Corona thread. No politics please

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Lorien said:
Canada's modelling shows between 11K and 22K dead from the virus (til when I dunno research if curious) if we act exactly as we should. Don't have much confidence that enough of us can do what needs done without the proof right up in our face, by which time it's too late to do anything except let the wave wash over you and hope for the best
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If my Facebook feed is any indication, there are people in Ontario who literally don't seem to understand what's going on. There's about 5-10% of people in my Facebook groups who are constantly trying to find loopholes to go out, travel between cities, participate in higher risk activities, etc. Some groups are better than others where members will actively tell people to stay put but there are other groups where no one mentions the pandemic and everyone turns a blind eye at people going out. Then there are those who are still down playing this whole thing by comparing it to existing diseases/issues.

The best we can do is keep reminding prior to isolate as much as possible.
 
fatfrog said:
If my Facebook feed is any indication, there are people in Ontario who literally don't seem to understand what's going on. There's about 5-10% of people in my Facebook groups who are constantly trying to find loopholes to go out, travel between cities, participate in higher risk activities, etc. Some groups are better than others where members will actively tell people to stay put but there are other groups where no one mentions the pandemic and everyone turns a blind eye at people going out. Then there are those who are still down playing this whole thing by comparing it to existing diseases/issues.

The best we can do is keep reminding prior to isolate as much as possible.
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The abject stupidity of some, has been an... interesting, aggravating and saddening thing to watch.

- the folks on social media who said, "Black people can't get this". (Yes, I had 2 people say this to me personally, in the middle of March, because of the stupid BS they'd seen on social media)

- the people who kept touting (and continue to?), "it's just the flu", or "the flu's killed way more people". (Yes, I understand that it REALLY doesn't help when the talking heads were (are?) saying that on TV/radio, but let's please continue to leave the politics out of this).

- the idiots who keep moving the goalposts:
"The flu's killed more people in the US, this year alone". Yeah? How about now, you math illiterate, exponential spread uncomprehending genius? The flu season 'year' began in the Fall of 2019. This bug's already hit those numbers in just 2 months with a fraction of the infected.

- "Heart disease/accidents kill way more people, but we don't shut the whole economy down for those". o_O Riiiiight... and does each accident or person with heart disease cause 3-6 more accidents/other people to get heart disease? Is heart disease contagious? Are accidents contagious?

- "Meh, let me know when this thing kills more people per day than heart disease". Ok, we hit that figure a few days ago, and the deaths per day are still increasing, and again, deaths due to heart disease aren't contagious.

- "This is retarded. We're destroying the economy. We need to open everything back up. This thing is way overblown". Really? Not a 'big picture' type, are you? When the healthcare system gets overwhelmed, we start seeing the cascading failures, more HCWs getting sick and adding to understaffed facilities, deaths skyrocketing not just from Covid-19 patients not being able to get the treatment that could've kept them alive, but deaths from non-Covid-19 causes from heart attacks and strokes, PE and DVT, accidents, appendicitis and all other medical issues also climbing when those patients can't get the medical attention in time because the system is overwhelmed.

Crime rates climbing because the police force is being cut down as they fall sick, the fire departments being cut down as they fall sick, and the general populace either sick, or staying home out of fear because millions are sick and tens of thousands are dying? What do you think happens to the economy then, genius?

Stay home. Stay safe. Help keep the spread down.

Yes, there's a good chance this will be with us for some time. If we can slow the spread, hopefully we can either develop effective treatments or an effective vaccine, while keeping the numbers below where the healthcare system gets overwhelmed.

Medical facilities in the hotspots are already at this point, but at least it's not nationwide.

The IHME model (the one that has led them to revise the total US deaths down to ~60,000) is BS, predicated on stupid assumptions, using poor data. GIGO.

According to the IHME model, MI's peak deaths per day, was predicted to be yesterday 4/9, at 122 deaths/per day. Yeah, right. The East side of the state is getting hammered. Friends working in the facilities there are reporting terrible conditions (a lot of HCWs there, catching this). Cutting holes in garbage bags to use as medical gowns because of the lack of PPE.

On the West side of the state, things are just starting to get hot. Some areas are where Detroit was less than 3 weeks ago. That's what happens with exponential growth, it seems like a long time ago, and then you realize, "Nope. It wasn't that long ago at all". Yesterday, MI had more Covid-19 deaths in a single day, than the entire US one month ago.
 
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Casinostocks said:
I was thinking something wicked:

Imagine if there's a fast track to a reliable vaccine but it would initially require multiple beestings to determine your level of ΩΛ antibodies TRfromMT TRfromMT

:D :D :D :p
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Hahahah... u suck.


I'd be as good as dead anyway, and certainly would be an emotional basket case, so I wouldn't bother. Takin my chances with the 'rona if it comes to that.
 
TRfromMT said:
Hahahah... u suck.


I'd be as good as dead anyway, and certainly would be an emotional basket case, so I wouldn't bother. Takin my chances with the 'rona if it comes to that.
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P.S. There is no such thing as ΩΛ antibodies, unless you read the books which I had previously authored on medicine, treatments and prophylactics!
 
been keeping busy. Man, the body needs to toughen up. Just got word the worksite for my trail job is open to me so looks like I'll have lots of work on my hands
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Casinostocks said:
I’d like to hear from donscpoo donscpoo regarding the current Covid-19 status in Singapore. I have not read this yet but I just heard on the news that Singapore is now experiencing its third wave of this virus! Don if you are still visiting is in here and notice this post, please chime in as to how these ebbing & flowing waves are hitting and affecting your nation?
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Yeah, we are hit with a new wave of infection bringing the total to over 2100 now. This wave involved mostly foreign workers in the construction industries. We have over 50k of them here to help us construct buildings and infrastructure related projects. The living conditions in their dormitory made it easy for the virus to spread fairly quickly. The government introduced further tightening on people movement to contain the spread and opened military camps for these foreign workers to stay. Unfortunately, there are still people out there that still ignoring the advices from the government.

This round of tightening include closure of schools and biz providing non essential services. This is a hard balancing art. Closing too many biz to reduce human movement will have impact on the economy and job. Closing too little biz, the virus might not not be contained. Honestly, I don’t want the job of the government. New wave of government help in the billions of dollars are provided with this round of tightening to help the citizens and biz. This is something I have never seen before.

I seriously hope everyone can cooperate with the government and stay at home. With every escalation, more billions will have to be spent to contain the virus. The sooner we end this, the less tax payer money we have to spend. I trust this is the same in the world.

I saw that NY seems to be under control now. Take care everyone and continue to stay safe at home.

Don
 
Lorien said:
this article stimulated some thoughts
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Yes, all of that is true. NY is already not reporting DOA calls as Covid-19, if the patient at home wasn't tested prior. Lots of 'respiratory distress' calls.

The other thing that some people STILL apparently haven't caught on to, is that the past 3-4 weekends have all shown that reporting severely lags on the weekends. Between the reporting lag, and test times, Sunday and Monday numbers have been lower every single weekend for the previous 3 weekends, and people go, "Hey, the numbers are going down", then Tuesday and Wednesday numbers spike back up to fit the curves.

P.S.
I should clarify, the curve IS flattening, showing that the mitigation measures are working.

The curves for the daily death toll is also reducing in some areas, potentially showing that the Hydroxychloroquine therapies may be working there, but that seems to be varied based on how the Hydroxychloroquine is used. Due to scarcity, some facilities are only using it on the patients in most dire need. The outcomes aren't very good for patients whose bodies are already severely ravaged by Covid-19.

The fatality rate for ICU patients on ventilators is still very high. Once a patient reaches the point where they need to be intubated, they're literally at death's door. Only the young and strong, generally can fight back from the precipice.

OTOH, the facilities who've begun prescribing the Hydroxychloroquine cocktail upon admission (when the patients are put on 02, but aren't severe enough to require intubation) are showing positive results.

Just 2-3 weeks ago, both confirmed case numbers, and daily deaths were doubling every 3-4 days. That's slowed significantly now, which is a good thing, but as Dr. Fauci has mentioned, relaxing the mitigation at this time will result in subsequent flare ups.
 
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If you study past pandemics, an X / Y graph with X being the vertical axis representing the number of reported deaths on Y being the period of time when the pandemic becomes an endemic, the curve is always a bell-shaped curve and the gradient hyperbolic. Obviously modern scientists have learned from those past experiences, even the very old ones like the Black Death pandemic of the late 1300s when reliable data has become available, when those scientists recommend their mitigation and suppression technics to counter and combat contemporary pandemics.

Flattening the curve can still manifest in almost the same number of deaths during the pandemic because it is the surface area under that curve which counts specially if lowering the X results in stretching the Y axis. Common sense and past history ought to be sobering thoughts for those who think that in the absence of a proven cure, vaccine and bona fide therapeutics, this virus is just going to go away on its own as if it responds to sheer will power!

I am very glad that I am not in politics or a political because I really see no other solution other than a big, strong and dominant federal government to delicately sew through both public health and also the economy since these two are clearly intertwined. The idea of big government has always been against the American grain and DNA. As the old Chinese proverb goes, "may you live in interesting times" which is actually a Chinese curse and with that, it is very ironic that China itself has been the source of many pandemics, past and present!
 
Casinostocks said:
As the old Chinese proverb goes, "may you live in interesting times" which is actually a Chinese curse and with that, it is very ironic that China itself has been the source of many pandemics, past and present!
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They seriously need to stop eating weird shit like bats
 
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