Aftermarket in the Toilet?

I dont think anyone would argue that the housing market isnt in the toilet, yet when talking to some realtors of the uber expensive properties, investment grade stuff, it is business as usual and in some cases business is even better. Does this mean the housing market is not in the toilet?
 
TennKnifeman said:
While it is irresponsible to yell "Fire!" in a crowded theater, I personally feel it is irresponsible to predict doom of the aftermarket with little knowledge or experience of how the knife market generally behaves in downturns--because it might tend to panic some collectors who are new to the game.
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totally agree.
 
severedthumbs said:
I dont think anyone would argue that the housing market isnt in the toilet, yet when talking to some realtors of the uber expensive properties, investment grade stuff, it is business as usual and in some cases business is even better. Does this mean the housing market is not in the toilet?
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What realitors are you talking to :confused:
The uber expensive homes that investors buy in this market are the ones they can get at 60 cents on the dollar or better.
 
Hi Severed,

No the housing market is not in the toilet....unless you overpaid for a house. California, Nevada and Florida lead the way.

Only 3% of mortgages are in foreclosure. The majority of these have occurred from two groups of people:

1) Those using stated income to get a loan for a house they could not afford.

Generally from either getting an ARM (claiming later they didn't understand that A stood for Adjustable) or getting the interest only loan. Once the "Adjustment" kicked in or the loan switched to a principle and interest loan.

Note every person who recieved these loans signed a line on the contract that stated they understood what an ARM or an Interest Only Loan was about. In court the judge would be inclined to look at the Loan holder and say "Is this your signature?"

2) The "Flip This House" group.

Real Estate Professionals...understand that even in slow and/or volatile markets there are silver linings.

Compare today's interest rates to the late 70's they are about half of what they were then.

The bubble has burst and for those who can afford the depreciated price of a very nice house can in fact get a loan and move into their house. The government is even giving a $7,000 tax break to those buying their first house. Yes....you have to be a US Citizen (another lesson learned from the housing debacle).

Perhaps we have all learned the necessary lesson (that we should all have learned with our first job). If you can't afford it....you don't buy it.

The custom knife market was in much worse shape in the early 90's when the Japanese market collapsed. The custom knife world lost a large majority of it's high dollar buyers. Who in turn were forced to liquidate their assets and took huge hits on their knives. As you can imagine this had a very negative affect on the US market.

If you get a chance look up Barrett and Smythe Knives. Theirs is a very interesting story. Talk about a bubble bursting in the custom knife market.

The custom knife market is always in a state of flux. This for the most part is not seen by the average collector. The same ones who loudly proclaim...I buy what I like and I don't care about the after market. Interesting how many seem to care....now.

Perhaps there is a lesson(s) to be learned from the current market.

Yes things are slow, although my by November 5th my November was already better than my October. LOL So things are already starting to improve again.

Severed,

If you don't like what your investments are doing get with a Certified Financial Planner and make a new investment strategy.

If you don't like your bank....get a new one.

If you don't like the taxes you are paying...Hire a CPA and possibly a Tax Attorney to learn how you can legally reduce the taxes you will owe.

If you really think the custom knife market is in the toilet...sell your knives and get a new hobby.

If you think the market is really that bad....imagine selling custom knives is your profession.

See, your not a dealer...you should be :):):)

It can always be worse. Although you may be the exception to the rule! :D
 
Les Robertson said:
Hi Severed,

No the housing market is not in the toilet....unless you overpaid for a house. California, Nevada and Florida lead the way.

Only 3% of mortgages are in foreclosure. The majority of these have occurred from two groups of people:

1) Those using stated income to get a loan for a house they could not afford.

Generally from either getting an ARM (claiming later they didn't understand that A stood for Adjustable) or getting the interest only loan. Once the "Adjustment" kicked in or the loan switched to a principle and interest loan.

Note every person who recieved these loans signed a line on the contract that stated they understood what an ARM or an Interest Only Loan was about. In court the judge would be inclined to look at the Loan holder and say "Is this your signature?"

2) The "Flip This House" group.

Real Estate Professionals...understand that even in slow and/or volatile markets there are silver linings.

Compare today's interest rates to the late 70's they are about half of what they were then.

The bubble has burst and for those who can afford the depreciated price of a very nice house can in fact get a loan and move into their house. The government is even giving a $7,000 tax break to those buying their first house. Yes....you have to be a US Citizen (another lesson learned from the housing debacle).

Perhaps we have all learned the necessary lesson (that we should all have learned with our first job). If you can't afford it....you don't buy it.

The custom knife market was in much worse shape in the early 90's when the Japanese market collapsed. The custom knife world lost a large majority of it's high dollar buyers. Who in turn were forced to liquidate their assets and took huge hits on their knives. As you can imagine this had a very negative affect on the US market.

If you get a chance look up Barrett and Smythe Knives. Theirs is a very interesting story. Talk about a bubble bursting in the custom knife market.

The custom knife market is always in a state of flux. This for the most part is not seen by the average collector. The same ones who loudly proclaim...I buy what I like and I don't care about the after market. Interesting how many seem to care....now.

Perhaps there is a lesson(s) to be learned from the current market.

Yes things are slow, although my by November 5th my November was already better than my October. LOL So things are already starting to improve again.

Severed,

If you don't like what your investments are doing get with a Certified Financial Planner and make a new investment strategy.

If you don't like your bank....get a new one.

If you don't like the taxes you are paying...Hire a CPA and possibly a Tax Attorney to learn how you can legally reduce the taxes you will owe.

If you really think the custom knife market is in the toilet...sell your knives and get a new hobby.

If you think the market is really that bad....imagine selling custom knives is your profession.

See, your not a dealer...you should be :):):)

It can always be worse. Although you may be the exception to the rule! :D
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Thanks for that read Les, I gained much knowledge. :thumbup:
 
A. G. Russell said:
Mike, I was only suggesting that what happened to Buster and to many less than godlike makers in the past might possibly happen to you. Your post seemed to indicate that you could not even dream of such a thing. I will be VERY happy to find that you are right and I am wrong.

If you think I have hard thoughts of you, please do not. Once you stopped attacking me and my friends, I became aware of the quality of your work and even attempted to order, I was pleased to find that you were too busy to sell to me. For 40 years it has been a pretty good bet that any friend of Bob Loveless was bound, sooner or later, to be a friend of mine.

Good luck and a long life! A. G.

P.S. Living good is a state of mind, since meeting Goldie, I have indeed lived well, with money or without.
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Thanks AG! Glad it is behind us!
I know what you mean. Manuela makes Life worth living for me. Good times of Bad. It is always better because of her.

The one thing that will allays help in bad times for us, is that for good bad, Manuela and I both seem to care less about money than most. Probably why we are doomed to be less than wealthy. But we very much enjoy life, and our friends. We would have it no other way.

How wonderful to making a living at what you truly enjoy! Most work their lives out trying to accumulate enough to be able to enjoy a little of that life before they die. Usually between retirement and bad health and death!
We will never be able to retire. But we love it so!

Mike and Manuela
 
Les:

Where you wrote:
Most of those who are very active in the aftermarket (read dealers) are primarily looking at the same 25 makers. This is due to both the demand (short and long term) and the arbitrage factor.
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Would it be safe to say that rather than the aftermarket being down , that for buyers of investment worthy pieces ( the 25 ) the market is still solid , and that for others ( outside the 25 ) it may just be that the prices are being more brought more in line and realistic to actual worth ( perhaps hype wore off , newness wore off , etc ) ?

The $$$ is still out there , and the folks that want to spend it will. I am seeing it now with the firearm stuff , a local store here did well over $50K on Saturday alone. ( I can't say how much over as I was asked not to ).
 
HI John,

You are exactly right!

Yes, I do think that the aftermarket is being affected by the current economy.

However, your assessment is right on. What many see as trouble in the after market (not being able to make double or triple on a knife that you could 8 months ago) or (not being able to get even your money back if you were one of those people who paid a premium of double or triple).

Often times these are the ones who complain the loudest. Don't you wish you would have bought Gold when the "experts" were telling you it could still double ....price $900 and ounce....now that it is selling for $746 an ounce. Severed there is a silver lining to this if you bought gold 5 years ago at $340 an ounce...you could still almost make double if you sold tomorrow. :D

I think this economy will serve those makers well who offer a value price. Perhaps those who have to sell their knives at a loss will, in the future do a little more homework. Blade Magazine has asked me to write an article on "What to look for in knives that will appreciate in value." A very timely article for those who may actually want to purchase knives that have a chance to go up in value.

There will be makers who typically sell out that may have a few knives now at the end of the show.

Ultimately how the maker responds to this will determine if they will be around in 2010 or remain as sought after in the "Collective/Collector consciousness" 18 months from now.

The "top 25" is not a static group. This group is in fact fluid. The membership is more determined by the collectors than the makers. This group is sought after primarily because their knives can be turned for a profit very quickly.

Once demand for the makers work slows or a certain ROI can no longer be maintained....the maker drops from the Top 25. More times than not through no fault of their own.

The savvy makers enjoy the ride, maintain their prices and reward those who were there at the beginning. As when they fall from favor those collectors who were there at the beginning will still be there with interest in their work wanes.

Interesting about the guns. There is a store in Ft. Worth TX..."Cheaper Than Dirt" did $300,000.00 a day in gun and ammo sales starting Wednesday after the Election, every day for at least 3 days (the story aired last Friday).

People seem to be a little concerned about the President Elect's stance on firearms.

Perhaps some of the knife money has found its way into the gun market. When the gun market tightens up because of regulation restraints. Many of these buyers turn to guns. I have a fairly large gun selection from the mid to late 90's from people trading guns for knives.....NICE GUNS!

Good Questions John!
 
Hi Severed,

Glad you found that informative.

Home Depot showed a very slow 3rd Quarter the year. The reason? Slowed demand for housing...No. Slowing of people looking to "Flip This House"....No.

What then????

A slow Hurricane season really cut into their sales of Home Depot staples...Plywood, Nails, Screws, Batteries, Flashlights, Tools...etc.

They blame George Bush. Which seems fair...he got the Blame for the Hurricane's a couple of years ago. Might as well Blame him for a very minor Hurricane season. :D

Apparently he can actually control the weather.
 
Les Robertson said:
HI Lorien,

I was referring to a person winning a lottery knife at a show. Then turning around and selling it for a profit immediately.
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Hefty profit, Les, hefty profit.:D

TWO weeks after Lorien started this post, I went to the Plaza Show and made some HEFTY PROFITS....

Sold some lesser knives(IMO) and turned some good ones. One of the knives that I picked up at the show, after a 3 year wait, was a stag Bill Ruple Copperhead...which I am keeping....but were I so inclined....could sell it for, you guessed it...HEFTY profit.

Now:

1) There is NO real profit in a knife until you sell it...so what it MIGHT be worth "sometime down the road" is pretty useless...until it sells..that is a gamble, and always will be, some are safer than others.

2) Know how you are selling to, before the sale. There was a SPECTACULAR men's trousseau produced by Richard Rogers and Simon Lytton. It was $20,000 and at the show, it did not sell. I am not sure if it sold yet, or even if the gentlemen had a buyer in mind for this, but seems to me, that is a big chunk to be gambling on.

It is a gamble, boys JUST like the stockmarket, buying large volumes of gold, or real estate...if you cannot afford to lose a healty chunk of your money that is tied up into knives...you just might want to keep to the books and pretty pictures...and those of you who find this a flip comment, I was dirt poor twice in my life already, on food stamps the first time...and I know what it means to WANT!

I'm still buying, but have very few orders lined up, and it will probably stay that way, but will always be looking for the "special" piece...and so will Lou DeSantis, Mike Donato, Dave Ellis, Gon Guild, Dan Favano, Walter Hoffman, Bob Neil, Neil Ostroff, Les Robertson, Mike Talanian.........It's a shark tank, I tell ya' boys and girls!:eek::D:eek:

Best Regards,

STeven Garsson
 
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This has been an interesting thread.

We can focus on the Bad or the Good. I choose to focus on the Good.

From where I sit, the custom knife market is very strong, both the
primary and secondary.

If it weren't for the media, I wouldn't know there was an economic problem :o
 
I just visited a local art/crafts sales gallery (www.artistsmarket.com Where the owner picked up the William Henry line, after joining me at a show a few years ago. Smart move, as he relates).

According to him sales are as good as ever. We chatted and discussed that, although markets are 'down' in other areas, even to those affected, purchasing discretionary items and goods that give them pleasure must win out over the hype.

He expects a VERY good holiday season. So do I. :thumbup:

Coop
 
I have taken six orders for knives in the $350.00 - $950.00 range in the past month.
I try to associate myself with positive thinking people. I remember a quote from years ago made by Norman Vincent Peale that was on a television commercial. I have not been able to find the exact quote, but it went something like this.
"If you think yourself down, you will be down, but if you think yourself up, you will be up"

Failure is not an option to me. I can not go to Walmart or Lowes and make the money that I can make in my shop on a slow week. If my knife business slows down to where I can not make a living, I will make something else.
If there is work to be done or something to be made, I will be doing it. It may not be knives, but I will do what it takes to provide for my family. I am like everyone else. I am tightening my purse strings. I am selling stuff that is laying around my house and shop that I do not use or do not see a use for it in the foreseeable future. I am trying to pay off as many bills that I can. I am not making any unnecessary purchases or getting into more debt. I may moan and groan a bit but I will not give up. I am not wired that way. I will fight till the end. Here is another quote that I like. " Never concede defeat and you will never be defeated"

So, until the bottom falls out, I will keep making knives and I will ride it out till the orders stop coming in.

"ENDEAVOR TO PERSEVERE"

Bobby Branton
 
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Bobby Branton said:
"If you think yourself down, you will be down, but if you think yourself up, you will be up"
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I'm not sure that "thinking yourself up, you will be up" type of thinking works for me anymore. I usually need a Viagra to get up. :D
 
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RWS said:
I'm not sure that "thinking yourself up, you will be up" type of thinking works for me anymore. I usually need a Viagra to pull it off. :D
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IMHO

I very much believe in the idea "If you think yourself down, you will be down"

the inverse is up for debate
 
WHEN is this thread going to die?????


While the housing market is definitely doing very poorly..........a direct result of all the Clintons did for us while they were "in office"......ALL of those people still need a place to live, and the rental market is booming.

As I have said many times over the last few months, I do not know ONE SINGLE PERSON who is not getting up, putting on their shoes, and heading out to work every single day.......

THAT is the backbone of Americas economy and it is running strong!!!!
 
tom mayo said:
As I have said many times over the last few months, I do not know ONE SINGLE PERSON who is not getting up, putting on their shoes, and heading out to work every single day.......

THAT is the backbone of Americas economy and it is running strong!!!!
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I know lots of people that have been laid off and not heading to work every single day. The unemployment rate in this country is horrible right now.
 
Hi Severed,

Actually the unemployment rate has been very low for the last 8 years (comparatively).

When you look at the unemployment rate you have to factor in those who have made welfare their job.

They may not go to work...but they get a check.

If illegals were removed from the work force and those on welfare for more than two years were given the choice...work or no check. You would see the unemployment rate drop by 50%.

Remember, people are always leaving their jobs...being fired, quitting, downsizing, etc.

The key to staying employed is developing a skill set prior to losing your job that will allow you to get another job.

When you look for negatives about the economy you have only to look to the media.

Don't worry, as soon as the new President is sworn in....the media will start telling you how great everything is....it has to.
 
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