Knife Bubble?

Honestly, I've lost a lot of interest in the hobby since knives started costing costing a mortgage payment for no apparent reason.

Used to be $800 got you something special from a maker with a legacy and reputation. Now every page of new knives at online retailers is full of titanium flippers by people/brands I've never heard of that cost that much for reasons I can't comprehend. Not to mention that many of them are ridiculous looking.

It destroys the market.
 
JWheel said:
When folks start buying knives as investments and reselling them a year later for a profit, then we might have a bubble. I don't think that's happening. This is simple supply and demand. If supply is increasing and prices are increasing too, then it stands to reason that demand must be increasing. Why? No clue. Could be that hipsters need a new fetish after they bought up all the Pappy Van Winkle. Could be the popularity of The Walking Dead or The Hunger Games.

I suspect any increase in makers is a combination of globalization (foreign knifemakers being able to more easily sell here) and the rise of artisan business owners after the economy went in the toilet.
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excellent observations.
i was trying to remember the name of that funky whiskey, you reminded me
Pappy Van Winkle,lol

buzz
 
I've noticed that I've been having a hard time selling the excess of my collection. I just recently sold a Spyderco Blue Nishijin Damascus Stretch for $175 net - afterwards, the guy asked "why so cheap?"

I told him it was because it was lightly used, which is true, but I didn't note that I had been trying to sell it at that price for months.

I have an 0560 BNIB for sale for $175. A year ago, that would have disappeared in a second. I have a free discontinued $15 lanyard bundled with it and nobody has even feigned an interest.

On the flip side, I've seen items at prices way lower than I've ever imagined seeing them, which has made a couple of my keepers really fantastic values too.

I honestly hope it's temporary and not indicative of something negative for us as a whole. The only reason I can afford this hobby is that I patiently wait until I see something at a good enough price that I will at least break even if it doesn't work out for me - but I'm getting down to the wire here. I'm losing money more often than I break even, and I'm having to be crazy firm about my prices because of it. I might have to take a break from it all for a while until the market levels out.

It's a depressing notion - I've grown to enjoy my revolving-door collection style. It's like collecting all the knives at once, but not having to store them all. Anything I'm not going to use for a while goes out in a flatrate box, and I have pictures and memories to keep afterwards! Then, new ones come it, the stable of users changes a little bit, and more go out. It keeps things fresh and exciting, but I can't afford to keep it up if this trend continues...
 
J85909266 said:
Honestly, I've lost a lot of interest in the hobby since knives started costing costing a mortgage payment for no apparent reason.

Used to be $800 got you something special from a maker with a legacy and reputation. Now every page of new knives at online retailers is full of titanium flippers by people/brands I've never heard of that cost that much for reasons I can't comprehend. Not to mention that many of them are ridiculous looking.

It destroys the market.
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Literally page after page, in the new arrivals sections, of all these customs and mid techs (some you'd rarely if ever heard of) at inflated prices:


Also, plenty of CRK, Hinderer, Strider and Shirogorov to go around these days! Shirogorov prices have been dropping quite a bit but considering the exchange rate of rubles to dollars you'd think F95 prices would be down to the levels of 2.5 years ago...
 
Buy knives to enjoy them and be prepared to lose money. Few will succeed in making good profit from buying and selling knives and knives with the potential to generate good profits are very expensive to start off with anyway. Either go very serious and pay big $, or just enjoy the ride and take the losses. Sub-$1000 knives have no real long term value so don't let them ruin your day when they lose value.
 
Interesting topic.
The entry of more money sure adds to the pace.
That leads to several developements. Some more desirable than others.
New materials, new designs appear because the market demands.
Even if we do not like all this, diversification develops.
In the long run this enriches the topic itself.
Isn't it difficult these days to keep informed (up to date)?
I find i have to focus or be happy with an overview.
red mag
 
I've enjoyed knives but a few years ago I got serious about this hobby. Back then, I use to dream of a Chris Reeve blade and dread the price tag. Now a Chris Reeve knife is a deal in my opinion when compared to prices of other frame locks on the market. I finally had to set a limit of what I was willing to pay for a single knife. Titanium and carbon fiber just doesn't justify a $800 price tag for me. If we are in a knife bubble, the market will correct itself, it always does. By the way, I did buy a Chris Reeve Startac and a 25, great knives.
 
Without innovation, we would all be sporting the same Buck 110's we had as kids.
Exotic materials like Titanium, carbon fiber, new locking mechanisms including frame/liner locks, advanced CPM techniques, etc, have all contributed to where we are today with innovative designs and materials. New custom makers and their custom and midtech offerings have upped the game forcing large manufacturers to up their game to keep up with market demands. Case in point are the ZT offerings of the last couple of years. It's a direct result of custom makers upping the status quo. That's the way I see it anyway. I don't see it as a bubble market, more of a golden age knifemakers to market their skills. I don't see a problem with overbuilt knives tacticool knives but there's a market for it. It may not be my cup of tea wich it certainly isn't. I think it's downright ugly, but hey some people like it. I let my wallet and purchasing speak for what I designs I feel is worth my time and money. Free market will dictate whether those companies will survive or if it will go down in flames. What I do like, however, is the options these knifemakers present to the marketplace and knife enthusiasts in general.


Same with the beer industry. Smaller craft makers creating and innovating new brews for everyone to enjoy is taking big market share from the old brewers in St Louis (Budweiser) and Milwaukee. It's not a bubble market and it behooves the big makers to innovate or lose market share. It's a great time to be a knife enthusiast as it is to be a beer enthusiast.

This reminds me of the old saying (which is my absolute favorite)....
"Do what you always do, and you gonna get what you always got."

My $0.02 anyway, ymmv.
 
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Comeuppance said:
I honestly hope it's temporary and not indicative of something negative for us as a whole. The only reason I can afford this hobby is that I patiently wait until I see something at a good enough price that I will at least break even if it doesn't work out for me - but I'm getting down to the wire here. I'm losing money more often than I break even, and I'm having to be crazy firm about my prices because of it. I might have to take a break from it all for a while until the market levels out.

It's a depressing notion - I've grown to enjoy my revolving-door collection style. It's like collecting all the knives at once, but not having to store them all. Anything I'm not going to use for a while goes out in a flatrate box, and I have pictures and memories to keep afterwards! Then, new ones come it, the stable of users changes a little bit, and more go out. It keeps things fresh and exciting, but I can't afford to keep it up if this trend continues...
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I tried doing the revolving door approach with firearms for about 10 years. What I learned was that on average, I lost money, but I had fun. So, with knives, selling has never even entered the picture for me. If I don't like them or I decide I like something better, the knife gets dumped in my knife rubbermaid tub along with a lot of other boxed knives. I am not in this hobby for money or even to try out everything I feel like messing with.

Without innovation, we would all be sporting the same Buck 110's we had as kids. Exotic materials like Titanium, carbon fiber, new locking mechanisms including frame/liner locks, advanced CPM techniques, etc, have all contributed to where we are today with innovative designs and materials. New custom makers and their custom and midtech offerings have upped the game forcing large manufacturers to up their game to keep up with market demands. Case in point are the ZT offerings of the last couple of years. It's a direct result of custom makers upping the status quo. That's the way I see it anyway. I don't see it as a bubble market, more of a golden age knifemakers to market their skills. I don't see a problem with overbuilt knives tacticool knives but there's a market for it. It may not be my cup of tea wich it certainly isn't. I think it's downright ugly, but hey some people like it. I let my wallet and purchasing speak for what I designs I feel is worth my time and money. Free market will dictate whether those companies will survive or if it will go down in flames. What I do like, however, is the options these knifemakers present to the marketplace and knife enthusiasts in general.
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Some good points here, Stog75.

Has nothing to do with a "bubble" which is probably not an appropriate term for a knife topic unless knives are purchased as collection pieces and resale. I have zero interest in trying to make money from this hobby. I feel when I buy a knife, I use it or whatever, the money is gone, flushed, and time to start thinking about the next one. :D

Cost is still very important and I agree with the mortgage payment comment even though for most of us, that's an exaggeration.
 
I was pretty shocked when BM raised their prices by about 30% over night.:eek: BM knives that used to be out of stock now linger.
I think it maybe more about increased competition and possibly many people having less expendable funds .
 
gdwtvb said:
With ebay and the internet, any fool with a credit card can try to be the next forum god. An amazing display of Military knives is much cheaper than a tricked out vette.
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I actually use a tricked-out vette as my knife block. The ones poking through the roof on the driver's side are a little scary when driving over speed bumps, but totally worth it.
 
RamZar said:
There's nothing wrong with "cosmetic novelties" and it's great to have that extra flair if you so desire. As a matter of fact, I think it's a significant part of the industry.

Novelties in material including composites is a way to have lighter and tougher knives.

Functional novelties are usually met with skepticism if not outright derision. For instance, the recent LionSteel TRE and Zero Tolerance 0999 folders which won awards at the 2015 Blade Show were characterized by some as gimmicky but I look at them as innovative.
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Note that I specifically stated that there's nothing wrong with those cosmetic novelties in knives. Cosmetic meaning only cosmetic and not a design decision that impacts function. :)

The problem is not so much when artistic flare or different cosmetic variations of a knife or class of knives is offered. It's when that aspect takes priority over the functionality of the knife as a useful tool. There are many knives out there that even sacrifice functionality in favor of novel appearance. I like my tools to be pretty, sure, but only if they, first and foremost, do their job well. A glass hammer is pretty, but it's a clear (pardon the pun) sacrifice in functionality. Now once again that's not to say that I think that such knives shouldn't exist or anything like that, but it seems as though the chief concern of an increasing number of designers these days is making the knife look crazy or different before they even consider the functional aspects and I think that's putting the cart before the horse a bit. I'm of the school of thought that a tool should be designed for function first and foremost, and if you can then incorporate visually distinctive embellishments that's great. I'm just a bit tired of seeing $800 folders with jazzed up handles and curves that don't serve any purpose with a stubby little saber grind on absurdly thick stock. It's not a knife at that point--it's an embellished folding cold chisel. When functional performance is an afterthought of the design it tells me that either the designer or the market has forgotten what a knife is for. Possibly both.

Ugly and doesn't work < pretty and doesn't work < ugly and works < pretty and works. :D
 
There are a number of reasons for a perceived bubble. I don't profess to know all the reasons, but here's my take on one contributing factor. It seems that more and more flippers are buying more and more high demand,limited production items, and selling them at grossly inflated prices. There are more people willing to pay insane prices in order to be in the "cool club." Add to this, the burgeoning Auctions Market by many of the more popular makers, as well as the flippers. When enough people refuse to buy at over-inflated prices, there will be a correction. I've seen it before, we'll see it again.
 
Two and a half months after the start of this thread the number of variety of customs and midtechs on dealers' "New Arrivals" is even more astounding!

A couple of years ago these were nowhere or rarely to be found.

Of course, many have ramped up production, many new players, custom makers getting into the midtech business, competition from overseas, etc.

Check out the "New Arrivals" at some dealers and you'll see page after page of these:

http://www2.knifecenter.com/shop/new-items

http://www.bladehq.com/cat--New-Arrivals--153

http://www.gpknives.com/products-new.html
 
All very true. It's going to be overrun, even more overpriced and these will sit on shelves. The mid tech fad is going to hurt more than help. When ZT and others can make all TI for a fraction of the cost. Yes, there are some great makers still, mids and productions to be had. Either way consumers will speak with their wallets.
 
DJC72 said:
Back then, I use to dream of a Chris Reeve blade and dread the price tag. Now a Chris Reeve knife is a deal in my opinion when compared to prices of other frame locks on the market.
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Man oh man, ain't that the truth!
 
What's needed in the current market is more market segment focus from retailers. There's such thing as too many choices and when there's too many items to dig through making a decision gets more difficult.
 
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