Random Thought Thread

Today I saw more and more clearly the path that a huge number of people are taking in the financial markets.


The average loss I’m observing among people is from –40% to –60% of their capital.


And this is happening on a rising market.


How do they even manage to do that?
Family savings down > –90%
Took out a loan to buy more because it was dropping → still –90%


Guys, just stay the hell away from the markets.

TikTok and social media are making people gamble like never before.


Completely without any attempt to understand what they’re doing.


This is an epidemic.
 
Moorik said:
Today I saw more and more clearly the path that a huge number of people are taking in the financial markets.


The average loss I’m observing among people is from –40% to –60% of their capital.


And this is happening on a rising market.


How do they even manage to do that?
Family savings down > –90%
Took out a loan to buy more because it was dropping → still –90%


Guys, just stay the hell away from the markets.

TikTok and social media are making people gamble like never before.


Completely without any attempt to understand what they’re doing.


This is an epidemic.
Click to expand...
On the plus side, 6 people made $1 million dollar wagers on Polymarket on 2/27, that Iran would be bombed by 2/28. The $6 million ‘gamble’ returned $529 million.

Is it gambling if it’s not really gambling? 😅
 
bluemax_1 said:
On the plus side, 6 people made $1 million dollar wagers on Polymarket on 2/27, that Iran would be bombed by 2/28. The $6 million ‘gamble’ returned $529 million.

Is it gambling if it’s not really gambling? 😅
Click to expand...
Right now, Polymarket is being used as a way to make money by people who arbitrage positions. I’m too lazy to explain exactly how it works, but basically people earn small, “guaranteed” percentages by doing something like betting arbitrage — placing a lot of bets, moving them across different platforms, and so on.

In the end, for those who genuinely think Polymarket is something good — honestly, if you go and buy something like Fartcoin, the outcome will be more or less the same:

  • 90% of your family capital gone
  • 90% of borrowed money gone
  • And so on
The point is that the people who actually know how to work with all of this properly are an extremely tiny percentage. Meanwhile, there’s a huge amount of what I’d call “funding meat” — yes, that’s what I call the majority of the market.

Essentially, people are pulling liquidity into these assets, only helping a massive number of useless and dumb tokens continue to deceive and scam others. At the same time that regular people are buying, funds and the companies/projects/startups themselves are simply dumping on the market — selling into the very people who are buying.

Considering that the market is generally in an uptrend, I’m honestly surprised how so many people still manage to lose money.


The thing is, before, people at least tried to approach this using some kind of analysis — something an ordinary person, far removed from the industry, could realistically use.


Now the mindset is constant: “any minute now… any minute now… it crashed, which means I heard somewhere you’re supposed to buy the dip.” And it turns into an endless cycle of “now, now… it’s about to go up… honey, just wait.”


The result is genuinely tragic stories — and there are A LOT of them. A huge number. People just don’t usually talk about it.


Only a small part of my job (maybe 5% at most) is related to this — not so much to save them, because at some point that’s no longer possible — but at least to minimize the damage. I literally try to convince people to exit and take whatever they can salvage.


But you know what they say?


“Any minute now, it’s going to go up. I’m sure.”


And this “any minute now” has been going on for… let’s say, almost four years.


I’ve never seen such a gambler-style approach.


And the thing is, it’s probably your friend, acquaintance, or relative — and you might not even realize what they’ve gotten themselves into.


The scariest case I’ve seen was this guy, around 30 years old, who inherited a VERY substantial amount of money — a lot.


He invested it into crypto that was “about to go up any minute now.” That was three years ago.


In the end, he lost something like more than 60% of his inheritance. I’m serious. It’s brutal.


His family worked for generations, and he burned through it in three years.


I tried to convince him to just earn steady interest on the money and leave it at that.


But he wanted to multiply it. Because:


“Any minute now, it’s going to go up.”


That’s the current narrative — literally the motto:


“Any minute now.”
 
Moorik said:
Today I saw more and more clearly the path that a huge number of people are taking in the financial markets.


The average loss I’m observing among people is from –40% to –60% of their capital.


And this is happening on a rising market.


How do they even manage to do that?
Family savings down > –90%
Took out a loan to buy more because it was dropping → still –90%


Guys, just stay the hell away from the markets.

TikTok and social media are making people gamble like never before.


Completely without any attempt to understand what they’re doing.


This is an epidemic.
Click to expand...


"Joseph P. Kennedy Sr. (father of President John F. Kennedy)

In 1929, just before the stock market crash, Kennedy was getting his shoes shined. The shoeshine boy started giving him tips on which stocks to buy.

Kennedy realized that when the general public—including shoeshine boys, taxi drivers, Tin Foil Hat Timmy, and beggars—were so heavily involved in the market that they were offering tips, it meant the market was overvalued, and on the brink of a crash.


"You know it's time to sell when shoeshine boys give you stock tips".

Kennedy exited his positions in the market and bought short positions, which allowed him to avoid the losses and significantly increase his fortune during the 1929 crash"
 
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