Aftermarket in the Toilet?

Lorien said:
sorry to dredge this one back up, but I had another angle on the topic of the aftermarket being in the toilet;

So, yeah, it's possible that lots of people are going to liquidate their knives when times get rough, but here's the thing. I'll bet that a lot of knife folk really value their knives and will wait until the absolute last minute before they part with their knives- which are relatively liquid if you're prepared to take a loss.

Since most who sell in the aftermarket are looking for a profit, and to whom taking a loss is unacceptable, it follows that once the panickers shed their possessions for cash, the aftermarket might just dry up, since the hardcores will find other ways to make ends meet instead of selling their stuff at a loss.

Another way for the aftermarket to go down the toilet is for it simply to vanish, (for the most part) as opposed to values simply decreasing from an investment standpoint, which was what I initially was thinking about at the start of this thread.

This in itself could be a very good thing for guys and gals making knives, as there could be less competition from the aftermarket.

Does that make sense, or am I off my nut?
Click to expand...

you just could not let this one fade away huh?

funny, the biggest prophets of doom seem to be people who have never spent more than $1000 on a knife....
 
drf1- first of all I never claimed to be a prophet of anything. Certainly not of doom.

I checked out your profile and since you've been a member from 04, I noticed you've sold a lot of knives on this forum. That means you have some experience with the topic at hand, so why not share your insights, and contribute, instead of making questionable generalizations about me?
Please:).
 
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If you choose to ignore any past history of knives in a recession--at least within the 30 years that I have been in the business--then you are right--it may be in the toilet. Panic. Sell out now. Send them to me to auction. Despite the naysayers I suspect there are still a few of us uninformed that will still be more than happy to handle a good knife.

However, based on past times during recessions--knives were only in the toilet for those who chose to put them there. For those knife owners who chose to not participate in the recession, knives did very well. Especially in the aftermarket.

My biggest concern about this continuing thread is I see several people posting who I know personally--who based on experience, time in the game, etc.--do indeed know what they are talking about. And some seem to ignore them and continue on insisting that the aftermarket is in the toilet. My fear is all this negative talk will influence the newer collectors who have not been through previous recessions as knife owners.

Prices do not always go up.

I would also venture that just like real estate in California, some high priced knives in the aftermarket were simply overpriced ro begin with, almost to bubble levels, and due to the recession you will see a price correction. This decline in price is not a knife going into the toilet but perhaps an knife finding its true market value.

I had a good friend who was a professional salesman prior to becoming a knifemaker--and he was always able to get a few hundred dollars more than other makers for comparable knives, because of his sales ability. And collectors eagerly bought his knives--and when those knives hit the aftermarket the sales talk for which the original purchaser had paid the premium -- did not transfer. Nor did the premium for the original purchaser to be able to say to his friends, " I bought this direct from the maker."
I venture the true market value of the knife itself is what the knife sold for without the "maker premium" and without the sales pitch.

If you buy knives at the top of the market, at the highest price a knifemaker charges, and perhaps from a maker who is more expensive for a knife that is comparable to less expensive knives by other makers, and when you sell it and it does not bring a profit, it does not mean the aftermarket is in the toilet. It may mean your buying judgment is what was in the toilet.

I know forums are for open opinions--but on this particular subject I do wish there was a way to point out time in market, $$ spent on knives annually, number of downturns survived, as I have a lot more interest and give more credibility to those who have been there to those who have not and are simply offering an opinion with nothing to back it up.

When Les Robertson, AG, and a few others panic, then I'll start worrying.



J. Bruce Voyles
 
TennKnifeman said:
If you choose to ignore any past history of knives in a recession--at least within the 30 years that I have been in the business--then you are right--it may be in the toilet. Panic. Sell out now. Send them to me to auction. Despite the naysayers I suspect there are still a few of us uninformed that will still be more than happy to handle a good knife.

However, based on past times during recessions--knives were only in the toilet for those who chose to put them there.

For those knife owners who chose to not participate in the recession, knives did very well. Especially in the aftermarket.
My biggest concern about this continuing thread is I see several people posting who I know personally--who based on experience, time in the game, etc.--do indeed know what they are talking about. And some seem to ignore them and continue on insisting that the aftermarket is in the toilet. My fear is all this negative talk will influence the newer collectors who have not been through previous recessions as knife owners.

I venture the true market value of the knife itself is what the knife sold for without the "maker premium" and without the sales pitch.

It may mean your buying judgment is what was in the toilet.

I know forums are for open opinions--but on this particular subject I do wish there was a way to point out time in market, $$ spent on knives annually, number of downturns survived, as I have a lot more interest and give more credibility to those who have been there to those who have not and are simply offering an opinion with nothing to back it up.

When Les Robertson, AG, and a few others panic, then I'll start worrying.

J. Bruce Voyles
Click to expand...

Absolute pearls, Bruce! And like much of true wisdom that is put out there for no charge...it will probably be ignored. You, A.G. and Les need to band together for $100.00/person seminar, so then perhaps the naysayers and newbies will pay attention(as well as some cash, lol:D), and stop acting like they know something.

We can remain somewhat in opposition about the value of forums, and the inherent democracy values represented. The thing I have found about the O.P. is that he remains enthusiastic about knives...and that is the bottom line.

Best Regards,

STeven Garsson
 
Thanks Bruce. That was what I wanted to hear someone with experience point out.
There's ebb and flow with all things, and Bruce, if you are of the mind that this applies in this case, that's good enough for me.

I don't claim to have lots of personal experience. Indeed, the whole reason I started with this thread was to become better educated, not to drag anyone down. Not that I believe that one single thread in this forum has that power, and certainly not one that I started. If this topic did hurt anyone, please accept my apologies. That wasn't my intent.

If anything, hopefully new collectors are better aware of current market conditions, and are keeping their eyes open for good deals and starting to build their collections, now when the aftermarket is at a temporary ebb.
 
Lorien, nothing to apologize for. You did the right thing, you stimulated thought! Perhaps the thread's name could have been worded differently - but if it were, maybe we would not have had such thoughtful comments produced here.
 
Bruce - thanks for that.

Lorien - this has been a very worthwhile thread.

Roger
 
TennKnifeman said:
If you choose to ignore any past history of knives in a recession--at least within the 30 years that I have been in the business--then you are right--it may be in the toilet. Panic. Sell out now. Send them to me to auction. Despite the naysayers I suspect there are still a few of us uninformed that will still be more than happy to handle a good knife.

However, based on past times during recessions--knives were only in the toilet for those who chose to put them there. For those knife owners who chose to not participate in the recession, knives did very well. Especially in the aftermarket.

My biggest concern about this continuing thread is I see several people posting who I know personally--who based on experience, time in the game, etc.--do indeed know what they are talking about. And some seem to ignore them and continue on insisting that the aftermarket is in the toilet. My fear is all this negative talk will influence the newer collectors who have not been through previous recessions as knife owners.

Prices do not always go up.

I would also venture that just like real estate in California, some high priced knives in the aftermarket were simply overpriced ro begin with, almost to bubble levels, and due to the recession you will see a price correction. This decline in price is not a knife going into the toilet but perhaps an knife finding its true market value.

I had a good friend who was a professional salesman prior to becoming a knifemaker--and he was always able to get a few hundred dollars more than other makers for comparable knives, because of his sales ability. And collectors eagerly bought his knives--and when those knives hit the aftermarket the sales talk for which the original purchaser had paid the premium -- did not transfer. Nor did the premium for the original purchaser to be able to say to his friends, " I bought this direct from the maker."
I venture the true market value of the knife itself is what the knife sold for without the "maker premium" and without the sales pitch.

If you buy knives at the top of the market, at the highest price a knifemaker charges, and perhaps from a maker who is more expensive for a knife that is comparable to less expensive knives by other makers, and when you sell it and it does not bring a profit, it does not mean the aftermarket is in the toilet. It may mean your buying judgment is what was in the toilet.

I know forums are for open opinions--but on this particular subject I do wish there was a way to point out time in market, $$ spent on knives annually, number of downturns survived, as I have a lot more interest and give more credibility to those who have been there to those who have not and are simply offering an opinion with nothing to back it up.

When Les Robertson, AG, and a few others panic, then I'll start worrying.



J. Bruce Voyles
Click to expand...

I would also like to thank you for your wisdom. This was, to me, the most sensible post in this thread. Also, I think it carries over into a LOT more collectible items than knives.

Peter
 
Need to check your rear-view mirror once in a while, drf1, cause the biggest prophet of doom is history. Of course, America's neo-Manifest Destiny entitlement of invincibility enables us to mock Santayana and veer left to "trickle up" economics and that golden chalice of hemlock.

Tomorrow America's unrelenting deconstruction continues when we voluntarily swap our founding economic soul (the American Dream) for a sugar daddy government. It's self-mutilating: the government will steal from the wealth makers (removing their incentive) to give to the poor (removing their incentive) producing the fruits of an incentiveless economy that has government eternally staving off bankruptcy by digging deeper into poor pockets and delivering less and less, including national security and our very survival.

America has changed, the world has changed, and we now enter unprecedented upheaval on all fronts concurrent with the present administration desperately trying to resuscitate a faltering economy that it, in partnership with derelict bankers and irresponsible buyers, created. This shows me how fragile economies are when even one parameter under our full control is mis-tweaked. Now we can add energy uncertainty, dabbling in tacit socialism, terrorist nuclear blasts in major cities, cataclysmic natural disasters, bird flu pandemics, enormous expenditures towards the environment, growing/new entitlement programs, a monstrous national debt, securing our borders and absorbing the financial liability of millions of illegal aliens, funding unprecedented security/military technology, etc. America has squandered much of her national wealth, and cannot fund all of her needs even when times are good, which is why the debt is free-falling.

To placidly portray the worst case scenario during these stormy, unpredictable times as mere economic ebb and flow mimicking recent good times is risky naivete at the very least. I have not and will not sell my stocks and mutual funds nor have I any knives that I will ever be forced to sell since I've been debt free for 25 years +, but I will not jump on those Wall Street "bargains" as I would in the past or indulge myself with non-essentials until I can make sense out of all this chaos.

We can debate forever, but 21 century economics is a conundrum on which even the experts do battle over most points. Guess we'll just have to wait and see, huh? For starters, I'll be very interested in what Wall Street has to say come Nov. 5.

The senile prophet of trepidation,
ken
 
Ken Williams said:
Need to check your rear-view mirror once in a while, drf1, cause the biggest prophet of doom is history. Of course, America's neo-Manifest Destiny entitlement of invincibility enables us to mock Santayana and veer left to "trickle up" economics and that golden chalice of hemlock.

Tomorrow America's unrelenting deconstruction continues when we voluntarily swap our founding economic soul (the American Dream) for a sugar daddy government. It's self-mutilating: the government will steal from the wealth makers (removing their incentive) to give to the poor (removing their incentive) producing the fruits of an incentiveless economy that has government eternally staving off bankruptcy by digging deeper into poor pockets and delivering less and less, including national security and our very survival.

America has changed, the world has changed, and we now enter unprecedented upheaval on all fronts concurrent with the present administration desperately trying to resuscitate a faltering economy that it, in partnership with derelict bankers and irresponsible buyers, created. This shows me how fragile economies are when even one parameter under our full control is mis-tweaked. Now we can add energy uncertainty, dabbling in tacit socialism, terrorist nuclear blasts in major cities, cataclysmic natural disasters, bird flu pandemics, enormous expenditures towards the environment, growing/new entitlement programs, a monstrous national debt, securing our borders and absorbing the financial liability of millions of illegal aliens, funding unprecedented security/military technology, etc. America has squandered much of her national wealth, and cannot fund all of her needs even when times are good, which is why the debt is free-falling.

To placidly portray the worst case scenario during these stormy, unpredictable times as mere economic ebb and flow mimicking recent good times is risky naivete at the very least. I have not and will not sell my stocks and mutual funds nor have I any knives that I will ever be forced to sell since I've been debt free for 25 years +, but I will not jump on those Wall Street "bargains" as I would in the past or indulge myself with non-essentials until I can make sense out of all this chaos.

We can debate forever, but 21 century economics is a conundrum on which even the experts do battle over most points. Guess we'll just have to wait and see, huh? For starters, I'll be very interested in what Wall Street has to say come Nov. 5.

The senile prophet of trepidation,
ken
Click to expand...

I think you'll find all that on aisle two.
 
This will be an interesting thread to look back at in about six months, to see if some of the folks that think they have an understanding of what is going to happen, really do.
 
that's a little part of the reason I brought the thread back, Keith, plus my pondering on whether the market is going into the toilet for buyers instead of sellers, unlike what I originally thought, in that people might just be holding on to their knives and not wanting to lose money on them, and/or supply might dry up due to other larger economic factors. Just a different angle, but who really knows?

When we first started talking about this stuff, the stock market etc hadn't had its melt down, so things have changed quite a bit, (more for some than for others). Also, the US dollar experienced a surge during the time. Election time always screws around with how people consume commodities, and how much they travel, (tourism season SUCKED this year when it came to US tourists, very few. Fortunately, lots of well to do Albertans picked up the slack and rented bikes from me enough to make it worth the PITA).

The surge in value of the greenback has definitely affected my ability to buy handmade American knives, and that was meagre at best while the dollar was on par. Unless the price of knives drops by 20% I won't be able to afford the American made knives I want for somewhat longer than I anticipated. I already had to put off my one, lonely order, and I'm going to very carefully prioritize who I want to get knives from, from here on in. In that sense, the aftermarket AND the primary market went down the toilet for me, at least if I'm wanting to do business across our border. I think I'm just going to learn to make knives for myself. It can't be that hard.;) Just kidding, but not really.

All I can say is that I'm very lucky and glad that I was able to cancel the order I had going since this time last year, or else it would have cost an additional 15-20%, or $300-$350, and that would have sucked, especially in light of the bleak financial possibilities we all may be facing. As far as I'm concerned, it was a wicked knife that I wanted so much and waited so long for, only to watch in horror as it got flushed down the toilet.

Worst part is, I flushed it. Reminds me of a time near Lake Tahoe, where a trippy hippy we picked up got us super stoned and gave us a bag of weed, while we were on our way to Santa Cruz for no good reason, other than to ride. I got so paranoid we'd get caught with it, I flushed it down the toilet of some rest stop somewhere, where these family's were having little picnics.

To this day, I slap my forehead in disbelief that I was able to give in to the paranoia. It was amazing grass, and I flushed it down the toilet! But it was a good lesson which I'll take with me always.:) Just kidding. But not really:).
 
Californians must be flocking to aisle 2, Betzner, judging by the diaspora of so many of them up north to my diggns'. Or maybe they're just culls winnowed out by the high cost of living, leaving paradise to the cool and wealthy.

But therein lies the mystery: why am I always reading about California facing insolvency, especially given its size and natural wealth?

ken
 
The bit about "absorbing the financial liability of millions of illegal aliens" is nonsense, but the rest of Ken Williams' post should not be dismissed too rapidly. I don't think we'll see a complete economic meltdown anytime soon, but the problems he raises are real, and neither the Left nor the pseudo-Right has made any interesting proposal to solve the core issues. To be fair to politicians, it's largely because the American people as a whole prefers to stick their heads in the sand (present company excluded, of course ;)).
 
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