"2008" A VERY GOOD Year?

Hi STeven,

You were correct to provide some "balance".

Much like knife shows, there are people having an exceptional year in 2008.

There are some that are having an 0k year in 2008.

There are those who are having a horrible year in 2008.

If you went purely by this thread...2008 is the greatest year ever.

If you went purely by the sales at shows....2008 is an ok year at best.

Example, this year I have only been in 6 or 7 knife magazines.

Last year I was in every issue of Blade and Knives Illustrated.

Yes, like most of you I am not happy about it either. I have spoken to the editors and I expect the necessary corrections to be made. LOL :D
 
I believe we sometimes get too hung-up measuring prosperity within the custom knife industry only by recent sales. Especially when there’s no data to effectively track sales.
By the way, I like the fact that the ABS Reno Show actually gathers and shares their show sales. I wish ALL shows did this as it's just a guess at best what show sales are otherwise.

Even if sales seem soft in a given year, it could be considered a “good” year if an increasing number of new collectors entered the community, if the knife rights movement made progress across broad lines, if custom knife organizations planted seed that would benefit the community in the future, If we increased the acceptance of custom knives in the broader art market/media and if there’s an increase in the number of makers gaining certifications.

Yes, without being overly optimistic, I believe we can find definite wins in spite of soft sales, if in fact sales are soft.

Les, all the folks that are displeased that you haven't been in the magazines more this year should write letters to the editors. That should get better results than you confronting them.
 
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Its been a good year for me. My stainless low end hunters are selling but slower than I expected. I suspect there are so many others out there that mine are not outstanding bargains but I cant afford to lower the prices or Im just trading dollars.
My cut n shoots are paying the bills now and thats fine because I love making those anyway. Our daugher just enrolled in college so next year will be the real test for me.
 
Hi Keith,

Thank you for pointing that out. Kevin...I was joking (hence the :D) after my comment. LOL :D :D :D :D :D

Kevin as far as using sales as a barometer for a good year/bad year. As someone who appreciates statistical facts as you do. From the sellers side of the table, sales totals can be used as tool to clarify Good year/bad year.

While the Reno gathering is always fun...especially for collectors and part-time makers. If sales are soft at a major show such as the ABS Show/exhibition or whatever they call it for tax purposes. That too is a barometer as to the state of the custom knife market. In particular the state of the forged blade market. As someone who sells a fair amount of forged blades...that market is a little softer than the last two years. Primarily to the amount of quality makers competing for the forged blade dollar. Combined with the continued lack of support to the makers who are tis members.

Case in point the ABS web site....the last updated for ABS Mastersmiths...2006!?!?!?! Thats right neither of the Hughes Award winners from 2007 or 2008 are listed among the Mastersmiths??? Kevin how can that be?? Still no listing for the JS Makers (something I have brought up with regularity since 2005). BTW, what happened to the discussion of overhauling the ABS Site that took place at the Board meeting in 2007. Perhaps they will have news after the 2009 Blade Show.

As STeven pointed out, a bubbling enthusiasm for custom knives and the state of a collection may not be the best indicators for the overall health of the totality of the custom knife market.

Most of us can only comment on the "health" of a particular market. Primarily as that is what interests us. Consequently, we pay closer attention to that market sector.

The custom knife market is constantly moving in a circle. With several little circles (trends) spinning inside the big circle. Next year will provide a banner year for some makers and others will be moved to the sidelines and lament how 2009 is really slow. Perhaps the scapegoat for 2009 will be the policies implemented by the new President.

One more thing to keep in mind. Those who regularly participate on the forums (with positive or negative comments relative to any post) make up a very very very small amount of those who are actively making, dealing and buying custom knives.
 
Bruce- just an aside, but I don't think you have it in you to make 'low end' anything:)
Entry level, maybe:thumbup:
 
Les Robertson said:
One more thing to keep in mind. Those who regularly participate on the forums (with positive or negative comments relative to any post) make up a very very very small amount of those who are actively making, dealing and buying custom knives.
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That seems like an obvious point, but maybe MORE obvious than one might think. I was talking to a maker at Blade. (I think it was Dan Farr.) He said that when he ran his first magazine ads, he got inquiries and orders via U.S. Mail, believe it or not. At least one of them was a HAND WRITTEN LETTER!!!:D The customer in question not only did not ever frequent the forums, but did not buy or look at knives on the internet and really didn't even use a personal computer for much of anything. Imagine that:eek: Even with this here new fangled technology, having a website or posting on the forums only works if people know you are there. I know one gentleman in the UK who, from what he told me, buys stuff from Les, True North and others every year. He knows about the various and sundry forums, but doesn't really frequent them with any degree of regularity. Yet he probably drops at least a grand or two every year on new pieces. So I ask myself, how do I reach guys like him and his knife buying friends? The only reason that I even met this guy is because my parents rent a vacation house from him for a couple of weeks every year.
The few knives that I have sold so far have, with the exception of one sold to a friend of my brother, gone out to forum members. With that said, I have only had two custom orders come in off the forums so far. The other ten were "spec" knives that I offered for sale.
I see a number of makers in the magazines who don't seem to be pursuing the hard core collector market and yet they are still there pretty much every time a new issue of the mag comes out. It seems to me that you have to be selling a few "users" to be able to pony up a minimum of $200-300 per insertion (abd often times a LOT more) for an ad in Blade, TK or KI. I ask myself how did they get there business rolling? Obiously you have to make a product that people want to buy. The trick seems to be finding your market and figuring out how best to reach it. I have only begun to even try to do that.
 
Les, a sincere thanks for your analysis and commentary. I read your posts a couple of times with great interest and now have a little better view of how 2008 got so good for me.

Paul
 
Hi Paul,

I was just stating what you already knew! LOL

Excellent products combined with excellent customer service is a winner no matter what business you are in.
 
Les,

Your reference to statistics reminded me of emperic Floyd Dominy, the erstwhile Director of the Bureau of Reclamation, who used 2-fisted lying to justify building dams at sites that terrified even his "Bob-the-Builder" engineers. His portfolio of canards included lies, damn lies, and statistics. The spectacular failure of Teton Dam is testimony to his gift for spin. His tenure, however, predated the ultimate lie-- predictive models outputs, especially "scientific" models. As an old, jaded scientist, I view all statistics and model results as lies until proven otherwise.

I profoundly admire your brave face and entrepreneurial optimism, but I'm afraid historical patterns are risky predictors of the future when fundamentals of World and America transfigure from problems into conundrums. In other words, when inputs change so do outputs.

But what convinces me most that you are a hopeless dreamer is your puerile belief in the Cubs. With your penchant for predicting the future from the past, predicting Cub success must be viewed as masochism (you're not a cutter are you?). Further, don't you recall Pinella's Seattle team that won a record number of games only to disappear in the playoffs? But not to worry, buddy, I'll have the Cub's obituary and eulogy ready to meet your pain as they remain faithful to their legacy of choke.

ken
 
Hi Joe,

People who are very active on the forums tend to think that those who are also like minded on that forum are setting the standard for many people. Those who are active and those who "lurk".

To a certain extent both are true.

A disadvantage that the forums have are "Screen Names". While those who post under a screen name may in fact be providing great information. All of us have seen huge threads of those who have misrepresented themselves. Even those who use their real names.

Consequently, many who may be casual users have learned the lesson to take most if not all of what you read on the Internet with a grain of salt...except for what I write. :D

Merchant publications will tell you that even with the Internet being as accessible as it is...it is only responsible for less than 10% of all retail sales.

While younger people are very familiar with computers...it is the 50 + boomers who posses most of the disposable income. Those 30 and under with a lot of disposable income are more interested in fashion and electronics than they are in custom knives.

Right now the key is Electronic (Internet...Web Site), Show attendance (probably the best way for new makers to market their knives) and Print.
 
HI Ken,

I understand what you are saying..what can I say. You are wrong.

Lets not side track the thread. I do appreciate the thought you put into your post.
 
Les Robertson said:
Hi Keith,

Thank you for pointing that out. Kevin...I was joking (hence the :D) after my comment. LOL :D :D :D :D :D

I thought it is pretty obviously I was being facetious as well :confused:


Kevin as far as using sales as a barometer for a good year/bad year. As someone who appreciates statistical facts as you do. From the sellers side of the table, sales totals can be used as tool to clarify Good year/bad year.

As per my last post, sales can be used, but are by NO means the only tool. There's quite a few contributing factors as to what makes a good year or a bad year. Obviously, sales are utmost important to you as you are a dealer. Collectors, show promoters, photographers all perhaps consider different factors in determining a good or bad year. Though if sheathmakers, engravers and knife photographers are having a good then there's a good chance that knife sales are up.

If in fact "2008" is a great year for the reasons I mentioned than perhaps sales will benefit next year as a result of it.

While the Reno gathering is always fun...especially for collectors and part-time makers. If sales are soft at a major show such as the ABS Show/exhibition or whatever they call it for tax purposes. That too is a barometer as to the state of the custom knife market. In particular the state of the forged blade market. As someone who sells a fair amount of forged blades...that market is a little softer than the last two years. Primarily to the amount of quality makers competing for the forged blade dollar. Combined with the continued lack of support to the makers who are tis members.

Case in point the ABS web site....the last updated for ABS Mastersmiths...2006!?!?!?! Thats right neither of the Hughes Award winners from 2007 or 2008 are listed among the Mastersmiths??? Kevin how can that be?? Still no listing for the JS Makers (something I have brought up with regularity since 2005). BTW, what happened to the discussion of overhauling the ABS Site that took place at the Board meeting in 2007. Perhaps they will have news after the 2009 Blade Show.

The ABS is suppose to have a state of the art website about to debut, but I'm sure you will find something wrong with that too when it does. You being the website expert. ;) :D

As STeven pointed out, a bubbling enthusiasm for custom knives and the state of a collection may not be the best indicators for the overall health of the totality of the custom knife market. And neither is a few month of slow sales during a recession.

Most of us can only comment on the "health" of a particular market. Primarily as that is what interests us. Consequently, we pay closer attention to that market sector.

The custom knife market is constantly moving in a circle. With several little circles (trends) spinning inside the big circle. Next year will provide a banner year for some makers and others will be moved to the sidelines and lament how 2009 is really slow. Perhaps the scapegoat for 2009 will be the policies implemented by the new President. Very true as most everything especially business moves in cycles.

One more thing to keep in mind. Those who regularly participate on the forums (with positive or negative comments relative to any post) make up a very very very small amount of those who are actively making, dealing and buying custom knives. Yep very true again.
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Good debate and varying opinions here as to the state of custom knives.
 
Hi Kevin,

The ABS is suppose to have a state of the art website about to debut, but I'm sure you will find something wrong with that too when it does. You being the website expert.
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Im no web site expert but I update mine more than every 2 years or so. Since you consider yourself to be a web site expert and an ABS expert. Any reason why they can't add the last two years Hughes Award winners to the list of Mastersmiths?

And neither is a few month of slow sales during a recession.
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The US has not been in a recession this year. As there has been positive economic growth every quarter of this year.

As per my last post, sales can be used, but are by NO means the only tool. There's quite a few contributing factors as to what makes a good year or a bad year. Obviously, sales are utmost important to you as you are a dealer. Collectors, show promoters, photographers all perhaps consider different factors in determining a good or bad year. Though if sheathmakers, engravers and knife photographers are having a good then there's a good chance that knife sales are up.

If in fact "2008" is a great year for the reasons I mentioned than perhaps sales will benefit next year as a result of it.
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Show promoters, photographers, sheath makers all consider the same factors I do.

Show promoters who don't Sell Tables or Sell Tickets at the Door...won't be promoting any more shows.

Photographers who do not Sell their photos...won't be taking photos any more...other than for a hobby.

Sheath makers who don't Sell their sheaths...won't be making sheath any more...other than a hobby.

Engravers who don't Sell their engraving...won't be engraving any more...other than for a hobby.

Suppliers who do not Sell their supplies....well you see the pattern by now.

It is not only dealers who base a good year on "Selling".

Those who do any of the above professionally (that is get money for their efforts) may consider some other things. However, if the cash flow turns negative...I can assure you the number 1 Factor will become...how much they are selling.
 
I have to disagree with Les about one thing........The 2008 Arkansas Custom Knife Show was NOT slow in terms of knife sales and attendance. A record number of knives were sold and paid attendance was over double our next best year.

The 2009 show is shaping up to be even better.

One added note, knife photography has kept ME pretty busy this year.


Chuck
 
Kevin Jones said:
Good debate and varying opinions here as to the state of custom knives.
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I'm not so sure HOW varying the "opinions on the state of custom knives" is, Kevin.

You started this post as stating "I feel 2008 has been a GREAT year for custom knives" and then going on to say "Blade Show was off the charts as compared to all others I have been to. A lot of absolutely outstanding knives have already been introduced this year and we are only just past 1/2 way."

I disagreed with those two statements, primarily....I can tell you things are rough in the factory knife arena...and that is usually an indicator of the custom arena as well...NOT a solid or sole indicator, but AN indicator.

Neither myself, Joss nor Les stated that the year in custom knives was bad....just that it wasn't great, or even VERY good...doesn't mean it is time to start collecting defaulted mortgages over knives, just means there should be some balance in a discussion like this. Everyone saying "GREAT YEAR" in unison is very misleading.

Best Regards,

STeven Garsson
 
Hi Chuck,

I wasn't there. I was going by what the makers told me...that the show was very slow and sales were off. I know I picked up 23 knives from attendee's after the show.

You are correct about attendance being up...I heard that from everyone.
 
Les, I'm sure some makers had a slow show, but the number of "sold knife" slips that the makers fill out indicated that a record number of knives were sold. We do know that occasionally a maker will forget to do this, so maybe this was just an exceptionally good year for the makers filling out the slips.....:)

Chuck
 
Hi Chuck,

Im glad to hear the show did that well. I'll be there next year. Hopefully, I can add to the number of slips turned in. :D
 
Les, I know you DO contribute to the success of our show. Had you been there and bought the same 23 knives I imagine the makers would have been telling everyone what a GOOD show it was.......:)

Chuck
 
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