Random Thought Thread

Nathan the Machinist's take on COVID 19:

It's a type of cold virus (and probably no more contagious than the average cold) so it makes sense that it would be pretty bad during the peak of cold season (January - February) and relent a little once it warms up (soon). I've had a cold during the summer before but it's not common. I think that, between warming weather and people's diligence, this virus will slow down over the summer but hit again this fall. Since there isn't wide spread community spread in this area I think we're fine for now. I'm not worried about it for the time being. That could change in a few weeks, we'll see.

If the average fatality rate ends up being 1% and 100 million Americans end up catching it over the next year there could be a million deaths which would make it rank up there with the Spanish flu of 1918 we all learned about in school. But Jo (who is smart*) thinks the real number will be more like 10,000 total deaths (flu level damage) once it all shakes out.

(* fun fact: Jo is really smart and has degrees in biochemistry and genetics and is also a super-duper math wiz with a very good grasp of what is real and what is hype) <--- most folks here don't know that about her.

...I predict a million…. (but I'm also a fucking idiot)

Regardless, it looks like children aren't having too much trouble with it and folks like Jo who are relatively young and in good health aren't in much more danger than if they caught the flu (which we don't get too worked up about). Mark and I are at somewhat higher risk but maybe only about 10X worse than the flu risk. If it becomes wide spread we will stop going out and keep to the "compound" to minimize our exposure but if we catch it (and there's probably a pretty good chance we eventually will) we'll be fine. It's our aging friends and parents I'm most concerned about. With fatality rates of 5% for the older folks (more for nursing homes), if you have 20 friends and family over 70-80 and with pre-existing conditions I'm concerned this virus might take one of them. I just hope it's that asshole in Georgia that stole my lawnmower.
 
I'm not well versed in the actual details of the 1918 Spanish Flu but my great grandmother (I do remember her, but barely) who must've been in her late 20's (I stand corrected as the old bird was a decade older than I had originally thought! late stage teenager), had told her grand children including my Mom, stories about some doomsday plague when she was young. Just like everyone else who has been reading up about that 1918 killer flu, we have come to find out that the fatalities Worldwide were estimated anywhere between 50 to 100 million souls! (huge fracking number by any stretch of imagination).

Now almost over 100 years later, we live in a totally different World; much better information, medical care, hygiene, finances, yada, yada but also much more interconnected and co-dependent. Further, we will have direct death and also related death due to the ensuing and compounding adverse emotional, mental, behavioral, financial and criminal causes in the societies affected by any disease, disorder and pandemonium.

P.S. very glad to read that Jo is the super smart one with the actual wherewithal to back it up, which restores my faith in humanity :D
 
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