Will, here's my take on it. I think your final conclusions are correct in most every respect, but in actual use I fully expect to see S30V outperform S90V even in edge holding. Here's why. A great deal of edge loss is due to microchipping, particularly in hard use knives. Because of its considerable toughness, chipping will happen much less with S30V than S90V, unless the edge is extremely fine, and that's not what you'd put on most "hard use" knives. I feel more confident in taking an S30V blade to a finer edge however, so that's always a balancing act of just how close you can get to the line where you give back some of its toughness by increasing its cutting efficiency. It's a tempting line with S30V because the fine grain allows you to give it a very fine edge. In the end though, geometry trumps most everything.
Paul Bos takes my S30V blades to Rc60, where I feel very comfortable in the balance between hard and tough. In large blades (>10") he drops that back to Rc58, since these are usually blades which require edge holding less than edge strength, i.e. these are usually choppers not slicers.
In my testing, the only steel that has done better than S30V is CPM-3V, where they seem to be about the same in edge holding - but again, that's with my edges in a mix of uses that test both erosion and micro-chipping. 3V is definitely tougher however. I have chipped S30V in very severe tests where 3V only flattened or rolled slightly. S30V seems to chip rather than roll, but I did things to it that I'd expect to chip most anything.
I was speaking with someone from Crucible recently who cited a case where in a non-knife application the customer got better "wear" from a tool made with 3V than one made with 10V. Obviously, the issue wasn't wear as we normally think of it, but microchipping. Unless you look at the edge microscopically, you really have a hard time distinguishing the cause of apparent "dulling" as wear or chipping. And just to play the trump card one more time, edge geometry and finish will often decide how easily an edge chips, no matter what steel is used.
Bottom line, S30V is great steel...