Custom knives is like any other commodities market, something is always selling and someone is always making a buck. If they weren't the market would collapse.
The majority of custom knife makers are hobbiest. This is not an insult just a fact. They generally have a full time job and make less than 50 knives a year. Many of these knives are given away as gifts others are sold at a very low price. This group of makers is easily over half the makers in the US. They have little or no input into the direction of the market(s). Again, this has nothing to do with quality...it has directly to do with quantity.
There are always exceptions to every rule, to include this one.
The majority of those who buy custom knives are professionals. That is to say they have a job that affords them enough income so they have "discretionary income" to spend as they see fit.
The custom knife market like any other market it follows the product life cycle. The business side of a custom knife business has to recognize that.
Collectors/buyers have a tendency to follow trends closer than the makers do. Consequently, they are quicker to abandon a style than a maker would.
So what appears to many makers as a slowing of the custom knife makert is in fact a shift in buying patterns. So while some makers are losing sales other makers are seeing their sales pick up.
Also basing knife sales on those who particpate in only Internet forums or who have web sites is an illusion as to what is really going on. As you are not getting input from all areas of custom knives.
Here is an example of an illusion. I buy 5 of the same knife, I put the knife on my web site. Three of these knives sell in the first 3 weeks, the 4th knife sells in the 5th week. However, the 5th knife doesn't sell until the 9th week. To someone tracking that knife it appears that the knife has been sitting on my site for over 2 months and no one has bought it. Point of fact is that 4 of the 5 have been sold in a fairly short period of time.
I think over the last couple of years collectors have given more weight to a knife's performance in the aftermarket. Those makers whos knives have lost half of their value in the aftermarket will note a decrease in sales. Those makers who produce a seemingly endless supply of knives will see a decrease in sales except for their newest model(s). As you will be able to get a slightly older model for less money in the after market.
Most new makers who are promoted on the Internet forums will see an intial increase in orders and then will see the orders drop. This happens as those who got their knives first start to sell them on the same forums for less than the maker is charging. So those who are either towards the end of list or have not yet ordered. Either cancel their order or do not order because they can get the knife they want now. In many cases for less than what they paid for it.
In some cases the knives will sell for more and this may cause more orders for the new maker. Bascially doing nothing more than putting them so far behind they will never catch up....stuck making the same knife for a year or possibly two at the same price they quoted intially.
One trend I have noticed is that those who used to buy very expensive knives are still buying knives. However, they are now opting for the less expensive version. I think this is part of the reason that carbon steel bowies form ABS Master Smiths have become so popular. Same style, same maker, less money.
Additionally, the ABS has done a fantastic job promoting its self over the last 5 years. To the point that forged blades are now enjoying an ever increasing following. The forged hunter is today to the ABS what the "tactical" folder was to stock removal 9 years ago.
Both were an entry level knife that allowed collectors to explore a new market (to them) for a small entry fee. Once the collectors realized the knives value for the money, the collectors wanted more and these knives became what seemed to many as a overnight sensation.
It seems that whatever the market, the top 6 -10 makers in that category are doing well.
Makers who have/had a world class maker as an instructor/mentor are also doing very well. Why, because they can make a "similar" knife for less money.
I know for my business my sales have increased every year. So for me I have not noticed a slowing of custom knife sales. I attribute this in large part to the makers I work with. Another big contributor has been my Vanguard series. Because of the ever increasing length of delivery times, collectors are now more willing to be put on a dealers "list" and wait sometimes for over a year for a particular knife. This is a change from previous years.
I think this shows that more collectors are doing their homework before the spend their money. As such they are willing to wait to get what they want instead of just buying something for the sake of buying something. This will also hurt the sales of new or less known makers.
The custom knife market is like a big knife show. No matter what show you go to, some makers sell out, some do ok, some only sell a few and some sell nothing.
