Offer Survive Knives on Auctions? Win Win for Guy and Everyone?

[mlmcasual]

Just a thought.. humor me..

I have several Knives on preorder that will take a year to get.. For those times I want a survive knife NOW and not wait a year, I satisfy my craving by paying scalpers on Ebay.. Survive knife scalping has become pretty prolific and has corrected the supply/demand forces to a predictable 40% MORE Then Survive's retail price. But that's 40% profit that is going to a scalper not to Guy. Seems a shame..

So... what if, Guy kept his current preorder system.. AND for every batch of new knives being made, GUY makes X% extra and those X% extra Guy himself auctions off.. either his own system or ebay store...

So for example.. Guy gets 200 preorders for the 7/7.... then once he closes the preorder, knowing that he has 200 prepaid for.. Guy then orders material for an extra 20 7/7. After the 220 are made.. GUY auctions off the extra 20 7/7s over a month 5 per week. So now Guy now cuts out the scalpers and HE is getting the extra 40% scalpers were getting.. It's a win win... You have the preorder crowd that can wait out long lead times and get the low guaranteed price.. and you have those that don't like waiting and willing to pay whatever the MARKET decides it's worth get a crack at it on an auctions for a month.. Everyone is happy.. guy is making more money..


Just a thought..

 

[Revolverrodger]

I don't think it fits the way Survive! knives operates

 

[Texas_toothpick]

Sounds liget. Except you're still waiting until the pre order is finished. How does that solve waiting, or did I miss that?

 

[chiral.grolim]

Those who scalp early got knives via pre-order/sale or Monday sales.
The secondary market price is driven by supply/demand - Guy only makes so many of these, they take a while to get to folk, and some folk are willing to pay an inflated price to get one if they missed out. *shrug*
If Guy raises prices, that would cut into demand - fewer people would be able to justify the cost for his knives. That wouldn't affect those paying scalper prices, but how many more average customers would Guy lose? From what I've seen, secondary sales are NOT very common vs direct sales through S!K. S!K is not really missing out on much... not as much as they are missing by simply have too low of SUPPLY to meet the demand, so potential customers are turning to other options. If/When they are able to increase supply, scalper prices will fall by themselves.

S!K auctioning knives on Ebay vs selling direct would cost time/effort, paying Ebay fees, etc. Would it raise additional revenue? Sure, but not as much as simply having more knives to sell direct to customers.

 

[Silver Needle]

mlm, you clearly have an innovative mind! :thumbup:

It's been said before that Guy's mission in life is to give people the best knife he possibly can at the most reasonable price he can. He's truly a man for the people. As much as I like the idea of Guy (and Ellie) getting paid better, I just don't see Guy doing it.

Scalpers really do make me sick. As SURVIVE!'s output increases the secondary market prices will have to even out.

 

[mlmcasual]

Those who scalp early got knives via pre-order/sale or Monday sales.
The secondary market price is driven by supply/demand - Guy only makes so many of these, they take a while to get to folk, and some folk are willing to pay an inflated price to get one if they missed out. *shrug*
If Guy raises prices, that would cut into demand - fewer people would be able to justify the cost for his knives. That wouldn't affect those paying scalper prices, but how many more average customers would Guy lose? From what I've seen, secondary sales are NOT very common vs direct sales through S!K. S!K is not really missing out on much... not as much as they are missing by simply have too low of SUPPLY to meet the demand, so potential customers are turning to other options. If/When they are able to increase supply, scalper prices will fall by themselves.

S!K auctioning knives on Ebay vs selling direct would cost time/effort, paying Ebay fees, etc. Would it raise additional revenue? Sure, but not as much as simply having more knives to sell direct to customers.

Take another look at Ebay/CompletedListings/GSOKNIVES you will see an exponential increase in the number of gso NEWER knives being scalped. Used to be lucky to see one a month now you are seeing Several a Week! and they are going for 40% markup.. ie.. http://www.ebay.com/itm/NEW-Survive...736383?hash=item1a1030157f:g:thsAAOSwHgVW7KE3

Point is, it's not a question of IF.. Scalping IS already happened and increasing.. mark my words... Lots of of people out there will see an opportunity and invest in scalping when there is a consistent lack of supply.. What you will (and are starting to see) is scalpers will start buying more and more preorders and selling on auctions.. This will have the effect of maintaining or even make the lead times longer thus driving UP the scalping market and driving DOWN the legitimate preorder crowds.. Think about it.. what's the down side to scalpers? Survive has shown it is not going to grow production to meet demand, they are content with the levels they are at.. anyone saying the contrary really hasn't been following the past several years. That's not meant as an indictment or criticism.. just stating a fact.

You watch,, scalper market will grow, legit preorders will shrink.. Who has more incentive.. someone that has to pay up front and wait for a year to get their product.. or a scalper that invests money now with a good chance of 40% return on investment in ONE year.. I sure don't know where I can get that kind of return on investment with little risk..
Point is, I fear it will be a downward spiral.. more people will catch on (and you already see this starting).. So to curb out of control scalping, that's why I was saying it wouldn't be a bad idea for Guy to cut out the scalping by doing the auctioning himself to stabilize supply demand.. If guy had 10% extra that gets auctioned off it creates a known dependable source that will curtail the unknown out of control supply to demand that causes the scalping market..

Well, this is all just my theory and op.. you can see in year from now what happens..

For the record.. even though I have enough cash I could easily put a few grand into scalping scheme and buy tons of pre-orders .. I refuse to on principle.. but as sure as there are millions of online scammers that troll Ebay, and grandmas' for a buck.. I can see this already has started happening.. Full disclosure I lusted after a 2016 gso 5.1 and realizing I had a better chance of winning the lottery then buying one outright, I turned to buying one from a scalper.. (I know shame on me right.. ) and that's when I started looking at the Sellers history on these knives and saw these were not your average bladeforums fans whose wife made them sell their latest toy.. no, this was hardcore fishing-scammer-shiller-scalper types.. Sent a chill to my bone, and that's the motivation behind this thread...

 

[XtianAus]

I would never buy from a scalper/second-hand market. I much rather have a much longer waiting period and see my money go to those who deserve it (the company).

I think a lot of people^ could buy a whole lot of pre-orders or say for example the limited busse supplies and then making a killing from the re-sales. But out of principle they do not...that's the people i appreciate.

Sometimes people need to sell their second-hand knives for various reasons which is fine
But those that buy just so that they can make a large and greedy profit from them....screw those guys

 

[chiral.grolim]

Take another look at ... you will see an exponential increase in the number of gso NEWER knives being scalped. Used to be lucky to see one a month now you are seeing Several a Week! and they are going for 40% markup...

There have been 10 completed listings for GSOs on ebay in the last 2 weeks.

10 knives in 2 weeks... and 7 of those 10 were discontinued knives (older models).

Scalping IS already happened and increasing.. mark my words... Lots of of people out there will see an opportunity and invest in scalping when there is a consistent lack of supply.. What you will (and are starting to see) is scalpers will start buying more and more preorders and selling on auctions...

Pre-orders are there for everybody, flippers can pre-order as many as they like, as can everyone else. It's an investment *shrug* Make yourself an unofficial S!K 'dealer' if you want by pre-ordering LOADS and then trying to flip them for 40% profit... that'll take a lot of investment, but you'd have to be careful not to flood the market yourself Again, supply/demand. You don't want to pay scalper prices, buy direct.

This will have the effect of maintaining or even make the lead times longer thus driving UP the scalping market and driving DOWN the legitimate preorder crowds.. Think about it.. what's the down side to scalpers? Survive has shown it is not going to grow production to meet demand, they are content with the levels they are at.. anyone saying the contrary really hasn't been following the past several years. That's not meant as an indictment or criticism.. just stating a fact.

Yup, I'm definitely a newbie that hasn't been following along

10 knives in 2 weeks on the bay...

...invests money now with a good chance of 40% return on investment in ONE year.. I sure don't know where I can get that kind of return on investment with little risk..

This I agree with, a good price for what you get, and easy to re-sell if it doesn't suit you :thumbup:

it wouldn't be a bad idea for Guy to cut out the scalping by doing the auctioning himself to stabilize supply demand..

But that doesn't fly, the scalping would come from the pre-orders that would be in 10X greater supply, it would easily out-strip the few knives that S!K would try to auction for their own, those few would be gone in seconds to the scalpers who would simply flip them again. When you control the supply, you control the price.

But see, S!K controls the supply. 10 knives in 2 weeks selling at a premium on the bay. Compared to how many of each model from Survive! ?

If S!K wanted to increase profits, they'd raise the price on ALL their offerings which would make the scalpers have to charge even MORE for their profits which would drive away more customers. *shrug* I don't see 10 knives in 2 weeks as a scalping problem.

 

[mlmcasual]

The numbers are still low now.. 10 in 2 weeks is still very few but I think it was a lot fewer before that.. I am only throwing out a prediction we will see in the future progression..

But speaking of numbers.. does anyone know the actual numbers of knives that are sold on monday's? Or how many knives are sold of the most recent knife models? I still believe (predict) there will be a lot more preorder scalpers in the future and it is jusssst starting. The point of the auction is just an idea to curtail the scalpers and give Guy a piece of the full market.. primary, and secondary.. But like you say, nothing can really be said without knowing the full numbers and how they relate.. I admit, im just going off my gut fealing and intiuition.. At least the money up front structure has the one upside of being the biggest curtailing of scalper wanabees! It's all conjecture, I realize... It may not be a problem, Im just wondering at what point by the numbers could scalping be a problem and a downward spiral... The point where scalping really does start to slow down production and start to control the supply..

The thought is this..
If you can pay up front now and get your product in a year.. OR you can buy the CURRENTLY available being made knife NOW for a 40% markup.. which is the size of the two customer demographics?
Sure, as the scalping market increases thier margins beyond retail go down.. BUT you will always have a group of buyers that would pay more money to buy a knife NOW then pay up front and get the knife in a year.. So.. can the tail wag the dog? In the scenario iv described.. TIME is the factor that makes the scalpers viable.. So if the scalpers buy more and more preorders- S!K's leadtimes become longer and the scalpers margins become greater!

I use myself as a real world example.. I have ordered S!K knives over the past couple of years.. back when you have to be quick and order one. it took a month to get.. then two months, then three.. then the preorder system started.. and was six.. and now.. it's over a year if you get in on preorders on thier early stage.. IE.. I have a gso 10 and 7 on order that will be over a year.. analyzing my own buying physchology- I find that six months was tough but I dealt with. .but even I am loosing steam at the >1year mark.. meaning I am struggling with motivation/impetus to pay upfront for year+ lead times.. at some point, the time is just too long to invest money and patience into and either I don't buy at all or I go to the seconddary scalping scene which is what I have done.. and before anyone criticize me bout as having a lack of patience, I would ask have you actually had several preorder knives that you have waited a year for? because I think unitll you have, you will find by the 10th month it does start to take the wind out of your sail for future purchasing. So my point was.. if Guy had auctioned off 10 knives on ebay.. I would have felt better about paying HIM the 40% premium (and would probably even buy more S!K knives)...

You may be right.. the scalping market may be pretty trivial now in number comparison.. but I predict in a year it won't be.. and would like to see Guy get that secondary money .. not opportunists that do NOTHING but pure profit for posting an ebay ad.

 

[chambelona59]

Just a thought.. humor me..

I have several Knives on preorder that will take a year to get.. For those times I want a survive knife NOW and not wait a year, I satisfy my craving by paying scalpers on Ebay.. Survive knife scalping has become pretty prolific and has corrected the supply/demand forces to a predictable 40% MORE Then Survive's retail price. But that's 40% profit that is going to a scalper not to Guy. Seems a shame..

So... what if, Guy kept his current preorder system.. AND for every batch of new knives being made, GUY makes X% extra and those X% extra Guy himself auctions off.. either his own system or ebay store...

So for example.. Guy gets 200 preorders for the 7/7.... then once he closes the preorder, knowing that he has 200 prepaid for.. Guy then orders material for an extra 20 7/7. After the 220 are made.. GUY auctions off the extra 20 7/7s over a month 5 per week. So now Guy now cuts out the scalpers and HE is getting the extra 40% scalpers were getting.. It's a win win... You have the preorder crowd that can wait out long lead times and get the low guaranteed price.. and you have those that don't like waiting and willing to pay whatever the MARKET decides it's worth get a crack at it on an auctions for a month.. Everyone is happy.. guy is making more money..


Just a thought..

Keep in mind... eBay collects a.k.a. takes 10% of the final sale price + PayPal gets their cut as well.

 

[TRfromMT]

On a first read, I thought this idea was nuts, and a bit presumptuous (who are we to step in and tweak S!K and tell them there's a better way?). On a second read, I'm at least mulling this over and - with respect - think there might be something to the OP's suggestion.

Currently on instagram there are lots and lots of small custom knife shops. Some of them have a presence on BF, most do not. I can immediately think of 3 or 4 who have a small batch of knives coming up for sale, and they action off a couple of them up front. One person has a line of beautiful little friction folders that he does runs of 15 - 20 knives, and often puts one up for auction, either before they drop for sale on his site, or just after. He may save one back after they all sell out (very quickly, sound familiar?...). The auctioned pieces go for 2-3X what the ordinary sale items go for. I can point you to one specific maker who simply responded "Yall are Nuts!" after a recent action fetched a great price for himself. It was cool.

I bet if S!K put up one last sample SK 4.7 today on the FB fan page for auction, no sniping rules, etc. it would hit $400. And us fans would be happy for S!K and the lucky winner, and would like to watch the fun.

 

[shumanlives]

I remember when I was on Turley Knives waiting list. I waited three years for my turn. Then a few weeks before I was to be called, he doubled his prices because that was the fair market rate (which it was and still is). I couldn't justify the increase in cost personally so I turned down my turn and membership (I was actually member#1 too). So be careful what you wish for......

 

[BITEME]

I remember when I was on Turley Knives waiting list. I waited three years for my turn. Then a few weeks before I was to be called, he doubled his prices because that was the fair market rate (which it was and still is). I couldn't justify the increase in cost personally so I turned down my turn and membership (I was actually member#1 too). So be careful what you wish for......

What he said

 

[zakjak221]

Apparently there are a Lotta guy's & some gals with the funds to collect knives...me included.
There are a Lotta companies with a lot of models offered.
If u choose not to wait for 3-6 months or longer then the next option is to pay a guy to part with his.
How much profit is fair=How bad do u want it.
Supply/Demand driving prices will never change.
Just like an $8.00 beer at the ballpark.

 

[AmericanAsApple3.14]

Let me say if someone is actually scamming someone, or is falsely advertising something, or running some con...yes, I hope we'd all agree that's morally wrong and mostly likely an actual crime.
If someone else buys a knife, pays the price with their legally earned money, posts a listing for some crazy amount with the knife properly listed and described, and you buy it.... what am I missing again? Did the seller tell you to forget your mortgage payment, reuse the baby diapers, and eat Ramen noodles for the next month so you could buy their knife? Did they say it would give you eagle powers? The crime here is....profit???

Anyone own/use/admire Apple products?

If Survive wants or needs to make more $, then they will charge more $. Does anyone here think they couldn't sell just as many knives for 10-20% more? I'd still be buying. They've decided to limit their profits in order to supply more people with the ability to have a first class product. They could certainly decide to do otherwise. I'm definitely grateful for their business model :thumbup: I'm all for them doing some sort of auction like TR pointed out, but I don't think it's something they want to do, at least not at this time. I was glad to be part of the wedding fundraiser Chiral organized because I think they deserved it and I think it's great what this community did for them.

Survive makes a great/excellent product, but they're not the only ones who do. There's a lot of options if someone feels prices get too high during the times of unavailability.

Keep in mind also that, as chambelona59 pointed out, a regular someone needs to charge roughly $275-290 on the bay just to break even depending on the upgrades they paid for due to fees, shipping, etc. That's a 20% increase right there - with no profit at all, or any consideration for risk (angry buyer, mail loss, etc).

With respect, there's a lot of other things going on in this world other than knife reselling that should be giving us chills.

Also, let's not forget this is America - would you really want to live in a place where someone couldn't do this?

 

[mlmcasual]

Let me say if someone is actually scamming someone, or is falsely advertising something, or running some con...yes, I hope we'd all agree that's morally wrong and mostly likely an actual crime.
If someone else buys a knife, pays the price with their legally earned money, posts a listing for some crazy amount with the knife properly listed and described, and you buy it.... what am I missing again? Did the seller tell you to forget your mortgage payment, reuse the baby diapers, and eat Ramen noodles for the next month so you could buy their knife? Did they say it would give you eagle powers? The crime here is....profit???

Anyone own/use/admire Apple products?

If Survive wants or needs to make more $, then they will charge more $. Does anyone here think they couldn't sell just as many knives for 10-20% more? I'd still be buying. They've decided to limit their profits in order to supply more people with the ability to have a first class product. They could certainly decide to do otherwise. I'm definitely grateful for their business model :thumbup: I'm all for them doing some sort of auction like TR pointed out, but I don't think it's something they want to do, at least not at this time. I was glad to be part of the wedding fundraiser Chiral organized because I think they deserved it and I think it's great what this community did for them.

Survive makes a great/excellent product, but they're not the only ones who do. There's a lot of options if someone feels prices get too high during the times of unavailability.

Keep in mind also that, as chambelona59 pointed out, a regular someone needs to charge roughly $275-290 on the bay just to break even depending on the upgrades they paid for due to fees, shipping, etc. That's a 20% increase right there - with no profit at all, or any consideration for risk (angry buyer, mail loss, etc).

With respect, there's a lot of other things going on in this world other than knife reselling that should be giving us chills.

Also, let's not forget this is America - would you really want to live in a place where someone couldn't do this?

I have no solid proof of Shilling on Survive! knives on Ebay.. but I recently was bidding on a Survive! auction on ebay.. there was a retraction on bid which smelt a tad fishy...
My point is, sure it's legal for scalpers to invest in S!K and make an easy buck.. But this secondary scalping market is giving way more money to scalpers that seems a shame it's not going to the people IMO earned it.. Suvive!..
The secondary Scalping market may be small potatoes now.. but with demand that outstrips supply by one year I predict the secondary scalping market will grow significantly.. As mentioned there are other outfits that do a combination of preorders and auctions so it's not unheard of.. I think the combination of Survive! maintaining it's existing preorder sytstem AND adding on a 10% overstock of each knife for auction would be win win... It would maintain guy's commitment to selling knives at a low price, while providing a pressure relief to long lead times and curbing scalping. It's a cake and eat it too notion..

Of course.. it's just me armchair quarterbacking.. not meant to be presumptuous just thinking outloud..

 

[AmericanAsApple3.14]

Yeah, if someone is bidding and then retracting bids just to bid you up that's totally wrong and dirty. Sadly, that could be on anything. Everything i said was related to honest people.

Honestly though, I've been following Survive for a bit over a year now and really haven't seen too many on the secondary market - on the bay or the forum. Definitely an uptick with the new releases, but check out Busse and you'll see the same thing. And speaking of some crazy auction site prices, have you seen what some of those are listed for? I'm not sure those guys will ever sell them for that price, but who knows.
I'm definitely with you on it being a cool idea for them to do, and like i said they do great work and deserve to be rewarded. Maybe they could do some for charity also - with this group something like that would be a hit for sure. Put up the last 5.1 off the production line, with a letter from Guy saying what it is, and say the funds go to X. I'm sure that would go quite well.

Or maybe it could be some one off customization...Probably a different thread topic but they've talked about the possibility of a Survive custom shop. What if Guy produced a custom 5.1, ceracoated with a sharpened or unsharpened swedge and customized wood/other handles with the Survive logo in them? ::wipes drool:: That would be sweet and definitely bring a nice premium for them.

 

[alinla]

While I agree with a few of your points, where you lost me was where a scalper would commit considerable funds to a pre-sale and have all that money tied up for over a year without being able to sell anything. Having money tied up to an item that's listed on eBay for a year is one thing, but having it tied up into a product that doesn't exist yet and you can't sell yet just seems like bad business if your business is buying and selling goods.
Plus you always run the risk that the manufacturer will produce more goods than initially mentioned and flood the market with less expensive product than you can sell for since you have to mark them up.
I would speculate that the recent numbers of items for auction are due to Survive! knives continued program to improve their product. I bet people are just excited for the new items and are trying to trade up.

 

[SURVIVE! Ellie]

I knew I should have gotten that latte this morning…

- We are not keeping the preorder system. The original plan was to only do the Starter campaign to help us launch the revised models and purchase much needed equipment. They have stayed open only because many people asked it to be so. There might be preordering in the future, for new designs ONLY.

- For those that don’t like waiting for preorders, we have the Monday releases. Technically, the people buying on Mondays are still waiting, just with money in their hand (which means they wait a little longer). The preorders and regular orders all come from the same production run, it is just up to you to decide your buying style.

- Availability isn’t going to change until we can increase production beyond demand. We keep making more and more, but by the time they get through all the production steps demand has also increased. Until that balance is met by us, there will always be those trying to capitalize on it. We are busy enough as it is, we don’t need to start competing in a whole new market.

- Auctioning the knives off isn’t really our style. We are not in this for the diamond coated helicopter. There are already so many people who say they can’t afford our knives as is. Our prices are reflective of the time and materials that go into each knife, plus some to cover losses and allow for growth. It will continue to be that way. If we raise prices, you will know exactly why they needed to be raised (foreshadowing hint: new 3V heat treat).

- With that being said, we MIGHT be seen selling custom, small batch knives Guy makes in his spare time. It has been discussed as part of a Guy R&D type thing. Of course that would require time, which he clearly does not have right now.

Guy’s advice: If you’re not comfortable with the price or any other part of the sale, don’t buy.

Maybe they could do some for charity also - with this group something like that would be a hit for sure. Put up the last 5.1 off the production line, with a letter from Guy saying what it is, and say the funds go to X. I'm sure that would go quite well.

We do this, but only locally. We provide a knife; the organization handles everything else.

 

[mlmcasual]

I knew I should have gotten that latte this morning…

- We are not keeping the preorder system. The original plan was to only do the Starter campaign to help us launch the revised models and purchase much needed equipment. They have stayed open only because many people asked it to be so. There might be preordering in the future, for new designs ONLY.

- For those that don’t like waiting for preorders, we have the Monday releases. Technically, the people buying on Mondays are still waiting, just with money in their hand (which means they wait a little longer). The preorders and regular orders all come from the same production run, it is just up to you to decide your buying style.

- Availability isn’t going to change until we can increase production beyond demand. We keep making more and more, but by the time they get through all the production steps demand has also increased. Until that balance is met by us, there will always be those trying to capitalize on it. We are busy enough as it is, we don’t need to start competing in a whole new market.

- Auctioning the knives off isn’t really our style. We are not in this for the diamond coated helicopter. There are already so many people who say they can’t afford our knives as is. Our prices are reflective of the time and materials that go into each knife, plus some to cover losses and allow for growth. It will continue to be that way. If we raise prices, you will know exactly why they needed to be raised (foreshadowing hint: new 3V heat treat).

- With that being said, we MIGHT be seen selling custom, small batch knives Guy makes in his spare time. It has been discussed as part of a Guy R&D type thing. Of course that would require time, which he clearly does not have right now.

Guy’s advice: If you’re not comfortable with the price or any other part of the sale, don’t buy.




We do this, but only locally. We provide a knife; the organization handles everything else.

You are doing away with the Preorder system? You currently are taking preorders on your site for the 6, 12 etc.. , when are you phasing that out? And what will it be replaced with? The original style first come first serve?

I have several knives done through the preorder that are looking to date like they will take over a year from the day I preorder-prepaid for them.. (gso 7,12). I'll be honest, going forward I concede that year+ lead-times are just not for me in the future.. though I did think it was a good option you had and at least guaranteed a knife and at retail price.. The ones I have on preorder were going to be my last purchases directly from Survive! and I was planning on just resort to buying off scalpers on Ebay when I could find them.. If you are doing away with the preorder system I can start trying on the first come first serve system instead of having to resort to scalpers.. so it's sort of good news for me..

I work in the engineering testing business myself at a small company.. I help design, make, market, sell products and I have been doing it for 25 years. We have a few saying regarding customers,
"we want to help them but we are not a charity".. and "customers want it Cheap, Fast, and high quality... PICK 2!"..