Back in 2006, there was a thread about the prospects of reselling a FBM LE and recovering the purchase price. There was some talk about how Busses had appreciated in the past. I was a bit skeptical about a knife as an investment:
My son was once convinced that Beanie Babies were going to keep going up too. And baseball cards. Shoot, I once even thought that pre-ban "assault weapons" were a sure bet. Didn't quite work out that way.
A couple years down the line, a bunch of folks might realize that they really don't care that much about having 35 identical SHSHs or 25 different GWs, and all the sudden they might become a lot easier to come by.
Buy it if it's worth the price to you as a knife. Collectors' items are for suckers. That's my take on it, anyway.
YMMV, of course.
Fast forward to 2007, when Game Wardens were all the rage. Back then, some Busse knives were offered through the Busse Company Store. Each blade/handle combo was a limited run, and they were sold at the Company store where they'd often sell out in a matter of minutes, if not seconds. (If you waited around, sometimes a few woulds reappear as people's overloaded shopping carts expired, but the point is that they sold out quickly, and Busse would move on to a new combo.) Right after a new model was released, they'd appear on the Exchange at a significant mark up.
My take on that was:
It's no different than Beanie Babies or Las Vegas condos. People decide they absolutely must have things they don't need and bid up the price based on perceived shortages. And when the prices rise, more people get in and bid the prices up even higher because they're such a great investment.
I couldn't help but think the Beanie Baby effect was in full swing.
The first GW I saw in the Company Store was a Black/DC. I bought a couple of those and gave one to my son. The next one I actually saw for sale in the BCS was the Jaxx Warden, which I passed on. What I really wanted was a serrated SMOG, but I couldn't find one on the secondary market at anywhere close to what I thought was a fair price. So I started buying whatever popped up at the Company Store, thinking maybe somewhere down the road I could trade them for what I really wanted. And then I forgot to stop. And not just one, but usually two or three of each. And then there were the Rams and Buffaloes at the 'Ganzaaas. Couldn't pass on those. And then I had to go back and fill in the things I missed.
And then I started to think about how much money I was spending on these things, and I remembered the talk I had with my son many years ago about the long-term investment potential of Beanie Babies. I resolved to pick a couple favorites and sell off the rest.
But it didn't work out that way. Prices seemed somewhat depressed due to an over-saturation of the market. New issues sat in the Company Store overnight! I bought more. And more.
And now I find myself doing this:
And I think that answers the question that started this thread. I don't have a game plan. Game Warden Circles could only be the result of alien influence. I'm obviously being controlled by outside forces whose motives are unknown to me.
But even then, some people were seeing softness in the Busse aftermarket. One thread about how hard it had gotten to sell Busses started like this:
Hey guys, while I am waiting for more Boss Hog's Ganzaa picture.....and seems nothing is happening, hope you don't mind to chat with me a bit.
I was trying to prepare myself for ganzaaa, so I take a look at my CC "space"
....with
!!! I hv over $3,000+++ from buying Busse blade here and there...Really scared me....INFI ADDITION~
So, I am looking for something to let go~, so I go over to the exchange....A lotta Busse are actually NOT SOLD even they are already at INSANE price! (i mean low here) a FBM LE $727 got no takers, FSH lower $600 no takers, a lotta AD, MS are in killer price...not sold! I remember when GW LE was introduced, the little thing is $325 and went like crazy~
I look over all my FBMs...Should I bite the bullet and keep them longer. Is not like I know which to let go~~~.....but there is so much I can do....
and ganzaaaaaa
My response:
Yup. Just like Beanie Babies. Saw it coming a mile away.
Moving on to 2009, there was
another thread about a depressed aftermarket on the exchange.
"Beanie Babies!" I said, quoting from my prior comments, and then going on to say:
Basically, for the past few years we were in the midst of a speculative bubble. Now we aren't. And there are a lot of people who bought very freely for a time, and now have way more INFI than they'll ever have any real use for.
For instance:
Just kidding. You can never have enough INFI.
I'm not sure what the take-away from all that should be. Maybe it's just that Busses and Beanie Babies are subject to the same market forces, and when there's a perceived desireability and a limited supply, prices tend to go up. And when you can resell something for more than what you paid for it, it's desireability increases, and so too does its price. Until it doesn't. And when you no longer have increasing prices driving prices up, prices fall. And when people start to see the value of a Busse as its value as a knife rather than its value as a collectable or as an investment, they migh find they don't have a reason to own so many knives anymore, and prices fall even more. So you migh want to liquidate your investment now, before prices fall furhter.
On the other hand, the lesson from all this might just be that the market for Busses is cyclical. People were remarking on the weakness of the Busse aftermarket in 2007 and 2009, and probably some time in between when I wasn't paying attention. And in between dips, there seemed to be peaks. O2W has certainly shaken things up a bit, and maybe the days when you could be relatively confident you could get your money out of a Busse knife are over for good. Maybe this time it will be different. All I know is that I've been saying that Busses are Beanie Babies for a decade now, but for some reason, I still find myself buying Beanie Babies. 'Cause darn it, they're just so damn cute.
