Do you think it's beginning to burst already?
Look at the sale forums... Ansos near makers price... GTC near makers price... Terzuolas going unsold at 800, 900, 1000 dollars... people selling their Lightfoots, Elishewitz, Kirby Lamberts, Pohan Leus, Marfiones below makers price... even makers thought untouchable like Southard and Sibert among others have taken a hit... you can't sell a folder by "Tuffthumbz" or "Will Moon" these days either. Lots of unsold knives and knives marked down to sell everywhere. Tons of seemingly stagnant inventory at the major custom knife online dealers.
I do think the market is beginning to correct itself.
It is hard to make sweeping pronouncements....I have seen Tom Mayo Knives shoot up, and go back down THREE TIMES in the last 15 years....same with Ken Onion knives. In the beginning of that cycle, about 2000-2001, there were TWO collectors having significant effect on "high end" tactical knives. One of them is a Financial Manager named Grant Wells(sp?). He recently showed up in the game again a few years ago, and significantly effected the top prices that Rexford knives were getting.
Sometimes because the market is so small, two or three collectors can send extreme ripples in the market that effect all interested in that maker or genre. If they are snapping up everything that they can get....get in line, and have a hefty chunk of change in your wallet or you cannot even play....OR....show savvy and patience....you MIGHT get lucky.
Maker price is not always a good indicator of value. Some do not stay aware of aftermarket effects on their work(rare these days) and undervalue. Some look at aftermarket price and try to get ahead of it.....that doesn't really work and when the market corrects....it leaves the makers who don't/can't correct the prices looking desperate.
If the bubble does burst who will be the losers? Do you think these price drops will continue? Will much of the greed spurred interest in these custom knives evaporate once knives begin to depreciate as soon as they are purchased? What does a situation like this mean for these dealers' unsold inventory and collectors who stand to lose thousands of dollars? What might that situation mean for the makers of these knives?
WHEN the bubble bursts, the losers will be:
1. The collectors that don't see the ebb and flow, who come in when it is all sunshine and flowers, and who are playing with money they don't have. This happened most significantly in the late '80's to early '90's with heavily engraved interframe locking folders....some of which were originally priced well north of $10,000.00 and now can be had for maybe $2,500.00. You just don't really see those pieces discussed anymore, it's like a dirty little secret.
2. The makers who got into it thinking all that they had to do was make this or that pattern and life would be milk and honey forever more. Sorry, it doesn't work that way, and there are always more "losers" than "winners". Some of the guys mentioned already should be fine in the long run..Ansos, GTC, Terzuola, Lightfoots, Elishewitz, Kirby Lambert's, Pohan Leu and Marfione.
Gus is just getting started with the creativity, and ultimately, I don't think the value of his pieces have even hit a high. Elishewitz and Lambert have NEVER been fully recognized by the market in terms of top price, so as prices start falling, that is a good time to buy. I'll be looking for beautiful Lambert knives on the aftermarket soon. Marfione OWNS a certain sector of the market(American made OTF's)...he will ALWAYS laugh all the way to the bank. However, I could easily pop off 50 makers that should hope to have a supplemental source of income, should this knife thing not work out.
3. The knife community as a whole suffers in the long run, because collectors of handmade knives and makers who supply them don't grow on trees like people who buy smartphones. IF the market expands to 500 times it's size in a cycle, it is still a small market, and the loss of perhaps 40% of those participants to correction is felt in every corner.
Coop is right to wonder if it is correction or collapse....and I feel confident in stating that this is a correction cycle, not a collapse.
For a collapse to occur, you need
everyone(every existing maker, collector and dealer) in a panic that their knives are worthless, and knives being sold for pennies on the dollar.
If that happens, you will see collectors not in evidence before swooping in to pick up these beauties for a bargain....they will come from the US, but will also come from Europe, Russia and China....the Yen is down right now, so it is unlikely that the Japanese will have a significant effect.
Best Regards,
STeven Garsson
But sometimes it's hard seeing a lot of people overly enthusiastic about something which I personally find is stupid. I feel that way about a lot of things, but I have to remind myself that each person's understanding of these things differs from my own, and it's not my job to convince them of where I think these things lie in a spectrum. My job is to embrace change and to be free and happy 
