Famous knife bubbles and fads?

Drop bear said:
Haven't heard much of Gill hibben in the last ten years.

But he was the bees knees for a fancy blade there for a while.
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Gil and Linda are good people. Gil had a stroke a few years ago. He's recovered, but he's 78, I think. He's still making knives and teaching classes, but the days of his prime and creativity are just naturally behind him.
 
Jason Fry said:
Can I get a few examples of knives, styles, or makers that were suddenly hot to the point they became over hyped, then the bubble popped?
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Hackenslash said:
Cool question.

I think the biggest example of this is Hinderer. A few years ago they sold for 2X or 3X MSRP due to availability. I'm sure there are lots of speculators who bought XM's thinking the bubble would only get bigger. Instead, it burst as Hinderer ramped up production and changed the way they sold their knives. I love Hinderer knives and it's to the benefit of all Knife Knuts that they're available to anyone.

A couple of deflating bubbles are Shirogorov and Grismo. I'm not criticizing the knives, but they suffered from severe over-hype and the market is currently adjusting. In the case of Shiro, they're becoming more readily available and there are real alternative from Cherberkov and others. Regarding Grismo, people are finally saying "WTF will I use this blade for?". These both may have already popped. I'm seeing resale on these at or below new selling prices.

Next up to pop is probably Holt. They're great knives but they're not a $1500 knife.

Survive! is a brand that should not only pop but burn in a blaze of dung.

Examples of specific models that have popped or are popping are the Protech Malibu, the Spyderco Slysz Bowie and anything by TRM.

I love my Slysz Bowie but the thought of someone paying $600 for one makes my brain melt. Proech and TRM are great knives but require patience. They make a lot and you'll get yours eventually.

The knife market is also being flooded with "mid-tech" imports. The knives are great but there are SO MANY OF THEM! There won't be a pop in the selling price of new knives, but the resale value of most of these have taken a hit. Most of these sit on the Exchange unless they sell at 50-75% of original selling price unless it's a limited variety or has a rare feature like Kickstop.
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Agree with all of the above. The only one that I felt needed additional elaboration :), is Hinderer. Yes, the used price popped, but - as you said - due to Rick ramping up production. Lot's of new offerings now, 1-2 releases per month, and they don't stay on the shelves for more than 10'. And some rarer versions still go crazy on the used market, like 3V copies, M390 Fulltracks, Battle Field copies, etc.
 
yeah hinderer...man that was crazy. even the kershaw cryos hinderer designs was never available and folks flipping the Chinese made for way more than the selling price for a long time almost a year I think...
 
Triton said:
My prediction next up: GEC.

No one wants to believe it but another fad will come along and all those guys that have been paying 2X or 3X or whatever MSRP will discover that they have an MSRP knife.
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The reason GEC is so popular is due to the high quality traditional knives they produce at reasonable (factory) price. GEC may be up for a burst only if a couple other factors come into play:

*If their quality drops on a higher percentage of production
*If they start producing higher volume and are more readily available. (The knives would still be desirable in this scenario, you just wouldn’t see the insane secondary market).
*If they start charging from the factory “flipper prices”.
*A competitor rises in the same niche market

Any 1 of the above could cause a burst IMO. Outside of something changing the bubble will likely continue.

I think the most likely (and desirable) cause for a bubble burst with GEC will come in the form of competition. Boker with their traditional German made knives are competitors with current production, but even they charge a bit more from the factory than GEC. Case could compete if their quality became more consistent. I personally would love to see more competition in this niche of knife manufacturing.

The “tactical“ craze got me into this hobby 20+ years ago. The old school traditional knives are what keeps me interested.
 
Boru13 said:
And yet both continue laughing all the way to the bank.

Wrong about Emerson, not sure where you're looking but his customs have no problem selling in that price range.
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Several customs have been sitting in that price range for quite a while now. The market has definitely cooled for his stuff. 6s are really the only one bringing any kind of money anymore. Back in the day any custom in that price would’ve been bought up instantly.
 
severedthumbs said:
Several customs have been sitting in that price range for quite a while now. The market has definitely cooled for his stuff. 6s are really the only one bringing any kind of money anymore. Back in the day any custom in that price would’ve been bought up instantly.
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As I asked, where are you seeing customs in the price range you specified setting for months?

ACK's listed 12 different customs between 7/27 and 7/29... there all sold.

The only ones I see setting for months are those on eBay with the ridiculous 3 to 4 times table price mark up.

Agree on the 6, that's an easy flip for stupid money.
 
Surprised no one mentioned this guy. I’m not sure a bubble burst, so to speak. But I hear virtually nothing about him anymore: Todd Begg.
 
I'd love to say Mad Dog Knives, but his crap is still selling for INSANE numbers on AZCK🤪
 
Murdamook said:
Surprised no one mentioned this guy. I’m not sure a bubble burst, so to speak. But I hear virtually nothing about him anymore: Todd Begg.
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I’m not sure what’s up Todd lately but he got sideways with his own production knife company. Somehow he lost controlling interest to a partner and a family member. The Steelcraft series only bear his name, true Todd Begg’s are his customs.
 
Yeah, Todd had to rebuild his life and business to some extent. He's still making customs, and is now the president of the Knifemakers' Guild.
 
Jason Fry said:
Yeah, Todd had to rebuild his life and business to some extent. He's still making customs, and is now the president of the Knifemakers' Guild.
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I just remember for a couple of years there hearing about the Bodega daily, and now I don’t see any anywhere or hear about them at all anymore.
 
Dergyll said:
I really wish that were the case. They consistently go OOS in 3-4min. Some are really really good, like the bull buster and bull moose, while others are meh. I just buy them now out of pure reflex and habit when I SHOULD just be buying the ones I really like: "but why if it's good? You're gonna pay x2.5 prices on the secondary?" Says the small voice in my head.

I would say spydercos sprints (especially dealer exclusive sprints) are ramping down. A few months ago these go OOS in again, minutes. Now I see them stay in stock for hours or days. Or maybe dealers are ordering more of them; Both are good thing.
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Patience, patience. Busse used to be like that as were others. At some point people will discover something else that they HAVE to have and will go kiting off after it.
 
JOELSM said:
The reason GEC is so popular is due to the high quality traditional knives they produce at reasonable (factory) price. GEC may be up for a burst only if a couple other factors come into play:

*If their quality drops on a higher percentage of production
*If they start producing higher volume and are more readily available. (The knives would still be desirable in this scenario, you just wouldn’t see the insane secondary market).
*If they start charging from the factory “flipper prices”.
*A competitor rises in the same niche market

Any 1 of the above could cause a burst IMO. Outside of something changing the bubble will likely continue.

I think the most likely (and desirable) cause for a bubble burst with GEC will come in the form of competition. Boker with their traditional German made knives are competitors with current production, but even they charge a bit more from the factory than GEC. Case could compete if their quality became more consistent. I personally would love to see more competition in this niche of knife manufacturing.

The “tactical“ craze got me into this hobby 20+ years ago. The old school traditional knives are what keeps me interested.
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I agree with you that eventually the market will be diluted by competitors / imitators. It's just a matter of time. At the moment demand far outstrips supply but eventually other makers will help meet that demand. That's just one factor. The other as with most fads has to do with the the vagaries of a fickle marketplace. What is hot today will be old news tomorrow and demand will inevitably drop.
 
Triton said:
I agree with you that eventually the market will be diluted by competitors / imitators. It's just a matter of time. At the moment demand far outstrips supply but eventually other makers will help meet that demand. That's just one factor. The other as with most fads has to do with the the vagaries of a fickle marketplace. What is hot today will be old news tomorrow and demand will inevitably drop.
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I don’t think traditional pocket knives are a fad…they’ve been around longer than anyone currently posting on this forum.
 
I'm not sure the GEC can last, the only reason they achieve flipper prices is because they're limited and being flipped. It's not that there's any integral value to match their current price. When the market realises that they're buying them at that price only because they are that price the pack of cards starts falling.
 
Pomsbz said:
I'm not sure the GEC can last, the only reason they achieve flipper prices is because they're limited and being flipped. It's not that there's any integral value to match their current price. When the market realises that they're buying them at that price only because they are that price the pack of cards starts falling.
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I think it may be more accurate to say the secondary inflated market for GEC won’t last.
 
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