Knife Bubble?

RamZar

RamZar

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Joined
Mar 3, 2013
Messages
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I've seen a steady increase in prices the past two years and even more so the past six months.

Additionally, the number and variety of custom and mid-tech knives the past six months on BladeHQ, KnifeCenter and GP Knives is astounding!

Also, many knives that I used to see being snapped up immediately are now languishing in inventories with price reductions.

The variety and level of competition has also seen a noticeable increase.

Are we in a knife bubble which is about to burst?
 
I would go so far as to say we're in a titanium framelock bubble. As for when it will burst, who knows. I don't own any, so I guess I'll be okay.
 
When folks start buying knives as investments and reselling them a year later for a profit, then we might have a bubble. I don't think that's happening. This is simple supply and demand. If supply is increasing and prices are increasing too, then it stands to reason that demand must be increasing. Why? No clue. Could be that hipsters need a new fetish after they bought up all the Pappy Van Winkle. Could be the popularity of The Walking Dead or The Hunger Games.

I suspect any increase in makers is a combination of globalization (foreign knifemakers being able to more easily sell here) and the rise of artisan business owners after the economy went in the toilet.
 
I don't see it as a bubble. It's the logical progression of discussions about custom, mid-tech, and high-end production that we went through. And never really answered.

Knifemakers and technology have just gotten very sophisticated with the internet and modern communication generally. More potentially good makers have such tremendous access to what's going on, that there is more of it every day.

Look at all the new materials and young people modifying and customizing, and they all seem to move into actual knifemaking.

I think the real measure of the industry is the strength of manufacturing, including offshore. Factories producing such tremendous quantities must be selling them somewhere, or they would throttle back.
 
JWheel said:
When folks start buying knives as investments and reselling them a year later for a profit, then we might have a bubble. I don't think that's happening. This is simple supply and demand. If supply is increasing and prices are increasing too, then it stands to reason that demand must be increasing. Why? No clue. Could be that hipsters need a new fetish after they bought up all the Pappy Van Winkle. Could be the popularity of The Walking Dead or The Hunger Games.

I suspect any increase in makers is a combination of globalization (foreign knifemakers being able to more easily sell here) and the rise of artisan business owners after the economy went in the toilet.
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This is exactly what happened with the vintage collectable guitar market a decade ago. All the collectable instruments were being bought up by non player collectors as investments, and the prices went through the ceiling. When it got to unsustainable levels, the bubble burst, and the market leveled out. Although collector pieces are still out of reach of the average player.

I don't think this is what's happening in the knife market. There just seems to be a growing interest in the knife community, as a hobby thing IMHO.
 
In the past few years retail prices have increased and MAP has been established and enforced in my eyes.I have noticed some dealer exclusives are not moving as fast as they used to due to the price increases is what I reckon..There seems to be more and more LE and exclusives with premium pricing than I seem to remember in the past.I tend to think there is a Bubble.....$160 Gets you what $100 did a few years ago ?I am talking about production knives....
 
Overall, what you are saying is true. Knives in general are getting better and better, and more makers are appearing producing amazing product.

Right now I am seeing somewhat of a glut of awesome knives for sale, I think it may have to do with bladeshow ending, and many of the knives bought there are now hitting the open market.

I do think this bubble will benefit consumers, as even if you never buy customs, the current climate has driven production companies to up their game and collaborate with more names. Good for the end user.
 
I wouldn't call it a bubble. But I see more and more higher end knives being offered for sale. I understand people like me buying them, but that alone can't justify production and the diversity continues. The steels being used are higher cost to justify the higher prices and satisfy knife nut desires. It will slow down and stabilize. Sometimes I wonder who is making all the money to buy these toys. I know for myself that my prices have not increased in 5 or 6 years and there continues to be pressure to reduce prices in my line of business. So, we'll see?
 
Some manufacturers have done really well for the consumer: witness the 2015 models from ZT. Hard for me to tell the difference in quality from their $200 folders and other makers' $400 mid-techs.

But I am also seeing lots of other even more expensive knives that, out of the box, show obvious lock, pivot or other QC issues. I have a drawer filled with new knives that need to be returned for warranty service.

This is making me more cautious about buying many of the expensive new models.
 
It looks like that there is more money in the game then some years before.
So one explanation could be that, there are more people paritcipating because on financial interest, than the topic itself.
Why?, Propably because tratitional investments aren't what they used to be and the past (of knives) looked promising.
Capitalism with all it's opportunities and risks.
The game has become more complex and faster.
red mag
 
Cost, more than ever, has more to do with prestige than with the materials, labor and workmanship.

I believe this is partly due to the culture surrounding Facebook Instagram and the like where the knife hobby seems to be concerned more with showing off knives than with using them.

Dealers, too, are complicit in the high prices, often charging $1000s more for a scarce, desirable knife than what it was acquired for.
 
RamZar said:
I've seen a steady increase in prices the past two years and even more so the past six months.

Additionally, the number and variety of custom and mid-tech knives the past six months on BladeHQ, KnifeCenter and GP Knives is astounding!

Also, many knives that I used to see being snapped up immediately are now languishing in inventories with price reductions.

The variety and level of competition has also seen a noticeable increase.

Are we in a knife bubble which is about to burst?
Click to expand...

I mentioned this about a 6-9 months back. Seems that everyone nowadays is a knife designer and having a machine shop make their knives for them. I find it somewhat scary the way inflation hit the market here all at once. It's almost as if there was a 15-20% hike across the board in many brands, but not all. a few people have sent me PMs in the past couple months asking why their stuff isn't selling or how can they sell their stuff and be more successful in moving items they no longer want or need. The market is absolutely saturated with knives from every corner it seems. Premium materials and steels are becoming all too common and what once make some knives great has been made mundane. Quality has not gotten any better, it may in fact have dropped a little in some manufacturers.
 
Lots of nice knives. I get a bit worried, as there are new framelocks coming out that look very well done, and they are half the price of some of my mid-techs. Makes it difficult to get a decent buck out of my mid-techs...even though they sit NIB and I just admire them. OTOH, it gives me a chance to get some very nice knives...Slysz Bowie(have it), the Positron, the Peter Rassenti Nirvana.
We do live in amazing times...(I do think I've heard this before).
:)
 
The term bubble doesn't really apply to me. My collection is not an investment. If the so called bubble burst tomorrow, and my collection was worth zero, it would make no difference to me. I buy knives because I like them and because I use them.

CapitalizedLiving said:
I would go so far as to say we're in a titanium framelock bubble. As for when it will burst, who knows. I don't own any, so I guess I'll be okay.
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If the titanium frame lock bubble bursts it will not change a thing for my titanium frame locks. They will get used just the same as they always do :thumbup:

Now, if we are talking about prices for knives going up to the point where people won't buy them, yes, things are getting expensive. I am more talking about production. ZT and BM enforcing MAP is a good example. I see prices on the exchange for used knives that I paid new a couple years ago. It certainly is not a function of simple inflation. If this is some sort of bubble, the good thing for knife nuts is that if it bursts, inexpensive quality knives will flood the secondary market!
 
craytab said:
The term bubble doesn't really apply to me. My collection is not an investment. If the so called bubble burst tomorrow, and my collection was worth zero, it would make no difference to me. I buy knives because I like them and because I use them.
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Me too!
 
I don't flip knives for profit, I use them.

If I get bored of one I have, I give it to a friend.

Bubble? Not bothering me.
 
I could not agree more Craytab. All my knives are bought to be used. I even have a Kersaw Tilt tha has seen plenty of edc tasks. I had no idea that the Tilt would be worth what it is or so hard to find but doesnt matter to me. As far as im concerned its made to cut stuff so thats what it does. Bubble or not we definately have some great knives in production and more great knives to come. It would however be nice if the prices were to drop alittle closer to what they were but then im sure thats just wishfull thinking
 
RevDevil said:
I mentioned this about a 6-9 months back. Seems that everyone nowadays is a knife designer and having a machine shop make their knives for them. I find it somewhat scary the way inflation hit the market here all at once. It's almost as if there was a 15-20% hike across the board in many brands, but not all. a few people have sent me PMs in the past couple months asking why their stuff isn't selling or how can they sell their stuff and be more successful in moving items they no longer want or need. The market is absolutely saturated with knives from every corner it seems. Premium materials and steels are becoming all too common and what once make some knives great has been made mundane. Quality has not gotten any better, it may in fact have dropped a little in some manufacturers.
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Absolutely. The most concerning thing is that the overwhelming majority of these knives being brought to market is that they are mostly cosmetic novelties rather than functional innovations. The market is being saturated with endless variations of what are cosmetically very different knives but, when viewed purely by function, are essentially the same dang knife. It's turning into a pocket jewelry thing more than pursuit of crafting a high performance practical tool. Pocket jewelry is fine, and has its place but I can't help but feel as if the direction of the industry as a whole is kind of setting false priorities. Just my feelings on it though.
 
JWheel said:
Could be that hipsters need a new fetish after they bought up all the Pappy Van Winkle.
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Winner. Just like the "lumbersexual" thing. Same deal. They want bicycles from the 1950's, electric cars from 2015, thrift shop jackets over vintage tee shirts they paid hundreds for, and sebenzas. Battle scarred mahogany desks that Kerouac "may, quite possible, have used..",all the decent booze, and a Cuban they'd choke on if the actually ever inhaled. Blades are "a thing", now. Hopefully just enough of them get hooked to keep a decent amount of the newer makers going.
 
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