The knife market bubble needs to happen

What exactly are the "under 30" folks interested in relative to knives? I suspect it goes beyond seeing something in a store and saying "that's cool" and buying. We all do that from time to time.

The bubble is not going to burst anytime soon by the way.
 
FortyTwoBlades said:
[…] if I was marketing to the under-30 crowd vs. the over-30 crowd I'd take drastically different approaches.
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The only way is if we form the soviet people’s republic of knife buyers and unionize fo boycott companies to the point that raising their prices actually loses them money.

In no time knife innovation will stop and shortly after quality will fall.

Shotgun dictatorship position of this particular soviet.
 
Velitrius said:
Start of a good philosophical discussion there.

It's not only that they weren't raised in a culture of knife carrying or camping. Now that knives are verboten as "weapons" in school, they are being educated that knives are bad things at a young age.

We carried knives in school and scouts and such as youths, and this habit carried over into our adult years. It's not that we were "into" knives, it's simply that they were a part of our every day life as useful tools.

What difference will the two mindsets make in the future cutlery marketplace? Time will indeed tell.
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With all due respect, that's nostalgic and poetically cliche, but it is just not my experience at all. I spent about forty years camping, hunting and fishing from the high deserts of the Snake River Canyon to the rugged peaks of the Selkirks and the salmon-stuffed rivers of Alaska. I served in a combat role in the military and more than a decade in law enforcement. I currently work in serious manufacturing, from metal casting to chemical operations to extreme-high-tolerance machining and it is my experience that age has almost zero to do with knives.

If anything, I probably encounter more old guys lamenting the costs of knives as they pull out some 220grit sand paper sharpened Winchester WalMart special and spew about how this here knife is just fine! I almost never run into people who actually sharpen their knives, except maybe the aforementioned sandpaper scrape here and there.

I know guys who can tell you the most minute detail about their chosen fishing rod or the ballistic specs of their chosen ammo or walk right to some brush covered game trail ten miles back in the Colville National Forest, but ask them about their knife? "Um, yeah, I got one here somewhere. I mean have this Leatherman and, oh yeah, here it is, this old Buck. The tip's busted but it still works fine for what I need..."

But I also encounter a few folks, young and old, who are into knives. They may like different things than me but they can talk to it and they do research and enjoy the discussion.

I think that a lot of young people just can't afford higher-end stuff so it doesn't grab them as much. I've always loved knives but even in my youth, surrounded by outdoorsmen and craftsmen, I was pretty alone. A knife was just like a pair of pliers or something. Use it up, turn into a spike, toss it in the toolbox and get another one.

That's still pretty much my experience today. The fact is, I think I get more younger people excited about knives than I do older ones. The guys my age and up tend to just look at me like I'm nut. :D
 
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Well said, Eli. Great add to the philosophical discussion part I mentioned.

I'm nostalgic and poetically cliché? Hmm. I'll take that as a compliment actually. ;):thumbsup:
 
I'm not sure if I'd call it a bubble. The knife business has changed and will continue to keep changing. Now manufacturers carve out a niche in the knife market. Busse has theirs, Spyderco, Benchmade etc. Wasn't all that long ago that just the Imperial plant alone put out over a hundred thousand knives a day from what I've read. They are gone now though along with Camillus, Western, Schrade ( USA), and most of the rest.

I don't have any insider information about the companies here in the US we regularly praise and complain about here but most seem to be doing OK. I have seen their practices and products change over the last 20 years and feel like they will keep changing when their slice of the market does. If they don't they will add on to the list of failed knife manufacturers and somebody will take their place.

If there is a bubble I'd say it is the current amount of M390/20CV flippers. Seems like there are more and more of them released daily with brands I've never heard of before coming out with new ones that look like all the others to me.

Joe
 
In my experience the under-30 crowd has been the most demanding market to serve mostly because they're looking to squeeze every last bit they can from their dollar to get the best value possible. They're willing to save up and drop big bills if they have to to get the most appropriate match for their needs, but want to know all of the specs, get personal impressions from folks regarding prospective models, ask experts, look into the reputation of the manufacturer, and once they settle on a model that best meets their needs, they'll shop around for the best place to get it. Usually with a bias in favor of independent shops as long as the difference in price from other, bigger vendors isn't extreme. They usually read up ahead of time before making a purchase, and are shrewd buyers. Sometimes they can get hung up on details that aren't especially important in practice, but on the whole they view the purchase like it's an investment. These are all generalities, but it's been my overall experience.
 
Not what I was expecting to read 42. I trust your experience and insights. Thanks for the response on the Under 30 crowd. Spec oriented.... interesting. Basically, they are more than willing to spend the $150+ on a knife that they believe will function well, be durable, and serve their needs. That sounds like a made to order Benchmade and Spyderco preference.

What's the latest on your sheath experiments?
 
22-rimfire said:
Not what I was expecting to read 42. I trust your experience and insights. Thanks for the response on the Under 30 crowd. Spec oriented.... interesting. Basically, they are more than willing to spend the $150+ on a knife that they believe will function well, be durable, and serve their needs. That sounds like a made to order Benchmade and Spyderco preference.

What's the latest on your sheath experiments?
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•Yeah, basically when they're shopping for a knife (or any other gear) they've assessed their needs and are trying to buy something that fills that functional niche, and they want to know everything they can about it so they're assured they're making the right choice. As I like to say, "the prudent spendthrift knows not to buy the cheapest brand of sausages." It's a matter of not going overboard...but also making sure not to go underboard, either. Fairly minimalist but high-quality mid-range stuff tends to do well with them, in my experience.

•Things are going nicely with the sheaths. The only reason they're not up on the site yet is we're still scrambling to get Kingfisher pre-orders out to everyone, so there's no time to spare on sheaths. I've made a bunch of them for various tools, though, and have been using them extensively, and the HDPE material has turned out to be a solid performer. Once things get wrapped up with the Kingfishers you can expect sheaths to make an appearance for virtually all knives and tools that don't currently come with one.
 
Firstly, there's no knife market "bubble" to burst. A bubble is a speculative/investment market phenomenon. The investment market in knives is a relatively small part of the knife market (though it certainly exists) and consequently has little effect on the health of the major knife companies. Don't confuse and conflate collectors and investors. Any large (ie. non-incremental) market correction will only occur because of an overall market correction (ie. a depression). Though it is probably unavoidable, who in their right mind would want that?

Secondly, even if such a bubble existed (it does not) why would anyone want knife companies to go out of business?

Just buy what you can afford, for goodness sake, and stop fantasizing about nonsense.
 
There's a good number of people in this country paying $60 for next day air without ever thinking twice about it. I'm related to one who pays for next day air, and those packages sit in his entry way for 3-5 days til he gets around to taking a gander. He lives in a one story vinyl home.

Levels, I guess is what I'm saying. Just like auctioneers, knife manufacturers can set whatever price they like and there will always be a 'good number' of buyers from every class eager to play.
 
JJ_Colt45 said:
I doubt it will happen ... in fact just look at the ridiculous increase in firearms and ammunition costs when people thought things were going south ...

many gladly paid twice the normal cost for firearms and dealers went out of business because they just couldn't keep guns in stock ...

and ammunition was worse ... firearm shops with a dozen boxes of odd caliber ammo being all they had on the shelf?... couldn't hardly find a brick of 22LR anywhere ... and if you did you were paying wayyyyy too much ...

so those that want and think they need the latest greatest knives will gladly pay whatever the cost comes to be ...

sadly consumers have become so dependant on instant gratification that most don't know what waiting is ... and waiting it out is the only way any pricing would come down instead of going up.

As long as people will pay it ... someone will charge it ... that's why I've said many times recently that I've found my point of diminishing returns and only have a couple knives on my WTB list ...

there may be something down the road that catches my eye ... or trades or purchases of used knives ... but for me personally the materials and market has hit the ceiling ...
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The firearms thing is pure mob mentality panic, instant crazy increase in demand reducing normal supply, nothing like steady manufacturing cost increases like knives (Labor, Materials, Equipment). I've been on both sides of the firearm panic either buyer and seller, and I prefer the latter of course. My best investments have been AR lowers and any Glock or AR mags, turning panic pricing into paying off my mortgage years earlier than expected. When 2020 comes I expect another windfall for sure.
 
Yo Mama Yo Mama
Let me ask you this:
At what price for gasoline do you think the majority of people will say "enough is enough! I won't pay that!" and give up their automobile?

When I started driving in 1971, a gallon of regular (leaded) gas cost between 15 point 9 and 18 point 9 CENTS, depending on if there was a "gas war" taking place.
A new full size family sedan cost under $7,000. (In 1973 you could get a new base level Camaro for under $4,000)
What a new car cost back then is not even a decent down payment for a car today.

Have the majority of people given up their cars after such tremendous increases in costs?
Nope. A small minority have (myself included), but the vast majority willingly pay up to $4.00 and more for a gallon of gas, and what a house used to cost for their vehicle.

I remember when you could get a good Made in USA name brand knife for as little as $2.00.
People willingly spend 50x that and more for a knife today.

In answer to your question: No. History shows that the "bubble" (if it exists) will not burst.
 
FortyTwoBlades said:
If Case was smart they'd start inching into the retro-inspired military-aesthetic market that KA-BAR used to occupy a little more securely. With their Winkler collabs they've shown that they have the potential for it, but it'll be interesting to see how they adapt to a changing market without losing their brand image in the process. Some pivoting is definitely needed to preserve a strong market share.
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I've been pondering the best way to say this without being divisive and what not. The knife community is under enough attacks to feed into it ourselves. Hopefully, I can do this in a way folks will understand the intent.

I'm staring fifty in the face but I am just now coming back around to brands like Case. My youth was pretty much nothing but traditionals and Buck 110-based offerings. Then I got mostly into multi-tools and fixed blades. Nothing really fancy, just stuff that was practical for my uses at the time. Then I had some thumb stud folders that were okay, and enough to get me to buy a ticket on the one-hand train. As I type this, there are seven Spyderco boxes, one Kershaw box, and two Bucks within my reach. I never really got bit by the "super steel" bug. I flirted with it but it was one of those deals that once I saw 'em naked I didn't find 'em as sexy any more. In fact, it just made me appreciate the so-called lesser steels, and the corresponding lesser prices, all the more. Now, don't mistake that as me hating on the super steels. Not at all. I think it is fascinating and love watching guys like @DeadboxHero bust open the high passes of steel. And, I think there is definitely a place for those, even if that place is just for kicks for a lot of guys.

But, a couple years ago I began a journey of finding the best knives for me. I've almost got the kitchen zeroed in but my pocket knives just haven't gotten there yet. I don't really need fixed blades any more and have given most of mine to my oldest daughter and her husband as they will use them. I bought a passel of Spyderco's but I was just always left slightly wanting. There's always something just off with a model. It's almost exactly what I want but... Then I stumbled on the French knife deal and then the traditional section here and, bang, I'm enamored. I don't know why I didn't get there sooner. I was hung up on a lock mainly I reckon.

But man, $25-50 dollars can buy a lot of knife in the Case world. Thin, slicey, easy to maintain, EDC wonderfullness.

I know I've taken the long way around the proverbial barn but I'm getting at two things:

1) In terms of a "bubble", I wonder if the knife enthusiast community will get to a point where this steel trajectory runs out of fuel and the plane noses over and things go the exact opposite way. The Pabst Blue Ribbon affect if you will. Will rising costs at some point start driving trends toward lesser steels, not lesser quality? Will lower-cost, high-performing knives become more respected and seen as the mark of a keen consumer?

2) I wonder if there is a way for Case to capitalize on this sentiment in a marketing way? Sort of, "Hey guys and gals, check us out. Do you really need a lock that can tow a tow truck? Do you just want a knife that cuts and feels good doing it?" Bang for your buck type deal.

Again, I still think the super steels are great and I'm not advocating their demise, I just think there's a lot of big manufacturers who aren't heat treating them to the point of really seeing the huge benefit and I think a lot of buyers truly don't know the difference. But in a way, the community sort of feeds on itself and the super steels are letter designations are what is promoted and admired.
 
afishhunter said:
Yo Mama Yo Mama
Let me ask you this:
At what price for gasoline do you think the majority of people will say "enough is enough! I won't pay that!" and give up their automobile?

When I started driving in 1971, a gallon of regular (leaded) gas cost between 15 point 9 and 18 point 9 CENTS, depending on if there was a "gas war" taking place.
A new full size family sedan cost under $7,000. (In 1973 you could get a new base level Camaro for under $4,000)
What a new car cost back then is not even a decent down payment for a car today.

Have the majority of people given up their cars after such tremendous increases in costs?
Nope. A small minority have (myself included), but the vast majority willingly pay up to $4.00 and more for a gallon of gas, and what a house used to cost for their vehicle.

I remember when you could get a good Made in USA name brand knife for as little as $2.00.
People willingly spend 50x that and more for a knife today.

In answer to your question: No. History shows that the "bubble" (if it exists) will not burst.
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While I'm not sure that's good comparison, I will say that a whole lot of the under-30 crowd are giving up cars. My youngest daughter is 25 and doesn't drive. Neither do the two other people in their house. And I know a several people at work with kids in that age range who aren't driving. My oldest daughter was out of the house for a year before she decided she wanted to learn. They take buses, walk, bike etc. It's not on a grand scheme, but I think there's more out there than a lot of folks realize. It isn't all fuel price related of course but the newer generations are not valuing things in the same way our older ones have. It's been that way for time and memorial I reckon.
 
I find the knife collecting hobby to be one of the most affordable out there. I collect many things and thanks to the invention of ebay the prices have skyrocketed!!!
For instance I collect watches, and ones that I could buy for only $100, 10 years ago are now min $400, heck some have gone $800-$3000. It's a hobby that if I had started now I wouldn't be able to afford.
Or another thing I collect and it might sound weird is Vintage BMX bikes. I only got back into them a few years ago but in that time the prices have more then tripped and it's become 10x harder to find them. Bikes that were $200 only 2 years ago are now $600-$800

Something is only worth what someone is willing to pay. Knife companies can increase the costs if there is the demand. Just look at Buck 110's they have been dropping in price drastically over the past couple of years.
 
The gasoline analogy wasn't very effective. ;) I remember 1971 and I don't remember 16 cent gas then as a common thing; 29 cent gas yes. But it depends on what state you're in relative to state fuel taxes. Right now in East Tennessee we have $1.75-$1.80 gas commonly. Go to Pennsylvania where I grew up and it is $2.39 or something like that. I feel sure CA is higher.

There is no bubble that is going to burst with knife manufacturers. There is no legislation pending or likely that will restrict knives like what happened with guns after Sandy Hook. Things will just keep bumping along and people will pay the asking prices without much thought simply because that is THE price if they want a certain knife. Few people are going to start carrying Ozark Trail (OT) knives because of a likely 2019 price increase on the major brands. If there is no price increase on OT stuff, you can thank Walmart and their hold on their manufacturers and suppliers. I suspect we'll see Rough Rider knives bump up a buck or so each and that started happening with their new packaging this year. There is a knife to fit every budget if you want a knife.
 
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