Is "retired maker" a plus or a minus?

[Bobby Branton]

I stand corrected...as indicated, this would not be directly in my realm of knowledge.

Thank you for the information, helps to let us all know. So a piece that originally sold for $1,000 is now $2,500?

Is this across the board and are the pieces moving readily?

Best Regards,

STeven Garsson

When he was still active, Fighters were $500.00 and are now $2,500.00, a subhilt was $750.00 - $1,000.00.
They are now $3,000.00 - $3,500.00
and they are snatched up almost immediately

 

[Kevin Jones]

I would hope and assume that if makers such as Fisk, Hancock, Dean, Dunn, Hanson and others that are established and have built fine reputations in the industry were to retire for any given reason there would be a continued demand for their knives.

Any thoughts?

 

[Marcel54]

Joss

My opinion is that even Moran and Warenski knives have not increased in value, but I don't know.

Kevin

Based on my observations, both Moran and Warenski's pieces have held prices on average.

Talking about Warenski: unless I'm mistaken the dagger that sold for $4,700 + 10% at last weeks auction in Chicago is for sale at KnifeLegends for $12,500 this week. Although the former pricetag seems a bit low I'm wondering and not sure if the latter one isn't a bit too steep.

Any thoughts?

Marcel

 

[jjtjr]

I collect knives by Wayne Valachovic who is a retired ABS Mastersmith. Most of the knives were purchased after Wayne retired. His prices have held pretty much where they were before he retired and I have seen some of his work selling for more than he was getting when he was making knives.
I think Bill Moran's knives will continue to appreciate, especially the newer work. There is a much smaller pool of buyers who can afford to buy knives for high four and low five figure amounts. Jim Treacy

 

[Keith Montgomery]

For me, since I only purchase directly from the maker, if they have passed away or retired, my interest in purchasing one of their knives no longer exists. That doesn't mean that I don't still like to look at these makers' knives, or that they hold no interest for me at all, but I certainly won't be purchasing one of their knives.

As far as whether the resale value of a maker's knives will go up or down after they die or retire, I think it all has to do with their standing in the knife community before this happened.

 

[Kevin Jones]

Joss

Kevin


Talking about Warenski: unless I'm mistaken the dagger that sold for $4,700 + 10% at last weeks auction in Chicago is for sale at KnifeLegends for $12,500 this week. Although the former pricetag seems a bit low I'm wondering and not sure if the latter one isn't a bit too steep.

Any thoughts?

Marcel

Marcell, as far as prices asked and prices paid; nothing surprises me anymore. But that keeps it interesting for me.

 

[Les Robertson]

NOTE: This is for people who are looking to make money on the custom knives they buy.

1) Retired/Deceased is good for about 18 months. After that the market will flatten out.

Exception....George Herron. George did so much for the custom knife community and was respected and loved by so many, his work will continue to go up past his 18 month mark. If you were ever fortunate enough to spend some "quality" time with George you know what I mean. I sure do miss him. I suspect Loveless will fall into this category as well. For different reasons than for George.

2) Makers who are considered among the best do their collector base a disservice by not continuing to market their knives and themselves. "See Reason Number 2"

Example: Buster Warenski. Arguably the finest knife maker in the world in the 20th Century. However, the majority of his work in the 90's never saw light of day as it went directly to collectors. He attended very few shows during that time frame. I believe he understood that it was up to him to help the care taker of his legacy. So he started to do shows again (ECCKS and AKI come to mind) and he was on the Board of Directors of the Guild (for the second or third time) and wrote the Guild Column in Blade Magazine. Unfortunately he passed away before he could really establish the next collector group.

Busters work as Marcel pointed out is very undervalued. This is common place across the board for his "plain" work. Knives that Julie worked on command a much higher price.

3) Makers can become victims of the very organizations they help to form.

Example: Bill Moran. The very organization he helped form is in no small part responsible for his knives not bringing more in the after market. Bill was so concerned with the ABS not paying taxes the ABS will always error on the side of not promoting anything that may make a dollar. This includes promoting those who help to keep the organization alive!

If the ABS was more involved in promoting not only its techniques and history but its membership as well. Bill's work would be selling for much more than it is now.

At the recent Chicago Auction the knives went for what most in the room agreed were below market value.

Two knives did not meet reserve and were pulled. The two were a very rare Moran Folder.

The Second knife I found to be very interesting. It was not a Moran knife per se. It was the 2005 ABS Auction Knife. The knife featured 13" Damascus Blade. This was the last piece of Damascus that Bill ever made. Well known MS makers such as Jay Hendrickson, Joe Keeslar and Jerry Fisk worked on the knife as well. The sale price for this exceptional knife was $15,000. Bidding on this knife reached bout $12,500. The knife did not meet the reserve of $15,000. Can't blame the guy who owned it for wanting to break even.

Now some of you will say that the Chicago Show is not a hot bed for ABS type knives. However, it is a hot bed for very knowledgeable knife investors. Also you could bid for this knife on line from any where in the world. Then again maybe if Bruce Voyles auctioned it off at the Spirit Of Steel Show maybe it would have went for more money. Bruce is in the ABS Hall Of Fame.

For the ABS Makers and Collectors reading this...view this as a cautionary tale! If the best this knife could do would have been a 20% loss (not including the 10% buyer fee and seller fee). How much better can the next most famous maker in the ABS fare? This should be a little piece of information that you keep in an easily accessible part of your brain.

Again, this is not information for collectors. I know you buy what you like, etc.

The good news is, that if you can wait two years after a maker ceases to make knives you should be able to find some bargains.

I anticipate within the next 5 years you are going to see more and more world class knives coming up for sale from the 80's All Stars! Should be some real bargains there.

WWG
Custom Knife Sage!

 

[Kohai999]

NOTE: This is for people who are looking to make money on the custom knives they buy.

1) Retired/Deceased is good for about 18 months. After that the market will flatten out.

Exception....George Herron. George did so much for the custom knife community and was respected and loved by so many, his work will continue to go up past his 18 month mark. If you were ever fortunate enough to spend some "quality" time with George you know what I mean. I sure do miss him. I suspect Loveless will fall into this category as well. For different reasons than for George.

Care to tackle Harvey McBurnette or Jim Schmidt in your analysis? To what do you attribute the Schimdt phenomena?

Best Regards,

STeven Garsson

 

[Les Robertson]

Hi STeven,

Jim made approximately 260 knives in his whole career. About 80-90% of the Schmidts are owned by relatively small group of collectors.

Jim was an innovator, who produced very few knives and was a great guy. Alot of the people who own his knives think of Jim as a friend.

As for Harvey, again a very well liked guy. He was an innovator as he was one of the first to do "Sole Authorship". Harvey's knives have held up well over the years. But it is sets like the 4 knives with the Clubs, Diamonds, Hearts and Spades on them that demand the most money. There are lots of McBurnette's out there that are not bringing big money

Again, there are exceptions to every "rule".

Likeability, rarity and innovation will go a long way to extending the 18 month period I spoke of.

WWG

 

[Durwood]

Even use of the phrase "semi-retired" seems to be jacking the aftermarket value of Ray Cover knives up by the week...of course they have been tremendously undervalued for years.

 

[jdm61]

What I find interesting is where the value of knives made by "pupils" of some of the greats are heading. We all know about the Loveless guys, but I have been noticing that knives by guys like Jay Hendrickson, who I would compare to Steve Johnson on the Loveless side of the aisle, have been showing up with some pretty stiff price tags, at least for his larger blades.
It has also been interesting to see guys like Jim Crowell, who was one of the founding fathers of the Arkansas school. be, for lackof a better term, overtaken in the market by guys like Tim Hancock and Harvey Dean. As for the "semi-retired" guys, I was looking at some old editons of knives and saw a bunch of stuff from guys who were super hot back in the early 90's who just seemed to have vanished from the scene. The couple that that comes to mind are Keith Kilby and John Smith whose stuff really caught my eye back in the day.

 

[SharpByCoop]

Thanks, Les. That was VERY informative.

Check THIS out: I took a video of another Moran knife closing, just..... because. Here it is:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qFaGSC-DjJc

Bidders are anonymous.

I thought the Auction very positive for the custom knife community as values were realized across the board VERY well. There are always exceptions, but the upward trend was abundantly apparent.

Coop

 

[Les Robertson]

Hi Durwood,

You are using one specific maker as an example. It is not so much semi-retired as it is (as you correctly pointed out) Ray's knives being undervalued.

Tony Bose comes along and really gets the slip joint market going. Others come in and expand the market. Then there is Ray producing a very high quality knife for what appears in the market place as very good value. People start buying his knives, the word spreads and you have the World Famous Ray Cover Sr.

Ray was building excellent knives 20 years ago when I first met him. He did little or no advertising, just built a great knife with a value price. Ta Da 30 years later he is a "hit."

Semi-retired still means you can get a knife from that maker. Not making another knife, for whatever reason.

WWG

 

[Les Robertson]

Hi JDM,

Jim Crowell was "the man" when I first started buying ABS knives. He will tell you himself that he lacks the discipline to work when he should. Jim's quality is still excellent but you can't maintain your position if you are not making knives on a regular basis.

Keith Kilby made some of the nicest Damascus Bowies I saw in the 1990's. He decided he liked shooting and making rifles better. Which is what he doing today.

John M Smith, I thought had the potential to be as good as any of them. I don't know if it was the stress or it became too much like work for him. But he is still tucked away in the farm lands of middle Illinois.

It is always interesting to take two of the knife annuals out, that are about 5 years apart and see how the knife knife world has changed...especially the names.

The game is getting faster every year.

WWG

 

[Stephen F]

If the ABS was more involved in promoting not only its techniques and history but its membership as well. Bill's work would be selling for much more than it is now.

At the recent Chicago Auction the knives went for what most in the room agreed were below market value.

Two knives did not meet reserve and were pulled. The two were a very rare Moran Folder.

The Second knife I found to be very interesting. It was not a Moran knife per se. It was the 2005 ABS Auction Knife. The knife featured 13" Damascus Blade. This was the last piece of Damascus that Bill ever made. Well known MS makers such as Jay Hendrickson, Joe Keeslar and Jerry Fisk worked on the knife as well. The sale price for this exceptional knife was $15,000. Bidding on this knife reached bout $12,500. The knife did not meet the reserve of $15,000. Can't blame the guy who owned it for wanting to break even.

Now some of you will say that the Chicago Show is not a hot bed for ABS type knives. However, it is a hot bed for very knowledgeable knife investors. Also you could bid for this knife on line from any where in the world. Then again maybe if Bruce Voyles auctioned it off at the Spirit Of Steel Show maybe it would have went for more money. Bruce is in the ABS Hall Of Fame.

For the ABS Makers and Collectors reading this...view this as a cautionary tale! If the best this knife could do would have been a 20% loss (not including the 10% buyer fee and seller fee). How much better can the next most famous maker in the ABS fare? This should be a little piece of information that you keep in an easily accessible part of your brain.


WWG
Custom Knife Sage!

WWG, I will be provocative because I know you are not averse to it nor bothered by it, so here goes ......"What If" everytime you say something like this you sow a seed of doubt in collectors minds, you are regarded by many as an authority on the matter ... does it not bother you that you may be instrumental in bringing about the outcome you predict, even if your intentions are to provoke a positive reaction?

On a less contentious note, it could be argued that the price a knife sold for two years ago at an Auction held at very popular ABS show, to effectively raise money for a charity (the ABS), is not a true "market price" in as far as the inflationary effect of the medium and purpose of the sale, combines to far exceed what an Investor or Collector would pay for the knife directly from the maker or makers! A similar soul authorship knife from any of makers who collaborated on that piece may have cost $4k to $9K depending on the maker ...... perhaps the incident speaks more about the value of collaborations and "event" pieces than it does about ABS knives per se!

Cheers,

Stephen

 

[Les Robertson]

Hi Coop,

I agree the auction brought several record prices. Obviously the Michael Walker selling for $34,000 was he high light of the evening. This individual was one of two who ran up the Ken Onion knives in the aftermarket. He was also instrumental in Phil Boguszewski's knives going up so much in the aftermarket. Now both Ken's and Phil's knives are starting to come down in the aftermarket. It is truly amazing how much one person can affect a makers work in the aftermarket. Obviously all the Walker owners now know he is in their market now. It will be interesting to see what happens to Walkers at the AKI. There is a good chance that the ROI on Walkers will now be better than Loveless knives. How much money will this pull out of the overall market for other custom knives that are sought after to buy and flip?

When you watch an auction like this you have to watch who is buying. Lots of dealers buying knives (which means they feel there is still room in them). Someone already brought up the point about the Warenski.

There was at least 1 person who seemed to be bidding up for particular reason. Don't ask, I won't tell you. For me it was worth my time there just to see the action unfold. Good intel is worth its weight in gold.

The video you showed was a nice Moran. There was one other a Damascus Hunter that I thought brought a good price. However two others were low and two others didn't meet the reserve. Overall not a good night for Bill's knives.

The high and low water marks were set for several knives that evening.

WWG

 

[jdm61]

Hi JDM,

Jim Crowell was "the man" when I first started buying ABS knives. He will tell you himself that he lacks the discipline to work when he should. Jim's quality is still excellent but you can't maintain your position if you are not making knives on a regular basis.

Keith Kilby made some of the nicest Damascus Bowies I saw in the 1990's. He decided he liked shooting and making rifles better. Which is what he doing today.

John M Smith, I thought had the potential to be as good as any of them. I don't know if it was the stress or it became too much like work for him. But he is still tucked away in the farm lands of middle Illinois.

It is always interesting to take two of the knife annuals out, that are about 5 years apart and see how the knife knife world has changed...especially the names.

The game is getting faster every year.

WWG

Interesting. That was the story that I heard bout Keith Kilby too. Someone told me that John Smith was contemplating getting back into the knife game at some level. You wonder if there is enough residual interest for him to sell wellor if he will essentially have to start all over again. I had read about Bill Moran and Bill Bagwell back in the late 70's in mags like SOF and the guns mags, but when I really started checking out knives, it was Jim Crowell, Rob Hudson, Al Pendray, Jay Hendrickson, Mark Sentz, Charlie Ochs and John Smith that whose knives forever got me hooked on the ABS. My first custom was a little Joe Flournoy fighter that I go at the '92 Guild show and still have. The one stock removal guy that I really liked was Ron Gaston and I am kicking myself for not buying one of his back then, but I was a bit short on cash.

 

[Les Robertson]

Hi Stephen,

I absolutely understand that what I say has the potential to bring about a change, both positive and negative. The same can be said for any influential person in any collectible market. When it comes to Loveless knives...When JW Denton speaks...people listen! When it comes to very high end folders...when Don Guild speaks people listen.

Just as when you, STeven, Roger, Peter, Kevin and Danbo speak about forged blades...people listen

Just as it is commonly held that if you were to try and make a knife you would have a better understanding of what is involved. The same is true for selling knives in the aftermarket. The same can be said for buying and selling knives in the aftermarket..there is no substitute for experience.

Collectors have to be aware of those makers who actually are concerned about their position in the after market. As this will benefit the collectors of their work as well. You are looking long term for a synergistic effect.

You yourself have actually witnessed the effect of a maker raising their prices to high to quickly and then seemingly disappearing from the custom knife market. Im talking a quality maker who does excellent work.

Yes Stephen I know my words have an effect on the custom knife market. My hope is to open the eyes of collectors to the reality of this market. I want them around for 50 years! The more collectors we have the better the knives will become. The more knives there will be to pick from.

Later this weekend I (and I'm sure several others) am/are being interviewed for an article "is any truth to the concern that the number of knifemakers is out pacing the number of new collectors or buyers in the market."

How would you answer this question Stephen?

WWG

 

[Les Robertson]

Hi Stephen,

I agree with you about the ABS 2005 Auction knife. Although I think $4K is a little low for a 13" bowie with a Mastodon Ivory handle. Especially since it was the last piece of Damascus that Bill ever made.

Yes, the knife was auctioned off for charity and in the after market now it has become obvious to the seller (who may not have bought the knife originally) that the knife is not worth what they paid for it.

While the knife was purchased in the spirit of helping the ABS, obviously the individual thought it would go up in price or at least hold its value. How do I know this?

Because he had a reserve on the knife to match the purchase price (even if he got 15K for the knife he would have still lost $1,500 to the sellers fee). I suspect no one was more surprised than him when the best bid was 20% under the reserve.

Now lets look at the other side of the coin. What if the knife had sold for $25,000. How long do you think it would have taken collectors of ABS members knives to get the buzz going about that? How long before a little article in Blade appeared about the realized price for the 2005 ABS Bowie.

Also, if this knife sold first, do you think the other Moran's would have brought more money? I believe the answer to that is yes.

Why? Because there would have been a perceived "up tick" in the Moran market.

WWG

 

[Durwood]

Hi Durwood,

You are using one specific maker as an example. It is not so much semi-retired as it is (as you correctly pointed out) Ray's knives being undervalued.

Tony Bose comes along and really gets the slip joint market going. Others come in and expand the market. Then there is Ray producing a very high quality knife for what appears in the market place as very good value. People start buying his knives, the word spreads and you have the World Famous Ray Cover Sr.

Ray was building excellent knives 20 years ago when I first met him. He did little or no advertising, just built a great knife with a value price. Ta Da 30 years later he is a "hit."

Semi-retired still means you can get a knife from that maker. Not making another knife, for whatever reason.

WWG

Thanks for you input on this WWG. I don't follow a lot of makers, and I mainly collect slipjoints, but I knew Ray's knives were an exceptional value the first time I met Ray about 10 years ago. They continue to be a fabulous value today-- even at aftermarket prices, IMO