Custom knife prices - bubble?

Lorien said:
But, like I said before, I have not yet received my crystal ball, so in the meantime I'll just speculate with the rest of you:)
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Speak for yourself, Lorien.

Go to 4-6 shows a year, and have for over 20 years.....my thoughts and observations were based upon empirical data and direct line-of-sight.

There are those that accuse me of a variety of affronts and insults...... demagoguery, abrasiveness, arrogance......

Yet....it is observance being reported, colored more by direct witness than "hating" or pre-concieved notions....there is a self-imposed duty to report observations rather than postulate.

Maybe the biggest sin in this community is plain talk...that is not everyone's thoughts and feelings are taken into consideration.

If that is the case.....guilty as charged, and happily.

What about you, Lorien?

Best Regards,

STeven Garsson
 
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I came across this video a little while ago and I thought the gent had some interesting things to say about the obsessive collector's mentality which I believe is largely responsible for driving the frenzy (I think might be the right word)... that we are currently witnessing.

I find it a very interesting phenomenon. As an avid accumulator of books, CDs, DVDs and yes, knives I often wonder why we are driven to collect things and are always constantly in the hunt for the next score. Some theorise its because we are biologically wired to do so and we do it because we no longer need to go out there and hunt our food every day. Perhaps. But I DO think this frantic competition to nail those so-called 'grails' of knife collecting is a big part of what drives the pricing so high. And I think the makers cannot but help take notice of this and cater to the collector's market. They are, after all, the ones who are willing to pay whatever it costs to reel in that big fish, more often than not.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mASQmEQBd_Y
 
Kohai999 said:
There are those that accuse me of a variety of affronts and insults...... demagoguery, abrasiveness, arrogance......
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Yeah, but we meant it as a compliment. :D I like the term that you came up with a couple of months ago to describe this phenomenon. I believe that it was something along the lines of "rampant bro-ism." :thumbup:
 
This is a good discussion. It comes up again and again yearly, if not sooner.

Knives are tools: Two guys have already gotten on the 'Knives are tools meant to be used' bandwagon, and they are correct for them. They are not supporting the current makers, even though they admire from afar.

Until you get to the point of, say, 10+ customs, this holds merit. After that, it's foolhardy to place working importance on something thats main purpose is NOW to give owner satisfaction, protect an investment (however interpreted through resale) and to support our craft through acquisition: Makers, dealers, other collectors.

"No needs a custom knife, they have to want it" Always.

I REALLY enjoyed the vid posted above by Jim Skelton. Like most vids, it's too long, but the point is clearly made. We can indulge to the point of overindulgence. Can, not always.

Tacticals are highly sought after and are engineering-driven. The engineering is right there for all to see. Hidden processes aren't as revered in this newish 'techie' collector market. This is why Bob's link also has merit.

Continue...

Coop
 
^ Good post Coop.
I don't know why we all just can't accept that there's many reasons we purchase/own/collect custom knives and no one reason is more valid than another.

As far as the subject matter goes; just like everything else, the market and pricing for custom knives will fluctuate depending on the economy and related factors.
Nothing to get excited about here.
 
I think it comes down to whether at least two rich guys want the same knife (or any other product). If so the price can go very high.

Dan
 
I agree it is the element of competition that can make things go crazy quite quickly. Again, egos are very much at play. But that has always been the case. The question is, why now? Is it peaking? What is driving the frenzy? Is the custom knife world entering a new phase - a renaissance period of sorts? This is what is interesting.

dcoffe01 said:
I think it comes down to whether at least two rich guys want the same knife (or any other product). If so the price can go very high.

Dan
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Lorien said:
I use knives for regular stuff every day as well and usually have a Benchmade in my pocket, but when it comes to building trails, (one of the things I spend a lot of time doing) I have specific needs that only a custom knife maker can meet. Sure, I could buy the latest poorly designed, (or inappropriately designed) plastic zombie slayer, but I get very little satisfaction using mass produced items like that because they just don't work as well as something designed specifically for the job.
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I don't buy junk or fad knives, never have. Not from a manufacturer or maker. And I understand completely the need to match the tool to the job. In context of the OP's post of this thread regarding the price of folders, I am glad that my needs are not like yours! I wouldn't use a pocket knife to clear trails. Sheath or fixed, OK. But if clearing trails or doing bushcraft with a folder, I can't think of one myself that would fill the bill nicely for a long day's work.

Had this been about fixed blades, my take would be different. I have seen and witnessed many, many fixed blade products that are "near" art, but are very hard working and useful tools, worth every penny paid. The fixed blade products turned out by some here and by some of the local guys around me are true bargains.

Lorien said:
I too see knives as tools and use them as such. I also see knives, in some cases, as Art. Now I'm no Art collector, and arguably not your typical knife collector, but there does come a time, (especially if you spend time in this forum!) where you just gotta have that piece that gets you going.
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As is any object in the collector's realm of interest.

Lorien said:
Now, some collector types are either impulsive or compulsive or a mixture of the two, and I think those are the folks who are getting mention here in this thread. But there has always been, and always will be shills in any sales environment who ups the hype, and there will always be folks who will buy into that. That's the capitalist way! But I think that this thread is looking beyond that a bit.
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I think collecting is collecting is collecting. If you are small scale collectors, not the guys that collect Van Goghs and Rembrandts, small items can be very faddish. My stamp collection is now about 50 years old, and was at one time quite extensive. In reality, it hasn't keep up well with inflation as far as value goes. The stamp collecting bubble burst, and I missed it. Same with my coin collection, bubble burst when I wasn't looking.

I was smart enough to get out of my watches as folks began to get away from wrist watches. High end watches with working, exact complications from small Swiss shops were the deal in the 80s, and I put some good money in it. But look at today; most folks don't wear watches because they have the time on phones, tablets, computers, and iPads. I was lucky enough to get out of watches when given a head's up from a jeweler that got me into it to begin with.

If I am honest, I may have made some money with guns, but even then, using the correct calculators, once I used them they didn't keep up with inflation or just barely did when assessing their current value. A couple have been hands down, out of the park home runs, but overall, nah...

This discussion has been a topic over in the traditional forum, too. It seems that many there have started to divest themselves of their collections, and have come to the realization that product saturation (again, we are talking about traditional folders) could be near. Plus, some have even talked about the fact they fear they won't get the money out of the knives they put into them. Some of them are guys that buy 4 of the same knife model, just to get the scale variants. They have found themselves with thousands of dollars of pocket knives, knives that have a strong (now) appeal from one or two manufacturers, but then with new models coming out monthly, who can keep up?

I understand collecting as I just quit it a few years ago. I certainly wouldn't deny the fun of the chase or the satisfaction of a good purchase. But my views are my own, and that ship has sailed for me. I was simply expressing my view on the custom folding knife bubble topic. I think personally, the custom fixed knife market has more room in it as it is still an affordable hobby to collect, and the actual value of the tools is still great.

I am reminded of what the great car collector Jay Leno said when being interviewed by Popular Mechanics. When asked about the value of his collection of cars (some of the rarest on the planet) he said he honestly didn't know. After getting burned more than once, he realized that even that didn't kill his passion for collecting. As is germane to this thread, he will pay what he needs to if he can get what he wants.

But to paraphrase his words of wisdom, he said to make sure you only collect the things you like, that way they will always be worth what you paid for them. That way, if their street value goes down, you won't care as you bought the car (in his case) because you liked it and wanted it to begin with.

The fickleness of collecting was really burned into me last year when upon the death of my father, I had to sell two different, extensive collections of items that he spent a few decades building. One being a small collection of genuine Colt .45 autos. After failing at getting a fair price from and estate sales person that "had connections", I consigned them to a specialty collector's shop, and even at full market sale price he only got close to the price of the guns adjusted for inflation. And these guns are a known quantity, a product well documented internationally with a great database, a product with a century of provenance!

Unless it is here or one of the other two knife forums, I can't imagine how hard it would be to get money out of a custom folder from a maker that isn't popular in the magazines of the day and accepted as a well thought of great guy on the various internet venues.

Lorien said:
But, like I said before, I have not yet received my crystal ball, so in the meantime I'll just speculate with the rest of you:)
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Ahhhh, yes... but as Mr. Garson said, an educated guess, built on empirical data, and then my add would be the history of small time collecting...

No doubt we will all find out about the same time!

Robert
 
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The economy is turning up. My 401k is up +40%. Lots of reasons now to spend play money on knives.

Dan
 
dcoffe01 said:
The economy is turning up. My 401k is up +40%. Lots of reasons now to spend play money on knives.

Dan
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That is Sig Line Material my friend..

Awesome Post!

Much Respect from Texas..
 
midnight flyer said:
Unless it is here or one of the other two knife forums, I can't imagine how hard it would be to get money out of a custom folder from a maker that isn't popular in the magazines of the day and accepted as a well thought of great guy on the various internet venues.
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I think your post was excellent, and illustrated many different thought processes and experiences of collecting.

Can add that generally when I sell, it's for significant profit. Knowledge of market position, timing, desireability and also knowing who has a propensity to buy and for what kind of prices all factor into this ability.

If there is a need for quick cash, I know I will take a hit....and that is always counterbalanced by the profits made on the other knives.

It isn't work to me, and doesn't take away from the enjoyment of collecting because I get to interact with people in the community that are generally very interesting and passionate about this lifestyle.

Best Regards,

STeven Garsson
 
Great thread.
I just sold most of my knives to a dealer in NJ. He bought everyone without question. Now, I know why.
rolf
 
Guys, I am not "ashamed" to say, as I heard it quite often from
many dealers and knifemakers of high end custom knives,
that my 9 books (so far) on modern custom knives have brought
into the equation many hundreds of serious new collectors...
Some say even many more, and these collectors have opened
new and eager markets for the good stuff.

This is especially true due to those volumes of my books that
have been translated into Russian.

All the best,
David Darom (ddd)
 
I have to add, some people are not patient enough to wait for a particular "hot knife" and they want it NOW!! And they will pay the price for said knife.

Then there are lots of "flippers" around in the market these days, they buy knives from popular makers and sell them at fairly high prices.

Supply and demand also seem to fuel the fire and so does makers closing there list/books.

Another possibility is a lot of people seem to collecting these days.
 
I agree, Some of these new makers on youtube and the forums are charging WAY to much for the materials and lack of experience.
 
I think there are a myriad of reasons and here are my thoughts as a relative new person to knife collecting but is very cognizant of this issue.

A) The growth of youtube allows for much more exposure to knife stuff than previously possible. Makes it a lot easier to justify the expense when you see a handful of youtube people all buy the same knife and post videos raving about it. I can personally attest that it has more of an effect on my than any post or picture could. Still not as good as going to a show and handling a piece personally.

B) The growth of affordable CNC machines and sublet work for heat treat and waterjets makes it easier and easier for people to get into knife making. I think that and the mid-tech/high end production market have flooded the $400-800 range of knives. As such, the cost of the real handmade stuff goes up to account for it.

C) I agree whole heartedly with the post earlier about the new 'rock star' maker and think it is really exacerbated when there is a particular hot style of knife. That right now is the titanium framelock flipper with bearings. If you are one of these rock stars and you are tapping into the frenzy over that style, then it compounds upon itself.

D) As a millenial (technically, though I despise being grouped in with them as I have more in common with people 10-15 years older than me than I do people 5+ years younger) there is a specific reason I got into knives in general. They are cheaper than many other hobbies. A high quality production knife is a lot cheaper than a pistol or a new golf club and a custom is cheaper than a new rifle or a new set of clubs. Being that my job requires me to have a keen eye for quality, I rapidly moved to customs.


On the plus side, I think the sheer variation in knives these days is helping drive growth. It's not just slip joints with different blade shapes or spring assisted knives with black g10 anymore. There has been an explosion in grinds, designs, shapes, materials, etc etc etc in the last handful of years. That drives interest. Even on the production side of things. Look at a Kershaw catalog from a few years ago and every knife is assisted with black g10, same blade steel and a different blade shape. Now almost none of their stuff looks even related.

That being said, I try to avoid the fad knives of the day. I buy what I like and I have a pretty diverse mix of knives if I do say so myself. I can't wrap my head around the sheer number of full titanium handle, frame lock flippers out there right now.


I'm not sure if that made sense and I apologize for rambling. I have been up since 4am after getting about 4.5 hours of sleep.
 
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