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Thanks also Joe. We needed that.
RWS, they are also my favorites.
:thumbup: I think that's the first thing we have agreed on.
But different opinions is what makes this forum so fun and interesting.
Aftermarket in the Toilet?
- Thread starter Lorien
- Start date
Thanks also Joe. We needed that.
RWS, they are also my favorites.
:thumbup: I think that's the first thing we have agreed on.
But different opinions is what makes this forum so fun and interesting.
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diminishing the significance of the choice of roughly 50 percent of American voters, for a president that they see as 'the right choice for the country', I think is much more damaging than portraying the future economy as becoming more bleak, as it incites nothing but apathy, distraction, blame or rebellion.
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I don't think that talking about the current crisis negatively will make it worse. To addresses points in your post above, purchases don't drive the economy. I know this is the current neo-Keynesian creed in fashion but I don't subscribe to it. Investments - and only investments - drives the economy.
I largely disagree with that, with the one giganormous caveat that the media does help to push political action, which means it drives how our tax dollars are spent.
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This thread is too depressing.
I will continue to buy/sell and enjoy the pleasure derived from custom knives and leave the handful of you (who most I have doubts as to how many knives you buy/sell anyway) to cry in yours beers about the customs industry going down the drain.
I will continue to buy/sell and enjoy the pleasure derived from custom knives and leave the handful of you (who most I have doubts as to how many knives you buy/sell anyway) to cry in yours beers about the customs industry going down the drain.
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Joss, I largely agree with Kevin here; The media greatly effects consumer spending.
The media loves a 'Big Story' and will milk it for all it's worth.
Good one, Joe!
I'm off to work, gotta get some knives made!
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In my post I mentionned that consummer spending is NOT what drives the economy. If it were, we could pass a law demanding that all US households get rid of their existing cars. That would swiftly reinject demand for GM and the rest and, abracadabra, the billions spent would save the economy. Or we could brake all the windows, etc.
What drives the economy is innovation, i.e., investment.
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I will also continue to purchase knives. Right now I have half a dozen on order, and that number usually stays fairly constant. My purchases have never been more than five in a year, and with the orders that I have with makers right now, that number probably won't change for the next year, but I will not be adding more orders for awhile (well, maybe one).
Kevin has commented in the past that he thinks that collectors have too many orders in with makers. Maybe the economic situation will do a little correcting as far as that is concerned.
With the economy the way it is, there may well end up being a glut of custom knives being sold on the aftermarket. This could be good for those looking for a deal, but might not be good for those expecting to turn a profit on the knives they are selling.
Whatever the case may be, it will be interesting to study what happens in the custom knife market over the next couple of years. Most of the people alive today have not seen the economy take the kind of hit that is happening right now. When things turn around, and they will, it will have been very educational.
Kevin has commented in the past that he thinks that collectors have too many orders in with makers. Maybe the economic situation will do a little correcting as far as that is concerned.
With the economy the way it is, there may well end up being a glut of custom knives being sold on the aftermarket. This could be good for those looking for a deal, but might not be good for those expecting to turn a profit on the knives they are selling.
Whatever the case may be, it will be interesting to study what happens in the custom knife market over the next couple of years. Most of the people alive today have not seen the economy take the kind of hit that is happening right now. When things turn around, and they will, it will have been very educational.
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i am quoting myself. read the last few sentences of my post. that was 2 months ago.
Kohai999
Second Degree Cutter
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I spoke with Ellis and Favano about two days ago.....things are kicking butt, new price records are being broken, and they are busy.....lower end stuff is not moving briskly....if you need the telephone numbers in order to verify this information, links will be provided.
Would also state that Dave and Dan have not lied to me in the time I have known them...even if the news is bad.
Best Regards,
STeven Garsson
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The pattern of my aftermarket business in previous periods of market stress: Customers getting out of the "Market" would buy the most collectable and expensive knives in my inventory and this would continue until the "Market" began to look better and they would stop buying and generally I would not hear from them until the next downturn.
RWS
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Folks, we are going to get through this. For me it's about just staying positive and hopeful and having faith about the future of this great country.
Don't go selling your knives off in some stoopid panic. Buy what you like and let's just continue to enjoy this great hobby of ours while all this crap is going on.
If you feel you may be laid off, watch how you spend for awhile. Things will get better at some point and that is a fact.
Don't go selling your knives off in some stoopid panic. Buy what you like and let's just continue to enjoy this great hobby of ours while all this crap is going on.
If you feel you may be laid off, watch how you spend for awhile. Things will get better at some point and that is a fact.
Kohai999
Second Degree Cutter
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I don’t think that it is negative or defeatist to talk about a bad economy….although I am fairly sure that nobody here has a solution for improvement.
The negative was in the choice of thread title, and the persistent drumbeat of doom by many parties who simply don't have enough experience with regard to knife collecting to be taken seriously by those who know better, who have been through 20 or more years of collecting through a variety of economic conditions. This one MAY be a "perfect storm", but no single person knows if that is the case right now.There are some outstandingly good points in this thread made by A.G. Russell, Les Robertson, Bruce Voyles and many others….things that all collectors should pay attention to, and try to pass on to the next generation of collectors that THEY influence.:thumbup:
Having been around for a while, and making my fair share of mistakes, the number one rule in good times and bad is don’t play with scared money.
This means if you cannot afford to lose it, don’t play….ESPECIALLY if you have a wife, children and/or a lower paying job. Buy the best knife that appeals to you that is affordable, and let the collecting come when you have some room to move, better income, dual income, kids grown and your time is more your own…..not much else to say, really.
Best Regards,
STeven Garsson
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Steven very well said:thumbup: By the way this crisis isn't only hitting the US it's worldwide. I've been selfemployed for the last decade or so and have never been out of work for one single day. At the end of last week Ive learned that because of the financial crisis the contract I have with my two current principals will not be prolonged (actually they are terminating my contract premature) starting January 2009. That means that Im out of an income until I find one or more other orders. Normally that would not have been a "problem" but given the times were living in that will be not as easy as it was in the past. In the meantime I will have to live on my financial reserves. That is fortunately no problem (at least not for a fairly large amount of time) but I sure will and have cut down on buying and ordering knives for the coming period.
By the way I'm old enough to have lived and experienced the eighties consciously and that was no picknick either (12% mortgage rate for instance)
Marcel
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OK, Joss. I see where you're coming from. I'll agree, consumer spending does not drive the economy but I still feel, it is a big part of the economy.
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You are right, about That Show. It was slow as hell. But I don't blame the economy or the toilet for that one. Not sure what's going on there.
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That could be the silver lining to all this. We could end up with a stronger secondary market.
Good advise RWS.
By the way I'm old enough to have lived and experienced the eighties consciously and that was no picknick either (12% mortgage rate for instance)
Marcel
Good point Marcel.
I purchased my first business in July 1979, the prime rate toped out at 21.5% in December 1980. Now the early eighties were hard times, but opportunities were created.
severedthumbs
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you really think that the wealthiest .1% of buyers is an accurate representation of the aftermarket in general?
Kohai999
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No, of course not.
Generally the wealthiest of the wealthy did something to get that way, and tend to stay that way(Getty, Rockefeller, Guggenheim, Soros(rot in hell!).....)
The point was that MartinR was patting himself on the back with a post made some months ago, and the state of the aftermarket is not dead or in the toilet, even....if it is nothing but a sliver wrt to Ellis and Favano, it is still not ALL doom and gloom.
I can only speak to my own situation regarding the aftermarket, which I have been active in for the last 15 years. Nothing of interest has come up lately.....on Nordic, here in the for sale section or elsewhere....when it does, and the price is right...I will buy it.....and many of my friends in similar financial situations, with similar taste in knives have the same attitude.
Even so, I am not happy about the hit that MY wallet is taking in a variety of sectors.
Best Regards,
STeven Garsson