The economy and custom knives

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I'm not really concerned right now about the resale value of the knives that I purchase. My main concern is that I will not be able to afford to purchase the knives that I had planned to. Hopefully things will turn around, or at least not get any worse. Time will tell.
 
drf1 said:
If the "Aftermarket in the toilet" thread with 224 posts and 7,132 views did not answer questions, why would another thread on the same topic have different results?
This is like visiting a sick person in the hospital and telling them their dying...
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... this thread is different with the previous thread ... This thread is more about non US collector regarding to the increase of USD (recently).... It's interesting topics for me (so do knifemakers that have int'l customers). If you don't like it ... is it so hard not to read it ????
 
the strengthening of the USD definitely hurts, but what is worse is that the crash in the markets has caused my savings in investments funds to be wiped out, which means no more knife money for me. Money is now for food and essentials only.

All things being cyclical, there may be some light at the end of the tunnel in all this.
 
actually on the bright side (outside us) ... if you have collection and sell it in the US market ... then convert to local currency .. you gain profit.
 
The aftermarket is not really in the toilet but it is a buyers market for now.

As a Canadian I already like to buy from fellow Canadian sheathmakers and knifemakers and now there is an added reason. I did sell a Scrapyard DFLE and a beautiful Rainwalker sheath
today for cheaper than it would have sold before the meltdown and it took a lot longer to sell. It was also to someone I liked and would have wanted to give a good deal anyway.

Really you can't control things like the economy and their are going to be huge boom and busts especially if countries with economies as large as the US persist with unregulated free markets. The best thing is to try to roll with it and buy when it's low whether that is knives or stocks.

Having a a nice chunk of cash tied up in knives with a strong aftermarket is a great way to insulate yourself from market downturns. Even if they take a loss it is nothing like what the stock market did and is likely to come back faster as people get more confidence in the economy and want to diversify a bit.

I have been buying up nice cheap WW1 bayonets and other gear as both an investment and because I like them. With the centennial coming up and there being a few upcoming movies it is looking good.

This might be a good time to get rid of the lesser items in your collection and spend a little more on some real definitive excellent examples that are sure to be both easy to sell and sure to hold value. This is exactly the right time to be shopping for that 1 piece
whether it is SHSH Busse ,a Loveless with all the right features ,a Price Bowie that should really be in a museum.

I bet the Canadian dollar bounces back with the price of oil. It would take a HUGE crisis to reduce the demand for oil so much that it stays as low as it is right now. For now buy canadian. I lucked out because ordered a custom bowie and sheath both from other Canuks even though I deal with a lot of Yanks.

The US dollar is probably not going to be the currency of choice anymore especially if big holders start dumping it. Say what you will about the commie bastards in China but they have stood by the US during this crisis even though the billions in US currency they are holding has dropped drastically in value.

However this in not all bad news. With the dollar down and the yen up the US has a good shot at getting back her HUGE manufacturing industries back. For decades the US businesses that did well worldwide did so with huge disadvantages with exchange rates ,labor costs and strict environmental laws. When some of these things start to actually benefit the US and with Americas lead in tech and anything creative you have a real shot at another 100 years on top.
 
I'm selfemployed (I'm the co-owner of a small consultancy firm) and although until now I'm doing good I can see the first signs of the economic problems in our country too. If these problems are worsening (as can be expected at this moment) it will affect my business too.

I buy my knives with discretionary money and you can imagine that in an economic stressful time these funds are reserved for other more necessary purchases.

So yes the current situation (including the changing $ to € exchange rate) is affecting my decisions about buying and selling knives. In other words I've decided to slow down buying for the coming year.

Marcel
 
From a different stand point, that of a maker, I can tell you that I am getting more orders and for higher cost knives. Orders are just about always strong, but recently, it has gone crazy! Both domestic and int'l orders. I'm sure that a lot of the int'l orders are due to the weak U.S. Dollar. It makes it much more attractive to buy from America now. We are becoming the bargain. Sure hope we don't become the new third world bargain! No, I don't think so. I think the current situation is finally a long overdue wake up call to many.

I can say that at the Spirit of Steel Show, I did hear complaints, but I can't see how I could have done better. Great sales,(sold out) food, friends. We had a wonderful time!

M.Lovett
 
The key for custom makers is to do a good job and charge a fair price based on their experience, quality and reputation.

People will always respond to those who MAKE things happen and do good work. I think the biggest problem in the USA is that we don't make anything any more. Those that do make things, and do it well, can do ok even in tough times.

Some lesser known makers may have to slow down a bit. The more well known makers may have to look for new places to sell their products. But, it can be done if you are doing your best work and you keep working.

I have traveled the world from Russia to India, China and Europe. Americans may be alot of things. One thing is for sure ..............that when work needs to be done, it gets done. Another thing is certain................Americans are very good at good ideas.

So, custom makers, don't panic. Everyone is making cuts and doing what they can to get along. You are not alone. You do have to do your best work now. You have to be as creative as you can be now. You have to do the work, and work at new ideas more now than ever. So just keep doing what you are good at.

Good work, good ideas, creativity and flexibility are always rewarded even in the worst of times.

Keep that in mind as the financial world rides its roller coaster.

Keep Good Care.................

Pappy
 
Unsub said:
As a Canadian I already like to buy from fellow Canadian sheathmakers and knifemakers and now there is an added reason.

However this in not all bad news. With the dollar down and the yen up the US has a good shot at getting back her HUGE manufacturing industries back. For decades the US businesses that did well worldwide did so with huge disadvantages with exchange rates ,labor costs and strict environmental laws. When some of these things start to actually benefit the US and with Americas lead in tech and anything creative you have a real shot at another 100 years on top.
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I find that most Canadian makers price their knives in US funds.

Over the last couple of weeks the US dollar has been going up rather dramatically against most foreign currencies. With economies down and the US dollar up, that is not a good scenario for US trade.

Michael Lovett said:
From a different stand point, that of a maker, I can tell you that I am getting more orders and for higher cost knives. Orders are just about always strong, but recently, it has gone crazy! Both domestic and int'l orders. I'm sure that a lot of the int'l orders are due to the weak U.S. Dollar. It makes it much more attractive to buy from America now. We are becoming the bargain. Sure hope we don't become the new third world bargain! No, I don't think so. I think the current situation is finally a long overdue wake up call to many.

I can say that at the Spirit of Steel Show, I did hear complaints, but I can't see how I could have done better. Great sales,(sold out) food, friends. We had a wonderful time!
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It's good to see that things were good at the Spirit of Steel show, but that was at the beginning of this crisis. What will be telling is what happens over the next few months. I think things will continue to be strong for makers as popular as yourself, but I'm not sure what will happen to those that are lesser known.

pappy1959 said:
The key for custom makers is to do a good job and charge a fair price based on their experience, quality and reputation.

People will always respond to those who MAKE things happen and do good work. I think the biggest problem in the USA is that we don't make anything any more. Those that do make things, and do it well, can do ok even in tough times.

So, custom makers, don't panic. Everyone is making cuts and doing what they can to get along. You are not alone. You do have to do your best work now. You have to be as creative as you can be now.

Good work, good ideas, creativity and flexibility are always rewarded even in the worst of times.
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Makes good sense to me.
 
What I don't understand is why this dead horse is being beaten again when it was discussed in detail in a previous thread, with the possible exception of hoping for different answers? I haven't changed any of my answers.

Knives are not recession proof, nor is anything. However in past recessions (and some of us have been in the game long enough to recall them) knives picked up in most segments of the market. Douglas Casey in "Crisis Investing" cited custom knives as one of the best anti-inflation hedges--and he wrote that around 1982.

In inflationary times collectibles of all types pick up as people bail from the stock market and put their money in things they can hold and feel. At least that is what has happened in all the downturns that I have lived through in 35 years in the game. But then again I'm sure Katie Couric knows much more about the knife business than I do (or at least the 30-year-old communications intern who writes her copy knows all about it).

I can guarantee you this though. Worrying about it won't help. Worrying about it and talking it to death on forums won't help--and it may panic some of the newer collectors.

My past two auctions, one of exclusively handmade knives, the other exclusively of vintage knives, brought much stronger prices than I expected, and the response from the winning bidders was asking when I would have more vintage handmades as they wanted some of the older makers. This response was the strongest I've experienced in the 10 years in which I've been auctioning knives.

I can cite at least four different knife dealer friends of mine (albeit in factory knives and not customs) that became multi-millionaires --during recessions.

So having said all the above (again)...I will (with tongue in cheek) say that perhaps if you don't believe any of the positive statements in the other thread about the durability of knife values in downturns, then you SHOULD panic, and the only way to stop worrying about the economy is to sell all your knives NOW, of course keeping one really good one for self defense in the coming chaos in the streets. I can recommend a good auctioneer for the liquidation provided the chaos does not hit within the next eight weeks or so.

I once read a quote from Ross Perot when he bailed from the director board of GM, when he said he was getting out of the stock market because he couldn't understand parts of it. I think the specific quote was that the only 30-year-old millionaires he knew in America were either stock traders--or drug dealers.

I don't think anything I've said above is very different from what I posted in the "Aftermarket in the Toilet" thread. And I don't think most of the other people's opinions have changed since then either.

Just look at recent shows--good makers are selling out. Collectors are still buying.

If you sincerely think that knives are tanking, then then only logical and prudent thing (as an investor) would be to bail now, before we less informed get the word. That way you're selling out before the market collapses, and those of us who remain will somehow just have to muddle through.

I question what is being accomplished by collectors who hold knives and at the same time talk them down.
 
I'm not into knives as an investment and that's not what I'm concerned about. My concern is whether or not, with the way the economy is going, people are going to be able to afford to continue to add knives to their collection at the same rate they were before this economic crisis began. The previous thread was mostly directed at the aftermarket. This thread is directed at the market for new knives, and what effect their will be for collectors and makers.

Believe me, this is not a dead horse. It is a horse that will be alive and suffering for the next year or more. So if you think this is beating a dead horse, then I disagree with you completely. It may well be poking a sore spot, and one that some people would prefer not be discussed, but it sure as heck isn't a dead horse.
 
Well, it's another week into this mess and orders have been stronger than ever this week. I am seriously thinking of not taking any new customers. But I hate the thought of doing that. There are just so many. It gets a little scary sometimes!

Mike Lovett
 
Michael Lovett said:
Well, it's another week into this mess and orders have been stronger than ever this week. I am seriously thinking of not taking any new customers. But I hate the thought of doing that. There are just so many. It gets a little scary sometimes!
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As I stated earlier Mike, I'm very happy that things are looking so bright for you. My hope is that this will be the case for everyone involved in the custom knife community. As time goes by we will definitely get a better idea of the overall situation that makers and collectors will find themselves in.
 
I think I can eleborate on what Keith is trying to get across. This year I've added about 20 new knives to my collection. For next year I have 4 commissions incoming and I'm sure I will think long and hard if and what I will add to those four. Not likely I will sell any but I'm sure I won't want to dig too deep in my "warchest".

Marcel
 
Another thing that I will point out as concerns the timing of this thread compared to the one on the aftermarket, is that since that thread died off, millions of people have found themselves in a far worse financial situation than they were then. At the time that thread was going on, I could purchase US made knives at par. Now I have to pay about 20% more for the same knife. If this trend continues, it will mean less knives for me and less sales for knifemakers.

In another month the economy is going to be in a completely different place than it is now. This is an issue that isn't dead, it is an issue that is just getting started.
 
Keith Montgomery said:
As time goes by we will definitely get a better idea of the overall situation that makers and collectors will find themselves in.
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That is as obvious as the hairs on your head, Keith.

Everyone does indeed have a right to speak up on BladeForums, even if they cause harm with their posts....I know that, I have done it, sometimes on purpose.

I hope that you can see the harm you are doing, and why others resist it...I also hope that it is on purpose, for some hidden agenda, rather than a foolish blunder.

Best Regards,

STeven Garsson
 
At the time that thread was going on, I could purchase US made knives at par. Now I have to pay about 20% more for the same knife.
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The exchange rate US dollar to Euro has adjusted about 15% too. I have to pay a few makers in the coming weeks so that isn't fun........but on the other hand all my other knives I bought this year have gone up in value 15%;)

Marcel
 
I see both sides here, however my concern is that these threads will have a negative impact on knife sales/values just as media hype thus panic selling has induced our unprecedented tailspin in the stock market.
 
Kevin Jones said:
I see both sides here, however my concern is that these threads will have a negative impact on knife sales/values just as media hype thus panic selling has induced our unprecedented tailspin in the stock market.
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Media hype CREATES situations of selloff and panic, just as in a much smaller sense, consitently bringing up the economy vis a vis custom knife collecting contributes to lack of collector participation...does the harm.

Best Regards,

STeven Garsson
 
I say bullshit, STeven.
The problem exists. That people discuss the symptoms of the problem is good for others who are looking for some meaning in what they are seeing around them.
 
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