Random Thought Thread

Murphjd25 said:
I knew that was the correct answer.
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Honestly, I don't have enough "hard use" comparisons to give you. Both sharpen really nice, both handle my light to medium use better than i could ask for (obviously), no rust on either. Poor source for feedback, so I posted a stupid meme!! 😁 Kind of like buying a Lambo and cruising it around town at 35 mph!

Long story longer, you NEED CPK Magnacut, Murphjd25 Murphjd25 !!!! 👍
 
Synov said:
I just didn't want to give the answer away too early.

Here's how to rigorously solve conditional probability questions:

The chance of X given that Y occurred = (the general chance of X)*(the chance of Y given X occured)/(the general chance of Y)

So the chance that we chose from the all gold box given we chose a gold coin = (1/3)*(1)/(1/2) = 2/3
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I always used something similar as a reason to use double protection during pregnancy counseling - "If the oral contraceptive pill is 98% effective and condoms are 97% effective, what are the chances of getting pregnant if a couple uses both?"
 
DocJekl said:
I always used something similar as a reason to use double protection during pregnancy counseling - "If the oral contraceptive pill is 98% effective and condoms are 97% effective, what are the chances of getting pregnant if a couple uses both?"
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I don’t know and I don’t want to know, my wife is about to pop out no.4. That’s more than enough!
 
DocJekl said:
I always used something similar as a reason to use double protection during pregnancy counseling - "If the oral contraceptive pill is 98% effective and condoms are 97% effective, what are the chances of getting pregnant if a couple uses both?"
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Thats not really a conditional probability since the contraceptive pill and the condom have no bearing on each other.

Probability of condom failing = 1-0.97 = 0.03
Probability of contraceptive failing = 1-0.98 = 0.02
Probability of both failing = (0.03)(0.02) = 0.0006

So the probability of getting pregnant using both is 0.06% and the effectiveness is 99.94%

6 out of 10,000
 
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Synov said:
Thats not really a conditional probability since the contraceptive pill and the condom have no bearing on each other.

Probability of condom failing = 1-0.97 = 0.03
Probability of contraceptive failing = 1-0.98 = 0.02
Probability of both failing = (0.03)(0.02) = 0.0006

So the probability of getting pregnant using both is 0.06% and the effectiveness is 99.94%

6 out of 10,000
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#science 😀
 
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