Custom Knives – Where in Five Years?

[Kevin Jones]

Well in the last five years there have been some changes.

We have seen many new makers come on to the scene. Not so sure the quantity of collectors is keeping pace with the growth of makers.

Even though the internet has been very robust the last five years, I haven’t noticed that many new custom web dealers. I feel most of the major shows have gotten bigger, I can think of one that has gotten smaller.

The popularity of Stock Removal knives seems to be at an all time high led by the Loveless phenomena. Yes, Loveless knife values have at least doubled. Johnson, Kressler, Young, Lovett and others haven’t done badly either.

The ABS has gotten stronger, and its makers are producing many of the finest knives in the world. In my opinion, ABS forgers have come a long way in regard to design in the last five years. Forged knives, especially the “blue chips” seem to be gaining modestly and other are at least holding their own in pricing overall.

In my opinion knife photography has flourished in the last five years aided in part by new technology and resulting in some of the greatest Customs Photo Books of all times being published.

Please feel free to agree, disagree or add to the above and comment or offer opinions on the below if you see fit. I'm very interested in your replies as the answers to these questions will affect most of us as we have vested interest.

• Do you believe new collectors will grow over the next five years at a favorable ratio over new makers to insure a healthy supply and demand?

• Do you see the number of internet customs dealers increasing or decreasing over the next five years? Internet custom knife sales increasing or decreasing over the next five years?

• Do you see Knife Show’s attendance growing over the next five years? Do you see the quantity of shows increasing? Do you see their formats changing?

I will add a few other questions in as discussion progresses.

As I have not even discussed custom folders here, please bring them into the discussion if desired.

 

[Kohai999]

• Do you believe new collectors will grow over the next five years at a favorable ratio over new makers to insure a healthy supply and demand?

• Do you see the number of internet customs dealers increasing or decreasing over the next five years? Internet custom knife sales increasing or decreasing over the next five years?

• Do you see Knife Show’s attendance growing over the next five years? Do you see the quantity of shows increasing? Do you see their formats changing?

1. No chance in hell....makers are proliferating at a ratio of about 4 -6 for every new serious collector

2. Not sure about the internet dealers...hard to be a good one, in that all the variables work against being successful, ie; expectation of low prices, large volume of choice, having product in stock, fast shipping....I do believe that internet sales will increase.

3. Knife show attendance MAY increase over the years...it depends upon the venue, the ABS Expo, Blade, and the AKI for instance will all show an increase. The shows will increase, but this will dilute the market, and other weak shows will fold up. Formats will change, but not sure how, quite yet. Your question at the root, is will the all emulate the AKI model, and they might try, but it might not work, depending upon attendee/maker expectations.

Best Regards,

STeven Garsson

 

[2knife]

The line at the Blade Show does seem to be getting longer year by year, but I don't know how that translates into sales. It would be interesting to know what the gross revenue is each year.

An ABS question: In terms of performace of knives. Does the ABS modify it's requirements to increase the performance level of JS and MS knives? I would be interested to hear how knives are rated, where it might be in five years, how it has changed in the last 20. Apart from the visuals, grind, fit/finish, etc..

There is more focus on performance in the factory knife industry, at least in the advertising..

A lot of collaborations going on.. the birth and proliferation of the mass-produced "custom knife".
David

 

[Kevin Jones]

1. No chance in hell....makers are proliferating at a ratio of about 4 -6 for every new serious collector

2. Not sure about the internet dealers...hard to be a good one.

This is too hard, Kevin, you should have broken it down into parts.

Best Regards,

STeven Garsson

I agree STeven. Too much to chew on at one time. Lets take the bullet points for discussion a few at a time.

Say the first three, then I will add the others in.

 

[JatMat]

Well in the last five years there have been some changes.

We have seen many new makers come on to the scène. Not so sure the quantity of collectors is keeping pace with the growth of makers.

Nope, Nice folders now are breaking my bank and I wonder when I am going to stop. Someone once asked a rich man just how more money would it take to make him happy, he replied, just another dollar. I think I am like that about my knives.

Even though the internet has been very robust the last five years, I haven’t noticed that many new custom web dealers.

The internet has allowed distribution with dealers operating out of their homes or garages and is making the cost of distribution very low. Brick and mortar stores are going to die out one by one.

In my opinion knife photography has flourished in the last five years aided in part by new technology and resulting in some of the greatest Customs Photo Books of all times being published.

Sharpbycoop is doing great work, the new digital world has opened the eyes and appetites of many and may bring in new collectors.

Do you believe new collectors will grow over the next five years at a favorable ratio over new makers to insure a healthy supply and demand?

Hard to say, who knows the future of anything these days.

As I have not even discussed custom folders here, please bring them into the discussion if desired.

Thank goodness you let me in, my love is folders, Love the customs, I don't know if they are more expensive now than they were in the 80's? Some of WT Fuller's work sold for over $2000 dollars then, now nearly 30 years later some great folders much more complicated and requiring much more work is selling for less, what does that mean? I don't have a clue. Technology making life easier for the maker, less hand work? But the end results are unbelievable.

Lots of good questions, but who knows the future of anything? We can only guess. What I do know is that I am going to die someday and who knows what my son will do with my collection. I think he will keep it for his son, but who knows, he may have to sell to buy bread.:grumpy:

 

[straitshot]

Much will depend upon the makers. Their challenge is to use the internet to introduce potential collectors to their wares. Ten years ago, magazines and word-of- mouth were the primary source of information. Custom knives were mysterious to many, myself included. I, and my friends, thought they were just "fancied up" show pieces, not a performance advantage.

Within the last five years sharing instant quality photos and instant mail, electronic payments, the ability to resell on the internet whenever desired, and websites to show and compare allows one to more easily participate. I believe if the associations will attempt to aggressively educate those interested in the hobby, and especially aggressively assist maker members to market their products by providing all available information, the growth will continue.

I suspect the growth will be mostly in the base level products, since the seasoned collectors have already established the position of "legendary" pieces. It's up to the maker if they wish to try the upper end stuff where the competition begins to thin out the number of potential buyers.

Forged will hold the most interest because of the uniqueness and because CNC now rivals the belt grinder in stock removal. If not for the continuous evolution of stainless and exotics, I believe stock removal would not hold the interest that it does today. Handmade is synonymous with forging in the view of many who have not delved into customs. Heck, I finish knives from quality pattern welded blanks, no different than removing removing one from a machine, but that doesn't mean it's custom.

Folders are the big deal in the overall knife market and in discussions. I suppose the stigma with carrying a fixed has a lot to do with that. Hunting (the fixed blade realm), sadly, seems to be on the wane. Hiking and camping- fishing are continuing to grow with our affluence. The challenge will be for custom makers to beat the CNC's for moving parts. Survivalists aside, most hikers lean toward folders that can be carried most often for mundane cutting tasks. I'm a fixed fancier but that means nothing, what I see is the proliferation of quality production folders.

Many collectors begin as accumulators, and it's up to the custom industry to cultivate whatever interest can be created. The factories have marketers, advertising budgets, phone staff, and CPAs. Custom makers have the internet and associations, and all could benefit from suggestions in practicing successful business techniques. The market for customs will grow if it is promoted, but it won't if allowed to just "be there" if someone happens to be curious or interested.

I happened into it just because of my search for performance and the internet, not because anyone gave me encouragement to keep looking deeper. That's my view, valid or not. BTW- many of the custom displays on the net don't even show the custom sheath, let alone try to use it to separate custom from production. Without every effort possible, many knuts will not cross the line. Regards, ss.

 

[jdm61]

I'm not sure what will happen to the market for knives like the ones you collect, Kevin. However, another relevant question is have the prices of factory and mid-tech knives risen to the level that makers who produce using knives can actually compete on price in addition to offering personal service and the perception of superior quality? This still leaves the issue of how the makers will reach that potential market, but that is a question for another day.

 

[Michael Lovett]

Wish I could answer your question! I can only speak for what I am seeing here at the shop. I simply cannot believe how much in demand Lovett knives have become. There is hardly a day that goes by that I don't get orders. Some days many of them. No way can I make them that fast. No where near it. To say that I am 8 years behind is being conservative. Some times it scares the hell out of me. But them again, nothing like job security.


One thing that I wonder about from time to time, is how well the tactical knives are going to do. Both folders and straights. More and more of them are being semi mass produced. You hear the terms fit and finish used a lot on the forums. In the Mag's, and at shows. You hear a lot of bragging and comments of how well built a lot of the tactical are. But when you look at a lot of them, the fit and finish is terrible. I've seen top name folders that you could pass a business card between the bolster and handle. There is very little quality fit. I know many of these makers personally. They make good money. And they are tickled pink at just how little work they have to do.

Blades, handles materials, locks, all laser of water jet. Blades milled on cnc. Screw holes pre-drilled and taped. About all that is left for the maker to do is final file fit of the lock. Sharpen- Logo- and have the help mail it. I definitely went the wrong way. I'm working my tail off. Many of these guys can produce more in a month than a real hands on maker can in a year. I don't think the rift is coming at all between the Stock Removal guys and the forgers. If anything, it will be between real makers, and assemblers, and contract makers.

Some how some have gotten the Idea that Stock removal means automated machinery, and forging means all by hand. Nothing could be further from the truth from either camp! Only a complete lack of knowledge of how a hand made knife is really made would allow one to think this. They are a lot more alike than different.

I am hoping the buying public will eventually become more educated on the products we offer. I feel that when this happens, there will be many more satisfied customers. This in and of its self will help all of us. Both now and in the future. Mike

 

[Keith Montgomery]

1. No chance in hell....makers are proliferating at a ratio of about 4 -6 for every new serious collector.

If that is indeed the case, then at some point there will be a thinning of the knifemaker herd. I think you would need those numbers to be reversed for things to remain heathy, as I think it would take at least 4 - 6 serious collectors to support one knifemaker.

I think stock removal knives have been popular for years, and will continue to be so. Loveless and Loveless style knives will contiue to flourish.

Over the last couple of years i have noticed a few new custom knife dealers come on board, but that may well be just because I hadn't found them earlier and they had benn there all along. I think you will probably see a few more come along in the next 5 years, but I don't see the numbers increasing an appreciable amount.

Attendance at the well run shows will increase, but unless some shows figure out ways to attract more people, they will not survive.

The ABS is definitely a quality organization. many of its members are definitely
are showing great improvement, but that is also the case with many none ABS bladesmiths. Knifemakers as a whole will continue to produce better and better knives.

I think another area that is going to expand over the next five years is the area of the semi-custom knife. Makers are looking for ways to be more successful, and having a line of knives that have outsourced parts is a way of doing that.

 

[ptgdvc]

1. No chance in hell....makers are proliferating at a ratio of about 4 -6 for every new serious collector
STeven Garsson

Agreed.

I confess to having almost zero understanding of the folder and stock removal markets, but do I try to keep up with the ABS forged fixed blades.

The cream will always rise to the top. The recently elevated new Master Smiths and the Journeymen who will test for MS in the next few years have superior skills and will start replacing some very familiar names at the top of the craft. Discerning who is on the rise and who maybe coasting downhill is an integral and interesting part of collecting. We all have our favorites and their are no guarantees in life. Which of course is great news for the collectors and forged knives in general, but not so great news for well established Master Smiths who are not already in the highest tier.

Someone recently pointed out to me that the knife that won the Moran Award, for the best in show, at this year's Blade Show actually had a JS stamp on it. If that is not writing on the wall, I don't know what is. John White, MS (2007) was the maker.

 

[Lorien]

I hope you don't mind my chiming in, but this is an interesting subject and one which I'm currently exploring a facet of.
I think that the ease of quality photography, and the growing number of high calibre photographers are going to create a paradigm in internet sales, where stores will become more interactive, more informative, more atmospheric and easier to use. By the same token, knifemakers stand to grow their exposure through this medium, and gain a larger market share. Those who specialize in 'tactical folders', will likely go mid tech, then factory production and I hope that Emerson will set a benchmark and usher in a north american based cottage industry set to grow and achieve the status of the large players who've all gone tits up recently. The knife industry will always need the knifemakers, and in any given field there will be those who persevere and those who move on to something else. My view is that the knife industry is at the threshold of a new groundswell, which will coincide with large differences in the way that business is done.

 

[Don Hanson III]

Custom knives have been steadily growing for many years. I've been involved for over 25 and have seen a huge growth. The number of orders I have is crazy.

The internet and photography have been the largest change (very good change) for the custom knife community. They're more knives for sale on the net, any given day, than at any knife shows, past or present (with the exception of the Blade show, maybe). The net has hurt shows a bit and air travel being a pain in the ass, hasn't helped either.

From my point of view, the future is very bright for custom knives.

 

[Keith Montgomery]

I hope you don't mind my chiming in, but this is an interesting subject and one which I'm currently exploring a facet of.

Pertinent posts are always welcome.

 

[SharpByCoop]

The internet changed everything. Probably around 8-10 years ago knives on the net started getting popular. The introduction of dealers who now could sell and show knives 24/7 replacing once-a-month shows took a firm grip.

I feel bad for those dealers who come to shows but don't have a website. They are being left in the dust of hands trading money on a wednesday evening by those who do.

Obviously the propensity for sales is dependent upon GREAT photography, and in the two-dimensional world of the internet the need for quality images has become paramount. It also helps to have 'buzz'. That's part of what we are doing right here.

Most of the images I post around here are from shows and individual makers. But, without question, the largest portion of my work comes from working to provide single website images for a number of smart dealers. I cut my teeth with TheCustomKnife.com and now I have six dealers who consistently send me their most important work (and some who send me ALL of their work.)

So yes, Kevin, the process has been win-win for buyer, dealer, and then me.

Prediction: We are in the infancy of online knife videos. Pay attention.

Coop

 

[Kevin Jones]

We have seen many new makers come on to the scene. Not so sure the quantity of collectors is keeping pace with the growth of makers.

• Do you believe new collectors will grow over the next five years at a favorable ratio over new makers to insure a healthy supply and demand?

1. No chance in hell....makers are proliferating at a ratio of about 4 -6 for every new serious collector

Best Regards,

STeven Garsson

Sure hope you are wrong STeven. If not, the future looks bleak for the customs industry. And I'm not implying that we have too many makers; just possibly not enough collectors.

We are made aware of new makers joining the community as we see their knives posted on the web, at shows and on forums since their success is to a large degree dependent on their exposure.

On the other hand, we don't have an accurate measure as to how many new collectors are entering the market and to what degree they collect. We see new collectors visiting this forum every week, however many are content to stay in the shadows. For example, I collected for about six years before visiting and joining my first knife forum here last October.

The shows I visited in the last 12 months (Jerry's Micro, Reno, Blade) would indicate the collector base is strong and growing. Jerry has a waiting for collectors and "not yet" collectors to attend his show. So I'm cautiously optimistic on the subject. :thumbup:

If you guys are correct and the ratio is that far out of balance, than we just need to work harder in promoting the industry, sharing our knowledge/experience and keeping new collectors "in play".

 

[notdos]

Plenty of new interest in knives. To keep the custom side growing and healthy the challenge is to get the newly interested educated and over what I call the hundred-dollar-hump. They have to get past productions to be helpful to the custom market.

I don't think they'll be a big influx of new custom dealers in the next 5 years.

Absolutely,,good photos help sell knives and also help to peak curiousity.

I believe knife shows will thin to a specific group amd those shows will be packed events.

Phillip

 

[Durwood]

I think the custom slipjoint market will continue to grow, but the bar will continually be raised as to what is expected from a maker in terms of fit and finish and materials used. Some guys are coming in and making some pretty nice stuff in only a year or two. I believe the use of CNC will increase dramatically in the custom slip market, but I think it will remain to be seen how collectors accept it or in other words what they will pay for it. It will also depend on the extent of it's use. A well made and finished "cookie cutter" Custom has an appeal at a certain price point until a bunch of them show up on the market.

Mike Alsdorf has brought some fantastic slipjoints to the scene at affordable prices using CNC technology. If I was going to become a knife maker I'd be learning how to make slipjoints. Most of the best makers are in their 60's while the demand for custom slipjoints should be good for at least 20 years...Also there is a definate existing demand for high end slipjoints. Tony and Reese Bose (Case in Point) surely there must be room for others. Just my thoughts and observations.


I think Michael Lovett makes an excellent point here too:

Some how some have gotten the Idea that Stock removal means automated machinery, and forging means all by hand. Nothing could be further from the truth from either camp! Only a complete lack of knowledge of how a hand made knife is really made would allow one to think this. They are a lot more alike than different.

 

[Kevin Jones]

• Do you believe the popularity of Stock Removal knives will continue to rise at the last five year’s pace?

• Do you believe stock removal prices will continue to rise at last 5 year's pace?

 

[Lorien]

I get the impression that there is a 'survival movement' currently afoot, (there probably always has been, but...) and that the growing buyer demographic shift will bring with it the expectation of modern designs with high tech material, at a high price.
The intuition behind this desire for 'tool' knives is motivated by many factors in north america, namely the fear of conflict and an expectation of economic ruin. It's almost as if the market is 'bracing' itself and building demand for high cost, but bombproof edged tools, ie; Busse etc.
If one actually uses a knife for what mankind has always used knives for, namely, not decapitating zombies, then one can truly appreciate a knife which was made by a craftsman in the old school way, (more or less).
This 'armament' style knife buildup I think is good for the custom market, as it raises the price expectation of consumers.
On the other hand, many people who are feeding the armageddon oriented high end knife makers and manufacturers are increasingly urban based, upwardly mobile children of baby boomers, an increasingly more powerful market. The rural market is declining as our agricultural land gets consumed by suburban development. That could change, and should.
It's possible that the majority of 'traditional' knifemakers' clientel are the parents of the 'tactical' generation, and that these baby boomers are spending more of their retirement funds on custom knives for the same reason as their progeny; a firm grip on an ancient security blanket during turbulent times.
I don't think there's anything to do, or worry about. The market will play itself out as people move forward. As long as people move forward, everything will continue to progress, (duh!).
G'night.

 

[Kevin Jones]

Some how some have gotten the Idea that Stock removal means automated machinery, and forging means all by hand. Nothing could be further from the truth from either camp! Only a complete lack of knowledge of how a hand made knife is really made would allow one to think this. They are a lot more alike than different.
Mike

Mike, the fact remains that many stock removal knives are made by automated machinery. And in the next 5 years perhaps the majority will be. If the maker utilizes laser technology, CNC or a traditional milling machine, I consider it a limited production machine made knife rather than hand made.

I do of course consider traditional hand/wheel ground stock removal knives hand made, even though I appreciate and am more interested in the forging method.

So IMO, one would show a lack of knowledge and be very naive in thinking all "custom" stock removal knives are hand made.