Economy, Good for knifemakers?

[Kevin Jones]

Quite right, we have heard from several of the top makers and they are doing great! That is to be expected, in every downturn in the last 40 years the best knives sold and sold and sold. What we need to worry about are those of us who are in the middle and lower ranks.

The internet is a tool that has never been used in this kind of economy. I suggest that all of us, makers, collectors and users focus on ways that we can use the internet to promote the makers who are not being flooded with orders. Do not wait to be led! Get'r done.

Great stuff AG.
I had never thought of the CKCA in reference to helping the industry in a bad economy. You got me thinking.
In spite of the bad economy, this month was the CKCA's best in regard to new collector membership since our initial membership drive during last Blade Show.

 

[A. G. Russell]

Good thread,

..point of clarity requested:

A "shop made" knife and a "factory" knife are indistinguishable? Both Production/semi-custom knives, made by one or more makers. Often serving as a "ghostwriter" ?
David

A Shopmade® knife has some CNC, laser, water jet, EDM involved but has the blade finish ground and finished by a skilled knifemaker, the handle done just as it would be by any knifemaker. It would not be unfair to call it semi-custom.
Sole-Authorship is Buster Warenski (RIP) or D' Holder, two or more makers is Bob Loveless, Bob Dozier, etc, etc or my shop if I can find one or two more makers, and I probably will before long.

I rarely make a knife, I employ a knifemaker (more soon) to make knives to my direction and design.

 

[Marcel54]

Quite right, we have heard from several of the top makers and they are doing great! That is to be expected, in every downturn in the last 40 years the best knives sold and sold and sold.

A.G. you are so right. The last year my stocks and options have dropped about 50% in value, luckily I don't need to sell them (yet). In that same year I made a ROI of about 12% on the 15+ knives I've sold as a collector. So my discretionary money will go into knives for the coming period.....although buying stocks at the current price point is quite interesting too

Marcel

 

[A. G. Russell]

Great stuff AG.
I had never thought of the CKCA in reference to helping the industry in a bad economy. You got me thinking.
In spite of the bad economy, this month was the CKCA's best in regard to new membership since our initial membership drive during last Blade Show.

Yes, you, the CKCA, is very much a part of this industry, and if you are going to be of overall help you need to be supporting makers across the spectrum not just the greats.

 

[A. G. Russell]

A.G. you are so right. The last year my stocks and options have dropped about 50% in value, luckily I don't need to sell them (yet). In that same year I made a ROI of about 12% on the 15+ knives I've sold as a collector. So my discretionary money will go into knives for the coming period.....although buying stocks at the current price point is quite interesting too

Marcel

Marcel,
If you are still holding stocks, you are a man of great courage. Personally, I would, if I had any money, not buy stocks until the dow goes below 5,000.

 

[Kevin Jones]

A.G. you are so right. The last year my stocks and options have dropped about 50% in value, luckily I don't need to sell them (yet). In that same year I made a ROI of about 12% on the 15+ knives I've sold as a collector. So my discretionary money will go into knives for the coming period.....although buying stocks at the current price point is quite interesting too

Marcel

That's interesting Marcel, as 12% ROI seems to be a pretty consistence number of average between sold out right and return after consignment for collectors who buy/sell and track such. I'm generally around there as well.
Custom knives are a lot more fun than stocks too. :thumbup:

 

[Marcel54]

Marcel,
If you are still holding stocks, you are a man of great courage. Personally, I would, if I had any money, not buy stocks until the dow goes below 5,000.

Our index (AEX) is about on the same level as 2001. I didn't get out quick enough so I'm holding on to them and wait for better times. I know they will come, I'm old enough to lived through a couple of other rough times (the eighties for instance), albeit it will take time and hard work from everyone.

Marcel

 

[Marcel54]

Custom knives are a lot more fun than stocks too.

Kevin, you're damn right. Stocks are only paper and not very pretty to look at either. On the other hand I can enjoy, fondle and look at my knives every day and at the same time know that when push come to shove I can at least break even with them:thumbup:

Marcel

 

[Kevin Jones]

Yes, you, the CKCA, is very much a part of this industry, and if you are going to be of overall help you need to be supporting makers across the spectrum not just the greats.

As I mentioned earlier in this thread, I have a plan for my collecting in this economy.

There are other ways for a single collector to help makers than just buying their knives. Realistically how many knives can I buy from how many makers?
Not that many.
However, I can help MANY makers by taking the time and working hard to progress the industry and bring in new collectors.

And as you know AG being a founding member, the CKCA supports ALL makers and collectors equally.

 

[RWS]

Marcel, Personally, I would, if I had any money, not buy stocks until the dow goes below 5,000.

I agree. Even then, the unpredictable future of so many companies will require a lot of luck in the gambling nature of the selection process of any stock chosen to invest in.

I also agree that my knives have done much better than the stock I own, or use to own as the case may be.

 

[irbailey]

Very interesting thread. Even though times are hard at the moment, I'm still having orders come in. I read in Blade the other week that the low end makers were most likely to feel the pinch first. I'm only a spare time maker, and I'm certainly at the very lowest end of the makers spectrum, but even so, my waiting list now stands at about 18 - 24 months and is growing.
So for me the economic downturn has had no effect at all. Weird.

Ian

 

[Pete Crowl]

I'm selling every thing I make. I have more orders for 2009 than this time last year. I'm just part-time. I plan on making knives for as long as I can. I appreciate what Mr. Russell has said, especially the changes being made with the knives he produces. I have been considering what changes I should make to help remain in business. Even though 2008 was very good for me and 2009 has started out great(as a knifemaker). I think we all know things will get worse before they get better. Very thought provoking thread. Thank you Mr. Russell

 

[Karl B. Andersen]

Here is a perspective from a U.K. customer of mine.
Last year, he ordered a knife from me and wanted to pick it up at the Blade Show. He did, and bought another one from me while he was at my table.
He just bought the Curly Walnut and Wrought Iron Bowie I posted, but had this to say when I asked if I would see him this year in Atlanta:
(unedited):
"Karl,
This will be the first knife I’ve bought since last year's Blade….it took an exceptional knife to get me buying again!
Blade isn't looking good for this year, the pound has dropped 30% against the dollar and flight prices have increased quite a bit so it would make it a potentially very expensive trip. This will be the first Blade I've missed for 8 years?.not happy!!!lol"


Anybody have opinions on "foreign knife-relations"?

 

[Lorien]

I rarely make a knife, I employ a knifemaker (more soon) to make knives to my direction and design.

That's quite an invitation! I know that if I were a knifemaker trying to make a name for myself, that I'd be making sure to get in touch with you. There is probably very few people as adept at selling knives as A.G. Russell.

 

[RogerP]

Yes, you, the CKCA, is very much a part of this industry, and if you are going to be of overall help you need to be supporting makers across the spectrum not just the greats.

Good advice there.

Roger

 

[Kevin Jones]

Though most makers who have responded seem to be doing quite well, I expect many if not most makers are struggling.

The upper tier makers for the most part will do fine in an economic downturn as fine art, investment grade collectibles and gold usually do well as investors shift from traditional to more tangible investments. And their client base is often less affected by poor economic conditions. And that’s fortunate IMO, as the upper tier makers for the most part are the pioneers of our industry who got us here, keep us here and are our ticket to the next level.

That’s why I don’t understand the reasoning behind the opinions that collectors who collector more towards the upper tier should start supporting makers across the spectrum, not just the greats. These upper tier makers or greats have paid their dues and deserve the continued support from their collectors especially in these hard times as many are full time makers and don’t have other income to fall back on. I don’t know any makers who lead lavish lifestyles, but work VERY hard for their income.

IMO, collectors should continue to support the makers whose knives they are drawn to and have supported all along regardless whether they are new, mid tier or upper tier. Many of these makers count on this staple business for their livelihood.

 

[A. G. Russell]

Though most makers who have responded seem to be doing quite well, I expect many if not most makers are struggling.

The upper tier makers for the most part will do fine in an economic downturn as fine art, investment grade collectibles and gold usually do well as investors shift from traditional to more tangible investments. And their client base is often less affected by poor economic conditions. And that’s fortunate IMO, as the upper tier makers for the most part are the pioneers of our industry who got us here, keep us here and are our ticket to the next level.

That’s why I don’t understand the reasoning behind the opinions that collectors who collector more towards the upper tier should start supporting makers across the spectrum, not just the greats. These upper tier makers or greats have paid their dues and deserve the continued support from their collectors especially in these hard times as many are full time makers and don’t have other income to fall back on. I don’t know any makers who lead lavish lifestyles, but work VERY hard for their income.

IMO, collectors should continue to support the makers whose knives they are drawn to and have supported all along regardless whether they are new, mid tier or upper tier. Many of these makers count on this staple business for their livelihood.

this last paragraph is absolutely correct

I was not really saying that the buyers had an obliigation to buy knives they did not want, only that it would benifit the knife world if they supported young makers who would otherwise be lost to us by being forced out of knifemakeing.

 

[RogerP]

....
I was not really saying that the buyers had an obliigation to buy knives they did not want, only that it would benifit the knife world if they supported young makers who would otherwise be lost to us by being forced out of knifemakeing.

Again, you are entirely correct.

Roger

 

[Kevin Jones]

this last paragraph is absolutely correct

I was not really saying that the buyers had an obliigation to buy knives they did not want, only that it would benifit the knife world if they supported young makers who would otherwise be lost to us by being forced out of knifemakeing.

Many believe there are an alarming number of new makers entering the industry as opposed to the number of new collectors. If so, this unfavorable maker to collector ratio is not beneficial to the knife world.

Rather than encouraging collectors to support new/young makers, is it not best to let the market decide how many it can support? The young makers who work hard to become better knifemakers will stay, the others will not. Just look at the outstanding young/newer makers who frequent this forum, Kyle Royer, Phillip Patton, Erik Fritz, Joe Mandt, Stephan Fowler, Chris Moss, all doing extremely well in the most difficult economy many of us have seen. (sorry if I left anyone out as this forum is full promising young makers).

I just have a problem with trying to influence collectors as to who to buy knives from. If a young/newer maker is conducting him/herself properly and making quality knives then they will keep themselves from being forced out of knifemaking.

Not trying to be contrary and of course no disrespect meant AG, just trying to present an alternative view.

 

[RWS]

Rather than encouraging collectors to support new/young makers, is it not best to let the market decide how many it can support?

I don't think so, because the custom market is probably skewed in favor of the more highly popular and more prestigious makers in the industry.....toward the "stars" of our industry, if you will. I sure know it is on this custom knife forum.

This may mean that only the most popular, and most expensive makers will be considered by the new collector, or even seasoned collector, out of ignorance.

We need to let them know that they don't have to go to the "best", most expensive makers to get a good quality custom knife that they'll be proud of. The first, second or third hand made knife for their collection doesn't necessarily have to come from Dean.

A young or new, first time custom collector may not know where to really turn to for his/her first or second order of their desired custom knife. And, because their knowledge of custom knives may be limited due to only hearing about the most well known knife makers, a newly interested collector may believe that his only avenue for purchasing a custom knife is by ordering it from one of the better knowns, which isn't a bad thing, but it could turn a new custom buyer off if his first or second custom knife order is going to cost him too much to get it.

New, or less popular, makers enable custom ownership at a perceived affordable price. Even for long-time collectors, like me. The key word here is "perceived".

We need to educate the first time buyer and let him know what all his options are for buying that custom knife they want that they don't think they can afford.


IMO, now is the time to promote and market custom knives targeting first time buyers along with promoting the younger custom or not so "famous", more affordable makers. It's a good match for both parties, IMO.