Custom Knives – Where in Five Years?

[Bladeandbarrel]

I was speaking of Mike's non-Loveless style designs. I think most got the point I was trying to get across.

I read your post. It seemed to me that you confused as to why people continue to make Loveless reproductions instead of their "own" designs.

It's simple. Collectors want Loveless knives and not everyone can afford $5,000 hunters.
When you have been making knives for 60 years like Bob Loveless, especially in the pragmatic and artistic way that he makes knives, you develop an international following large enough to support the rest of the makers who can provide 90% of the real thing at 10% of the price.

The main reason I collect forged knives is the fact that most are unique. Even forged Randall's have a bit of uniqueness about even though they were made in a "benchmade" environment rather than by one maker alone. I will admit to a certain bias towards Loveless designs however, the man is absolutely brilliant.

I think the forged vs. stock removal argument is a tired one indeed.

 

[Kevin Jones]

I read your post. It seemed to me that you confused as to why people continue to make Loveless reproductions instead of their "own" designs.
It's simple. Collectors want Loveless knives and not everyone can afford $5,000 hunters.

When you have been making knives for 60 years like Bob Loveless, especially in the pragmatic and artistic way that he makes knives, you develop an international following large enough to support the rest of the makers who can provide 90% of the real thing at 10% of the price.

The main reason I collect forged knives is the fact that most are unique. Even forged Randall's have a bit of uniqueness about even though they were made in a "benchmade" environment rather than by one maker alone. I will admit to a certain bias towards Loveless designs however, the man is absolutely brilliant.

I think the forged vs. stock removal argument is a tired one indeed.

No, not make their own designs instead of the Loveless style knives that the dozen makers I can readily identify make, but with the degree of talent these makers process I would just think they would branch out more often.

Yes, the forged vs stock removal argument is tired, so lets get back to my intended purpose of this thread, and please give up your experienced view of what you think the next 5 years holds for makers, dealers and collectors.

 

[Bladeandbarrel]

No, not make their own designs instead of the Loveless style knives that the dozen makers

I think for some makers its a purely financial/business decision. Some makers have spent years perfecting the Loveless style and that what they know..

I think the next 5 years will be bad years to be a maker, in general. It will be fine for those makers that have embraced the internet or whose wives have good jobs.....

It will be an excellent time to be an accumulator of great knives at firesale prices. Its due time for a severe market correction in higher end knives.

 

[Michael Lovett]

Thanks for the compliment Kevin. Kevin, and Anthony, You both make good points. And I couldn't agree with you more. I see a legion of makers trying to to emulate Loveless. I also see a large number of makers trying to emulate Moran and Fisk. Just to name a few. In the old days, it was Randall. It's called follow the leader. When you are successful, and your designs sell, there will always be imitators. We see it every day in the cars we drive. I can remember when you could spot a Chevy or ford a mile away. Now days, they mostly all look alike. It move product!

As to why I am doing it, well my reasons are a bit different. I have been knocking this job for over 30+years. Some years better than others. But none bad. I have been fortunate enough to follow my dream. Yes some of my designs have been quite successfully. Several which have been copied by industry. Sadly I never got credit for any of them. Such as life. I enjoy what I do every day. To have such a following is a very gratifying and humbling thing. But it didn't' happen over night.

Now to the Lovett_Loveless Connection Knives. My love of Loveless Knives goes way back. The Loveless Knife was what gave me the desire to make knives in the first place. Such simple and elegant designs. Shear genius. I'm not going to sit here and blow smoke by saying that I got into making knives because I couldn't afford a real Loveless. Of course I couldn't. But I have spent many times more money and time learning the craft that what it would take to buy a Loveless Knife. My desire was to be able to come up to the Loveless quality. Something Bob Loveless would be proud to own. I think I have accomplished this goal. As Bob Loveless and his Partner Jim Merritt both own Lovett Knives. With more coming form me. But why imitate? Well this is as good a place for it to come out as any. It was supposed to come out in the Oct Blade mag. But they dropped the ball. The Miss quoted Bob. They misquoted Jim. And not one word of the over 1 hour long interview they had with me was included. A good bit of it did come out in the private meeting at Blade this year however. And much if not all of it is on film.

A private collector of Loveless Knives set up a meeting between Bob, Jim and Myself. I wasn't sure why at the time. Other than the collector and Loveless are good friends. As am I and the Collector. I wanted to meet Bob and Jim. And Loveless wanted to see my knives. We hit it off instantly. Bob Liked my work, as did Jim. Bob gave Jim free reign to teach me the Loveless way. And at this, Jim is a master. Bob Loveless himself tells me that the Loveless knives coming out out the Loveless shop today are the Best Loveless Knives ever made. "Because of Jim Merritt". I have make several trips to the Loveless shop since. The Last trip I spent time in the grinding room, playing with Loveless patterns. There is so much to a Loveless Knife. so many angles and curves that simply cannot be seen in a photo graph. Bob and Jim have taught me the tricks of the trade when it comes to making the loveless knife. Even though I have never been a partner in the Loveless shop, both of his partners, Past-Steve Johnson. and present-(for over 25 years) Jim Merritt, give help whenever needed. Jim and I in particular have spent untold hours on the phone going over the fine details. The how's and more importantly why's of the different nuances of the Loveless Knife. And how to get there here at the Lovett shop.

Bob and I have become good Friends. Jim and I have become like brothers. We end up finishing each others sentences all the time. We can see in our minds what the other is trying to explain. It is uncanny! Of course Jim is originally from just 12 miles up the road. This probably helps. Bob is getting older. As we all will. Jim had a medical problem for a while. He is fine now. In fact he is doing great. But Bob after spending a life time perfecting the Loveless Knives was worried that the Loveless Knives, made the way he and Jim make them was coming to an end. Bob upon examining my knives. The first ones I carried out to the Loveless shop, ask how many Loveless Knives I had handled. You should have seen the look on his face when I told him that I Had never handled a real Loveless. He was shocked. How In the hell did you get so close he ask? All I could tell him was that this is the way I felt a knife shod feel. He looked at Jim and said "Finally-Someone understands. Why we do the things we do with our knives!) With that he ask Jim to take me to the patterns and help me all he could. It has been that way ever since.


When Buster died, It hi many of us hard. (Buster was very good to me). It hit Bob really hard. He ask, Mike are you really serious about carrying on the Loveless Tradition? It shocked me to my core. The Master himself asking me. Just another maker from somewhere in Texas this. All I could was "Yes Sir, I will do every thing within my power to make the Lovett-Loveless Connection Knives the way I know you and Jim would want them. When George Herron Passed away, He ask again. And Again I answered the same.

With this he said to call him anytime I needed help, and ask Jim to give me all the help and guidance he can. And they have both been true to their word. I couldn't possibly ask for better Mentors. I can't tell you haw thankful and honored I am. To be chosen by the Master.

So I ask you all. Why are so many emulating Loveless. Because he is Loveless. But be honest. If you were in my shoes. Would you turn down Bob Loveless with his request to carry on th loveless Tradition? Would you turn down Both Bob and Jim's tutoring? Bob said from the start that there would be a few who wouldn't like what we were doing. But as Bob so eloquently put it. It's none of their business,(unless they are buying one)"And it's what we are going to do".

Jim told me just recently that as far as he is concerned, Mike Lovett is the only one out there that could walk into the Loveless shop, by himself, turn on the lights, and make Loveless Knives. Now I ask you guy's? How would that make you feel. Now this is no reflection on Steve Johnson. Steve is a TOP Maker in his own right. But Steve mostly does his own thing now. And we are good friends.

Stop making Loveless designs? Not hardly. Besides. I'm up to about 50 original Loveless patters here in the shop now.

i can tell you this, If for any reason something happened, and Bob or Jim need me, I'll be on the plane to Riverside the next day! Mike

 

[Bladeandbarrel]

Its due time for a severe market correction in higher end knives.

It is also time for a strong correction on the secondary for a lot of the bead blasted, cord wrapped and painted junk masquerading as "handmade" knives also.

 

[Bladeandbarrel]

Great post, Mike.

 

[Kevin Jones]

Great story Mike. Thank you for sharing it. :thumbup:

 

[RogerP]

The biggest think separating the two camps now days is selection. I'll get blasted for this, but I can spot a forged knife for the most part instantly. Why? Does forging make a knife look different? NO! But the modern forged knife has taken on a certain look. This is all fine and good, but it has narrowed the scope of the makers to a large extent. In the Stock removal circles the sky in the limit on design. There is no end to the styles. From the sublime to the wild and even totally ridiculous. In order to capture a larger segment to the market, More has to be offered. The same old-same old won't get it for ever. I am a bit confused by the required look in the first place. Remember the Randall's. You had to check the marking on the logo to tell if it was stock removal stainless, or forged, and stock removal Hi-carbon. and O'l Bo was around a lot of years before any one ever heard of the ABS. Mike

Well Mike, I can spot a stock-removal knife for the most part instantly as well. Does that mean that they are all the same-old same-old? Not hardly. Forging is the traditional way of making knives, so it should be no surprise that it attracts - both in terms of customers and makers - those who prefer traditional types of knives. I agree that you will see greater variation in the stock removal side - they pretty much own the wild 'n crazy fantasy knife genre - but I don't see much of a demand for forged fantasy knives.

I find your suggestion that all forged knives look the same to be absurd. "Required look"? Required by whom, exactly?

So I ask you all. Why are so many emulating Loveless. Because he is Loveless. But be honest. If you were in my shoes. Would you turn down Bob Loveless with his request to carry on th loveless Tradition? Would you turn down Both Bob and Jim's tutoring? Bob said from the start that there would be a few who wouldn't like what we were doing. But as Bob so eloquently put it. It's none of their business,(unless they are buying one)"And it's what we are going to do".

I've been here a while Mike - and I can't really recall anyone ever suggesting that you abandon Loveless-style knives. I HAVE heard it sugested (and wondered myself) why you don't offer more of your own designs. Talent is certainly not an issue.

And the irony is somewhat inescapable when in one breath (as partially quoted above) you are pontificating about the lack of variety in the forged blade and casting dire warnings that "The same old-same old won't get it over forever." - and in the next breath your are going to great lengths to a) justify your prolific fabrication of the "same-old" Loveless designs and b) declare yourself to be the annointed heir to the Loveless tradition.

Roger

 

[Kevin Jones]

I think for some makers its a purely financial/business decision. Some makers have spent years perfecting the Loveless style and that what they know..

I think the next 5 years will be bad years to be a maker, in general. It will be fine for those makers that have embraced the internet or whose wives have good jobs.....

It will be an excellent time to be an accumulator of great knives at firesale prices. Its due time for a severe market correction in higher end knives

Anthony, you are the second very knowledgeable and experienced collector along with a writer/dealer who could be considered the authority on custom knives to present negative forecast for the upcoming half decade.

As negative forecast can actually induce a market correction, are you expert's opinions just "GUT" feelings or is their actual trends, data, history and market conditions in place to back-up your forecast?

It's ironic, as myself and another collector were just discussing on Friday how the current market was soft, however had noticed recent examples where top tier maker's high end knives were moving but entry and mid level knives had slowed noticeably.
So again, can you elaborate more on your prediction that higher end knives are doomed?

 

[ptgdvc]

Upon reflection, I think this topic may just be too broad and unwieldy.

There are so many different segments in the "Custom Knife World" that lumping them all together and attempting to define the "MARKET", with poorly or completely undefined terminology, is an exercise in futility.

That said, it is hard to resist the alure of being a soothsayer or pundit. The sheer joy of being able to say "I told you so" is sublime.

Always remember that even broken clocks are precisely correct twice every day.

 

[Bladeandbarrel]

Anthony, you are the second very knowledgeable and experienced collector along with a writer/dealer who could be considered the authority on custom knives to present negative forecast for the upcoming half decade.

As negative forecast can actually induce a market correction, are you expert's opinions just "GUT" feelings or is their actual trends, data, history and market conditions in place to back-up your forecast?

It's ironic, as myself and another collector were just discussing on Friday how the current market was soft, however had noticed recent examples where top tier maker's high end knives were moving but entry and mid level knives had slowed noticeably.
So again, can you elaborate more on your prediction that higher end knives are doomed?

I didn't say that higher end knives are doomed. This is what I wrote

I think the next 5 years will be bad years to be a maker, in general. It will be fine for those makers that have embraced the internet or whose wives have good jobs.....

It will be an excellent time to be an accumulator of great knives at firesale prices. Its due time for a severe market correction in higher end knives.

When a Democrat gets elected to the White House and we get barraged with new and glorious "5 year plans" the disposable knife market will suffer.

The makers that remain successful are the ones who have embraced modern marketing methods and tailor their knives to an educated, elite clientele. Not necessarily millionaires, but the kind of customers who buy 3K watches, usually millionaires "on paper". The type of folks who can afford to spend $5-$10K a year on knives and salt them away for posterity without really feeling it. That will seperate the winners from the losers. The makers who are doomed? They are ones doing gun shows and still don't know how to take pictures of their knives and post them on a website....

As negative forecast can actually induce a market correction, are you expert's opinions just "GUT" feelings or is their actual trends, data, history and market conditions in place to back-up your forecast?

Last time I checked, Morningstar was not analyzing the knife business. My "forecast" is based on over 15 years of aggressively buying, selling, and learning about all types of handmade (and factory) knives through different economic and political conditions. If I thought I could induce a correction one way or the other, believe me it would be slanted towards the "other".

 

[Bladeandbarrel]

One of the few hopes for the tactical knife business is another assault weapon ban.
That will get the panerai wearers to more knife related websites.

 

[Don Hanson III]

Well, Mike, 'all them forged blades look alike' I'll have to disagree here, they're a good number of smiths that think outside of the box.........Roger said it very good.....

Mike, you're a very good maker and I do agree with you, that the forged verses stock removal is a dead issue but your statements don't help to put it to rest.

Mike, your second post here was a good read......looks like the Lovett-Loveless Connection has a bright future.

This has been a very interested thread.............Not sure about others but I will be very busy in the next five years.

 

[Kevin Jones]

I didn't say that higher end knives are doomed. This is what I wrote

Anthony, the "doomed" crack was in tongue & cheek

When a Democrat gets elected to the White House and we get barraged with new and glorious "5 year plans" the disposable knife market will suffer.

The makers that remain successful are the ones who have embraced modern marketing methods and tailor their knives to an educated, elite clientele. Not necessarily millionaires, but the kind of customers who buy 3K watches, usually millionaires "on paper". The type of folks who can afford to spend $5-$10K a year on knives and salt them away for posterity without really feeling it. That will seperate the winners from the losers. The makers who are doomed? They are ones doing gun shows and still don't know how to take pictures of their knives and post them on a website....

That's just what I was looking for. Makes sense, Thank you. :thumbup:

Last time I checked, Morningstar was not analyzing the knife business. My "forecast" is based on over 15 years of aggressively buying, selling, and learning about all types of handmade (and factory) knives through different economic and political conditions. If I thought I could induce a correction one way or the other, believe me it would be slanted towards the "other".

Just my point Anthony, as you are being too modest.

Opinions, forecast, views from you, STeven, WWG, Jerry, AG Russell, just to name a few do have an affect on the customs market IMO.

 

[Stephen F]

Always remember that even broken clocks are precisely correct twice every day.

I likes that!

Stephen

 

[Kevin Jones]

Well, Mike, 'all them forged blades look alike' I'll have to disagree here, they're a good number of smiths that think outside of the box.........Roger said it very good.....

Mike, you're a very good maker and I do agree with you, that the forged verses stock removal is a dead issue but your statements don't help to put it to rest.

Mike, your second post here was a good read......looks like the Lovett-Loveless Connection has a bright future.

This has been a very interested thread.............Not sure about others but I will be very busy in the next five years.

Don, no one should ever say your pieces are not creative. :thumbup:

 

[Les Robertson]

Anthony,

15 years??? Thats it? That of course is primarily part-time as a collector. Man you have to look for new sources of news. You are being sucked into that Liberal "woe is us" mindset.

Market is up, unemployment is down and the deficit is shrinking. It's horrible out there! I bought when the market was plummeting on Wednesday. Made a couple thousand bucks on Friday. Its horrible out there.

I have to say I agree with almost nothing you say, except for the marketing comments.

As a professional 12 1/2 years full time Custom Knife Entrepreneur. Im talking only source of income, no money from mom or dad, raising a family not selling anything but custom knives. I can tell you that who is in Congress or is the President has little or nothing to do with the popularity of custom knives.

I have sold MILLIONS OF DOLLARS of custom knives with both a Democrat and Republican in office.

Anthony and others you have to look at the DEMOGRAPHICS that the custom knife market consists of. Which is primarily middle to lower upper class. I base this on selling MILLIONS OF DOLLARS worth of custom knives to individuals in these markets.

While it would be nice to find a multi-millionaire or two out there for a maker. The downside to having those in your portfolio of customers is that it is almost impossible to replace them when they leave. I have a friend of mine who was on top of the knife world. House full of awards, knives averaging $8,000 each. Eventually he was down to 2 clients and he was pulling down $200,000 a year for two years straight. Then one of the clients moved on to another hobby and the other followed about 6 months later. Now as a maker creating only $8,000 knives, exactly where is it you market your knives? Answer is you don't and you are no longer a knife maker. Eight years after being away from the market he is back with knives more in the $1,000 to $2,000 range. It was a hard lesson to learn, perhaps what is worse is that the majority of the high end buyers out there don't even know who he is now.

Anthony another not so well kept secret is that the majority of Millionaires are what is known as "Paper Millionaires." That is to say their net worth is only worth a Million or more on paper. Many of these individuals if they lost their job would quickly lose many of the assets that made them Millionaires.

You can see alot of these in California and Arizona who lost their butts in the housing market collapse. The same thing will happen with some of the very high end custom knives. Everyone will make money on the way up. Then the music will stop and those holding the knives with the inflated prices will eventually have to sell at a loss to pay the bills.

The good news is for collectors and house buyers as well (I direct your attention to the huge amount of foreclosed housing coming on to a Real Estate Agency near you...all that sub-prime housing has to go to someone. Start looking for a lot more Carlton Sheets ads on your late night TV!). Is that there will eventually be some great, formerly very expensive knives out there coming to auctions, shows and dealers near you!

Do a little research into the world of expensive Interframe Folders in the late 80's and early 90's. Especially the Barrett-Smythe knives. Talk about pennies on the dollar!!!

The great thing about a hobby/business like custom knives is that because there is actually very little business within it. Something like Morningstar couldn't track it even if it wanted to.

In the infamous words of Mr. Blutarksi "Nothing is over until we say it's over! Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? Hell no and it ain't over now!"

As well as an Infantry E-7, Platoon Leader in the 82nd Airborne who during the Gulf War was asked if the thought it was necessary for the US Army to be ready to invade Iraq said "Well sir, the politicians and diplomats have done all they can. Now it is time for them to step aside and let the professionals take over.' Can I get a "Hooah"!!!

It will be those who act as professionals, not hobbyists or elected board members who will determine how the custom knife market moves in the next 5 years.

Anthony, remember the IRS can only tax your gains if you withdraw them. If you must wait at least a year to get the long term capital gain rate. Perhaps that is what is hurting your ROI. You are buying and reselling knives for a profit in less than a 12 month period. Subjecting yourself to the short term capital gain rate. This could really have a negative effect on your AGI as I sure claiming your profits from knife sales as earned income on your taxes aren't you?

WWG

 

[Bladeandbarrel]

The makers that remain successful are the ones who have embraced modern marketing methods and tailor their knives to an educated, elite clientele.

Les, how the hell can you disagree with that?

The good news is for collectors and house buyers as well (I direct your attention to the huge amount of foreclosed housing coming on to a Real Estate Agency near you...all that sub-prime housing has to go to someone. Start looking for a lot more Carlton Sheets ads on your late night TV!). Is that there will eventually be some great, formerly very expensive knives out there coming to auctions, shows and dealers near you!

Pretty much exactly what I just noted. Sounds like a parrot in here?

think the next 5 years will be bad years to be a maker, in general. It will be fine for those makers that have embraced the internet or whose wives have good jobs.....

It will be an excellent time to be an accumulator of great knives at firesale prices. Its due time for a severe market correction in higher end knives.

I believe I will stand by this statement, and we can see in 5-6 years if it pans out.

Do a little research into the world of expensive Interframe Folders in the late 80's and early 90's. Especially the Barrett-Smythe knives. Talk about pennies on the dollar!!!

No Kidding.

 

[Bladeandbarrel]

Anthony, remember the IRS can only tax your gains if you withdraw them. If you must wait at least a year to get the long term capital gain rate. Perhaps that is what is hurting your ROI. You are buying and reselling knives for a profit in less than a 12 month period. Subjecting yourself to the short term capital gain rate. This could really have a negative effect on your AGI as I sure claiming your profits from knife sales as earned income on your taxes aren't you?

WWG

Of course, why wouldn't I, and why would you make an assertion on a public website like that?

And I am sure you aren't deducting more than 1/10 of your home for business purposes, arent you? Or your vehicle that you use for all those in-person knife sales...

 

[Shing]

I didn't know the Germans bombed Pearl Harbour, when didi it happen?