Beneficial impacts of COVID-19 Several authors note that the reduction in tourism and other human activity may have reduced pressures on wildlife and ecosystems.
Some popular tourism destinations that have suffered from ‘overtourism and crowding’ (Spenceley, 2021b, p. 16) may have benefited from reduced visitor traffic and pollution (Kennedy & Southern, 2021; Spenceley, 2021b, p. 16). During the periods of greatest restrictions there were reports around the world of wildlife and natural areas ‘thriving in the absence of visitors’ (Spenceley, 2021b, p. 19), of animals ‘returning to places they used to live, feed or nest’ (Spenceley, 2021a, p. 12), and of animals ‘venturing into rural and urban areas, including parks and beaches, where they have not been seen for many years’ (Corlett et al., 2020, p. 2). However, ‘such benefits are likely to be ephemeral once restrictions of human movement are rolled back’ (Hockings et al., 2020, p. 10). 6. Longer-term impacts on poaching and trafficking This section of this report identifies impacts on poaching and wildlife trafficking in Southern Africa that may arise from the COVID-19 pandemic and be sustained beyond the pandemic. However, it does not attempt to discuss other long-term trends affecting poaching and wildlife trafficking in the region. Most authorities anticipate that poaching and trafficking will revert to pre-pandemic trends as restrictions imposed to reduce the spread of the disease are relaxed. The Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime, for example, anticipates that ‘once the virus has been contained by large-scale vaccinations, projected to be early 2022 in the US and the UK, later in 2022 for the EU and 2023 for the rest of the world, it is likely that poaching will resume to supply pent-up demand’ (Stiles, 2021, p. 24). A more recent presentation by a spokesperson for the Global Initiative confirmed that they have seen a general increase in poaching and trafficking of ‘high value products’, including a ‘huge uptick’ in rhino poaching in South Africa and Botswana, although this increase has not been seen in Tanzania, Kenya, and Namibia, likely due to intensive local enforcement activity (Nelson, 2022, pp. 5–6). The Wildlife Justice Commission agrees that ‘measures imposed to curb the widespread transmission of COVID-19 may have temporarily restricted illicit trade… but this is unlikely to last long. All indications presently show that the high-level trafficking networks will resume operations as soon as they are able, or will adapt and find alternative workarounds for the current blockages’ (Wildlife Justice Commission, 2020, p. 5). The UN Office on Drugs and Crime concurs: ‘it is highly likely that wildlife trafficking will not have substantially decreased… buyers and sellers will likely reorganize and increase focus on online trade channels and related mechanisms’ and poachers will exploit the fact that many conservation areas are suffering from reduced revenue leading to reduced capacity to guard against them (UNODC, 2020, p. 34). While COVID-19 persists, sporadic localised and country lockdowns and unpredictable disruptions to travel will continue to hinder traffickers’ activities and significantly reduce 16 their use of passenger air travel and road transport to move their products (Stiles, 2021, p. 24; Wittig, 2020, pp. 4–5). Over time, however, wildlife traffickers are likely to shift their modes of transport and routes, and illegal wildlife products previously transported by airline passengers will increasingly be transported via air cargo, sea cargo, or in the case of certain fragile items or live specimens, by air courier services (Wittig, 2020, pp. 4–5). Wildlife traffickers are highly adaptable and are likely to change their activities to seek out new illicit business opportunities as the environment changes. United for Wildlife anticipates that illegal wildlife traders ‘will easily adapt to the new macro market conditions and return to full profitability within 2-3 years, in line with the aftermath of the 2002-03 SARS outbreak’ (Wittig, 2020, p. 3). They also anticipate that illegal wildlife wholesalers may find opportunities arising out of the pandemic to expand their operations and market share. Restrictions on the sale and consumption of wildlife products that have recently come into force, notably in China and Vietnam, may create new illicit business opportunities such as selling and renting legally obtained wildlife trading permits, licenses, and certificates to illegal traders. Traffickers may also begin to use legal wildlife supply and distribution chains, such as supply chains for traditional Chinese medicine products, as a cover for illicit activity, possibly shifting activities towards greater emphasis on species more easily covered by the legal trade such as frogs, birds, turtles, and snakes (Wittig, 2020, p. 4). Continued restrictions on physical wildlife markets are likely to continue to incentivise the shift to online trading that has already been seen at both the wholesale and retail levels (Wittig, 2020, p. 3). This may make wildlife traffickers more vulnerable to electronic surveillance and offensive cyber operations (Wittig, 2020, p. 3) The global tourism industry will be slow to recover from the effects of the pandemic. One report indicates that recovery from past global disease crises has taken an average of 19.4 months (Global Rescue and World Travel & Tourism Council, 2019, p. 9), but the COVID-19 pandemic has been significantly more serious than most disease outbreaks. In a survey of international tourism experts in October 2020, most expected that international tourism would return to pre-pandemic levels only in 2024 or later (UNWTO, 2020). Philanthropic support for conservation efforts is also expected to recover slowly; experience from previous large-scale crises suggests that donor funding for African conservation is likely to be reduced for the next one to two years due to economic difficulties and shifting donor priorities (Lindsey et al., 2020, p. 1303). Concerns have been raised about the ability of governments to maintain commitments to wildlife conservation in the face of competing health, economic, and social priorities. In several countries, ‘arguments for rolling back environmental protections are gaining traction, including provisions that would newly authorise or expand extractive industries and infrastructure in protected and conserved areas’, justified in part by initiatives to ‘re-energise economies for a post-COVID-19 world’ (Hockings et al., 2020, p. 12). With reduced resources, conservation areas will continue to suffer reduced capacities to undertake all of their functions, including detecting and preventing poaching and responding to fires and incidents of human-wildlife conflict. The latter could lead to increased hardship to communities and in turn, reduced tolerance for wildlife and conservation work (Hockings et al., 2020, p. 11). Across Africa, United for Wildlife projects that poaching of elephants, rhinos, big cats, and other species ‘will significantly increase… in reserves and 17 protected areas which have been forced to reduce ranger force staffing levels, patrolling and intelligence operations, training, and/or equipment provision due to loss of tourism revenue or donor funds’ (Wittig, 2020, p. 2). United for Wildlife particularly anticipates problems in South Africa, Botswana, Kenya, Namibia, and Tanzania, and where protected areas ‘lack mutually positive relationships with the local communities that surround them (Wittig, 2020, p. 2). The aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic may offer opportunities for strengthening political will to act against wildlife trafficking. The zoonotic origin of COVID-19 and its connection with wildlife trafficking has highlighted risks in a way that might potentially be used to strengthen public opinion against wildlife trafficking, increase support for targeted bans, and make wildlife products less desirable, all of which could help undermine wildlife trafficking (Hockings et al., 2020, pp. 12–13; Wittig, 2020, pp. 3, 5). Increased public support could strengthen the political will to attack trafficking networks through coordinated international policy responses, stronger enforcement, and measures to increase social stigma for consuming and trading in illegal wildlife products (Wittig, 2020, p. 5). Some authors suggest that the pandemic could potentially leave a legacy of more positive public attitudes towards outdoor recreation, conservation, and protected areas. ‘COVID-19 has spurred innovation and encouraged dispersed recreation’ and public messaging about ‘the safety and health benefits of socially distanced outdoor pursuits’ could potentially create lasting benefits (Spenceley et al., 2021, p. 109). Despite restrictions in place during the pandemic, ‘people are seeking out adventure travel, natural spaces and sustainable experiences’; more diverse segments of society are visiting protected areas, there is growing interest in travel but also in ‘staycations, micro-adventures and generally in domestic tourism’ (Spenceley et al., 2021, pp. 110–111). The pandemic has highlighted ‘the connection between healthy nature and human health and well-being’, including the importance of nature for mental health; ‘urban parks and protected areas are becoming a lifeline for physical and mental health… this increased usage and interest could have additional benefits for protected and conserved areas and green space more generally (Hockings et al., 2020, pp. 12–13).
and possibly a big source of pre-ban Ivory. The result on the gene pool is that the few survivors only produce offspring with very small tusks, mans' genius again.
