's tend to hang out in places where people like such things for the same reason. Now, if you can't locate people who like the same things as you, well then I would consider not spending too much on your hobby....

Top quality knives at a fair price will always be "hot". Like the stock market, always buy on fundamentals! Gold is really hot right now, its the same price it was in 1980! WOW, what an amazing long-term investment! Wonder how it will do in the next 27 years? Wonder how Coca-Cola has done since then

 

[Bladeandbarrel]

EVERY maker that I talk to, is starting to build slipjoints.

Supply and demand, remember. Slipjoints will now become less hot as more makers produce them which will drive the prices down and availability up. Kind of like the ABS Hunter thing. Temporary market correction thats weeds out makers, IMO.

 

[Kevin Jones]

Supply and demand, remember. Slipjoints will now become less hot as more makers produce them which will drive the prices down and availability up. Kind of like the ABS Hunter thing. Temporary market correction thats weeds out makers, IMO.

Please enlighten me on the "ABS Hunter thing".

 

[HTMD]

Here on the Bowdagger forum we may sometimes have difficulty comprehending the big picture but I think kitchen knives are hot and getting hotter. I would bet that in the future high end kitchen knives (like Ken Onion designs and a couple of Asian inspired brands) will constitute an entry point for new custom knife collectors-to-be.

Ask me how I know.