Random Thought Thread

tinfoil hat timmy said:
I thought I was having brake pads done.

turns out we needed rotors pads and a wheel bearing.

come to find out there's another bearing due to be replaced asap.

so it's not really anything that I'd have felt comfortable doing myself past brake pads but today slapped me in the face with an unexpected grand siphoned from my savings.

way too much fun
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I've always been grateful to be able to work on my families and my own vehicles

Seeing what our service department charges for things.... you have to take a loan out to get a vehicle fixed if you can't do it yourself
 
Nathan the Machinist said:
Man I really wish I could accommodate that.

Looking at this like as a product design engineering consultant (I am) a job shop (I am) and a contract CNC programmer, the cost to properly develop the untested design in CAD was about $8,000. Programming, setup and fixturing will probably be close to 20K to set up for production for all of the different parts. Add engineering changes due to design tweaks after testing and validation and the cost to put these into production in a shop with normal burdened overhead is probably 30-40K (we're pretty lean, a shop like Spiderco or Benchmade is probably double that for a new pattern). Divided by 100 folders is $350 amortized expenses. Plus material, carbide, spindle time, heat treat, finishing, assembly, tuning and final profit margin and they're going to be pretty expensive.

Now, a left handed variation might cost half of that to set up. And we make ten of them. It ends up being a $4,000 custom folder. That isn't a good value and a person would be better served having a custom maker build them something using manufacturing processes better suited to very low volumes.

I'm sorry, but I can't offer a fair value using the manufacturing processes we're going to employ in those volumes, and I don't want to get into mixing our processes either (I'm already chronically overwhelmed trying to juggle things here). I really wish I could do this for you but I'm simply not up to it.
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Thank you for the very detailed, logical explanation. Totally understand your position, the numbers speak for themselves. My request was a bit of wishful thinking combined with business naïveté. Thank you again for taking the time to explain it.
 
tinfoil hat timmy said:
I thought I was having brake pads done.

turns out we needed rotors pads and a wheel bearing.

come to find out there's another bearing due to be replaced asap.

so it's not really anything that I'd have felt comfortable doing myself past brake pads but today slapped me in the face with an unexpected grand siphoned from my savings.

way too much fun
Click to expand...
About 10,000 miles ago my car started making a weird noise at 30+ mph. Thought there was something loose somewhere that was catching the wind. Couldn't find anything so finally took it in to be checked out. Needed new front rotors and pads. Was really surprised cuz I had just replaced the pads 20k before that, and the sound didn't seem brake related, so didn't even think to check them. Then I remembered that when I bought the pads, they didn't have the middle quality ones that I normally get, so had to get the "best" ones. Great, they stop 2ft shorter, but only last 20k instead of 60k...awesome!:rolleyes::mad:
 
yoko said:
Funny I wear a "smart" watch and will admit I'm not smart at all

That's all I have except for my calculator watch from the 80s that's some where around here

View attachment 1782993
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does having a smart watch mean you can just let yourself go feral and the watch will take care of all the boring civilized stuff?

asking for a friend...
 
Nathan the Machinist said:
Man I really wish I could accommodate that.

Looking at this like as a product design engineering consultant (I am) a job shop (I am) and a contract CNC programmer, the cost to properly develop the untested design in CAD was about $8,000. Programming, setup and fixturing will probably be close to 20K to set up for production for all of the different parts. Add engineering changes due to design tweaks after testing and validation and the cost to put these into production in a shop with normal burdened overhead is probably 30-40K (we're pretty lean, a shop like Spiderco or Benchmade is probably double that for a new pattern). Divided by 100 folders is $350 amortized expenses. Plus material, carbide, spindle time, heat treat, finishing, assembly, tuning and final profit margin and they're going to be pretty expensive.

Now, a left handed variation might cost half of that to set up. And we make ten of them. It ends up being a $4,000 custom folder. That isn't a good value and a person would be better served having a custom maker build them something using manufacturing processes better suited to very low volumes.

I'm sorry, but I can't offer a fair value using the manufacturing processes we're going to employ in those volumes, and I don't want to get into mixing our processes either (I'm already chronically overwhelmed trying to juggle things here). I really wish I could do this for you but I'm simply not up to it.
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If you only make 100, you might officially break bladeforums once and for all 😅
 
Nathan the Machinist said:
Man I really wish I could accommodate that.

Looking at this like as a product design engineering consultant (I am) a job shop (I am) and a contract CNC programmer, the cost to properly develop the untested design in CAD was about $8,000. Programming, setup and fixturing will probably be close to 20K to set up for production for all of the different parts. Add engineering changes due to design tweaks after testing and validation and the cost to put these into production in a shop with normal burdened overhead is probably 30-40K (we're pretty lean, a shop like Spiderco or Benchmade is probably double that for a new pattern). Divided by 100 folders is $350 amortized expenses. Plus material, carbide, spindle time, heat treat, finishing, assembly, tuning and final profit margin and they're going to be pretty expensive.

Now, a left handed variation might cost half of that to set up. And we make ten of them. It ends up being a $4,000 custom folder. That isn't a good value and a person would be better served having a custom maker build them something using manufacturing processes better suited to very low volumes.

I'm sorry, but I can't offer a fair value using the manufacturing processes we're going to employ in those volumes, and I don't want to get into mixing our processes either (I'm already chronically overwhelmed trying to juggle things here). I really wish I could do this for you but I'm simply not up to it.
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I think you will sell a lot more then you think but. Can we get hole for a clip on the other side for us lefties?
 
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Nathan the Machinist said:
Looking at this like as a product design engineering consultant (I am) a job shop (I am) and a contract CNC programmer, the cost to properly develop the untested design in CAD was about $8,000. Programming, setup and fixturing will probably be close to 20K to set up for production for all of the different parts. Add engineering changes due to design tweaks after testing and validation and the cost to put these into production in a shop with normal burdened overhead is probably 30-40K (we're pretty lean, a shop like Spiderco or Benchmade is probably double that for a new pattern). Divided by 100 folders is $350 amortized expenses.
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XtianAus said:
If you only make 100, you might officially break bladeforums once and for all 😅
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Reading through Nathan's numbers, I'm thinking, yeah, ok, that makes sense. Then I got to the 100 folders part. Judging by the interest for a CPK folder, the fanaticism for anything CPK, the loyalty to the CPK name, crew, and product, I sort of thought that might be a bit of an underestimate. I'm not saying a left-handed version would be a good business decision - I don't have a dog in that fight - I'm a righty. And to be clear, I'm not trying to influence Nathan's business decisions. My point is that it seems many hundreds of folders would be snatched up in an amazing frenzy (myself too, the internet gods willing), and perhaps the fixed costs would be diluted by a factor of 10 or more. As for the lefty's - good luck, and maybe start practicing that right-hand dexterity.:D
 
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Nathan the Machinist said:
Man I really wish I could accommodate that.

Looking at this like as a product design engineering consultant (I am) a job shop (I am) and a contract CNC programmer, the cost to properly develop the untested design in CAD was about $8,000. Programming, setup and fixturing will probably be close to 20K to set up for production for all of the different parts. Add engineering changes due to design tweaks after testing and validation and the cost to put these into production in a shop with normal burdened overhead is probably 30-40K (we're pretty lean, a shop like Spiderco or Benchmade is probably double that for a new pattern). Divided by 100 folders is $350 amortized expenses. Plus material, carbide, spindle time, heat treat, finishing, assembly, tuning and final profit margin and they're going to be pretty expensive.

Now, a left handed variation might cost half of that to set up. And we make ten of them. It ends up being a $4,000 custom folder. That isn't a good value and a person would be better served having a custom maker build them something using manufacturing processes better suited to very low volumes.

I'm sorry, but I can't offer a fair value using the manufacturing processes we're going to employ in those volumes, and I don't want to get into mixing our processes either (I'm already chronically overwhelmed trying to juggle things here). I really wish I could do this for you but I'm simply not up to it.
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Ever checked out the ambidextrous locks like the AD15, AD20 etc.? Maybe get the inspiration to design your own? Then it would negate the righty/lefty issue.
 
XtianAus said:
If you only make 100, you might officially break bladeforums once and for all 😅
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I'm only making about 100. That's all the material I ordered. It's a first run prototype, I could potentially put them all in the creek bed if they don't work right. I don't want to risk a larger run.
 
JohnBarleycorn said:
Reading through Nathan's numbers, I'm thinking, yeah, ok, that makes sense. Then I got to the 100 folders part. Judging by the interest for a CPK folder, the fanaticism for anything CPK, the loyalty to the CPK name, crew, and product, I sort of thought that might be a bit of an underestimate. I'm not saying a left-handed version would be a good business decision - I don't have a dog in that fight - I'm a righty. And to be clear, I'm not trying to influence Nathan's business decisions. My point is that it seems many hundreds of folders would be snatched up in an amazing frenzy (myself too, the internet gods willing), and perhaps the fixed costs would be diluted by a factor of 10 or more. As for the lefty's - good luck, and maybe start practicing that right-hand dexterity.:D
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Yeah, that's the other thing. This first folder is part of me paying my tuition. It's a lesson. But I don't need to increase the complexity of that lesson making a left-handed variation out of the gate.
 
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