KGD, I've scoured your posts for evidence of anything other than being a blowhard. Nothing found.
Hmm, whose having the little meltdown?
Now, I will offer my typical blowhard response.
Here is a calculation based on reference man. Reference man is human model used for pharmacology/physiology calculations. It is used, with tolerances, by the same military manuals referred to.
Reference man has the following morphological attributes:
Body mass - 154 lbs
Total fat content - 23 lbs
Storage fat content - 18.5 lbs
Using a daily caloric calculator and putting in reference man's attributes, I get the following metabolic needs under a low, moderate and high activity scenario. These metabolic needs (daily caloric requirements) are based on the person present within the thermoneutral zone.
Low: 2251.6 kcal/day
Med: 2598.0 kcal/day
High: 2944.4 kcal/day
Now lets parameterize our little model. We'll call the "point of no return" to represent the situation where reference man has gotten down to 15% of his storage body fat less. Despite its name, a moderate amount of storage fat is needed for body function and for physiological regulation of sugar homeostasis.
1 lbs of fat = 3500 kcal
Thus 0.85 (85% of storage fat availability) x 18.5 lbs * 3500 kcal = 55,037.5 kcal available to support daily energy requirements on starvation.
On the surface, it would look like what Nemoaz has stated is true. I.e. if reference man can stay within the thermoneutral zone using a good shelter and fire plus maintaining the insulative value of his clothing, he can last for: 18.7, 21.2 and 24.4 days under a high, moderate, low activity schedule.
A quick search found the following line in an excellent PhD dissertation on the topic of human thermogenesis related to cold:
We recently found under more severe cold exposure, using the same experimental set up, that when shivering is evident, MR increases 30 to 60% as soon as shivering starts
See link for a good read:
http://www.wtb.tue.nl/woc/wet/alumni/Thesis_Claessens.pdf
What the author refers to as extreme cold is in fact not very extreme. It was an exposure to 15oC (59 oF) to induce a shivering response. I think it is safe to say that M. Hawk and Ruth were experiencing effective temperatures (considering their insulation) well below this. Given this distinction, I'm going to suggest we push Claessens van Ooijen's thesis value for extreme cold to produce an effective increase of 70% higher metabolic rate under cold relative to normal.
Thus, under shivering thermogenesis cold conditions, reference man has the following daily energetic requirements:
Low: 3827.7 kcal/day
Med: 4416.6 kcal/day
High: 5005.5 kcal/day
Note, that somebody already put an estimate of caloric use of 5000 kcal/d which is pretty much bang on with the high estimate above.
Okay - back to how long will that fat sustain reference man? In this case, the range is 11.0, 12.5, 14.4 days for low, moderate and high. So I suppose the term week is applicable to survival duration. The term weeks is only applicable to the Low metabolic rate estimate.
Comments and assumptions. As Bulgeron mentions, these calculations are a bit simplistic, but they are actual calculations with sourced references for their basis. The body can also, and will begin protein catabolism long before exhaustion of full fat stores and this will provide a supplementary effect to energy needs. Excessive protein catabolism has consequences though. The circulating ketone bodies cause blood acidosis which can essentially give you diabetic type symptoms and ultimately put you into a coma.
Higher body fat contents will serve you well and I suspect that Mike Hawke and Ruth might be a little more plump than reference man. Alternatively, higher body weight contributes to a higher metabolic rate necessitating re-jigging the calculations.
The body may respond earlier than the 20% mark of loss of body fat by adaptive strategies. E.g. the body may attempt to lower metabolic rate which puts you at risk of critical loss of core temperature and death. Individuals show a high degree of variation in physiological response and what kills one person may not kill another. An interesting connotation of Claessens van Ooijen's thesis is that metabolic response is consistent from individual to individual and there was little evidence to suggest a major acclimation response, all things being equal. Thus, training isn't really going to make you better at your physiological response. Much like training does not alter your Vo2(max). However, training does influence your approach problem solving abilities.
When it comes down to it, would M. Hawke and Ruth last out weeks, not eating anything? Having a very high probability of becoming wet from the growing soggier and soggier conditions they were experiencing and given the possibility of not being able re-establish their fire, I think the prognosis for them at day 3 was pretty grim. M. Hawke acknowledged this. At that point in time a better shelter might not have helped them much more especially without getting the fire going.
Different strategies? Sure there could have been better decisions but its a heck of a lot easier to critique what was done after the fact than it is when living the life. I'm not sure why they didn't use a long fire to compliment their lean to, much like Ray Mears presented in his boreal show. Mike would have had a better fighting chance if his fire hadn't gone out. Which means he should have spent more time foraging for wood on night 2. Then again, he was totally beat at the end of that day and here I think we have a good demonstration of why the axe rather than long knife is king in the arctic environment. He was really using up a lot of energy taking down trees with his knife and having an axe instead could have helped him in the wood department.
Clearly M. Hawke wasn't planning on using as much energy as he did on day 3. Should have stopped earlier? Perhaps. A good lesson in the show is that M. Hawke basically went and pushed himself and his wife too far in the walk. It took the slush to jog his mind into realizing that air-strip wasn't going to be in the cards that day. They totally wiped themselves out. They probably blew through more than 5000 calories on the last day. So perhaps it was a poor decision to leave on the third day. Perhaps it was a poor decision to stay put the first 2 days. Still, the reference man calcs tell me that they couldn't stay put at the snowbile site indefinitely. Days, verses 2 weeks. When you don't know if help is coming, the only thing you know for sure is that you will get weaker and weaker and closer to death the longer you wait. They probably should have left immediately back on their trail which at the time was still hard packed and easier to walk.
Unfortunately, nobody has a crystal ball. They took a gamble with each major decision they made and I don't think they were unreasonable ones. Perhaps the biggest problem is that they included so little kit as part of their day trip. Heck, I take more emergency gear to the office then they had with them. A couple of survival blankets, firesteel and extra insulation layer (e.g. dry mid-weight fleece) might have made the world of difference. Four cliff bars would have made their life a tonne better.
Still, like others said. Its a TV-show. I respect the integrity of the show to demonstrate when its time to pull the plug. Even Les had to do so a time or two. I don't think it speaks poorly of Mike Hawke's survival capabilities. I sill like the show!