The knife market is in a state of flux and fluidity.
I go to a fair amount of knife shows....TKI, AKI, Blade, Plaza, this year, going to Solvang.
Folding knives are definitely outselling fixed blades at the shows....by a wide margin.
To speak to what Joe is talking about....The Buck 110 is still one of the most popular folding knives available on the retail market to the general population.(how Buck makes a profit on a U.S made knife that has wood handles and about 4 oz of brass, sells for around $50.00 with a leather sheath included and comes with a limited lifetime warranty confounds me, I mean seriously, how do they do it??)
But when you are talking to knife collector/users, there are probably a lot more youngsters saving money to buy a ZT knife designed by Emerson, Hinderer or Sinkevich as a beginning knife and looking towards purchasing a Chris Reeve Sebenza. They quite often don't even consider the Buck knife.
The cult of personality continues to be a, if not THE dominant factor with this group of buyers. They want to get to know the makers like Emerson, who is truly treated like a rock star at shows and carries a battery powered, diamond tipped rotary grinder to autograph knives for people.....and he uses the heck out of it! For some of these collectors, it is ALL about aesthetics, as they are interested in only three things.....1)Who made it....2)How it looks.....3)How much will it sell for on the aftermarket. Use is not even a consideration, and along with that, ergonomics become unimportant.
Tactical knives are not currently a guaranteed hot ticket. The young collectors that came into the market because of the aftermarket profitability are slowly leaving because the "flip" is not a sure thing anymore, and the ones that are playing the game with scared money cannot afford to sit on cold product or make mistakes, and one thing custom knives have always experienced is tough going without a healthy reservoir of knowledge. You can't "think" you know what's up, you have to KNOW what's up.
The makers who have a good product at a reasonable price are doing ok. The top tier makers are doing fabulous....but the makers in between are looking at the future with uncertainty.
There are small boutique shops that create fixed blades that are doing well....not a "hot ticket" by any stretch, but slow and steady.
As an example, Southern Grind was making one model of fixed blade knife for a period of time and doing ok, but the introduction of their "Bad Monkey" folding knife made as much of a difference in sales as the Sebenza did for Chris Reeve Knives, and CRK NO LONGER produces the one-piece fixed blade knives that they became famous for.
I truly don't know what is going to happen with certain materials as far as legality/availability goes. Fossil ivories have never been my thing, and thusly I don't pay much attention to it. It's highly likely that a large portion of the knife buying public will reject a knife that has ANY ivory on it for practical reasons as well as emotional reasons that have nothing to do with logic. The reason I don't like any ivory is that it is subject to more shrinking/swelling in the SoCal environment than most other materials, and I prefer Mother of Pearls for stability and aesthetics...and stag for durability.
Everyone knows how I feel about the ABS, and their silence as an organization concerning the plight of the DesRosiers while unsurprising, is shameful and embarrassing. It does not reflect the true spirit of goodness and positivity that the knife community represents.
The makers who have not evolved stylistically, those who still use the "same ol'" materials are likely to have a very, very hard ability to make full time knifemaking viable in the very near future...the writing is on the wall.....looking to new markets like China or Russia is risky and adding loss through shipping as a factor is not an element that some of the more shrewd makers I know are willing to chance.
So, in answer to the question:
Large Forged Bowies in monosteel(without hamon) and ivory handles/stag carvers are very slow right now...would have to say that if you are successful selling drop-point hunters, you are likely one of the most lucky makers in the world.
Tactical knives are slowing for the middle group of makers, those who have been at it a while and who's prices reflect it. The "Mid-Tech" approach for some of these makers is dead in the water.
Kitchen knives are doing very well, not seeing any slowdown in this sector.
Great post, Joe.....looking forward to more discussion!
Best Regards,
STeven Garsson
Oh, and like many have already said, Don Hanson makes some amazing knives and will likely get my $$$ in the future!
