Lack Of Interest?

I'm not a knowledgeable person in these areas -- put I'll throw in my two cents anyway.

I've recently just found the Custom Forum, and read it quite a bit now. I usually don't have any input, but I enjoy reading it anyway.

I believe like most of what Melvin said about the upcoming show, and other things are slowing down the forums. It seems that the blademaking forums have slowed down too.

One sad aspect I've seen with forums is that they're very cyclic in nature. I am an administrator of some forums for a very large outdoor retailer, and it seems like there is a huge influx of people that come in, they ask a lot of questions, then they start to dissapate when the questions get repeating. Then a new group shows up, and the same questions are asked all over again. It's just a revolving group of people that ask the same questions over and over.

Hopefully this is not the case here -- I hope Melvin is right. I've gleaned a lot of info out of this section since I started "lurking" in it.

Just my uninformed two cents.
:D
 
well trace u said "Hell there are teenagers buying Custom knives !! When I was a teen I couldnt buy a custom ANYTHING.
Im HOPING this whole kids with knives thing dont bite us in the ass though:-)
I can see it now..."

I'm still a teen (now a soph in college) and have been collecting knives since i was 12 and got my first custom over a year ago and have purchased 4 more since then and have started to learn more of what i'm looking for. I love bladeforums and have been lurking here for like 3 years, don't most a whole lot but like to read and learn. custom knives really interest me and so I try to spend as much time as i can looking at new makers and trying to keep abrest of everything so thanks for everything that has been said. keep sharing the knowledge:)

thanks
trevor
 
Originally posted by Burchtree
One sad aspect I've seen with forums is that they're very cyclic in nature. I am an administrator of some forums for a very large outdoor retailer, and it seems like there is a huge influx of people that come in, they ask a lot of questions, then they start to dissapate when the questions get repeating. Then a new group shows up, and the same questions are asked all over again. It's just a revolving group of people that ask the same questions over and over.

Hopefully this is not the case here --
:D
Click to expand...

I agree completely.
I also believe that some members and makers did leave for other forums but to suggest that those makers or members are camp followers or only seeking the "knife de jour" is utterly ridiculous.
I personally spend more time on another forum because that forum seems to cater more to those interested in custom knives.
Very interesting thread.

Phillip :)
 
I am really enjoying this thread, in much the same way I enjoy reading (lurking) here every day. I always learn something new. I haven't really posted much lately, with computer problems plus no new custom knives, I just sat back and read. I never lost interest in custom knives, the makers or the buyers here. I had a lot of time to do my homework, to decide what I really wanted to buy next. I know the makers of my next four knives, they're friends of mine. I know them mainly because of BladeFourms, Chat and going to shows.

Les, I can't tell you how much I've learned from you; from your posts, talking to you at shows, from your book and just visiting your website is an education as to what's happening in the custom knife business.
 
Hi Michael,

I consider myself a fairly knowledgeable person when it comes to custom knives. I will tell you I ask makers questions that they have heard 100 times before.

Ive been into custom knives for 20 years. There is so much more for me to learn about them.

Ive set up at more shows than I can remember, I have done seminars for both collectors and makers. I have been interviewed for more articles than I can remember, Ive had numerous articles written about my LDC and Vanguard knives. As Phil has alluded to, I have even written a book.

All this and I still get asked the same questions over and over again. My response...answer the questions.

It is a big step for someone to spend $400 or more on a knife. The last thing we want to do is chastise someone for asking a question that has been asked before. Except for that "What does BTTT mean". Those people should be beaten :D

For many people this is the first place they stop. They ask a few questions and the leave. Some never to return, others return when they have more questions.

My experience has shown me, the more questions you ask the more money you will save. In the short term and definetly in the long term.

If I got a dollar for every quetions I answered at a knife show...I wouldn't have to sell knives.

Im sure I asked as many repative questions when I first got into custom knives. Im sure if call boxes existed back when I got into this. Many of my calls would have been ignored.

One of the things I am thanked for over and over again. Is taking the time, whether it is in email, on the phone or at a show. Is taking time to talk with clients and potential clients. As Im told this is not the case with others.

I always laugh when I hear this. How can you be into custom knives and not want to talk about them. Especially dealers, that is part of our service to both the makers we represent and the clients who are interested in their knives.

For many people their education starts here. The more we make them feel wanted the more they are going to want to return.

PhilL,

As always thank you for your kind words.
 
As many, Les included, will attest to...some of us come into this world knowing everything there is to know about everything...and yes, I'm one of those types too... ;)

Fortunately, with people like PhilL and Les around, Keith and a few others too, to help me 'remember' all that I'd forgotten; I've 'rediscovered' Custom/Handmade knives...and my interest now is far from 'peaked'. (Thanks guys, for humoring me through those 'trying' times...lol)

The thing of it is, when I stroll through Les's killer website and the like, I seem to 'remember' a little more each time... ;)

Thanks, for taking the time to help me remember all that I'd forgotten, and for helping to remind me that Custom/Handmade knives are a real hoot!

Mel
 
I learn a great deal from those that have different interests in custom knives from my own. That is why I would like to see as many different people taking part on this forum as possible. My knowledge is very good in certain areas and not very good in others. The more that I am able to learn from people that are knowledgeable in the areas that I am weak, the better they make me.

Les has taught me a great deal about custom knives. About both the business end and the collecting end. His input has also modified my position on what is a custom knife and what is a handmade knife. As hard as this may be to believe :p , he has even convinced me that CNC and CAD have a place in the world of handmade knives. A few months ago I would have considered this sacrilege. If I haven't let you know this before Les, I really do appreciate all the time you spend sharing your expertise with us. Thank you.

Makers have taught me a huge amount. They have unselfishly taken the time here to share their wisdom, and some of them have taken quite a bit of their valuable time to privately share huge amounts of information with me. It has been makers like these that have made me such a devout supporter of custom knives. I have a feeling that if my first experience with a maker had been bad, I might not be into knives at all today.

Then there are all the other forum members that have taught me much of what I know about knives today. When I think back three years to when I first joined BladeForums I realize that I am far more knowledgeable than I was then.

There are always going to be new people coming in and asking the same old questions. The ones we have seen a hundred times before. We should never make them feel stupid or be unwilling to answer these questions for the hundredth time. We have to understand that these questions are being asked because the person doesn't know the answer. By answering these questions we may just be helping to create another custom knife user/collector/maker, or dealer.

Edited to finish a sentence that I stopped right in the middle of for some reason.
 
Les it was based soley on a feeling I get. It seemed to me that the newer makers a few years ago could charge more $ and rocket into popularity quicker than the new makers can now. Maybe peeked really is the wrong word for it. It seems like everyone and their brother are making custom folders now and maybe the market is just larger so it seems like it is a little slower. Or maybe people are wiser than before, I am still shocked at some of the prices some of the newer makers would get. In no way am I trying to disagree with you about the market of knives. I wish I knew 1/32 of it as well as you do. Good to see my feeling is off a little.
 
I hope I didn't come off wrong in my post. I didn't mean to imply that people should be shunned for asking the same questions. I was just mentioning that it's something that I've seen in the past with a different forum.

I'm glad that you folks will continue to stay in the custom forums, because I'm beginning to get in the position to start buying more customs -- and I'll be the guy that asks all the questions that you've heard before.
 
The Forums aside, I have not been affected by any "lack of interest" in custom knives. At the ECCKS this March, one of the "major" custom knife shows, I sold over 30 knives, which did not include any sales to dealers. Now, I'm not saying this to brag here, but to make the point that the custom knife market is not slumping.
I did put considerable effort into planning which knives to bring, and, how many of each. Fortunately, my plan played out as I hoped, and, I took only a few knives home. Had I not "guessed" correctly, my results might have been different.
What surprised me about this show compared to past shows is that overall I still managed to sell more knives directly to customers. In other years perhaps 30% of my sales were to dealers. This year, I had to fill the dealer orders in the weeks after the show. Obviously, the customer interest in buying knives is still there. The trick is having the right knives at the right price.
As to the forums, I have found that I just don't have as much time to spend on them as I did. I think some other makers are in the same boat. When you see an absence of makers posting here, often it's because we're out in the shop filling orders, BECAUSE of the interest in custom knives.
 
Hi Mel,

You hit the nail on the head. There are a lot of knowledgeable folks on this forum. I think what all of us learn is that the "learning" never ends.

Keith,

Your posts are well thought out and provide more information than I think you realize. You are of course correct, the more makers and dealers can make the purchase very enjoyable...as it should be.

DB,

For some reason people prfere gloom and doom over positive stories. Want proof turn on the news in any town at any hour. The lead story is always about someone dying or being killed, etc.

I have no doubt that you have gotten the "feeling" that things are slow or have peaked in custom knives. I would suggest to you that you are talking to the wrong people.

The next time a maker tells you the economy or whatever is affecting their sales. Ask them what they are going to do to correct that.

For many makers it is not the market that has peaked...it is their career that has.

As for some makers getting the prices they do. I have to say I have never seen a maker hold a gun to a customers head to get them to buy a knife. Fortunately, within 3-5 years most of these makers have been "weeded out" by the market.

The more educated custom knife buyers become. The more the pricing will come in line with what it should be.

Now in fairness to makers, many of them find "pricing" to be one of the most difficult aspects of the business of custom knives.

There is not a single show I attend where I don't have at least one knife maker ask me my opinion on what a knife should sell for.

The makers I work with on a regular basis and I take into many factors before coming up with a price on the Vanguard knives and other new models the makers are going to introduce.

I think pricing on the Vanguard knives have been a big reason as to why each new knife sells out.

So don't let the pricing bother you too much. There are so many great knives out there. That missing out on an overpriced knife is no big deal.

Burch,

Your opinons are welcome. Yes, several of the same questions get asked over and over again. For me, from a business point of view I like to see forumites re-visit old topics. It forces me to re-look sectors of the custom knife market.

Years ago when I got my black belt in Karate. My instructor would have me spar with new white belts. At first I felt foolish doing this. As obviously they would not be much of a challange.

My opinion changed after one long Saturday morning of sparring. It seems these white belts have little or no control over their kicks and puches. They also through unusual combinations and their attacks could come from anywhere.

Point to this is, they made you stay on your toes. You had to give them your attention. Failure to do so could cause you to miss something.

I can remember numerous makers not wanting to give the time of day when I first started as a dealer. Many of those makers are no longer around. Not because they wouldn't do business with me. But because their answers to me were endemic of their attitude towards everyone.

They were not interested in you unless you were going to buy something.

RJ,

I think it's a damn shame you don't take care of your dealers before the show. :D
 
I'm enjoying every word of this dialog, too. This whole format: the Internet and Forums may be only a microcosm of the world of Custom's, but methinks it is the *first* place to keep track of the pulse of this community.

Those collectors who are not online are missing some damn good education AND commeradarie. And those makers who smartly depend on good communication skills to add to the value of their knives, know how important this is also. Everyone wins.

Glad I'm aboard this moving train... :)

Coop
 
This thread about interests and buying trends has left me wondering about some things lately. Several knives from certian makers these days are commanding high premiums on the secondary market. Examples of these makers are Mike Snody, Tom Mayo, Neil Blackwood, Ken Onion and, of course, Ernest Emerson. I've also seen older/rare modles from other popular makers being sold at premiums as well.
My questions are about the future value/prices of these knives. In general, are the knife of popular makers that are selling for high premiums the ones that hold the highest value in the long-term? Or, do the premiums occur because these makers are making so few knives or so few of a particular design in a year that so few of them get on the market and not enough buyers can get them in their hands to know about the popularity or nostalga to make them valuable 10 years down the road. I know this is a complicated issue, but this thread just got me wondering.
These are primarily the hot knives or hot makers others referred to earlier. Are these typically the makers or knives that drop off the face of the earth after hitting a super high point in the career, or are these the makers who's knives are getting even higher premiums after they cease making knives? I know some makers, including one I collect, gain small premiums on the secondary market for specific designs. His older/rare pieces get some pretty high premiums from what I have seen. To me, this is the type of maker who I can see the value of his knives significantly increasing when he ceases making knives. He's not a "hot" maker of the moment, he's just a very talented craftsman who has been doing it well for many years and has a very well established reputation and secondary market. For the long-term collector/investor, is it better to focus on the super hot makers gaining high premiums in hopes of those premiums holding or increasing? Or, is it better to focus on established makers who may gain slight premiums on current pieces and high premiums on older pieces now, as the trend has already shown that his older models/knives are bringing descent premiums to the collector?

I hope I didn't just totally confuse everyone.

JR
 
First, that's a subject I find very interesting, mostly from the maker's perspective. When one sees the price of those knives on the 2nd hand market, one wonders why the makers don't go ahead and start charging it on the primary market.

Second, I am sure that, like any other market, the custom knife market suffers bubbles, and I think that there are a lot of inflated prices here and there - although I am SPECIFICALLY not making such a judgement on Mayo's and Emerson's, if only because I've never seen a "live" one.

Third, I used to think that all those red-hot knives were coming from the latest trend, hot today, gone tomorrow type of makers. Having read annual editions of Knives going back to the late 80's, it's obviousl that those makers are in fact getting the rewards of 10 to 20 years of hard work. (I still think that some of those knives are overpriced objectively, but the makers have spent a lot of time and effort developing their "brand".)
 
Hi JR,

Actually the answer is very simple. The makers you wrote about produce very few knives.

Take Mike Snody for instance, I don't think he has made knife this year. Neil Blackwood produces very few knives every year as well. Also, their pricing is very attractive.

As for Emerson, since he started bringing custom knives to shows his prices have been falling steadily for the past two years. These are of course the Specwar Dated knives.

The Specwar logos command better money and obviously the Emerson logo commands the best money. However, even these knives have seen their value slip from the high of a few years ago.

Why has the price slipped? It's alot easier to get a custom Emerson now.

Mike Snody and I have had this talk. He understands that if and when he goes full time and starts making 300+ knives per year. The premiums being paid now will evaporate. The same would happen to Neil , Tom Mayo, Ken Onion, Steve Ryan, etc. If they were producing 300+ knives a year.

What is driving the market is not supply and demand. It is demand and supply. The demand is high for a particular makers knives. You have a supply of them, you can add a premium. The demand grows, the premium grows. The demand shrinks, the premium shrinks.

As for makers not raising their prices, it is a smart business move not to. Say a maker produces a knife for $500 that sells in the aftermarket for $1,200. The maker sees that and raises their prices to $1,200. Short term he has helped every collector who bought one at $500.

Long term, he has eliminated most entry level buyers. These are the buyers who create the 1-6 year wait. This wait is what drives the aftermarket (demand and supply).

If the knives are now $1,200. Fewer people can buy them. The delivery time is now less than a year. The demand is slowing, consequently the premium is decreasing in the aftermarket. Ultimately, the makers knives who were so very hot cool. To the point that delivery times are counted in weeks not years.

Now both entry level buyers and experienced collectors have no moved on.

My experience has been to look for value for the dollar. This applies to the new knife maker as well as the established makers. Quality is always in demand and always sells.

View your collection in terms of a portfolio. Have your core of established makers. A few "hot" makers and a few "up and coming" makers.

The trick is to "time the market". Buy before everyone knows who the new up and comers are. Sell as they become established and their prices are on the rise and before they top out. For many people this would take the fun out of it. As it is more like work than a hobby.

Currently a 36 month CD is paying around 3%. Your bank is paying maybe 2% in a money market account (that of course is with a balance of $10,000).

If you bought a $400 knife and wanted to make 5% you would have to sell the knife for $420.00. The good news is you don't pay captial gains on the interest made. Also, this is not counted as any form of income. If you get paid cash, well then a whole new set of rules apply.

If you are in a position to, now is the time to buy quality knives. Once the economy rebounds you can expect prices to go up on materials, advertsing, show expenses, etc. As with any other product the cost will be passed on to the buyers.

With a little bit of homework you can put together a great portfolio.

JR I hope I haven't totally confused you or anyone else. I realize this may have slid off topic a little.
 
Les,

Thanks for the information. It truely makes a lot of sense.

I still don't think I am personally to the point of establishing a collection based primareily (or soley) on increase in value and investment. I am, however, buying higher quality knives while doing my homework on knives that seem to best hold their value on the secondary market. While it would have been a dream to keep every custom I have ever purchased to pass down the family line, knives cost money and often the easiest way to get that disposable income is to sell some of the knives you have accumulated. If the point comes where I must sell, I want to at least get my money back out of the process.
As of now, I primarily buy knives based on style, looks, materials, and name of maker as well as usability. Most of my knives get used somewhat. Some much less then others. I have recently taken ownership of a couple of rarer pieces that specifically for collector purposes and not using, but my main focus is knives I can use (or can be used when passed down) if I want to use a quality knife.
I think every collector of custom knives goes through several stages. My first stage buying inexpensive "neck" knives and small utility knives of the fixed blade variety. I wanted to buy cheaper fixed blade customs to use. I then moved on to larger fixed blades and a tactical folder. I then moved on to folder, primarily tactical/utility with more emphasis on the utility. At that point, I stuck to folders (and still some utility fixed blades)with higher end materials or rare/older pieces from a certain maker who's work I have become very fond of. Now, I'm looking for pieces from that maker as well as others that can be used if desired to be, but primarily to be put away to pass down and possibly be used as an investment. I don't think every collector goes through every stage or the same stages, but I believe we all go through some of them. I just like to get information from others who are already there so I don't run into the next stage blind.

Les, your post was great and made a lot of sense. I appreciate your time to respond.

JR
 
Les wrote:
For many people this would take the fun out of it. As it is more like work than a hobby.

Currently a 36 month CD is paying around 3%. Your bank is paying maybe 2% in a money market account (that of course is with a balance of $10,000).

If you bought a $400 knife and wanted to make 5% you would have to sell the knife for $420.00.
Click to expand...

Excellent points in the above post, Les. I have to differ on a point, though, and I speak from experience.

There is no guarantee that one will sell this item at a profit, especially if you are an individual. For this to work, you must rely on the forum 'For Sale' area's or auction sites. For the time it takes to pay shipping costs, auction fee's, PayPal, time spent listing this piece wherever, GOOD photo work :), and overall dialog back and forth, this simple 5% or $20.00 is hours of work. In your case it's a lot simpler, but in the general collector's/investor's position, this is not enough to make it worthwhile.

That bank CD is earning money while you sleep. I'm willing to chance it here and there, and have done well AND taken my lumps on occasion. :rolleyes: Its a fickle world, as you know.

Still good food for thought for the industrious....

Coop
 
Hi Coop,

You wrote:

"There is no guarantee that one will sell this item at a profit, especially if you are an individual. For this to work, you must rely on the forum 'For Sale' area's or auction sites. For the time it takes to pay shipping costs, auction fee's, PayPal, time spent listing this piece wherever, GOOD photo work , and overall dialog back and forth, this simple 5% or $20.00 is hours of work. In your case it's a lot simpler, but in the general collector's/investor's position, this is not enough to make it worthwhile."

Two points:

1) When I first started out there was no internet, no "good photo's" and it was much more difficult to make money selling knives that it is today.

My business was boot strapped, that is to say I never got a commercial loan. All my knives were bought and all my bills were paid by the profit from selling knives.

2) This point you may find the most ironic. People do all the things you wrote, take a picture (good bad and indiferent), list the knife (wherever), pay the fees (auction and pay pal). They do this while listing the knife for under retail. They do all of this work knowing they are going to take a loss!

My question has always been, why would you buy a knife you know you will take a loss on?

By the way, when the bank is paying you your 3%. Don't forget the capital gains you'll pay. The increase in income you will be taxed on. Oh yea one more thing. The average rate of inflation is 3%.

So with inflation and taxiation you have lost money on your guaranteed 3%. Everyone makes money on the CD....except for you.

Even if all of your expenses cost you 3%, you are still making 2%. Which is 2+% more than you are making with your CD.

If your going to be in custom knives for a long time. Spend thousands of dollars, you might as well do what is necessary to at least break even.

Just because it is a hobby doesn't mean you have to throw away money every year.

I do grant you it will take some work. Kinda like getting into the knife photography business. No guarantee's there, but it seems there are some people willing to put in the time and effort to do it.

In any venture in life...there is no return without risk.

It is a combination of ones level of risk aversion and their ability to foresee and manage risk. That will ultimately lead to failure or success. What most people don't realize is that failure is only failure...if you do not learn the lesson failure has taught you.
 
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