The knife market bubble needs to happen

Yo Mama

Yo Mama

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Sep 25, 2011
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A few threads already loosely discussing pricing going up, but I want to ask is this sustainable? These production companies can only raise prices so much before most knife buyers including us here that are fanatics about it are out. I can't justify the increases either where materials are no in line any longer to hide the bite of the cost. And it's accelerating. Not picking on any one company. Companies also "mapping" all the fun out of deal shopping has ruined alot of the appeal of the hunt.

I'm hoping for a correction. I'm doing the doomsday approach here, let companies get to big and expensive and let them fail. Maybe in the end its inevitable, a few more years of price increases to really be apparent. After a crash companies will need to go back to their roots to survive and get acquainted again to basics not relying on fancy designer names to propagate the ever increasing dollar.

We are also seeing newer companies fill the void knowing that the market desires options. Companies that are killing it with quality and pricing, and this will also accelerate the more that the old guard production pumps the gas on jacking up the prices.

The knife market has been crazy for a while, and imo will eventually have a reckoning as it is inevitable. What do you think the likely scenario is here?
 
Well.. I quit buying once 60.00 knives became 100.00 plus.. Set my limit at 100.00.. They can do what they want as long as people keep buying.. In my younger days when I had a pocket full of disposal money increases were no big deal.. Now in my 60s and retired it is a BIG deal.. Still aint figured what a 150.00 knife does better than a 60.00 knife.. Been in the knife game for 45yrs plus and don't get it??!!
John
 
Not gonna happen. If you go to a famous forum seeing how many diehard fans ridicule/refute someone who questioned the price increase, you shall know why.

New companies are nothing good either. See how some of them quickly raised their prices to the roof in just a few years?
 
The bigger company most likely to be forced into big changes in my opinion is Benchmade. They have a good distribution network and generally mostly sell at higher end retail stores, knife stores, and of course online sales. The Bugout was a good introduction for them and popular at a reasonable price point for most shoppers seeking a big name and good reputation with a modern knife.

Spyderco... I think Sal keeps a tight reign on things there and resists increasing his production capacity for short term bumps in the market.

Case might bite the dust like Queen. GEC hits the specialty market for higher end customers interested in the same kind of knives. They'll make it, but their price increases are beginning to be a little disturbing. As I predicted, the SFO's are beginning to push the $150 area and this will be a major limiting factor.

Kabar will shrink their inventory to adjust to market conditions. Their prices have been going up too.
 
Aside from a few hot niches in the market, I don’t see much of anything that can be described as a bubble.

Surely the Chinese manufacturers coming along with s35vn/titanium knives in the 100-200 range is going to shake things up. If anything, more inexpensive knives are getting yesterday’s rare materials.

It might be that prices from US manufacturers are climbing, but that’s just bad news for them if they’re undercut by international sellers.
 
It was never in me to support outright greed. And that's what the knife companies are doing. They took their cue from the Realestate, car, and gun markets. Use enough hype and smoke and mirrors and you can sell gold plated horse manure. If it's worth 50 dollars, then with some good hype you can get 100 for it.

The last 30 years of my working life I worked in manufacturing. I look at the modernknivqes, especially those made by the company with a rabid fan boy base, and I see knives engineered to be easier and faster and cheaper to produce and assemble. Express purpose is to have a bigger profit margin.

And the fan boys fall for it.

One of these days the bubble may break and some companies will go under.
 
Inflation raises pricing on most things over time. Manufacturing and purchasing efficiencies can offset the increases. Sometimes value reduction (loss of quality) and/or market demand is a factor in price. Legacy costs can be a heavy burden on businesses.

Seems to me that this is a great time to be a collector in the global marketplace.

Have found some amazing offerings around $175USD. I'm currently a buyer up to $600USD and could be a buyer up to $1000USD five years from now. I do not own anything from Benchmade or Spyderco.
 
The MAP prices by many of these larger Companies astounded me as a new knife enthusiast. Knives that to me should be $60 to $75 ,were $130 or more. Benchmade is IMHO the worst on this. WHY I shop for any BM's that interest me on this sites , For Sale side. I simply can not rationalize $115 for a Bugout that to me , is maybe a $80 at best folder.
 
jackknife said:
It was never in me to support outright greed. And that's what the knife companies are doing. They took their cue from the Realestate, car, and gun markets. Use enough hype and smoke and mirrors and you can sell gold plated horse manure. If it's worth 50 dollars, then with some good hype you can get 100 for it.

The last 30 years of my working life I worked in manufacturing. I look at the modernknivqes, especially those made by the company with a rabid fan boy base, and I see knives engineered to be easier and faster and cheaper to produce and assemble. Express purpose is to have a bigger profit margin.

And the fan boys fall for it.

One of these days the bubble may break and some companies will go under.
Click to expand...

:thumbsup::thumbsup::thumbsup:
 
Inflation affects them also. Their employees like raises, just like the rest of us. They can't just raise prices indiscriminately and survive. There is plenty of competition in the market waiting to take a share away from them if they misprice their items and I am sure they weigh each price increase carefully. However if you can't make enough for all the buyers out there, it is a good indication that you still have room to raise.
If they don't make money they are not going to be making knives. If there is some bubble burst, you likely will not be buying cheaper knives from them. They will be gone.
 
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A little greed is good for the market. Businesses are generally not public service companies. Look at Microsoft. I would call that greed with a capital "G".
 
The way manufacturing is is doesn't matter much if a yellow finger pushes a button than a white or brown one. I have more than a few Chinese made knives .including spyderco. Compared to American made I don't see much if any difference to justify the higher price. But it's a buyer's market always. If they price you out of the market theres always something else out there. That's the way i see it anyway. The "super steels" of today which are more than adequate will be old news in a few years.
 
Will the bubble burst? Or is this more generational? I may stop buying knives that are steadily increasing in price. Will the younger crowd who do not know of cheaper prices keep these companies profiting? Im very curious to see the outcome as well.

There is a good chance that the bubble can burst too. But to what extent? Would Spyderco go out of business or benchamde for example. Will the ontario rat become king? Then the price on that rapidly climbs and the cycle starts all over again.
 
Prices have been going up since there was money. This is nothing new. It's not the end of the world either. Not charging enough will put a company out of business faster than raising the price. Most of us have a lot of knives in our collections, price didn't have much to do with it.
 
I doubt it will happen ... in fact just look at the ridiculous increase in firearms and ammunition costs when people thought things were going south ...

many gladly paid twice the normal cost for firearms and dealers went out of business because they just couldn't keep guns in stock ...

and ammunition was worse ... firearm shops with a dozen boxes of odd caliber ammo being all they had on the shelf?... couldn't hardly find a brick of 22LR anywhere ... and if you did you were paying wayyyyy too much ...

so those that want and think they need the latest greatest knives will gladly pay whatever the cost comes to be ...

sadly consumers have become so dependant on instant gratification that most don't know what waiting is ... and waiting it out is the only way any pricing would come down instead of going up.

As long as people will pay it ... someone will charge it ... that's why I've said many times recently that I've found my point of diminishing returns and only have a couple knives on my WTB list ...

there may be something down the road that catches my eye ... or trades or purchases of used knives ... but for me personally the materials and market has hit the ceiling ...
 
Price increases are far more complicated than simply slapping a greed label on the situation. I get the frustration but there's just a whole lot more to it than that.

Indulge me...When FGI/Remington bought out and then closed the Marlin Firearms Company, of which I was an avid supporter, we watched them send out products that quite literally looked like third-graders built them in a backyard sand box. I'm not exaggerating. The corners of the wood were barely rounded, there were "extra" open dovetail slots, crooked barrels, flimsy nickle-plated parts, sights that just fell out and on and on. At one point, they were knowingly sending models to Canada that had the aforementioned "extra" dovetail slots and then refusing to do anything about it because the warranty was USA only. They also stopped supplying parts to individuals. Marlin, until then, had been a David in a sea of Goliaths. While they might not have been the most modern offering or in the latest whiz-bang Uber Short Magnums, they were rock-solid, extremely effective, and could be had for a decent blue-collar price. And you could pick up a rusted-up old barn find and not worry because you could just buy about every piece on the gun through numerous suppliers. And along with all this wonderment, they increased prices.

The Marlin-loving community screamed and rebelled. Most said Remington would shut down. I said it wouldn't happen. It will just be the new normal. Just like how those bags of chips in the vending machines are half the size they used to be, the company would weather the flash-in-the-pan outrage and a new standard would be set and accepted. And it was. Yeah, they got a little better with quality but still far from where it used to be and the prices are still much higher. And yes, Remington went into bankruptcy, but they were saved and keep right on trucking. And most of those folks who were so outraged are still on the forums talking about their latest Remington-made Marlin rifle and how glad they are that the "mother ship" got things sorted out.

So long as a company can keep putting "cheap" products on WalMart shelves, they should be just fine. For everyone of us that decides we aren't paying X price for X knife, there will be ten new people who will.

My recent foray into researching French knives has been very illuminating. $~200USD can buy some extremely beautiful handmade knives. Yes, you often sacrifice a clip but they can be found. And many are slip joints, although there are lots of locking models as well, and no, they aren't for battoning or survival, but they retain fantastic cutting profiles. Exotic woods, bone, and horn handles. Hand-filed back springs, many with craftsman-specific designs. Hand polished to crazy mirror finishes. And so on. This in a country whose federal personal income tax is quite a bit higher than the USA.

Just some morning ramblings on a topic I've been thinking about a lot lately...
 
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22-rimfire said:
Case might bite the dust like Queen. GEC hits the specialty market for higher end customers interested in the same kind of knives. They'll make it, but their price increases are beginning to be a little disturbing. As I predicted, the SFO's are beginning to push the $150 area and this will be a major limiting factor.

Kabar will shrink their inventory to adjust to market conditions. Their prices have been going up too.
Click to expand...

If Case was smart they'd start inching into the retro-inspired military-aesthetic market that KA-BAR used to occupy a little more securely. With their Winkler collabs they've shown that they have the potential for it, but it'll be interesting to see how they adapt to a changing market without losing their brand image in the process. Some pivoting is definitely needed to preserve a strong market share.
 
22-rimfire said:
...

Spyderco... I think Sal keeps a tight reign on things there and resists increasing his production capacity for short term bumps in the market.

...
Click to expand...

Just for the record, not saying it changes anything about you said, but Sal hasn't ran Spyderco for some time. Eric runs the business now.
 
I was an avid 22 shooter when the last shortage hit. I refused to buy something like an AR at the inflated prices and that bubble did in deed break. I went through previous ammunition shortages and was significantly prepared when the last one hit. No problem if you are prepared. But it did impact my shooting or use of ammunition significantly regardless.

Colt was the big firearm manufacturer that bit the dust. They kept raising prices and over time reduced the quality of their product. Some would say it was a management problem. It was, but the pricing ultimately bit them in the butt and they failed around 1990. The current Colt is just a shell of a company as compared to what it was.

Will interest in higher end (defined as $100-$150+ US) knives market burst? Who knows. But like with 22 ammo, I am more than prepared for any market change. As mentioned, there is likely a generational aspect to this. I think GEC's success is largely the result of the "over 50 crowd" and not younger knife buyers.
 
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