Aftermarket in the Toilet?

I've watched this thread for awhile and what I'll add will hardly be worth saying, but I guess I have the right to say it.

For what it’s worth, I think in general it's good to be an optimist, but you need to temper that with realism also. I'm not a rich man by any definition but I spend thousands a year on knives. I’m not a collector looking for an ROI, I collect for the enjoyment of owning nice knives, many of which I use. I’m going to cut back on my discretionary spending some, as I see what unfolds.

Your mileage may vary, but I tend to think that the American public in general will adopt a wait and see attitude to the current economic situation, when it comes to discretionary spending.

No one I know has been laid off yet either, but I see the statistics and the unemployment rate is abysmal. The general consensus seems to be, it isn’t going to get better right away.

So, I’m not ringing any alarm bells but I’m not going to stick my head in the sand either.
 
tom mayo said:
As I have said many times over the last few months, I do not know ONE SINGLE PERSON who is not getting up, putting on their shoes, and heading out to work every single day.......
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Come to my office next week, Tom, or the week after.....we're not quite sure of the time frame or numbers just yet....and I'll be able to introduce you to a handful. In fact, maybe you can sit in my office as I personally lay some of them off myself, one by one, in order to save one of our subsidiaries from collapse as we try to prevent the sub from running out of cash due to a huge drop in sales.

The best part I like about having to lay good employees off, and unfortunately I've had to do it a couple other times in my career, is maybe we'll get to see a few mothers or fathers beg for their job and to not be let go because they have a family to support. That's always a blast and makes me feel warm and fuzzy inside. :thumbup:

THAT is the backbone of Americas economy and it is running strong!!!!
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This statement is one of the most ridiculous statements I think I've ever read.
 
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RWS said:
The best part I like about having to lay good employees off, and unfortunately I've had to do it a couple other times in my career, is maybe we'll get to see a few mothers or fathers beg for their job and to not be let go because they have a family to support. That's always a blast and makes me feel warm and fuzzy inside. :thumbup:
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It helps if you have virtually no empathy.

Best Regards,

STeven Garsson
 
All,

I don't know where all this is going. Since this thread started, I left my job at the worst time in years (but it was my call, and all in all I'm still OK with my choices). I suspect the situation isn't as bad as it sounds and I suspect that the neo-Keynesian remedies are going to be worse than the initial pain. I also suspect that the most virtuous (least debt) and most productive (wealthiest) segments of the society are going to have to pay for the others.

With this said...

Peregrin said:
The general consensus seems to be, it isn’t going to get better right away.

So, I’m not ringing any alarm bells but I’m not going to stick my head in the sand either.
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There is an argument to be made that when the general consensus says black is the right time to go white, and vice versa. (But I also agree that to stick your head in the sand isn't going to help.)

As a side note, vendors, makers, and collectors all have an incentive to say that the market is better than it is. Think about it. (It also doesn't mean we/they're lying.)
 
Kohai999 said:
It helps if you have virtually no empathy.

Best Regards,

STeven Garsson
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STeven, what really helps me mentally is after letting all these people go, is knowing that I'll still get to drive my new company car home with my company gas card to a big house my company paid for while I draw a huge salary and bonus. Yep, screw the poor victims cuz I'm sittin' pretty.

Kidding aside, there's nothing like going through this stuff and watching these folks in person get unexpectedly blindsided. If I had to take a pay cut to save some of them I would. :(
 
RWS said:
STeven, what really helps me mentally is after letting all these people go, is knowing that I'll still get to drive my new company car home with my company gas card to a big house my company paid for while I draw a huge salary and bonus. Yep, screw the poor victims cuz I'm sittin' pretty. :thumbup::D

Kidding aside, there's nothing like going through this stuff and watching these folks in person get unexpectedly blindsided. :(
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Wasn't particularly kidding, my friend.:o

When I first moved to SoCal, got a job at a call center, launching Sprint PCS service in the SoCal region....a lot of people didn't make it through the 4 week training process, I did, and was promoted to Supervisor....got my first taste of cutting employees loose on another program, and I still remember it...not fun, had to be done.

So....I move to another company, and the boss hires a complete a-hole for a manager, who I warned to keep things professional, and not personal.....the other employees looked up to me as a "knight in rusty armor"....long story short, I beat the puss out of Mr. Manager because he forgot his place in the world, and we both got canned, day before my 35th birthday. Got a few calls from a friend at work, we are still close to this day....the others? They were glad it wasn't them that got canned.

Just like knife collecting, better they get the shaft than you....I have made a lot of friends, good friends over the years of collecting, but that is not why I got into it....it is about the knives....and with employment....it is about working and the money.

As bad as it is for the people you have to let go...you still have a job...and that is the bottom line....you can feel bad about it if you want, but I don't have the internals wired like that any more.

Personally, I will be glad if you keep YOUR job!

Best Regards,

STeven Garsson
 
The 'wait and see attitude' which has been attributed to the consumer in a previous post, in itself, will cause problems. I have zero doubt in that.

Every day that consumers decide not to spend money, is a day that those who have items to sell, and who rely on cash flow, will hurt. Those days add up.

As part of the cycling of cash, when it is interrupted for whatever reason, the repercussions don't happen immediately in all segments of the economy, but I think it's safe to say that large economic changes will eventually effect everybody.

Some of those people, with good timing and positioning going into the toilet bowl of our economy, could make out like bandits in times such as these, but the vast majority of people will have quite the opposite experience. I have my fingers crossed that I am in the former category, but will only know the truth of the matter in the fullness of time.

One thing that I can say, is that I've been extremely lucky with the chances I've taken to get where I am, and as long as I hold the course at this point I should be doing pretty good in a few years. I would not have that optimism if I had been more conservative in my risk taking and ended up in a more 'secure' job. It's kind of ironic, now that I think about it:)
 
Lorien said:
The 'wait and see attitude' which has been attributed to the consumer in a previous post, in itself, will cause problems. I have zero doubt in that.

Every day that consumers decide not to spend money, is a day that those who have items to sell, and who rely on cash flow, will hurt. Those days add up.

As part of the cycling of cash, when it is interrupted for whatever reason, the repercussions don't happen immediately in all segments of the economy, but I think it's safe to say that large economic changes will eventually effect everybody.

Some of those people, with good timing and positioning going into the toilet bowl of our economy, could make out like bandits in times such as these, but the vast majority of people will have quite the opposite experience. I have my fingers crossed that I am in the former category, but will only know the truth of the matter in the fullness of time.

One thing that I can say, is that I've been extremely lucky with the chances I've taken to get where I am, and as long as I hold the course at this point I should be doing pretty good in a few years. I would not have that optimism if I had been more conservative in my risk taking and ended up in a more 'secure' job. It's kind of ironic, now that I think about it:)
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Good post Lorien
 
Joss said:
One problem is that we don't know the aggregated numbers for the knife markets. We don't know how much more or less people are buying vs. last year, we don't know how the mix has shifted, we don't know anything.

Personally, I don't think talking negatively about a phenomenon will make it worse and I don't think that thinking (and saying) "happy thoughts" will make it better. I do think that anyone's worst enemy lives in one's head. Not sure if it applies in any way here.
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Joss, you don't think that Joe Public seeing how bad things are in his morning paper then coming home and seeing how bad things are on the evening news makes things worst. You don't think this affects purchases and employment? You don't think this affects the financial markets?
The media has much influence on the economy.
 
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tom mayo said:
As I have said many times over the last few months, I do not know ONE SINGLE PERSON who is not getting up, putting on their shoes, and heading out to work every single day.......
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Tom , in less than 48 hours bro , I may be your first one. Will know Thursday. :thumbdn:

Does it suck ? Indeed , but I will find work ( in some form ) , if I can't find a job making what I am now , I will find 2 jobs , or 3...either way , kids will be fed , bills will get paid.
 
Kevin- I don't give the media that much weight. If the shit is going down, it's because the shit is going down.

The media will try and make money off 'it', but can only perpetuate so much til the next story grabs our attention. The media, more than most industries, is totally consumer driven. Yes, messages can be hijacked, but the fact remains- the news and what the media produces, is a commodity, and one which is the most liquid of any commodity. 24/7!

To credit the media with the power to influence the economy I think is to give that industry too much credit, by way of being organized and on the same page. Too many smart people with divergent opinions, plus the 'level playing field' of capitalism and the competition it breeds.

Now, the oil industry, and the auto industry, and the stock industry, and the money lending industry- there's some power to affect the economy:eek:.

A government that does not regulate commerce is one that has no meaning. What need for a government, if it does not provide a terms of reference and arbitration when it comes to the economy they're elected to manage? Everything else is meaningless, if there is no economy there to bind a country.

If America is still free, then the media will never be an effective tool for propaganda. Advertising is much more effective for that. Competition takes care of the rest.

Now, when you see a state owned media, like the Nazis and Commies had, then I think we should really be worried. Of course, by that time, worrying would be the least of our worries;)

P.s. Just because I'm outspoken, doesn't mean I'm right. :)
 
Lorien said:
Kevin- I don't give the media that much weight. If the shit is going down, it's because the shit is going down.

The media will try and make money off 'it', but can only perpetuate so much til the next story grabs our attention. The media, more than most industries, is totally consumer driven. Yes, messages can be hijacked, but the fact remains- the news and what the media produces, is a commodity, and one which is the most liquid of any commodity. 24/7!

To credit the media with the power to influence the economy I think is to give that industry too much credit, by way of being organized and on the same page. Too many smart people with divergent opinions, plus the 'level playing field' of capitalism and the competition it breeds.

Now, the oil industry, and the auto industry, and the stock industry, and the money lending industry- there's some power to affect the economy:eek:.

A government that does not regulate commerce is one that has no meaning. What need for a government, if it does not provide a terms of reference and arbitration when it comes to the economy they're elected to manage? Everything else is meaningless, if there is no economy there to bind a country.

If America is still free, then the media will never be an effective tool for propaganda. Advertising is much more effective for that. Competition takes care of the rest.

Now, when you see a state owned media, like the Nazis and Commies had, then I think we should really be worried. Of course, by that time, worrying would be the least of our worries;)

P.s. Just because I'm outspoken, doesn't mean I'm right. :)
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What you say sounds good and you almost have me believing it. ;) :D

I'm by no means saying things aren't bad however how many cars, appliances, homes, TVs, vacations etc. don't get bought because of the constance negative media hype?

How much of the recent stock market sell-offs is directly caused by the same? Things are bad and they are making it worst.
 
so light a match in a theater "then" yell fire,

just because it's technically true doesn't help the fact that you incited panic over a very meaningless issue......
 
stephanfowler said:
so light a match in a theater "then" yell fire,

just because it's technically true doesn't help the fact that you incited panic over a very meaningless issue......
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How about the folks yelling "THERE'S NO FIRE, EVERYTHING IS OK!", when in reality the place is ablaze? ;)

I guess we could argue that nothing is really happening, bad or good, and it's all just a matter of personal interpretations based on an individual's own perceptions and definitions of what's truly going on.
 
RWS said:
How about the folks yelling "THERE'S NO FIRE, EVERYTHING IS OK!", when in reality the place is ablaze? ;)

I guess we could argue that nothing is really happening, bad or good, and it's all just a matter of personal interpretations based on an individual's own perceptions and definitions of what's truly going on.
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I'm sorry my comment was not meant to imply that the current economy is happy hunky dory,

it was simply a metaphor to illustrate how panic can easily be created a very large problem over a small issue that could have been very simply resolved.

when you realize that more people voted on the next American idol than any presidential election. you have to realize that a vast majority of the public defines their lives based upon the input of the media. Whatever their chosen media happens to be, rather than any real moral compass or reality.
 
RWS said:
I guess we could argue that nothing is really happening, bad or good, and it's all just a matter of personal interpretations based on an individual's own perceptions and definitions of what's truly going on.
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Obviously, this is more than a bump in the road, and patience will be the key.

Some perceptions to help get us through...

"A debt will always be paid, by either the lender or the borrower." - Earl Estep

"The best laid plans of mice and men go oft astray." - Robert Burns

"Money does not make you happy, but it sure quiets the nerves." - Sean O'Casey

"Things are so slow around here, that even the people who don't pay have quit buying things." - Roger Dillion

"Christmas is a time when kids tell Santa what they want and the adults pay for it. Deficits are when adults tell the government what they want and their kids pay for it." - Richard Lamm

"A nickel ain't worth a dime anymore." -Yogi Berra


- Joe
 
canineforge said:
Some perceptions to help get us through...


"Things are so slow around here, that even the people who don't pay have quit buying things." - Roger Dillion

"Christmas is a time when kids tell Santa what they want and the adults pay for it. Deficits are when adults tell the government what they want and their kids pay for it." - Richard Lamm
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LOL. Thanks, canine.

Those two are my favorite. I want to squeeze them into a discussion tomorrow at work.
 
stephanfowler said:
I'm sorry my comment was not meant to imply that the current economy is happy hunky dory,

it was simply a metaphor to illustrate how panic can easily be created a very large problem over a small issue that could have been very simply resolved.

when you realize that more people voted on the next American idol than any presidential election. you have to realize that a vast majority of the public defines their lives based upon the input of the media. Whatever their chosen media happens to be, rather than any real moral compass or reality.
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Thank you Stephan. You communicated the point I was trying to make to Lorien's post very well.
 
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