Random Thought Thread

[dtmbinb]

The correct answer of ⁠2/3⁠ can also be obtained as follows:

Originally, all six coins were equally likely to be chosen.The chosen coin cannot be from drawer S of box GS, or from either drawer of box SS. So it must come from the G drawer of box GS, or either drawer of box GG.The three remaining possibilities are equally likely, so the probability that the drawer is from box GG is ⁠2/3⁠.

 

[Nathan the Machinist]

I think it was personal use quantity.

I never made a pot case during my career. It was a 5,000 lb. minimum threshold in Miami back when I was working narcotics, and we'd just turn it over to state and local if they were looking to make a case.

5,000 lb is a lot of marijuana

 

[Synov]

Just for fun, and just for you

View attachment 2680180

No go back and watch the Aurora again ...

Your code is wrong somewhere.

There are 6 possible initial states:

You chose the GG box and the first G
You chose the GG box and the second G
You chose the GS box and the G
You chose the GS box and the S
You chose the SS box and the first S
You chose the SS box and the second S

2 out of the 3 times you chose a G, the remaining coin is G.

 

[Blues]

5,000 lb is a lot of marijuana

Guys used to line up to go on the burn runs.

 

[Murphjd25]

FFFF YES!!!! Finally figured out how to make the mirror LEDs stay on with everything else!!

 

[Murphjd25]

We’re having Brussel sprouts with dinner..my son..hey dad do brussel sprouts make you fart?

 

[dericdesmond]

 

[Murphjd25]

Can kind of see aurora tonight.

 

[JJ_Colt45]

My biological mom lives on the gulf coast of Florida. She is recovering from a double mastectomy and is in a safe place currently but she isn't confident her home is going to make it out of this new storm. I hope all of you in that area remain safe.

I sure hope your mom is wrong this time Dylan. My thoughts are with you. Everybody in the path stay safe.

 

[JJ_Colt45]

Catching up on a days posts when I finally sit down at night the subject matter can change on a dime(bag).

 

[bluemax_1]

The correct answer of ⁠2/3⁠ can also be obtained as follows:

Originally, all six coins were equally likely to be chosen.The chosen coin cannot be from drawer S of box GS, or from either drawer of box SS. So it must come from the G drawer of box GS, or either drawer of box GG.The three remaining possibilities are equally likely, so the probability that the drawer is from box GG is ⁠2/3⁠.

Interesting.

 

[oldmanwilly]

View attachment 2680212

I think they need some better weaponry:

What's better, apparently the reenactors drew some runes to memorialize it.

 

[fnordmorph]

View attachment 2680212

I have a mossberg 940 12ga I call my 'drone gun'...

And speaking of Miculek, *little* finger, upside down j-frame.

 

[DocJekl]

Well, in this photo Nathan's hand looks YUGE!

 

[DocJekl]

So, I don't really care about P Diddy or Puff Daddy; and so haven't followed the news. But, I just realized that this dude might have tanked the value of my domain www.iwanttobejustlikepuffdaddy.com that I thought I might sell someday

 

[tinfoil hat timmy]

 

[tinfoil hat timmy]

I have three boxes, one containing 2 gold coins, one containing 2 silver coins, and one containing 1 gold coin and 1 silver coin. I choose a random box, and a random coin from that box and pull out a gold coin. What is the chance that the other coin in the box is also gold?

50 percent

probably.

or 12 percent

 

[tinfoil hat timmy]

5,000 lb is a lot of marijuana

for who?

sorry.

ahem.

for Whooooom?

 

[tinfoil hat timmy]

Your code is wrong somewhere.

There are 6 possible initial states:

You chose the GG box and the first G
You chose the GG box and the second G
You chose the GS box and the G
You chose the GS box and the S
You chose the SS box and the first S
You chose the SS box and the second S

2 out of the 3 times you chose a G, the remaining coin is G.

no there are only 2 boxes with GOLE innem.

you already chose 1 of 2 that have gold.

the remaining choices are G OR S.

50 50

 

[Synov]

no there are only 2 boxes with GOLE innem.

you already chose 1 of 2 that have gold.

the remaining choices are G OR S.

50 50

Everything you said is correct, except for the conclusion. What you missed is that It's twice as likely you chose a gold coin from the box that was all gold coins, versus the box that only had a 1/2 chance of you choosing a gold coin.

Maybe changing the problem slightly would help your intuition. If we changed the GS box to having 999 silver coins and 1 gold coin, it would be highly unlikely you got the gold coin from that box right? You wouldn't say it's equally likely to be from either box.