Nathan the Machinist
KnifeMaker / Machinist / Evil Genius
Moderator
Knifemaker / Craftsman / Service Provider
- Joined
- Feb 13, 2007
- Messages
- 18,094
The K20 pre-order is done and set in stone. For the folks who wanted one and didn't get one, I'm sorry.
but I have developed a plan...
Firstly, I kind of screwed this up a little bit, I guess, (pre-orders aren't supposed to be a madhouse) though I'm not entirely sure what I should have done differently. To the armchair quarterbacks, hear me out.
Initially, I didn't really like pre-orders but we had enough good customers who don't happen to be keyboard ninjas struggling to get the kit they need from us that we started doing pre-orders to relieve the Friday sales. At first this started out with something like a Field Knife where we would make a pattern and if the Friday sales were bananas we'd re-release it with a pre-order where we would take the money from that pre-order to buy the materials and then we'd make them. This is not a bad model but it involves setting up and re-running a pattern and as some of our patterns have become more complex and some of the manufacturing processes have evolved it becomes problematic setting up and tearing down a pattern multiple times. Patterns like the Shiv and the OG FK were probably set up over and over again 5 times in their short lives. They lacked some of the complexity of the newer patterns and they were run as side work while we were primarily a machine shop running knives on the side and running a knife production shop this way would sink us today. So, it is helpful to set up and run something one time and be done with it. So, sometimes, with something like the K18 and the DEK1-2-3 we did a pre-order and then bought the material for that pre-order. But the K20, I bought that material in advance. Like the K18, the K20 is a sword, so I had the material rolled differently with less cross rolling in order to draw the billet out along the length of the material in order to maximize certain properties I want in a sword. So instead of developing a plate or a normal sheet, we rolled the steel into long narrow strips which only yield a few pieces across its width. This needed to be piggybacked onto a heat which I did back when we got the material for the Utility Fighters. If I would have known I was going to need more material I could had added some to the DEK1-2-3 but I didn't do that. So, in order to get more material I'll need to add it to our next steel order. We buy steel in billets and we won't be buying any more steel this year, we already have the material in house for all of our upcoming projects. We'll order steel for the special production run of whatever knife our special customer orders for delivery in 2024 (2023 is already in process) and the Shiv is on the table for that. wouldn't that be exciting. But it's going to be a little while before we can run more material for a sword.
I'm rambling...
Long story short, if we would have done a regular pre-order where we take the orders and then order the steel, that material would need to be added to something else in order to get the full billet. Unless we sold 300-500 swords and that would probably do an entire billet by itself. And, because it's an experimental pattern for our particular process, that sort of thing could result in a lot of losses. If we lose half of 100 swords we'll be fine. But attempting 300 swords (which is where that pre-order was heading) would sink us if things go sideways. That's not a risk I want to take. So, given the inherent limited quantities and the difficulties in getting a little bit more material, I really couldn't accommodate more orders. I could have charged $2,500 and reduced the numbers that way but that runs contrary to our bang-for-the-buck sales model. This was a no-win situation where I couldn't satisfy everybody. You could argue "Nate you should have limited it to one per person", and perhaps I should have, but this is a pre-order and all other pre-orders in our company history a person could have as many as they want, implementing a limit of two was unprecedented and I though good enough. It's not a Friday sale! (although it sure felt like one didn't it?)
So here is the plan. I will attempt 145 swords from this batch of steel. Based on some tribal knowledge using the Delta protocol on swords I'm estimating an 80% yield which will allow us to fulfill the pre-order with some margin for error. And, in order limit potential price gouging and to address those who wanted one but didn't get one (and assuming this run is successful) I'm announcing that we will have another K20 pre-order next year when it's time to order another heat and those who were on the original pre-order on the first day will be given first consideration, in the order that they posted. Unless there's a big problem with production, the K20 is not a one time run-and-done pattern, we will come back to it and those of you who were there last Friday are first in line on the next run if you still want it.
I apologize to those who were expecting a normal pre-order and got the Friday mad-house treatment instead. It's a problem and I don't have a good answer for it but we're working on it and Jo, Mark, Bo and I appreciate your patience and your support.
(Sadie dog doesn't)
but I have developed a plan...
Firstly, I kind of screwed this up a little bit, I guess, (pre-orders aren't supposed to be a madhouse) though I'm not entirely sure what I should have done differently. To the armchair quarterbacks, hear me out.
Initially, I didn't really like pre-orders but we had enough good customers who don't happen to be keyboard ninjas struggling to get the kit they need from us that we started doing pre-orders to relieve the Friday sales. At first this started out with something like a Field Knife where we would make a pattern and if the Friday sales were bananas we'd re-release it with a pre-order where we would take the money from that pre-order to buy the materials and then we'd make them. This is not a bad model but it involves setting up and re-running a pattern and as some of our patterns have become more complex and some of the manufacturing processes have evolved it becomes problematic setting up and tearing down a pattern multiple times. Patterns like the Shiv and the OG FK were probably set up over and over again 5 times in their short lives. They lacked some of the complexity of the newer patterns and they were run as side work while we were primarily a machine shop running knives on the side and running a knife production shop this way would sink us today. So, it is helpful to set up and run something one time and be done with it. So, sometimes, with something like the K18 and the DEK1-2-3 we did a pre-order and then bought the material for that pre-order. But the K20, I bought that material in advance. Like the K18, the K20 is a sword, so I had the material rolled differently with less cross rolling in order to draw the billet out along the length of the material in order to maximize certain properties I want in a sword. So instead of developing a plate or a normal sheet, we rolled the steel into long narrow strips which only yield a few pieces across its width. This needed to be piggybacked onto a heat which I did back when we got the material for the Utility Fighters. If I would have known I was going to need more material I could had added some to the DEK1-2-3 but I didn't do that. So, in order to get more material I'll need to add it to our next steel order. We buy steel in billets and we won't be buying any more steel this year, we already have the material in house for all of our upcoming projects. We'll order steel for the special production run of whatever knife our special customer orders for delivery in 2024 (2023 is already in process) and the Shiv is on the table for that. wouldn't that be exciting. But it's going to be a little while before we can run more material for a sword.
I'm rambling...
Long story short, if we would have done a regular pre-order where we take the orders and then order the steel, that material would need to be added to something else in order to get the full billet. Unless we sold 300-500 swords and that would probably do an entire billet by itself. And, because it's an experimental pattern for our particular process, that sort of thing could result in a lot of losses. If we lose half of 100 swords we'll be fine. But attempting 300 swords (which is where that pre-order was heading) would sink us if things go sideways. That's not a risk I want to take. So, given the inherent limited quantities and the difficulties in getting a little bit more material, I really couldn't accommodate more orders. I could have charged $2,500 and reduced the numbers that way but that runs contrary to our bang-for-the-buck sales model. This was a no-win situation where I couldn't satisfy everybody. You could argue "Nate you should have limited it to one per person", and perhaps I should have, but this is a pre-order and all other pre-orders in our company history a person could have as many as they want, implementing a limit of two was unprecedented and I though good enough. It's not a Friday sale! (although it sure felt like one didn't it?)
So here is the plan. I will attempt 145 swords from this batch of steel. Based on some tribal knowledge using the Delta protocol on swords I'm estimating an 80% yield which will allow us to fulfill the pre-order with some margin for error. And, in order limit potential price gouging and to address those who wanted one but didn't get one (and assuming this run is successful) I'm announcing that we will have another K20 pre-order next year when it's time to order another heat and those who were on the original pre-order on the first day will be given first consideration, in the order that they posted. Unless there's a big problem with production, the K20 is not a one time run-and-done pattern, we will come back to it and those of you who were there last Friday are first in line on the next run if you still want it.
I apologize to those who were expecting a normal pre-order and got the Friday mad-house treatment instead. It's a problem and I don't have a good answer for it but we're working on it and Jo, Mark, Bo and I appreciate your patience and your support.
(Sadie dog doesn't)
