The "Lots of Satisfied Customers" Fallacy

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Marion David Poff

Marion David Poff

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Good Day,

Lately I have heard of two custom makers using the "Lots of Satisfied Customers" argument.

It goes like this.....

A custom maker is questioned directly or indirectly in regards to the materials, style, or method of knife made. The maker responds by saying.... "Well, I have hundreds of satisfied customers of that knife [material, style or method]."

And that is supposed to explain the superiority of their product. And nullify all claims that the material, style or method of knife is less than perfect.

Well, that line of logic is hog wash.

How many Twinkies are sold each year? The reality that someone can be fooled into buying something through the use of hype or other marketing techniques does not make the product a truly valuable item. Should we all shoot heroin becasue of the millions of satisfied addicts?

Furthermore, are we to assume that all those satisfied customers are competent enough to verify the claims or quantify the performance of their knives? Is every knife buyer an expert? Or more likely, given the custom knife world prices... Not many want to inspect their "Million Dollar Utility Knife" too closely....

Oh, before anyone calls me a Mad Dog basher, I have three particular people in mind. This is not an anamolous mindset, in this industry or any other.

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Thank you,
Marion David Poff aka Eye, Cd'A ID, USA mdpoff@hotmail.com

Talonite and Cobalt Materials Resource Page

"We will either find a way, or make one." Hannibal, 210 B.C.
 
Sorry--I got hung up on how similar are my addictions to blades and Twinkies. Makes me wonder if all those heroin addicts really ARE satisfied. I might almost...nah...I hear that damn stuff is almost as expensive as my blade habit. Now--what was that you were saying?
Oh, yeah. I think anyone who uses that argument should have to debate Cliff Stamp.

 
Marion :

A custom maker is questioned directly or indirectly in regards to the materials, style, or method of knife made. The maker responds by saying.... "Well, I have hundreds of satisfied customers of that knife [material, style or method]."
Click to expand...

This means either :

-the maker knows he has an inferior product and doesn't want to say so

-doesn't care enough to take the time to answer your question

-doesn't really know why what he is doing works

-doesn't want to let the "secret" about his work out

None of these indicate someone who I want to support and so I simply pass. There are lots of great makers out there, there are also lots of not so great makers. It is not a hard decision to make which way to go.

As standard opening I will discuss the design choices of the maker (why don't you do this instead of that). If they are not willing to discuss this in a sensible manner I pass. The next step is to ask them about the performance. If they are not willing to guarantee the performance I pass.

There are a couple of exceptions of course. If you ask a maker for his exact heat treat method or something similar it is to be expected that they be reluctant unless they can trust you. And of course if you ask a maker to work with something he is not familiar with you are taking your chances with the outcome.

Try talking to R.J. Martin, Jerry Hossom, Phil Wilson, and Jerry Busse about why they do what they do the way they do it.

I think anyone who uses that argument should have to debate Cliff Stamp.
Click to expand...

I wouldn't wish that on my worst enemy.

-Cliff
 
Great points, Cliff. Frankly, I would recommend being highly suspect of secrets. My experience has been that most of the best makers don't have any secrets. Not all, but most.

Dialogue is a great way of assessing if the buyer and the maker can establish a level of trust, and like any other product, trust is vital. In my judgement, any maker should stand behind every word they say with a simple statement. "If you don't like it, I'll buy it back." No caveats, no hedges, no BS.

Dialogue is good for both buyer and maker. It also gives the maker a chance to decide if he will be able to satisfy the customer. I have more than once told a prospective customer, "I don't make that kind of knife." or "Here's how I do that. Will that work for you?" or "Let me suggest you talk to ____."

The customer and I must feel comfortable with one another, or someone is going to be unhappy.

That's one reason why BladeForums is a great resource. It brings me in touch with the opinions of far more knife users than I would ever meet in my lifetime. And I think it likely helps knife buyers better understand what knifemakers are all about. What are the questions to ask? What are the concensus needs? Give and take.

Communications rule!!



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Jerry Hossom
www.hossom.com
 
This is an interesting topic and I can certainly see some validity to both sides of the "secrets" question.

As purely an anecdote, I recall being at a gun/knife type show in Nashville many years ago and talking with a maker who was displaying his wares along with a local collector at one of the tables. He had some real good looking knives and they were almost all fb hunters. I asked him what kind of steel they were made of and he said RGS. For a second, I didn't want to appear totally stupid so I let the conversation go on for a minute or so and couldn't stand it any longer so I asked him what was RGS. He said "real good stuff." I laughed and went on about my business and ended up buying some kind of whizbang stag trapper with a German name that has all but been long forgotten. I just didn't fall for that RGS thing. The maker was Bob Loveless.
 
Secrets??? only one!! My logo engraving is my only secret.
smile.gif
It has NOTHING to do with the function of the knife anyway. I have local customers visiting my shop often. They will hand select handle material, discuss options and look at finished knives. Sometimes I'll even let them make some sparks!! I will be glad to show them EVERY aspect of making a knife as long as they are willing to listen.
I feel that selling to other forum members is a good test of a knife maker. Impartial reviews of knives can be read by 5000?? members. I would call this a good incentive for makers to keep their quality up!!
Neil

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Blackwood Knives
More knives in stock! New Talonite models soon!!
http://www.geocities.com/Eureka/Meeting/5520/index.html

[This message has been edited by Dr.Lathe (edited 03-09-2000).]

[This message has been edited by Dr.Lathe (edited 03-09-2000).]
 
Satisfied custoers are a very important part of the equation.

But to make my point...

There are probably thousands of satisfied United Cutlery customers, but that does not mean that a United Cutlery knife is the best thing on the planet, simply that the expectations of the customer had been met.

And given the prices of most higher end knives, and the lifestyles of those buying the, not many of the custom knives are being used hard.

BTW, I recieved an email chastising me for my analogy about heroin addicts. My apologies.

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Thank you,
Marion David Poff aka Eye, Cd'A ID, USA mdpoff@hotmail.com

Talonite and Cobalt Materials Resource Page

"We will either find a way, or make one." Hannibal, 210 B.C.
 
Quote from a custom maker's website, "a maker is only as good as the last knife to leave his shop". That says it all.

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It's only a mistake if you fail to learn from it!
 
First off, let me begin by saying that I am one of the makers MDP is talking about, I would have replyed to this sooner but have very little time to frequent the forums these days, due to lots of satisfied customers and repeat customers and a 2 year backlog.
smile.gif


I dont understand when MDP says that the logic of satisfied customers is a line of hogwash, that is like calling my customers liars, stupid, ignorant, dumb, or whatever. I have many, many customers that were using sharp steel hard in harsh enviroments in life and death situations before you were born Marion so I resent that statement a bit. I consider them to be the "experts" and respect their opinions. Why? Because even though they may not even think about that sharp steel much when they are not using it, they know what works in the field when they are! When they talk, I listen, and I am a better knifemaker and person for their knowlege and experiance.

I dont understand the Twinkie thing at all.

Me argue with Cliff? Never, he likes to argue and
I would just lose as I only finished the 8th grade and he would win anyway. Besides, I respect his opinion, and I have NEVER seen him get personal in his posts, wish I could say the same.
smile.gif


I can only speak for myself when I say that although I do testing in my shop, I dont do as much as I like due to backlog. So I do rely a certain amount on my customer field testing feedback, and I feel that is a good thing as I can say that my customers arent the kind that would be happy with a United Cutlery knife or they wouldnt be getting a knife from me or any other custom maker for that matter.

Lastly Marion, are you a knife "expert"? And what is the definition of a knife "expert"?

Thats all for now folks!

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www.simonichknives.com

[This message has been edited by Rob Simonich (edited 03-11-2000).]
 
Definition of Expert...

An Ex is a has-been,

And a Spurt is a drip under pressure...

So, an Ex-spurt is a has been drip under pressure.

That settled, thousands of satisfied customers can mean several things. A) you've served thousands of people something they got, and expected, and decided never to buy again. B) You've given hundreds of people more than they expected and they came back for more. C) You are K-mart. Or Mickey-D's. And I, for one, would never buy a knife of the quality of goods/services I expect to find at those or similar stores.

Satsified simply means you haven't charged enough money beyond the customers expectations to warrant complaints.


Stryver
 
Did I miss something here? What is wrong with having satisfied customers?

The arguement as I understood it was that a knifemaker should not hide behind his "satisfied customer" but rather come foward and answer questions as frankly and directly as he(she)can. Custom/handmade knife makers exist because they facilitate one on one comunication. If a knifemaker is unwilling to respond to my inquires or concerns I might as well buy my knife at the local K-mart. As I see it this is more a customer service issue than a quality control issue.
 
Marion,

If you want to share; just table some of your questions here (on the Forums). You should either get a prompt answer from the maker or from some of his many satisfied customers.

I am sure many of us have the same concerns and questions*.

* No implication intended with respect to Rob Simonich - I intend to become another of his satisfed customers ASAP; Rob, sent you an e-mail
smile.gif


[This message has been edited by not2sharp (edited 03-11-2000).]
 
Marion
Very simple test: Check back in, let's say, 5 years.
Those still in business have probably satisfied customers.
Those gone probably were just marketing experts...
wink.gif


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D.T. UTZINGER
 
There are a lot of things in this life that defy logic.Love,religon,and politicians are three that come to mind.IMO

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have a"knife"day
 
I think there may be a misconception here that knifemakers are an insulated or isolated community and someone can waltz merrily along making trash and no one will know about it.

There are a good number of checks and balances already in place. Zut made a good point, if you're still in this business after a few years, particularly as a mostly fulltime maker, you don't survive making a less than a very good product. The people who buy custom knives are generally not those who do their shopping at K-Mart. They are usually intelligent, well-read and knowledgeable. Almost all serious collectors subscribe to one of the knife magazines and are a reasonably well-informed clientel. Most own knives from more than one maker, so a bad comparison stands out starkly against the standards of other makers.

Knife shows allow comparison shopping, looking at the quality of deisgn, fit and finish from maker to maker. It is also the site of customer interaction and discussions. A bad maker gets smoked out of his hole pretty quickly if he does a few shows each year.

Unhappy customers are not usually quiet customers. And in the hunting community I don't know anyone who hunts alone. Hunters talk about their gear and are remorseless in their demands on a knife, especially if you sell to a lot of them. And in the final analysis they are the only people who can legitimately test the quality of a hunting knife. All other measures can only infer quality.

And the best true measure of the quality of a maker is, as Rob said, his repeat business. If you hear a few people say they own two from so-and-so, then so-and-so is likely pretty good at what he does. Qualify your sources, ask around, filter your inputs.

Want a safe benchmark for evaluating makers? How much do they get, and how long is their backlog. I can promise you a maker does not have a two year backlog if he is just average. And just average knives don't sell for $500 for very long. This is not to say that some very good makers might not have lower prices and shorter backlogs; it means simply that demand is a good indicator of the quality of the supply, because it is a concensus endorsement by a lot of people. Can they be wrong? Sure, but then so too are "experts".

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Jerry Hossom
www.hossom.com
 
Jerry,

It has been a long time since I have purchased a knife at K-mart; but, I have yet to purchase a knife from an unresponsive knifemaker. As Cliff said so clearly above... I see no reason to buy from an unresponsive maker.

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So how do I tell whether a maker is responsive or unrespoinsive?

here's an example.

Question: are you willing to make the same knife in (insert latest magical steel here)?

Good answers:
#1) Yes, I can make it for you but I am not sure I can get the same level of performance that I usually get from the pattern using "ABCD", and my time proven/tested heat treatment method. It would be interesting to find out, and I am willing to do my best with it, but you will have to let me know how it works out.

#2) No, I have tried that several times already and the results have been disappointing.

Poor Answer:

ABCD is the only way to go and I have a million customers to back that up.

##########################################

I will always put a premium on a good honest answer. I will never buy from someone who refuses to give me honest feedback.
 
Jerry :

Want a safe benchmark for evaluating makers? How much do they get, and how long is their backlog.
Click to expand...

That is one of the worst ways to judge quality there is. Blade popularity, especially the high end custom pieces is oftne dictitated by percieved ability rather than actual and on a "name" basis. How often have you read a commentary like "Even though I have never done XXX - I know this blade could easily handle it."

People will also get attached to makers and keep buying over and over without ever trying to see if there is a better product out there. They have a level of performance they are satisfied with. Which is fine, but that does not indicate anything about the relative ability of a maker with a shorter backlog and lower prices they they have never even bothered to try.

Quality is directly proportional to confidence (unless the maker is insane and actually believes his own hype) and confidence is extremely easy to evaluate - just talk to him. I recently sent an email off to Ed Caffery about the ability of his 52100. He sent me back a 2 page essay on the history of why he is using 52100 and how it compares to several other steels in very specific ways. Ed knows I have one of his blades coming and knows that I will be looking at exactly the properties he described. Does this put him off from describing the abilities to me? Of course not. He is confident is what he says.

Marion's point is not that having lots of customers, high prices, repeat orders etc., is a bad thing, it is simply that this alone does not indicate quality it indicates popularity (look at liner locks for example). His main detraction was against makers who avoid questions and just deflect with "I sell lots of blades without complaints."


-Cliff
 
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