Tomorrow's chopper sale and the random number generator

It does make it just as easy to bot though. Instead of posting after Nathan, you can have the script wait for a winning number. It doesn't even have to be the first winning number, making it even harder to detect botting over time. Even a human could potentially wait until the posts are slowing down and snipe a winning number.

I think, the amount of time it takes for the website to refresh and the number of people that post in that time frame, and the number of people that will be posting in a different refresh timeframe makes that unlikely. You also have to select the correct prime number that lands in a slow time frame but isn't outside of the one minute time frame. I could be wrong but I think it's too chaotic too game.

But, if somebody can figure out how to game it. That's pretty awesome, I'd like to see it.

We should figure out a challenge. This is giving me an idea....
 
It does make it just as easy to bot though. Instead of posting after Nathan, you can have the script wait for a winning number. It doesn't even have to be the first winning number, making it even harder to detect botting over time. Even a human could potentially wait until the posts are slowing down and snipe a winning number.
I don’t really think it’s that easy.

While in theory, someone could TRY to hit a specific post number, the reality is that you don’t know how many other people are simultaneously hitting ‘Submit Post’ at any point in time, so if for example, even if you program a bot to wait for post number 30 to show up before posting, by the time the post actually reaches the server, there may be 1 post, or 15 posts already ahead of it in the queue.
 
Really two obvious ways to solve the whole issue without RNGs or clever tactics.
The first one is to greatly increase production levels. Nathan has explained why it’s not currently possible.
The second one is to greatly increase prices which would take the meat off the bone for the flippers and help Nathan’s bottom line. I believe Matt has covered this in the past.
 
I don't see how a bot can target any specific post rather than to post as fast as possible.

#botsportsoutlawposting
It only posts as fast as possible after something happens: "Nathan's post appears." You are just changing the initial condition from "Nathan's post appears" to "post #42 appears." I don't think there are so many people posting at the end of the first minute that it would consistently fail.

However, I have no idea if anyone is actually using a bot, this is all hypothetical.
 
It only posts as fast as possible after something happens: "Nathan's post appears." You are just changing the initial condition from "Nathan's post appears" to "post #42 appears." I don't think there are so many people posting at the end of the first minute that it would consistently fail.

However, I have no idea if anyone is actually using a bot, this is all hypothetical.
It really depends on how in-demand the items in a particular sale are.

I can tell you that I’ve hit post 40-41 more than once while TRYING to post as fast as possible.

That’s also why I don’t think your theory above can work.

If the bot waits until post 40 to post, there is STILL going to be a fractional delay from the bot submitting the post, before it reaches the bf server. By the time the bot ‘sees’ post #40, there are likely 3-5 posts already in queue ahead of it (and the randomness is that even the bot won’t know if there’s one post or 5 posts, because that’s dependent on exactly how many people hit Submit Post within that small timeframe (because the posts have already been sent, they just haven’t been registered in the server queue YET, but by the time post 40 registers, there are already other posts in queue), AND the delays from their PC/phone to the bf server, so a bot can’t even target “Submit post 4 posts before XX”).

***At least the new server distinguishes between fractions of seconds/milliseconds, unlike the old server that only counted the second a post registered, leading to Nate’s sales having 3 people all showing as Post #2, four people with post #3, four people with post # 4 etc.. I remember those days, going “Woohoo! I’m post #19. Wait… what the heck… I’m actually post #45” 😂, and that’s why it negates using bots.

All the bot can do, is post faster than a human can. By Nathan specifically NOT picking post #2 as a winner, it takes that advantage away. Beyond the first reply, I don’t think there’s any real way to hit a specific post number, even if the bot is targeting it.
 
Nathan knows that. He's post #1, and wants post #2 to NOT be a winner so made 3 the first winner. Fast players will not want to be the first post (prime 2) as it assures they will lose. This changes how fast people play the game.
Bots can only easily target the first response, post #2, and that one is excluded from the winners, so pretty tough to gain advantage.
Thanks for the clarification, makes sense.
 
The fact that winning numbers remain, and no one is posting, seems to support the idea that revealing the numbers in advance is not helpful.

The RNG method seems better than fastest to post, but it seems like revealing the winning numbers after people post would be the best result with no ability to game the system.

That method had been proffered, and rejected. But if Nate and Jo decide they want to revisit, I will certainly volunteer to handle it again, if it is their wish.
 
The fact that winning numbers remain, and no one is posting, seems to support the idea that revealing the numbers in advance is not helpful.

The RNG method seems better than fastest to post, but it seems like revealing the winning numbers after people post would be the best result with no ability to game the system.

Those remaining prime numbers would have been disqualified anyway because of the "must post within the first minute" rule. The thread posted about 7(?) seconds later than scheduled because of Nathan's spotty internet connection while on the road though.
 
I can still put random numbers in the sale thread so people know immediately if they won or not, but not post what those numbers are going to be until the actual sale thread. Which means the bot would need to read the post discern the numbers and then hit those numbers

If there's only 10 Choppers available, I don't think there's enough time to do that

But here's what I propose

We'll start a thread on the forum and everybody post what odd prime number they're going to hit

And then they have to hit that number

That way we can give the bots a chance
 
Really two obvious ways to solve the whole issue without RNGs or clever tactics.
The first one is to greatly increase production levels. Nathan has explained why it’s not currently possible.
The second one is to greatly increase prices which would take the meat off the bone for the flippers and help Nathan’s bottom line. I believe Matt has covered this in the past.

There is a third one, the oncoming economic shock. I monitor the Bay quite frequently and despite some large margin flips on these new 2026 CPK Choppers and a few on the F-BFK, everything else seems to have pretty much settled in a range if a seller truly wishes to sell. That expected shock (matter of when and not if) should equalize the playing field.

Of course, this is not solely related to CPK but using it as an example of a "hot" and "can't miss" type of a myth.
 
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