Is "retired maker" a plus or a minus?

[RogerP]

Some darned good info in this thread from WWG and others - thanks guys.

Roger

 

[Kevin Jones]

NOTE:
If the ABS was more involved in promoting not only its techniques and history but its membership as well. Bill's work would be selling for much more than it is now.

At the recent Chicago Auction the knives went for what most in the room agreed were below market value.

Two knives did not meet reserve and were pulled. The two were a very rare Moran Folder.

The Second knife I found to be very interesting. It was not a Moran knife per se. It was the 2005 ABS Auction Knife. The knife featured 13" Damascus Blade. This was the last piece of Damascus that Bill ever made. Well known MS makers such as Jay Hendrickson, Joe Keeslar and Jerry Fisk worked on the knife as well. The sale price for this exceptional knife was $15,000. Bidding on this knife reached bout $12,500. The knife did not meet the reserve of $15,000. Can't blame the guy who owned it for wanting to break even.
Now some of you will say that the Chicago Show is not a hot bed for ABS type knives. However, it is a hot bed for very knowledgeable knife investors. Also you could bid for this knife on line from any where in the world. Then again maybe if Bruce Voyles auctioned it off at the Spirit Of Steel Show maybe it would have went for more money. Bruce is in the ABS Hall Of Fame.
For the ABS Makers and Collectors reading this...view this as a cautionary tale! If the best this knife could do would have been a 20% loss (not including the 10% buyer fee and seller fee). How much better can the next most famous maker in the ABS fare? This should be a little piece of information that you keep in an easily accessible part of your brain.

Again, this is not information for collectors. I know you buy what you like, etc.

The good news is, that if you can wait two years after a maker ceases to make knives you should be able to find some bargains.

I anticipate within the next 5 years you are going to see more and more world class knives coming up for sale from the 80's All Stars! Should be some real bargains there.

WWG
Custom Knife Sage!

Good points WWG and good counterpoints by Stephen.

But I would warn that not too much should be assumed in regard the future investment potential of ABS knives based on this one particular auction and the particular 2005 ABS Auction Bowie as it was initially sold at a show to benefit the ABS. And unless I'm mistaken the same bidder has walked away with the ABS Auction Knife each of the last several years.

Anyway, thanks WWG for your opinions and views as we are always IMO the better makers and collectors as the result of them.

 

[Joss]

And unless I'm mistaken the same bidder has walked away with the ABS Auction Knife each of the last several years.

How fascinating - I had no idea.

 

[Les Robertson]

Hi Kevin,

While the past does not always indicate what will happen in the future, it cannot be ignored.

The individual who bought the last 3 won a very large lottery several years ago and is not necessarily going to miss any meals because the knife did not sell. However, if he does in fact own all of the previous 3 years worth of ABS Auction Bowies. It speaks well for him to pull the knife and help to preserve the value of that knife and the others he owns. As I wrote before I don't know if he still owns the 2005 Knife, he may have sold it to someone else pre-auction.

Like I said, if the knife had sold for $25 K, everyone would be using that as an indicator to the future...you included. If that is fair, then it is also fair to note the knife did not sell. I finished a course on Options about two weeks ago so Im looking at technical analysis even more here lately.

WWG

 

[Les Robertson]

Hi Kevin,

But I would warn that not too much should be assumed in regard the future investment potential of ABS knives based on this one particular auction

Is there anyone who buys and sells more ABS knives than me?

If I thought this one auction sounded a "death knell" for ABS knives I would be dumping the knives I have. Instead Im taking delivery of another 10 at the SOS Show. Probably buy a few more while I am there.

Did you see the current Issue of Knives Illustrated with features on Tommy Gann and Gordon Graham? Check out who the writer is.

You know as well as anyone I think many of the ABS makers have a huge upside. I don't have a problem with the makers.

WWG

 

[Kevin Jones]

Hi Kevin,



Is there anyone who buys and sells more ABS knives than me?

If I thought this one auction sounded a "death knell" for ABS knives I would be dumping the knives I have. Instead Im taking delivery of another 10 at the SOS Show. Probably buy a few more while I am there.

Did you see the current Issue of Knives Illustrated with features on Tommy Gann and Gordon Graham? Check out who the writer is.

You know as well as anyone I think many of the ABS makers have a huge upside. I don't have a problem with the makers.

WWG

I'm right there with you brother.

Haven't seen the KI article featuring Tommy Gann yet. Is that the Dec 2007 issue? Can't wait, as IMO he's at the top tier of the "up and comers".

 

[Kevin Jones]

Hi Kevin,

While the past does not always indicate what will happen in the future, it cannot be ignored.

The individual who bought the last 3 won a very large lottery several years ago and is not necessarily going to miss any meals because the knife did not sell. However, if he does in fact own all of the previous 3 years worth of ABS Auction Bowies. It speaks well for him to pull the knife and help to preserve the value of that knife and the others he owns. As I wrote before I don't know if he still owns the 2005 Knife, he may have sold it to someone else pre-auction.

Like I said, if the knife had sold for $25 K, everyone would be using that as an indicator to the future...you included. If that is fair, then it is also fair to note the knife did not sell. I finished a course on Options about two weeks ago so Im looking at technical analysis even more here lately.

WWG

Yes, I was very interested in the Auction Bowie this past Blade, however soon realized I was swimming up river against a very strong current.

He's a great guy and good for the forged blade and the ABS. :thumbup:

Yep, you bet I would if it had gone the other way.

 

[Les Robertson]

Hi Kevin,

Looks like it will come out in October. Tommy is an exceptional talent. If we can just keep him away from the file!

WWG

 

[Kevin Jones]

Hi Kevin,

Looks like it will come out in October. Tommy is an exceptional talent. If we can just keep him away from the file!

WWG

Oh, I love that Tim Hancock inspired filework :thumbup:

 

[Les Robertson]

Everybody loves it until it comes time to pay for it.

WWG

 

[jdm61]

Hi Kevin,

While the past does not always indicate what will happen in the future, it cannot be ignored.

The individual who bought the last 3 won a very large lottery several years ago and is not necessarily going to miss any meals because the knife did not sell. However, if he does in fact own all of the previous 3 years worth of ABS Auction Bowies. It speaks well for him to pull the knife and help to preserve the value of that knife and the others he owns. As I wrote before I don't know if he still owns the 2005 Knife, he may have sold it to someone else pre-auction.

Like I said, if the knife had sold for $25 K, everyone would be using that as an indicator to the future...you included. If that is fair, then it is also fair to note the knife did not sell. I finished a course on Options about two weeks ago so Im looking at technical analysis even more here lately.

WWG

Why did Arthur have that knife up for auction? Personally, my favorite of the Moran era board knives is the bowie from '05. Call me crazy, but it really grabbed by attention.

 

[Les Robertson]

Hi Joe,

You would probably have to ask him. It was a no risk move on his part. If the knife went for $20 K, he would make some money, and at the same time increasing the value of his other ABS Auction knives. As long as he got $16,500 he would break even.

WWG

 

[Stephen F]

Hi Stephen,

.... Later this weekend I (and I'm sure several others) am/are being interviewed for an article "is any truth to the concern that the number of knifemakers is out pacing the number of new collectors or buyers in the market."

How would you answer this question Stephen?

WWG

Hi WWG, if you are still interested in my answer or rather my humble opinion, here it is.....

From my perspective this is a real issue, the effects of which are being felt specifically in the lower to mid market defined both in terms of price ($400 to $1900) and grade (field grade to simple presentation). My reasoning for this statement is as follows: (please note I am talking about large fixed blades and hunters)

• First of all, for my thoughts to make sense we have to accept that the growth rate of new and talented makers has been increasing, in percentage terms, faster than the rate of new collectors/buyers.
• If this is the accepted starting point then in its most simplest form the market has a higher level of quality supply which will naturally force down prices, both direct from makers, and more importantly the secondary market.
• Given that the majority of knives bought fall into the $400 to $1200 bracket, plus the fact that most new makers will price in this range, it is natural that the biggest effect will be here.
• The reason for the reduction in prices in the primary market is clear. The reason that this will affect the secondary market is two fold.
  
  [*]Firstly,in the past the availability of a next best alternative was limited, if you wanted a quality knife at a reasonable price you had to get on a small number of makers lists and wait. The alternative was to go to the secondary market and purchase a knife by one of those makers at a premium, either from other collectors or dealers. This helped develop and bolster the secondary market. But now, with a greater number of high quality new makers, often with very reasonable and short waiting times, the buyer has a much better next best alternative, i.e. a new knife from the primary market! - The result is lower demand in the secondary market.
  [*]The second effect on the secondary market is less direct, but just as important, that effect being a lessening of desirability. The collector (and, yes, even the investor) coverts desirability and scarcity - the increased availability of a high standard of knives in the main price bracket reduces their scarcity and ultimately their desirability.​
• So how does this all impact the market over $1200 and upto the $1900 level I mentioned? Well the reality is that the some of the newer makers can offer knives comparable to the more established masters, but at lower prices, but I should add that this is generally only in the less sophisticated and less complex pieces. The established masters will traditionally charge in the region of $1300 -$1900 price range. So you have the effect of a much cheaper next best alternative once more.
• Why is the secondary market so important if buyers are getting more for less? Simple - without a strong secondary market collectors will not perpetuate their collection and collecting habits, turnover of knives will stagnate and the market collapse!
• Of course you need the exceptions to prove the rule, and in this case I can think of two exceptions which also point the way for many Collectors, Investors, and very importantly Makers who want to survive the inevitable shake out.
• Before elaborating further I should say first and fore most, it is my belief, that a custom knifes value is a product of three primary factors : Quality , Scarcity, and Desirability. Desirability is in itself a function of the first two, but it is also influenced by originality and artistry. It is knives and makers that excel in a COMBINATION (very imp.) of these factors (Quality, Scarcity, Originality, Artistry) that will avoid the pitfalls of the current growth, by virtue of the fact that collectors/investors gravitate towards these elements in the knives they buy.
  

This is demonstrated by my two exceptions:

Firstly in the $400 to $1900 there are still knives that represent excellent targets for collectors and investors by virtue of their combined Scarcity and Quality. A prime example of these knives (though certainly not an exhaustive list) is the work of Dan Farr, Russ Andrews and probably Nick Wheeler. What do these three have in common? Superb quality, attention to detail, and just as importantly, scarcity - They are all part time, and they all maintain a high profile by satisfying their customers who then tell everyone else!

The second exception is the high end work of the full time masters such as Fisk, Newton, Hancock, Dean, Feugen et al. These guys utilise their acquired skills and reputations to produce artistry which is not available at the lower end, the time to make the pieces and the resultant prices preclude high volume and duplication. As a result they generate a high level of desirability and scarcity - again a magnate for many collectors/investors.​

So for me as a Collector (with an eye to the secondary market) I will focus on these two areas 1) The combination of Quality and Scarcity, and 2) High End Artistry. The makers have to follow the clues in the market and listen to people like you!

Cheers,

Stephen

 

[ptgdvc]

Stephen,

Thanks for your excellent and thoughtful analysis. :thumbup:

I think that another aspect needs needs to be entered into your market equation. The sales of many current makers, who have not established themselves in the highest tiers, will start to decline. Some of them will simply go out of business, because there are higher quality knives are available at comparable prices from the newer makers. It is called competition. C'est la vie!

If the collector base does not expand, the number of full time makers will not expand either, in the long run.

 

[jdm61]

Good points, all as far as thecollector market goes. I know that the market for the "high speed. low drag" user knives has gone though the roof in recent years, much as the high tech "assault" weapon and "plastic pistol" market has done in the last couple of decades. What I am hoping for is maybe a little sub-market for more traditional looking users that would be analogous to the amazing growth of the market for tradtional type guns like the Pre-64 Winchester Model 70 "Classic" line, the Kimber and Dakota rifles and, most notably, the market for 1911 pistols in recent years. EVERYONE is now making a 1911 variant....even some of the European companies.......and I just read that Remington will be producing a bolt rifle based on the '98 Mauser action now that Winchester has gone out of production.

 

[Kevin Jones]

Stephen, I don't think it could have been put much better. I'm in total agreement. :thumbup:

 

[Thor I am]

When he was still active, Fighters were $500.00 and are now $2,500.00, a subhilt was $750.00 - $1,000.00.
They are now $3,000.00 - $3,500.00
and they are snatched up almost immediately

NOTE: This is for people who are looking to make money on the custom knives they buy.

1) Retired/Deceased is good for about 18 months. After that the market will flatten out.

Exception....George Herron. George did so much for the custom knife community and was respected and loved by so many, his work will continue to go up past his 18 month mark. If you were ever fortunate enough to spend some "quality" time with George you know what I mean. I sure do miss him. I suspect Loveless will fall into this category as well. For different reasons than for George.

I usually wouldn't want to post a knife price (as in "what I paid") on the forum, but I am just itching to ask this question so I'll make an exception.

I recently picked up a George Herron fighter. The blade is in great shape and is approx 5.5 inches long. The handle is also in good shape but only made of so-so wood (I can't tell what kind of wood it actually is). I paid between $1600 and $1700 for it (can't recall the exact amount right now).

So did I pick up a bargain, pay too much or am I in just about the right territory?
This wasn't an easy decision - to spend this kind of money on a knife that I had only seen in semi-decent photos, but I figured I wouldn't get many chances to pick up a Herron double-edged fighter. The knife turned out to be in good shape and I am quite happy with my purchase.

I am usually not into knives for their investment value, but nonetheless, like most other people I don't like paying more than something is worth.

I'd love some feedback from my fellow, more-knowledgeable forumites on this.

Thanks, Thor.

 

[Thor I am]

NOTE: This is for people who are looking to make money on the custom knives they buy.

1) Retired/Deceased is good for about 18 months. After that the market will flatten out.

Exception....George Herron.

WWG,

Follow-up question to the above:

What about Rigney - where does he rate in all of this?

He retired a while back yet his knives still seem to pull premium dollar on the dealer sites.
I have to admit though, I don't know how these prices compare to his pre-retirement prices.

Thanks,
Thor

 

[Thor I am]

John M Smith, I thought had the potential to be as good as any of them. I don't know if it was the stress or it became too much like work for him. But he is still tucked away in the farm lands of middle Illinois.

I am not picking on WWG here (HONESTLY ), I just found that I had the most questions / comments to his posts.


I spoke a few months ago with John. I met him at a show about 1.5 years ago and have to say he is one of the nicest knifemakers I have met (so far). Very likeable fellow!

I picked up one of his knives via a dealer site a couple of years ago (CKC - WWG, you may have heard of it ). It is a sleek, long, Talon-shaped, blued damascus knife - still one of my favorites. I tried both at the show and in my subsequent phone call to have him make me a companion knife, but no dice so far .

He seems to have gotten disenchanted at some point in the past with some of the politics of the knife industry/business. Can't really blame the guy. Politics of business usually show the nasty, seedy-underbelly, that can lurk just beneath the surface. It is often enough to turn anyone off. I know it is the part of my job that I dislike the most (and "dislike" is definitely an under-statment).

I recently saw a picture of a really nice Smith knife here on the forum (I think it was from Coop - taken at the Blade show). I was hoping it marked a return of his to the industry but then saw it was an older piece, photographed for a collector. Bummer. His return would be good.

 

[Les Robertson]

Hi Thor,

You are bordering on owing me money now.

The Herron, you are ok (probably a little too much right now, but the market will catch up with you).

Willie Rigney...WHO? Exceptional maker. Most of his work for about two years before he retired now resides in Japan.

Hear a rumor through a friend he is thinking about coming back. Would love to get some more knives from Willie. The problem will be can he live with the prices that people will want to pay for his work. He was on top of the heap when he quit.

Some of his old collectors will initially pick up some knives from him. But getting new buyers to step up to buy an "unknown" makers work may be slow going. He has been out of knife making for at least a decade...long time these days.

As for John M. Smith. It wasn't politics it was lack of drive and discipline He is now making "Bronze Roses"....really nice ones from what I hear. Still waiting on him to rehandle a knife of mine that he has had for almost 12 years. You are lucky, I can't get him to return a phone call. John had the potential to be one of the best, it's too bad.

WWG