Aftermarket in the Toilet?

Well, as the market goes to hell, I thought I'd take an opportunity... I was thinking about funding a venture to make knock-offs of custom knives over in India. I had it all figured out. It seems to me that with all their little metal workers that are fairly skilled, and the fact that they would work REALLY cheaply, it shouldn't be that hard. Buy a couple three originals (cost $2000 or so), or just have my workers work off of some good pics from the magazines (cost $20 or so), crank out 300 or so knives of each (cost about $50-75 per with materials (i'd want to use good materials)and after shipping and such) with a slight change to the maker's mark or not even bother with a mark, sell them for $200-300 each as hand forged knives(using a dummy corp of some sort and the internet). Then go find some new models to reproduce and start it all over. Heck, I could make a buck and help feed some third worlders... I hear that they will work for a few bucks a week.
Do you think that buyers would look close enough to tell the difference if I had "Hancook" instead of Hancock, "furr" instead of Farr, "fugg" instead of Fogg, and the like? How about the MS, which I think would give added value...could I get away with using it, or would I have to use a facimile like SW or N MS (not mastersmith)?


OKay, okay... now that I'm sure I pumped up blood pressures across the world... I am just jerking y'all's chains. I'm pretty sure that it couldn't be done that easy, and I'm sure I'd get trashed in these forums. Y'all would go out of your way to screw up my sales, so it could be too risky. That and I would have trouble sleeping.
 
WyoNonSmith said:
Well, as the market goes to hell, I thought I'd take an opportunity... I was thinking about funding a venture to make knock-offs of custom knives over in India. I had it all figured out. It seems to me that with all their little metal workers that are fairly skilled, and the fact that they would work REALLY cheaply, it shouldn't be that hard. Buy a couple three originals (cost $2000 or so), or just have my workers work off of some good pics from the magazines (cost $20 or so), crank out 300 or so knives of each (cost about $50-75 per with materials (i'd want to use good materials)and after shipping and such) with a slight change to the maker's mark or not even bother with a mark, sell them for $200-300 each as hand forged knives(using a dummy corp of some sort and the internet). Then go find some new models to reproduce and start it all over. Heck, I could make a buck and help feed some third worlders... I hear that they will work for a few bucks a week.
Do you think that buyers would look close enough to tell the difference if I had "Hancook" instead of Hancock, "furr" instead of Farr, "fugg" instead of Fogg, and the like? How about the MS, which I think would give added value...could I get away with using it, or would I have to use a facimile like SW or N MS (not mastersmith)?


OKay, okay... now that I'm sure I pumped up blood pressures across the world... I am just jerking y'all's chains. I'm pretty sure that it couldn't be done that easy, and I'm sure I'd get trashed in these forums. Y'all would go out of your way to screw up my sales, so it could be too risky. That and I would have trouble sleeping.
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IMO ... at least to me ... Collecting custom knives .. it's not about price ... it's about the maker him/her self then the product.
 
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see, humor is good!:D
Dangerous too!:eek:
 
Custom designs overseas? India? Rob Charlton did with with Moran (with Moran's permission, years ago).

Jim Parker knocked off the Loveless style Horn folders in the 70's, and even called it the Longhorn (but that was made in Japan). As I recall Jess didn't think it too funny at the time.

Parker also knocked off Jim Weyer's unique design of a folder that Weyer drew up to be totally different than anyone out there and was having different makers make the design.

And then there was the front lock style of Harvey McBurnette and W. T. Fuller that was the talk of the Guild show one year--that soon was showing up on Al Mar folders.

This was before we had the old slow Blade shows in Cincinnati, so slow that the manufacturers had time to leave their booths and wander into the handmade sections and where they actually met and talked to knifemakers. (i. e. the start of collaborations).

The more things change...
 
sorry to dredge this one back up, but I had another angle on the topic of the aftermarket being in the toilet;

So, yeah, it's possible that lots of people are going to liquidate their knives when times get rough, but here's the thing. I'll bet that a lot of knife folk really value their knives and will wait until the absolute last minute before they part with their knives- which are relatively liquid if you're prepared to take a loss.

Since most who sell in the aftermarket are looking for a profit, and to whom taking a loss is unacceptable, it follows that once the panickers shed their possessions for cash, the aftermarket might just dry up, since the hardcores will find other ways to make ends meet instead of selling their stuff at a loss.

Another way for the aftermarket to go down the toilet is for it simply to vanish, (for the most part) as opposed to values simply decreasing from an investment standpoint, which was what I initially was thinking about at the start of this thread.

This in itself could be a very good thing for guys and gals making knives, as there could be less competition from the aftermarket.

Does that make sense, or am I off my nut?
 
Lorien said:
sorry to dredge this one back up, but I had another angle on the topic of the aftermarket being in the toilet;

So, yeah, it's possible that lots of people are going to liquidate their knives when times get rough, but here's the thing. I'll bet that a lot of knife folk really value their knives and will wait until the absolute last minute before they part with their knives- which are relatively liquid if you're prepared to take a loss.

Since most who sell in the aftermarket are looking for a profit, and to whom taking a loss is unacceptable, it follows that once the panickers shed their possessions for cash, the aftermarket might just dry up, since the hardcores will find other ways to make ends meet instead of selling their stuff at a loss.

IMO, most who sell custom knives in the secondary market are not looking for a profit, there lies the problem.

Another way for the aftermarket to go down the toilet is for it simply to vanish, (for the most part) as opposed to values simply decreasing from an investment standpoint, which was what I initially was thinking about at the start of this thread.

IMO, the secondary market will never vanish, unless makers just stop making knives. ;)

This in itself could be a very good thing for guys and gals making knives, as there could be less competition from the aftermarket.

Does that make sense, or am I off my nut?
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The first effect might be that waiting times for some makers go down. I'm currently without a job (bad timing on my part), and I decided to cancel nearly all my outstanding orders (except those that I expect will not be delivered any time soon if at all). I'm not desperate or in the ropes, but I decided it was the best course of action given the prospects of a slow job market.
 
I simply look at online retailer sales. And in speaking with two of them, both agreed that the economy's effect was having a pronounced affect on sales. They were not in the toilet, but one indicated that right after one of those many major wall street negative events in recent weeks, he had a deluge of cancellations from knives on hold.

Then I would point to Knife Legends, which has absolutely remarkable and glorious knives. It is only in the last month that Knife Legends has put up a "special values" page, reducing some knives significantly. And the list of knives on this page grows each week. Unheard of for Knife Legends.

I think these two things are anecdotal but tell the story well - the aftermarket is affected. Who knows to what degree. There is nothing anyone can do about it, so go with the flow. Don't worry about it. I am not sure there are knives beginning to flood the market, however. I simply see declining sales, probably brought about by the economic conditions that seem to manifest themselves on a daily basis.
 
As someone who collects and sometimes sells high end tactical knives I have noticed a real slowdown in sales of the higher priced items. I look at the USN and CK&G for sale forums on a daily basis and I can tell you that knives by Lee Williams, Onion, Boguszewski, Marlowe, etc. are not selling, even at marked down prices. Same for online purveyors, stuff that would sell right away 6 months ago is for sale and not selling. In my opinion the feeling people have is wait and see, do I really need that knife right now, maybe I can get a better deal down the road, there are plenty of shows I can score a knife at, etc.
 
I have a couple of knives on consignment with a few different dealers. All are knives from reputable makers and although they are priced right and up for quite a while all haven't sold so far. Secondary market In the toilet no but slowed down yes IMO.

Marcel
 
I'm sure the secondary market is slower than in the past but remember, in the last few years the number of dealers has increased, adding a lot of knives to the market.
There were 30+/- dealers at the Chicago show two months ago. Lot of dealers for a show this size!

The positives; there are going to be some great deals and I just paid $1.93 for gas :D
 
Don Hanson III said:
I'm sure the secondary market is slower than in the past but remember, in the last few years the number of dealers has increased, adding a lot of knives to the market.
There were 30+/- dealers at the Chicago show two months ago. Lot of dealers for a show this size!

The positives; there are going to be some great deals and I just paid $1.93 for gas :D
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hhhhhmmmm ... $1.93, two days ago was 2.10ish in my area .. gotta check it today.
 
so knives the would have sold in minutes are not moving months after being posted and at hella cheap prices. if thats not "in the toilet" then what is?
 
Shing said:
People with money in stocks and other investments may liquidate them and put their money into knives and other collectables that may offer a better return or at least less chance of going down.
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LOL!:D

If you can sell my wife on this idea I would appreciate it!
 
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