Concerns About Survive! Business and Misleading Lead Time Estimates

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I have faith. The quality, craftsmanship, ergonomics, and reasonable cost of the knives far exceed the waiting and risk for my future orders. Survive! 4.7 and 5.1 blades have become my favorite in their size range. I am fairly certain the 4.1,6,8,7/7 and 10 I have on order may quickly become my favorites as well. The handles will melt in my hand and the world will be at peace! I am confident the Survive! Crew will fulfill each and every order.

It is also promising to me that Survive! is making improvements in their products along the way. I have wondered if there is design ideas for the third generation run.

I truly owe sincere gratitude towards those that initially took risk in Survive! and who have patiently waited for their knives. Without your support, I would not be able to enjoy the GSOs I have and the ones I will have in the future.
 
Fancier said:
Can we add a fourth group?
Pragmatic realists.
I used to be hyper everything but then I got old. :)
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I'm right there with you bud.
My life and my time doesn't revolve around a knife that has or hasn't been shipped in a timely manner. I only had two orders placed so my opinion doesn't really fit in with the other folks that have spent $500+ on preorders. My 4.7 is here and the 3.5 will get here when it gets here.

Nothing against you guys that are having issues with your orders. 10 years ago I would've been right there with you wanting answers or results.
 
The long wait time doesnt bother me that much, I knew what I was getting into when I bought into presale. What has turned me off from Survive is these Monday Seconds sales. Nothing ticks me off more then coming home after a 14 hour shift and seeing a guy unbox a knife he bought two mondays ago while I wait months (most likely year +) for that same model I paid for in full long time ago. Every minute spent sharpening and preparing a seconds/ugly betty knife is a minute that could have been spent on a knife that someone paid for in full a year ago. That's not right. Full fill your obligations to the pre sale people, then move on to seconds.
 
I hear you Poromenos, and you are not alone in this sentiment. However, I do understand why S!K is doing it from a cash flow standpoint. If by doing this it allows them to stay afloat while dealing with the unforeseen problems in getting these knives out, then I am even ok with this lapse in customer service etiquette. I hope it is enough to allow them to get the processes fixed so that they can move through this difficult time, and come out the other side shipping a boat load of knives every week.
 
I think people are confusing impatience and unrealistic expectations with legitimate concerns about a business model that is not working.

S!K has been in business since at least 2013 (and I think earlier). All this talk about them being a “young company” that is just starting to learn about the knife business is inaccurate.

With the cut blades they have in stock and the orders they have on the books, they should be able to create a schedule. For example, they commit to sharpening and assembling XX knives a day. I know that S!K says that some knives take more time build than others, but after YEARS of building knives they should have some idea on an average cycle time. Everyone talks about S!K’s work ethic, so staying late and working hard to keep the schedule AND maintain quality should be doable. LOTS OF OTHER COMPANIES DO IT! These are not custom knives being forged from scratch, but mostly outsourced knives that need to be cleaned up, sharpened and assembled. At this point, there is quite literally no reason why S!K cannot create, share and keep a schedule.

However, I think the time for just demanding accountability for shipping knives in a timely manner is past. Let me explain:

S!K sells a knife for $100. They get the money up front. They plan for it to take a week to build. Let’s assume the cost of the material and all the outsourced work is $40. Let’s also assume that every week S!K pays employees $10 and has $10 of overhead. If things go according to plan, S!K completes the knife in one week. They now have $40 in profit left over to reinvest in the next knife or equipment. However, if it takes 3 weeks to build the knife, they have $0 in profit to reinvest. If it takes 6 weeks, they have to use the “profit” from the next model to fund ongoing operations. In the case of S!K, they can take go slow on the initial models and stay in business because they can use the “profit” from the future model to stay afloat. (To put it another way, S!K is subsidizing the knives they are producing now with “profit” from future models)

S!K has taken payments for at least 9 models, so they can build at an unprofitable pace for a while. But eventually, the money will run out and they will still have to build the remaining knives at a loss or go out of business… unless they keep on selling more knifes with future delivery dates or VERY drastically change their cost structure and operations. This is just my opinion, but I don't think S!K can change their business enough on their own to dig themselves out of the very deep hole that they have dug (and keep digging!).

With that in mind, I find the 7/7 e-mail very troubling. Combined with all the other sales (Monday, limited edition, cru foruge, Ugly Betty, seconds, etc) that continue to delay the production of Starter Program orders and pre-sales, the 7/7 email looks like a desperate ploy to grab more cash in advance. Furthermore, they are not being honest about when these knives will be available. Instead of saying “we won’t ship these until the end of 2017 at the earliest” they use terms like “Limited Amount Available Now!” and “… it will still take us a few months to get the preorders and these presale orders finished, sharpened, and shipped.” This is at the very best confusing at at worst just plain deceptive. To be perfectly blunt, this is not the way an honest company does business.

If you read all this and still feel good about S!K, that’s cool. Other members here, that I like, are not as concerned as I am. We all have different perspectives and accept different levels of risk. I think S!K is currently a house of cards that will fall in time. Nothing Ellie has said is going to result in the kind of change S!K needs to make. Unless they get some outside help (like a knowledgeable consultant that can teach them how to run a manufacturing business) and do a MAJOR overhaul of their operations, they are going to be in trouble. IMHO, it is just a matter of time…
 
Revolverrodger said:
This forum needs a dedicated mod to remove the negative posts like this one
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Do you mean removing ncrockclimb's post?

I think a big part of the problem is that we're all losing credibility outside of our forum and with prospective customers because we won't talk about that there is room for improvement.

If nobody is being a jerk I think it's pretty healthy to talk all this stuff through.
 
Ncrockclimb, I get exactly what you have been saying from the beginning, and I have nothing at all to argue with any of the points that you have made. None of us know what the financial condition of S!K is. Heck Guy might be able to operate at a loss for 40 years due to his personal financial situation. Or he might file chapter 11 tomorrow. None of us have any way of knowing. I do know S!K makes a great knife, and the only way to get what I want is to wait for it to be delivered. I do hope that he is able to turn the corner.
 
Fancier said:
Now all you can do is wait and see what happens, right?
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Pretty sure the point has been hammered home......ncrockclimb has valid concerns, but has ultimately no control over the private company Survive Knives and how they run their business.

1 point awarded to Fancier for the correct answer, but 1 point deducted from Fancier for not showing work.
 
Silver Needle said:
Do you mean removing ncrockclimb's post?

I think a big part of the problem is that we're all losing credibility outside of our forum and with prospective customers because we won't talk about that there is room for improvement.

If nobody is being a jerk I think it's pretty healthy to talk all this stuff through.
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If there was less whining and negativity this place would be way better
On a positive note : my knife has shipped !
 
Revolverrodger said:
If there was less whining and negativity this place would be way better
On a positive note : my knife has shipped !
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Straight up whining is the worst. There's a HUGE difference between "Why can't I buy a GSO right now like I could an ESEE? SURVIVE! is stupid!" and "I really support SURVIVE! but I have some concerns about their future and this is why".

Right?

Awesome news about your shipment :thumbup:
 
Silver Needle said:
Do you mean removing ncrockclimb's post?

I think a big part of the problem is that we're all losing credibility outside of our forum and with prospective customers because we won't talk about that there is room for improvement.

If nobody is being a jerk I think it's pretty healthy to talk all this stuff through.
Click to expand...

The only folks who have any actual credibility to lose are the folks at survive. Everyone else is just an onlooker, calling it as they see it, and tossing in individual anecdotes (both positive and negative).

I think that what's really happening in this subforum is twofold:

1) Survive is doing a truly magnificent job of pissing off (or turning off) a wide cross-section of their current (meaning folks with un-received orders in) and potential clientele through their weird business shenanigans, and seeming inability to make rapid meaningful changes in their output capacity and general approach

2) There's a (mostly very positive) subculture that was forming around their brand, but which is now inevitably wrapped up in the turd-storm resulting from the mass of consumer dissatisfaction they (survive) has created. And folks are threatened by that —*that's just what happens when bad things happen in (albeit loose) connection with a specific group of people. Add to that the implicit suggestion that everyone still sticking around waiting for knives is a dupe, and, well, there's inevitably going to be some friction.


I really like the look of their knives, and still have one on order (down from two, because... yeeeeeah, reasons), and think that the Survive people are wonderful souls who have nothing but the best intentions — but isn't there a saying about a paving company called "best intentions"?

I really think that it must suck to be Survive right now — unfortunately, though, as much as they might be trying to brute-force through this mess, it seems like total folly not to try in a meaningful way to drastically increase capacity... like yesterday. Unfortunately, they've apparently been making this bed, and they're not remaking it, so it's sadly theirs to lie in.

I do hope they've got enough of... whatever it takes to make it through this. Who knows what that something even is at this point, though.

I'll admit that at this point, half the reason I still have money in with them for a factory second is that I feel like my odds of getting it are reasonably OK (next week according to Jordyn), and I feel like if all else fails, it'll be an interesting historical relic of either "the great Survive tribulations-before-the-triumph", or "the great survive spectacular-wipe-out".

Either way, historic.
 
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Lets put all this in perspective:
Who really needs knives as work tool or to survive ?
For 99% of people here knives are a hobby and the vast majority of people who buy knives never really use them.

If you need instant gratification and can't wait a bit go buy cold steel knives
 
Revolverrodger said:
Lets put all this in perspective:
Who really needs knives as work tool or to survive ?
For 99% of people here knives are a hobby and the vast majority of people who buy knives never really use them.

If you need instant gratification and can't wait a bit go buy cold steel knives
Click to expand...

All of this may be accurate, but isn't remotely relevant to the concerns about the company.
 
I have three knives on order from S!, and I didn't figure I'd see my first one at earliest December. (My 7/7) In the beginning I weighed my risk, thought of the sheer number of pre-orders that could be possible and made my judgement call to order. Soon after I made a second order, and am currently waiting for my chance to handle my knives. I know it will be sometime and I'm OK with that. Not everyone is, and that's why I understand the concerns.

I my self am not concerned that I won't get my knives. I have total confidence that my blades will find their way home. As for the timely fashion they do that in, we'll that's out of my hands. In the mean time I'll be in the woods and when my blades get here they will be too.
 
You know what I'm tired of waiting for......

the GSO 20!!!!

Oh wait. Wrong thread...

For real though, I'm not nearly as tired of waiting for my knives as I am of waiting for some of y'all to quit whining! I used to enjoy this subforum but quit hanging out because of the whiny baby complainer pants rants. I remain a huge S!K fan, and I won't give up on them. This subforum... well, I'll check back in a few months.

Keep up the good work Ellie and Guy (and new people I don't know yet)! Try not to let the criticism of those outside of the arena bring you down.
 
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