Random Thought Thread

SharpBits said:
Remember, owing is better than a refund. That means your money was earning (at least I hope it was) while the over-payment refunds were just sitting idle in the government's account. Zero owed, zero back is best, but I'll take owed over refund.
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Oh I am quite familar with this notion lol. But yes, I would rather take a loan from the Govt then me loaning them money lol. They now charge 7% interest on their under payments which is quite lame...
 
Hello CPK'ers, it's your left-fielder uncle here again chiming in about your due taxes and/or expected refunds. Remember boys and girls that your income taxes are paid in the form of bank deposits which are transferred from some private banks (Chase, BoA, Wells Fargo, etc) to the Treasury, i.e, you or your employer send(s) the IRS a check (electronic funds) and the bank transfers funds from these accounts to the IRS department of the Treasury. Deposit made in the Treasury's account are then converted by the Federal Reserve into reserves, which the Treasury then spends to private banks for payables. Some receive a tax refund and the bank credits that account with deposits that it creates and clears with its reserves. My own view still remains that they actually cancel these monies but then again, I am a bit nutz on this front!

Remember my friends that taxation primarily removes money from the private sector in order to control inflation which also affects interest rates. And no, you are not lending your government any money because they created that money in the first place before you earned it through your hard work. As my Canadian friend would say, soory, very soory to break it to you in this way 🤣
 
I've gotta say, we have it pretty good here in the old USA, taxes or not. (Politics and all the usual b.s. aside.)

I don't mind paying taxes, and I know I don't have the largest portfolio on these forums. Far from it...but nothing to complain about either.

I'd pay more voluntarily if I actually trusted the government enough to use it to the maximal benefit of the nation and its citizenry.

(And yes, the tax code is an abominable beast.)
 
Blues said:
I've gotta say, we have it pretty good here in the old USA, taxes or not. (Politics and all the usual b.s. aside.)

I don't mind paying taxes, and I know I don't have the largest portfolio on these forums. Far from it...but nothing to complain about either.

I'd pay more voluntarily if I actually trusted the government enough to use it to the maximal benefit of the nation and its citizenry.

(And yes, the tax code is an abominable beast.)
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I agree with you. If it was clearer how our tax dollars were spent or if we could allocate how our personal tax dollars were spent I’d feel much better about it.
 
JearBeatus48 said:
I agree with you. If it was clearer how our tax dollars were spent or if we could allocate how our personal tax dollars were spent I’d feel much better about it.
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The trouble is the lack of transparency...and, as you say, the lack of options and choices.

I worked for the Dept. of the Treasury, (before DHS) for many years, primarily as an LEO, but also early on as a non-sworn Revenue Officer...and I've seen some interesting things that would surprise people...by which I mean instances where big government showed it had a heart and / or cared about the spirit of the law. (Even experienced it myself on a tax return where I convinced them that their finding was against the spirit of the law and they actually agreed with my take and sent me back a check for the amount contested.)

There's plenty to be pissed about, and rightly so, but man, having some experience abroad both personally and professionally, I'm glad to have been made in the USA.
 
Richard338 said:
I'm the sucker who just inputs a W2, takes the standard deduction, and writes a check.
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I mostly do that anymore, Richard. I just can't be assed to itemize. I did it a few times when it was a big deal for a couple years, but nah...I just don't feel the need. I use my software for fed and state and am happy to get 'er done. (Though NC has to be the slowest state when it comes to returning your money...LOL)
 
Richard338 said:
Silver's at $80 again...
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Precious metals like gold and silver usually rise when big governments and major market players are accumulating large positions.

When ordinary people start rushing into silver or gold, that’s usually a sign of a peak.

Gold and silver tend to stay within the same price range for decades, and then literally within one year, after all that time, they break into a completely new range.

Right now, the $80–110 range for silver is most likely going to last for 10 years or even longer.

Gold and silver are not a hedge against inflation.

Gold and silver are, more often than not, a hedge against profit.

Of course, unless your great-grandfather left you some gold or silver bars.

You need silver and gold if you want to pass value on to your grandchildren — to carry wealth through the years.

Whenever I hear someone say they want to “make money” on gold and silver, I’m always surprised by that kind of thinking.
 
Moorik said:
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Gold and silver are not a hedge against inflation.

Gold and silver are, more often than not, a hedge against profit.
...
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Explains why gold did not jump to even headier heights during the recent war and the current Persian Gulf crisis. Both of the precious metals are now in a trading range where money can be both easily gained and lost. I have been quite skeptical about the stock market for quite a while now but plenty of money was made by the bulls during my skepticism, however I am too old and too long in the tooth for high risk/high reward types of speculations.

I still remain staunchly convinced that we are in an AI bubble but just many have stated, the previous tech bubble (dot com) was touted and well warned about a couple of years before the early 2000s crash and plenty made money during those couple of years and plenty more were left holding their wet bags.
 
Casinostocks said:
Explains why gold did not jump to even headier heights during the recent war and the current Persian Gulf crisis. Both of the precious metals are now in a trading range where money can be both easily gained and lost. I have been quite skeptical about the stock market for quite a while now but plenty of money was made by the bulls during my skepticism, however I am too old and too long in the tooth for high risk/high reward types of speculations.

I still remain staunchly convinced that we are in an AI bubble but just many have stated, the previous tech bubble (dot com) was touted and well warned about a couple of years before the early 2000s crash and plenty made money during those couple of years and plenty more were left holding their wet bags.
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I'll tell a very unpleasant fact.

The bubble may have only just started inflating.

Most likely, in the coming years, we will see the amount of money increase several times over.

And I think the idea of comparing the AI bubble to the dot-com bubble is precisely what left many people on the sidelines.

It's not that the AI bubble won't burst — it will burst just like the dot-com bubble did.

I think morality in the world is changing dramatically.

And most likely, people in the market have become much less surprised by certain events in the world.

I think we are only in the middle of the bubble.

And by the way, it doesn't necessarily have to burst exactly the same way the dot-com bubble did.

People have been taught to perceive the market through patterns and analysis, but neither patterns nor analysis work anymore.

Gold didn't jump higher because the big players who bought it 20 years ago at $500–600 are now selling it at $4,800.

And gold is priced in dollars, while the dollar, by the way, is currently extremely strong, despite everything.

Therefore, for poor buyers (the rest of the world, haha), gold is too expensive.

And in the context of their cheap local currencies, it makes sense for them to sell gold for dollars.

I have a lot of thoughts on this — ideas and concepts.

But I think I won't be able to formulate them into a coherent thought right now.

The market, money, morality — everything has changed.

That's why the patterns that worked before most likely don't work anymore.

My concept is this: what if the bubble doesn't burst? Or bursts only after a very long time?

And what if we are only somewhere in the middle, or even at one-third of it?

In that context, waiting for the bubble to explode could mean missing out on many opportunities.
 
Blues said:
The trouble is the lack of transparency...and, as you say, the lack of options and choices.

I worked for the Dept. of the Treasury, (before DHS) for many years, primarily as an LEO, but also early on as a non-sworn Revenue Officer...and I've seen some interesting things that would surprise people...by which I mean instances where big government showed it had a heart and / or cared about the spirit of the law. (Even experienced it myself on a tax return where I convinced them that their finding was against the spirit of the law and they actually agreed with my take and sent me back a check for the amount contested.)

There's plenty to be pissed about, and rightly so, but man, having some experience abroad both personally and professionally, I'm glad to have been made in the USA.
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I would be all ears to listen to those stories.
 
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JearBeatus48 said:
I would be all ears to listen on some of those stories.
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I'll give an example that meant a lot to me as a Revenue Officer.

I was sent into the field to see a taxpayer who owed what I would consider a reasonably large sum for most people in about 1981 or so...roughly $50K.

Turned out that the taxpayer was a little old Jamaican lady who was a home health care worker taking care of an even older and infirm old lady who couldn't manage on her own.

I sat down with her to find out how she had gotten into this mess...and it turned out that she essentially sent virtually every dollar she didn't spend on taking care of herself...to televangelists. Yeah, the ones that make us feel dirty watching them imploring their TV audiences and congregation for more and more filthy lucre to live a lifestyle of the rich and famous.

She showed me records of the money orders and instruments she sent to these (multiple) "churches".

Now I was in a spot. First of all, you can't get blood from a stone, but it wasn't that simple. The problem was that as a representative of the gov't it wasn't my place, (nor allowed), for me to give advice and counsel to a taxpayer, (even a simple, sweet, hardworking, honest little old lady), and yet I couldn't bear to watch her be sucked dry by these TV pitch men.

So, I couched my words very carefully and explained to her that she might want to consider some things, (as you might imagine), and that she might be doing better work in furtherance of her beliefs by taking care of herself so she could take care of the woman in her care, and her own extended family and community.

Then, I had to plead my case to my boss and his bosses about why I wanted to write the amount off as I couldn't countenance trying to collect, or otherwise create havoc in this woman's life. She was about as innocent a soul as you could imagine.

The higher-ups eventually reviewed my report and agreed to wipe out her debt. It meant the world to me personally, and it demonstrated that even an agency like the IRS could make a decision against its own financial interest that resonated with those of a charitable disposition.

_________

And as I mentioned above, when I personally had a review of a return and was assessed P&I for a reason I no longer remember...I looked up the code, copied the section in a letter to the examiner, and explained why I felt that the assessment was not within the spirit of the law and justified my position with the words of the code. (Arguing that they could justify the tax with the words on paper, but not by the spirit of the law as intended.)

I included a check for the assessment, and told the examiner that I would abide by his or her decision and would not file for reconsideration if they found my explanation and argument without merit.

A few months later, to my surprise, I got a check for the amount I had paid. (Several hundred as I recall.) They didn't send back my check, but a gov't check for the same amount. It restored some faith that the system was still capable of being fair even when they were right "on paper".


___________

I have other examples but mostly from the perspective of non IRS, criminal investigative matters,...primarily in courtroom settings at trial where some events occurred once again to restore faith in a system which easily could create a jaded perspective on a day to day basis over the years.
 
Moorik said:
Maybe it'll explode tomorrow too.That's why the current markets seem more complicated than ever before.Because now no analysis or rules work anymore.
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I am going to be 63 in a few month so I've seen the boom and bust cycles a good few times during my own adult life. Whenever you hear the so-called experts stating, "but this time it is different" you should know that this shell game is very much the same as it has always been but packaged and presented in a more glitzy way that frankly, your average retail investor should not be mired in. As technology advances, the algorithms become so sophisticated that smart money is long gone into other positions before the retail investor takes his next breath when snoring. Right now the bubble goes on to get more inflated because there is really no other alternative but the stock market; it was the exact same during the dot com, till it wasn't.
 
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