Aftermarket in the Toilet?

TJL said:
The show was likely full due to the fact that there are fewer knife shows these days. There are fewer shows due to the fact that the knife market is indeed soft. For example, the Solvang show is only once every two years now. Virtually all retail is soft, and it is not going to get better any time soon. My strategy in this unstable market is to buy high quality knives from new makers who have not hit the big time yet. Their time will come, and when it does, I will be sitting pretty. I have been snapping up new blades from Pohan Leu for prices that are ridiculously low. Until his name gains momentum, it is a great opportunity to get in on the bottom floor. There are many great makers out there at the moment who are relatively unknown, so you are sure to find someone who makes something you like.
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Fewer knife shows :confused:
 
Hi TJL,

You need to check the show roster around the country.

August had

The Central Texas Knife Collectors Association Show

AG Russell's Show in Arkansas

PKA show in Denver

In September,

Two weeks ago Chicago

Last weekend Oklahoma Custom Knife Show.

This weekend Spirit of Steel Show and Blade Show West.

That is 4 shows in 3 weekends.

October will feature the Plaza Cutlery Show, as well in October

The Florida Knifemakers Association Show

The 10th Annual Washington State Knife Show

Bay Area Knife Collector Association Show (BAKCA) in Santa Clara CA

November will feature the New York Custom Knife show.

December will Feature the Chesapeake Knife Show in Maryland.

Lets look ahead to next year in this time frame.

2009

Last week in July...AG Russell's show

August:

The Central Texas Knife Collectors Association Show

PKA show in Denver

ABS Show in San Antonio Texas

September:

Chicago Show

Oklahoma Show

Guild Show in Louisville KY

Spirit of Steel Show Dallas TX

Blade Show West

October will feature the AKI Show as well as the others previously mentioned except for the Plaza Cutlery Show.

ETC.

Oh BTW, Yes Solvang is going to every other year. However, the other year that Solvang is not. Steve D'Lack will be doing another show that year in CA.

Basing your investment strategy on "so few shows" is probably not the best one.

The amount of dealers at the Chicago Show had nothing to do with not enough shows or a soft knife market. It had to do with the makers and buyers in attendance. Because of the Show, the Tactical Invitational and the 100 custom knife auction.

It's great that you want to promote Pohan Leu. But you may want to review the reasons why you think your strategy will work.

If anything there are too many shows.

Don't forget the biggest show of all...24/7/365...called the Internet!

I agree with you that there are a lot of talented makes out there who are not very well known.
 
There is a lot of shows and a lot of knives. Just don't know if there is that much $$$
around. I am going to the Plaza show next weekend and see how things are going.
Any of you going to be there?
 
yes it has been Les and I was thinking you were referring to 2008 and just re read your post and noticed you are pointing out next years shows. 2008 was busy for shows and more have taken place in the past couple weeks with a few more in to works. There certainly are not fewer shows by any means and more are in the works to be added. Anyone wanting to get to a show and doesn't is not really trying lol. And as you said, the biggest show of all is the internet and that includes forums with knives for sale, Dealers, and knifemakers websites. In the Members section of CKCA www.customknifecollectorsassociation.com for the US alone there are over 600 links to websites and over 100 more will soon be added.
 
Speaking for myself, I have passed of many knives this year that three years ago I would have pulled the trigger on. When I go to the makers site to look at the custom fixed and folders for sale or to the Exchange where members are selling production and custom preowned knives I consistently think that, considering the current economic situation, these prices need to come down. Or at the least I am WAITING until they do before I buy.
 
I believe that economic uncertainties in, and of, themselves will cause people to pause before they buy, regardless or whether or not they have the same amount of income.

How do the rest of you feel? Is the aftermarket a good barometer for the industry in general?
 
naccibobacci said:
Speaking for myself, I have passed of many knives this year that three years ago I would have pulled the trigger on. When I go to the makers site to look at the custom fixed and folders for sale or to the Exchange where members are selling production and custom preowned knives I consistently think that, considering the current economic situation, these prices need to come down. Or at the least I am WAITING until they do before I buy.
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I think precipitous price drops by makers (or dealers significantly undercutting the makers' prices) in response to "the current economic situation" would be a really, really bad idea.

Roger
 
Often high quality collectibles such as classic cars and fine art will actually rise in value during sharp downturns in the stock market as investors seek more tangible investments for riding out the financial storm.
 
come on Severed you already knew that. LOL

Then again furniture stores stay open for years "Going out of Business". LOL

Kevin you and Lorien are confusing the readers. Ok, maybe it's just me!

Kevin, First 2008 is a great year for custom knives.

Then Lorien starts this thread Custom Knives are in the toilet because of a bad economy!!!

Now you're saying that because the economy is so bad that some people may look to custom knives as a place to "park their money" till times get better???

Then again perhaps it may be that makers who charge a fair price, offer a good/great value, listen to their customers and at least have some business sense will do fine.

I wish you guys would make up your mind...I was just working on my resume...

:D
 
the aftermarket, Les! Not the entirety of the custom knife industry:)

The prompt for this thread came over the course of following the classifieds in here, and seeing that semi custom/short run production knives were taking a nose dive in the aftermarket. Primarily Chris Reeve, William Henry and Busse Combat. Seeing the change here is easy due to these companies having 'suggested retail' pricing. Could be there was an 'aftermarket bubble'?

Because I don't yet know that much about custom knife pricing and couldn't really gauge whether those prices were dropping or not, I asked the ill advised question that I asked, hoping it would illuminate what's going on in this dark little corner:cool:.

The general consensus in this thread seems to be that the aftermarket is 'softening', so maybe 'down the toilet' is a little harsh. What I'm curious to know, is what can be gleaned about the entirety of the market, from studying growth and shrinkage of the secondary market.
:thumbup:Does that make any more sense?
 
Primarily Chris Reeve, William Henry and Busse Combat.
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I don't think you can judge the entire after market by a few production companies.
The secondary custom market is going to be an interesting one to watch for the next year or so. I would think the state of the economy would effect it somewhat.

Judging from a custom car show I was at this past weekend , there were more custom & restored muscle cars for sale than there has been in the past few years combined.

I think precipitous price drops by makers (or dealers significantly undercutting the makers' prices) in response to "the current economic situation" would be a really, really bad idea.
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Bad idea for the aftermarket , but not so bad for the maker who has to eat and pay bills. Perhaps there will be more makers making user grade knives ? ( just a guess...ok maybe wishful thinking ).
 
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