Well I must admit I wade into this with some hesitation--but it won't be the first time I should have kept my mouth shut.
No matter how we feel about knives, they are governed by market conditions and basic economics. Supply and demand. Oversupply = low prices. Low demand = low prices. High demand with short supply = very high prices.
Outside factors affect demand. A lot of collectors getting on board a single collector will increase demand. I remember makers that have drawings today that never got anyone's attention until passers-by realized that that maker's knives were in such demand that he had to have a drawing--so the passer-by runs up and puts his name in the drawing too. Not because he wants the knife--but because obviously everyone else wants it. Mob rule or herd mentality--it is all the same.
I see rational advertisers in knife magazines go to one magazine "because everyone else is there." In other markets advertisers like to go where their competition is not--but not in the knife game. Again, herd mentality.
Same way with shows. Everyone wants to go to the "good" show, not based on sales, or expenses, but because everyone else is there. The determination of a "good" show is usually based on what "good" makers are there. (All 20 of them).
So when we look at knife values in the aftermarket the herd factor has to be taking into account.
Real values of aftermarket knives are not based on wishing it so.
No matter how many rah-rah atta boys a photo of your knife on internet forums gets, or a delusional self-appraisal on knife value based on how good a friend you think you are with a maker, those are not realistic values.
Knives are like stock. The real value of a knife in the aftermarket depends totally on what someone is willing to pay on the day it is sold. What you paid means nothing in the final sale price.
It may affect your own peace of mind, or you confidence in your business judgment, or may even make you feel a little cocky if you picked right when you run it out on a spreadsheet. But it will not affect the final sale price.
In my most recent auction I had two knives a collector had purchased in the 1980's. A Loveless with Frank engraving he paid $550. Also included was a Sheldon Damascus Bowie. Sheldon had trained under Moran, was from Frederick, Maryland, and had sold that knife to the collector in the same year the collector had purchased the Loveless. The collector paid Sheldon $1250 for that knife. The Loveless brought over $5000 at auction, the Sheldon less than $800.00. Sheldon had dropped out of knifemaking in the 80s, and Loveless, well we all know about Loveless.
If the consignor had wanted $1250 as a reserve on his knife he would still be owning that knife. Does that mean the knife market is soft? From his standpoint if he only owned the Loveless the aftermarket is very strong. If he only had the Sheldon the aftermarket is horrible--and soft.
All this has to be taken into consideration when talking about the aftermarket.
There are few industries that do as much as they can to restrain an aftermarket as handmade knives. Knifemakers themselves complain about shows at which a seminar or event takes too many people out of the room, or a dealer is taking money out of their pockets. Dealers (and auctioneers) are the aftermarket.
A few weeks ago I had an auction with 179 knives and sold all but four. A recent auction by someone else had over 25% of the knives offered not meet reserve. If a knife doesn't meet reserve in a room full of knife collectors--then obviously the reserve was too high. Where else will you go to sell that knife? It would have to be someone who is not involved in the auction. So who do that leave? Someone who refuses to buy at auction, or someone so out of touch with prices that the don't keep up (in other words a--well let's just say someone that doesn't keep up. You can fill in your own blank there).
The vintage handmade market is heating up. One of the reasons is the knives are undervalued for what they are, at least to the collectors who have taken the time to research the history of modern handmade knives. Considering it is less than a 45 year history all it takes is a few old knife books, some back issues of the knife magazines, and some old Knifemaker's Guild directories, all readily available if you dig a little. If you bought vintage handmades a year ago, especially as closeouts from knife dealers who only deal in tacticals or hot-today knifemakers-the aftermarket is not soft--it is very hot.
But while those type knives are rising, they do not compare with the prices that the latest Mike Walker zipper brings. Does that reflect a soft aftermarket? I don't think so.
I had an old pocketknife trader tell me at a show over 30 years ago--"Son, if you're not selling knives then your prices are too damn high".
I think those wise words can be applied to any collector, dealer, or knifemaker.
If sales are slow, prices are too high. Lower them. If it is less than you paid--obviously you paid too much for what the knife is or who the maker is.
That does not take anything into consideration for ego or what you think the price should be--but those things never really affect the final price anyway.
Unfortunately it is that basic.
J. Bruce Voyles
