Hi Phil,
One of the main disadvantages I see with Bladeforums is that people belive this represents what is truly going on in the knife world.
Point of fact, it only represents what the members of Bladeforums think. To this end, it is very limited. As there are maybe 100 custom knife buyers on this forum.
If you look at the posts, it's generally the same 50 people. If you go over to the forsale forum, it's the same 50-75 sellers.
This does not mean that there is not some accuracy in how they view the market and its current condition.
As somone who watches the current market on a daily basis. I can tell you it is a free for all out there. A few years back it was much easier to track what was hot, what was not.
I think one thing the Internet forums have done is give collectors exposure to new makers, materials, styles, etc. Consequently, there are many makers who benefit from this.
I have noticed a couple of trends:
1) Collectors are spending more money per knife. This would seem odd on the surface. It appears what has happened is the collectors have less disposable income now. I don't think their salary has decreased as much as they are now focusing on reducing debt.
Having seen some of the more "common" custom knives take a beating in the aftermarket. Many have learned the lesson that it can be better long term to buy a $500 knife than it is to buy 2 $250 knives.
2) Collectors are focusing on proven winners. While at the East Coast Custom Knife Show this past March. My buddy Bob Neal was selling $1,500 - $2,500 knives like they were $500 knives.
Of course Bob carries the good stuff, so there are a lot of collectors looking for him at the New York shows. The knives he was selling were: Jess Horn, Michael Walker, Jack Busfield and Tony Bose. The Busfield and Bose knives were multi-blades.
While Bob has an excellent selection of folders. He was selling the higher end knives. The same was true for many of the other dealers and a lot of the makers at that show. If the economy is so bad, these knives should not have been selling like they were.
3) Makers who are keeping their names out there with an Internet presence, advertising and show attendance. Are generally doing better than those who are not. With so much competition out there among the knife makers, name recognition is more important now than ever before.
Just think of the Blade Show and it's 400 tables of custom knives or the Guild SHow and it's 350 tables of custom knvies. How many of those makers do you know? How many of those makers have you even heard of? There is some fantastic work out there from makers you never heard of.
However, for the maker to move past being the best maker you never heard of. To improving their position in a particular market. They have to get their name and work out there. They can do it without a web site...it will just take a few more years.
4) Attrition. The market giveth and the market taketh away. There are some well known as well as some entry level makers that are feelig the heat right now. Just as there are some dealers feeling the heat right now.
Matter of fact, with regards to knife dealers in the near future information will come to light that will stun some in the custom knife community. Im sure it wil be a subject of conversation for many at the Blade Show.
The econonmy is always bad for some one. Sometimes this is a real reason for business slowing down. Other times it is just an excuse.
Versatility is one of the keys for success. No matter what the business you have to be able to deliver what the customers want.
Not2Sharp,
I was confused by your comments. Why would people talk about factory knives

in the custom forum? Maybe that kept some people away.