Aftermarket in the Toilet?

[TennKnifeman]

Please do not start a political rant (in either direction) on this thread. I've enjoyed this thread so far--but political opinions need to go somewhere else.

 

[RWS]

So panic if you like. Think negative if you like. But there are plenty of dealers and auctioneers (myself included) that will not hesitate to ease you of your pain and take the burden and anxiety of knife ownership from you if you are having too many sleepless nights.

If you prefer things more reassuring and stable might I suggest stock?

The existence of a bad economy is real, not a "negative attitude". Actually, IMO, folks that believe this is short-lived are showing a negative attitude because misjudging the ramifications of an economy in this situation will lead to bad decisions regarding its repair.

I've always enjoyed the argument people fall back on when things start looking bad by saying "doomsdayers have always been saying for years this or that and they were wrong" as though that erases the validity of what's currently taking place.

My daughter tells me that I've been lecturing her for years not to stay out late driving around with friends because there are a lot of drunks out. She reminds me how nothing has happened to her and I'm over-reacting. Well, her friend was killed a few nights ago.

My point is there are always doomsdayers and there are always the overly optimistic in every situation. Each situation is independent of every other situation, past or present and relying on the position contrary to another for the sake of remaining optimistic is foolish, IMO.

Joss-The disparity of wealth in the US(the gap between the rich and the poor which is a gigantic problem) and deficit alone are enough to prevent an economic recovery in three years, IMO.

I may be wrong, but this is how I see it and its not born from a negative attitude. I make a lot of money and my company just bought me a new house. I'm sitting pretty. A lot of people, most people, are not so lucky and will be hurting for a long time, IMO.

 

[Les Robertson]

Hi Bruce,

Excellent Post.


Peter,

First, it is the people of a country that make it great...not the government.

Second, if you don't like the government...stop putting the same people back in office. We get the government we deserve.

Third, the majority of wealthy people in this country are not "Lucky". They got that way through long hours and hard work...usually they started as small business owners.

Fourth, if you are unhappy with your current lifestyle, salary or net worth. Then get off your ass and do something about it. If you are not willing to sacrifice your time, energy and intellect for a better future...then you get what you deserve.

And now back to the knife thread......

 

[braillediver]

“how did the stock market end up from Monday's open until Friday's close.”

The Dow ended the week down 34 points.

Also of interest is: “Friday was a quarterly "quadruple witching" day, which marks the simultaneous expiration of options contracts, an event that often adds to volatility and heavy volume.”

In summation: “The Dow is up 40 in the past month, up 18% in the past 5 years and up 44% in the past 10 years.”


Thank you TennKnifeman for an insightful and thought provoking post.

It’s interesting the contrast between your knowledge and RWSs’ feelings. You list experience, historical reference points and actual facts.


Mitch

 

[Don Hanson III]

Dang, that was a long read, Bruce! But very well said

We live near a small rural town, just farmers, working people and one really good custom knife person. Went out to dinner last night, our favorite restaurant was full, more so than I can remember and so was our second choice. Only three or four places to chose from. There was also a lot of traffic in town, probably due to the high school ball game. We just did the fast food thing (it was a bit crowded also) and went home to our peace and quiet

The only economic problems I see, are on TV and I can change the channel. But others may have a different experience.

 

[betzner]

Just my opinion here, but I think Bruce Voyles' comments are the best answers to the question initially posed by this thread. Seems to me that the custom knife market will act alot like the gun market. I kind of equate the Morans with the factory engraved Colt SAA's. There will always be a demand. Someone will always want to buy them. And over the long haul they will always be a great investment. And right now I certainly would rather have my money in the likes of Morans and Warenskis than in the knife world's latest flash-in-the-pan.

As consumer spending declines, there is bound to be some effect on the secondary knife market, but like Forrest Gump says, "__it happens". It will be what it will be - and in the meantime, I will be happy to buy all the Warenskis I can get my hands of if the price is right.

 

[Joss]

Great post Bruce. I very largely agree.

One thing that I didn't notice mentioned was public confidence. Our economic condition is largely driven by public sentiment...

No, that is not the case, except in some very short term horizons.

the current administrations policies and appointments set a course to have a country comprised of the VERY rich and various levels of the poor. A blatent plutocracy! The "middle class" is being decimated and left to pay the bills for all the bailouts of the greedy!

Let's drop the politics from this thread.

Joss-The disparity of wealth in the US (the gap between the rich and the poor which is a gigantic problem) and deficit alone are enough to prevent an economic recovery in three years, IMO.

Actually, I consider income inequality a sign of good economic health. It means that the really productive individuals are handsomely compensated, which keeps them motivated.

 

[TennKnifeman]

Overall I think it is horrible mistake in certain areas to think for a moment that the knife business is a rubber stamp that mirrors the overall economic and political turmoil. (And for the most part there has ALWAYS been political and economical turmoil).

Ken Warner once told me that knives were different, especially handmade knives, because they had beauty, function, were a hand-crafted product, an art angle, were collectible. I expanded on that to include that a knife as a multi-purpose tool utilized in defense of life, God, and Country has the inherent adventure of that in it as well. Gil Hibben coined the phrase in an old catalog, "Adventure in your hand." How do you put a price on that? And if your only criteria of knife ownership is value, then you are in the wrong game.

Want it safe? Buy t-bills. Put your cash in a government insured CD. Start attending t-bill shows, and every time you buy a t-bill post a photo of it on the t-bill forum. See how interesting that is.

Knives and our American fascination with them holds a heritage that goes back to mountain men carrying their Russell Green River knives to the frontier, to a time when "up to Green River" was considered the highest mark of quality--and commitment to the hilt where the Green River was sometimes marked. It goes back to a time when brave men with single shot flintlocks stood on adobe parapets and once that single shot was fired went to their belts for a knife, usually a handmade knife, that would even preserve life or perhaps put eternity off just a few moments longer. Jim Bowie at the Alamo was one of those who likely did just that. Knives after the industrial revolution were one of the primary products of the American hardware industry (note all the Hardware companies would usually say "cutlery and hardware" on their letterheads--and these companies were predecessors of modern companies like Ace and Tru-Value hardware chains).

Knives are different than other businesses, not just for the reasons mentioned. There are plenty of companies made the folly of trying to apply their business reasoning to knives. Remington and Winchester both tried converting their arms factories following WWI to knife production because they "knew how to handle forged metal." Both had failed as manufacturers by WWII. Smith & Wesson tried it under two different manufacturing operations in the 70's until they gave up and licensed the operation. Colt the same. Coleman tired it with Western because they understood, they said, sports marketing. I once asked the new President of Case what his background was in cutlery. His predecessor had sold spring door hinges when I asked him. This guy said he had sold Prince tennis rackets. Neither lasted more than 2 years at the helm and the results at the time you can probably expect.

My biggest complaint with Schrade over the years is their marketing people stopped selling "knives" and started selling "skus" and "product". When you do that you have forgotten the most important aspect of knives.
When you apply business generalities to a unique niche field like knives--in particular knives--history will not back it up. Those companies previously mentioned were smart men, successful managers--but they did not understand the nuances of the knife business.

Handmade knives, and handmade buying and selling, and handmade knife values defy pigeonholing into affixing the label that so goes the economy so goes the knife business. It sounds good in theory. In 36 years in knives, and in historical research on knives that has resulted in over a dozen books and the knife entry to the World Book Encyclopedia I say that thinking knives will behave like general business is TOTALLY incorrect.

R. L. Wilson, author and a well known high end gun broker, once remarked to me, "Wealthy people will always want nice things." That end of the knife market is intact. On the other end if a collector loses his job, his knives hit the market. Often an influx of knives into the market can stimulate rather than retard knife interest. Drop 100 Herrons or Loveless knives on the market and there will be some guys who have wanted to collect those and had trouble buying enough knives to make it interesting for them--and suddenly they can start buying them. It creates momentum.

In changing economic times the ownership of quantities of knives may change--but that does not mean the decline of the knife industry. Others will come in as they see the opportunity based on value.

To think that everything always goes up every day and will not fluctuate--well I guess you're back to collecting t-bills. Sounds boring doesn't it?

 

[Marcel54]

A bit off topic but what the heck.

The story of the Dutch tulip boom is one of the best known collectible bubbles to bursts, even if it was in the 1600's.

For those interested in a history lesson read: "Tulipmania. Money, Honor and Knowledge in the Dutch Golden Age" by the English historian Anne Goldgar. In my opinion the best book on the subject.

As our favorite house shrink (Dr. Phil) have stated many times over: "the best predictor of future behavior is past behavior".

Oh yes, I started my company in October 2001, everybody declared me crazy but I haven't looked back since:thumbup:

Marcel

 

[Keith Montgomery]

ya know what Keith, those who stay interested will always come out ahead.
If you love it, as you clearly do, it will always be there for you, most especially when times are harder. I'm sure there's lots of knife guys here who've gone through hard times, and have depended on one another for strength in community.
In the end, that's what matters the most and as many have pointed out, change is the only thing you can rely on. Pendulum has its swing eh?

My comment was tongue in cheek. For as long as I am alive, I'm sure that there will be plenty of knives that will go great in my collection. It's just that reading this thread, one would come away with the distinct impression that the custom knife industry was not in good health, and that the future does not bode well. Time will tell, I guess, but I personally don't think the sky is falling.

 

[cockroachfarm]

"...We get the government we deserve......."

A few years ago, a member of this forum had this as his sig line:

"No matter who you vote for, 'the government' gets in."

That's as political as I get and I will consider my hand slapped for bringing politics back into this very educational thread

 

[A. G. Russell]

Overall I think it is horrible mistake in certain areas to think for a moment that the knife business is a rubber stamp that mirrors the overall economic and political turmoil. (And for the most part there has ALWAYS been political and economical turmoil).

Ken Warner once told me that knives were different, especially handmade knives, because they had beauty, function, were a hand-crafted product, an art angle, were collectible. I expanded on that to include that a knife as a multi-purpose tool utilized in defense of life, God, and Country has the inherent adventure of that in it as well. Gil Hibben coined the phrase in an old catalog, "Adventure in your hand." How do you put a price on that? And if your only criteria of knife ownership is value, then you are in the wrong game.

Want it safe? Buy t-bills. Put your cash in a government insured CD. Start attending t-bill shows, and every time you buy a t-bill post a photo of it on the t-bill forum. See how interesting that is.

Knives and our American fascination with them holds a heritage that goes back to mountain men carrying their Russell Green River knives to the frontier, to a time when "up to Green River" was considered the highest mark of quality--and commitment to the hilt where the Green River was sometimes marked. It goes back to a time when brave men with single shot flintlocks stood on adobe parapets and once that single shot was fired went to their belts for a knife, usually a handmade knife, that would even preserve life or perhaps put eternity off just a few moments longer. Jim Bowie at the Alamo was one of those who likely did just that. Knives after the industrial revolution were one of the primary products of the American hardware industry (note all the Hardware companies would usually say "cutlery and hardware" on their letterheads--and these companies were predecessors of modern companies like Ace and Tru-Value hardware chains).

Knives are different than other businesses, not just for the reasons mentioned. There are plenty of companies made the folly of trying to apply their business reasoning to knives. Remington and Winchester both tried converting their arms factories following WWI to knife production because they "knew how to handle forged metal." Both had failed as manufacturers by WWII. Smith & Wesson tried it under two different manufacturing operations in the 70's until they gave up and licensed the operation. Colt the same. Coleman tired it with Western because they understood, they said, sports marketing. I once asked the new President of Case what his background was in cutlery. His predecessor had sold spring door hinges when I asked him. This guy said he had sold Prince tennis rackets. Neither lasted more than 2 years at the helm and the results at the time you can probably expect.

My biggest complaint with Schrade over the years is their marketing people stopped selling "knives" and started selling "skus" and "product". When you do that you have forgotten the most important aspect of knives.
When you apply business generalities to a unique niche field like knives--in particular knives--history will not back it up. Those companies previously mentioned were smart men, successful managers--but they did not understand the nuances of the knife business.

Handmade knives, and handmade buying and selling, and handmade knife values defy pigeonholing into affixing the label that so goes the economy so goes the knife business. It sounds good in theory. In 36 years in knives, and in historical research on knives that has resulted in over a dozen books and the knife entry to the World Book Encyclopedia I say that thinking knives will behave like general business is TOTALLY incorrect.

R. L. Wilson, author and a well known high end gun broker, once remarked to me, "Wealthy people will always want nice things." That end of the knife market is intact. On the other end if a collector loses his job, his knives hit the market. Often an influx of knives into the market can stimulate rather than retard knife interest. Drop 100 Herrons or Loveless knives on the market and there will be some guys who have wanted to collect those and had trouble buying enough knives to make it interesting for them--and suddenly they can start buying them. It creates momentum.

In changing economic times the ownership of quantities of knives may change--but that does not mean the decline of the knife industry. Others will come in as they see the opportunity based on value.

To think that everything always goes up every day and will not fluctuate--well I guess you're back to collecting t-bills. Sounds boring doesn't it?

Very well stated Bruce. Some of those who run knife companies can learn, Tom Arrowsmith for one. I wish they all could and would.

 

[A. G. Russell]

Hi Bruce,

Excellent Post.


Peter,

First, it is the people of a country that make it great...not the government.

Second, if you don't like the government...stop putting the same people back in office. We get the government we deserve.

Third, the majority of wealthy people in this country are not "Lucky". They got that way through long hours and hard work...usually they started as small business owners.

Fourth, if you are unhappy with your current lifestyle, salary or net worth. Then get off your ass and do something about it. If you are not willing to sacrifice your time, energy and intellect for a better future...then you get what you deserve.

And now back to the knife thread......

Harsh Les, but absolutely true, probably the best post you ever made.

 

[A. G. Russell]

I regret tht I must say that talking about the Tulip mania has nothing to do with collecting, it was driven entirely by GREED, if you want to compare it with something them talk about the .com bubble, getting rich not collecting.

 

[Tai Goo]

Hey Don!

Mrs. Bigglesworth thinks so too!

 

[Tai Goo]

Please do not start a political rant (in either direction) on this thread. I've enjoyed this thread so far--but political opinions need to go somewhere else.

Right on!

Have you ever heard such a bunch of brown nosers and whiners in all your life?

 

[RWS]

Hey Don!

Mrs. Bigglesworth thinks so too!

Tai Goo, you're twisted!
...in a good way.

 

[Tai Goo]

... Is it O.K... if we call Les,... "#2."?

 

[betzner]

Here are some comments about the recent AG Russell show in Rogers Arkansas from Ray Rybar, the AKCA Vice President, copied from the most recent AKCA newsletter. These comments more than likely relate more to maker sales than aftermarket sales, but are probably a very worthwhile read, while also taking into account it was a first show.

The AG Russell show was very pleasant
> and done in a top shelf manner. Sales,
> however, for myself and all others I talked to
> were off significantly. To be specific low end
> blades ($1,000.00 and under) did change
> hands. A few Midrange blades ($1,000.00 to
> $1,900.00) sold. Higher end blades ($2,000.00
> to $5,000.00) did not sell. At least not in the
> circles of conversation I was in. Interestingly,
> there were spotters on the floor. Some were
> for European buyers.

 

[TJL]

Hi Lorien,

If the market is in the toilet why were there 30 + dealers with tables at the Chicago show (according to Don Hanson)?

The show was likely full due to the fact that there are fewer knife shows these days. There are fewer shows due to the fact that the knife market is indeed soft. For example, the Solvang show is only once every two years now. Virtually all retail is soft, and it is not going to get better any time soon. My strategy in this unstable market is to buy high quality knives from new makers who have not hit the big time yet. Their time will come, and when it does, I will be sitting pretty. I have been snapping up new blades from Pohan Leu for prices that are ridiculously low. Until his name gains momentum, it is a great opportunity to get in on the bottom floor. There are many great makers out there at the moment who are relatively unknown, so you are sure to find someone who makes something you like.