Concerns About Survive! Business and Misleading Lead Time Estimates

[mtangent]

Yeah, my main doubts with Skystorm's theory is that, to me, it doesn't pass Hanlon's Razor:"Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity"

That said, anything's possible at this point.

Skystorm's theory does sound like stupidity to me, not malice. Inexperienced business people have a cashflow issue, but plenty of ready buyers. Think up 3 ways to grab some cash. I doubt they were thinking malicious, but I can understand why longterm waiters may feel that way.

 

[chiral.grolim]

To an extent. I'd argue that it's hard to tell if they were indicating "two months", as a hard timeline, or if "couple months" was meant to be intentionally vague.

Actually, I guess that suggests the latter.

Could just be a really unfortunate choice of diction — though you'd hope they'd know better by now.

^this right here.

Wrong on all of four of your claims.

There are multiple complaints being leveld about the Monday order not being met. Timichango, and myself.

Survive hasn't "corrected" the wording.. They only changed it. Monday sales have been moved Wednesday and now It says "a few weeks" instead of 15 days.. same difference.
http://surviveknives.com/how-to-buy/

Survive changed the wording to "a few weeks" in the middle of the ongoing delay so shows intent.

On your other claim that "some instances" I was told directly from survive that all the September orders were delayed (running behind) by over a month past the Point of sale lead time.

First off, no, there is only one complaint, or did you forget: http://www.bladeforums.com/forums/s...ay-Production-Updates?p=16452450#post16452450

Thanks for the update. I saw survive had mentioned recently 'We are expecting to start shipping the GSO-7/7 preorders out in about 2-3 months, depending on how these final steps go." And is where my ears had perked up.

I know you guys have been working on the 4.7 for well over a year and also sneak in a few other models here/there which equals a VERY Large time latitude on delivering all of a specific model; a latitude range that could run a year from the start of release. Words you use like "might, may, hope, expect" are really referring to open ended time frames and have no bearing whatsoever on when you actually deliver. I don't mean that as a challenge or an insult, it's just a fact. It was my mistake to read to much into the verbiage you guys put out, because ultimately as you disclose, "there are no time guarantees". Fair enough, lesson learned. The onus is on me now, and for me personally the lead times have grown way longer based off past, current and future projections then I'm comfortable with and will put in for some refund requests on the the remaining outstanding orders I have. Thank you and god speed.

Second, please prove that "few weeks" is the same as "15 days".

Third, yes, it shows "intent" to update customers on lead times, not to deceive.

Fourth, you were told that there was a delay, stated that you put in for refunds, yet you continue to assert that you did not? Why? To give you some sort of "standing" for complaint???

Finally, and somewhat OT, why do you choose not to use your wording from youtube and elsewhere when discussing S!K here on BF?

There is evident "intent" to deceive in this thread, but it is not on the part of S!K.

 

[timichango]

Skystorm's theory does sound like stupidity to me, not malice. Inexperienced business people have a cashflow issue, but plenty of ready buyers. Think up 3 ways to grab some cash. I doubt they were thinking malicious, but I can understand why longterm waiters may feel that way.

Yeah, to me they just seem like some nice folks that are having a rough time under the weight of self-inflicted business mistakes and deep liabilities, and digging themselves deeper by making further mistakes, trying to handle the initial mistakes.

I do commend their resilience, though: a lot of businesses would have folded up by now, and/or the founders devolved into alcoholism and depression. I've seen that one happen a few times, under pressure.

I really want them to figure out a solution, pull the proverbial canoe over, and chart a new course. I don't think they're scuppered yet, but they will be if they don't change the way they do business. And I'm not just talking about putting more bodies on the grinder.

 

[Revolverrodger]

Aren't you guys tired of saying the same thing over and over again ?
Cancel your pre-orders and please... get a life

 

[mlmcasual]

I am at NINE weeks and still no knife. There is no court of law or court of public opinion that either 15 days OR "a few weeks" could be misconstrued to NINE weeks.

 

[timichango]

Aren't you guys tired of saying the same thing over and over again ?
Cancel your pre-orders and please... get a life

Who's complaining about preorders?

 

[Revolverrodger]

Guys, knives are a friggin hobby and your life doesn't depend on knives (or does it ?)
If it causes you much heartache because a manufacturer doesn't deliver as promissed the best thing is to cancel and go look somewhere else (tons of grreat options).

I think this is the reasonnable thing to do. If some people choose to wait, it's their decision.

If survive refuses to refund then that's a completely different story

 

[timichango]

Guys, knives are a friggin hobby and your life doesn't depend on knives (or does it ?)
If it causes you much heartache because a manufacturer doesn't deliver as promissed the best thing is to cancel and go look somewhere else (tons of grreat options).

I think this is the reasonnable thing to do. If some people choose to wait, it's their decision.

If survive refuses to refund then that's a completely different story

Honest, unloaded question: what do you care what we discuss? I'll submit that at least part of what fuels this thread is that it's a pretty interesting business scenario to contemplate, debate, and try to get our heads around, leaving the complaints (legit or otherwise) aside. I've found the experience to be at least a bit instructive, personally.

I don't see anyone (other than the guy who got kicked out of this sub) trying to convince anyone not to wait.

 

[Tachead7075]

Yeah, no matter how you slice it, it ain't pretty.

Yeah, I wish they would just be honest. Just start saying it may be 2 or 3 years before you get your knife like some of the custom makers do. Its much better to overestimate on deadlines/delivery dates then to underestimate imo. Nobody complains if they get their knife too soon lol. But, maybe they wouldnt get enough new orders if they did that and then how would they pay their "fixed monthly costs"? They have really got themselves in a pickle havent they. The whole business model was flawed from the get go imo. Hopefully one day they will dig themselves out of this hole and start making the knives and then selling them like everyone else does. They really should get their SK series going so they have some profit coming in before they get in any deeper. Or, maybe its too late... Hopefully not because they really seem to make some nice knives.

 

[Larcivs Lepidvs]

In a few Survive! weeks God created lands and seas, then in a couple Survive! months He created all the animals and plants. After all that work He was very tired and eventually gave up on creating the knives.

 

[mlmcasual]

I don't know if you are saying there is One complaint shared amoung several, or just ONE complaint on the missed Monday. If you meant the later, that is incorrect.. Both timichango and I had mentioned this.

^this right here.
Second, please prove that "few weeks" is the same as "15 days".

I don't have to prove it. I said it wasn't fixed. I am nine weeks and no knife. Nine weeks is not even close to 15days or "few weeks"

Third, yes, it shows "intent" to update customers on lead times, not to deceive.

The update of a "few weeks" was done Concurrently that SK! knew september 2nds where going to be at Nine Weeks. So it was intent to continue deception.. not "update customers"

Fourth, you were told that there was a delay, stated that you put in for refunds, yet you continue to assert that you did not? Why? To give you some sort of "standing" for complaint???

?? You seem to have my previous posts mixed up and referring to my preorders. I am talking about my September Monday order here. I was NOT told there was Delay on MY Monday order. I called ATER I was already delayed at two months of my order, THEY did not contact me. They said it would be few MORE weeks and that September monday orders would be shipping in November. I put in refund requests for pre order knives not the monday sale I am still waiting on.

Finally, and somewhat OT, why do you choose not to use your wording from youtube and elsewhere when discussing S!K here on BF? There is evident "intent" to deceive in this thread, but it is not on the part of S!K.

My wording? I don't have any youtube wording, I just have my wording here and on GBU stating same case. If you are again implying I am someone else, or First Alchamy or whoever.. take the tin foil hat off. I get it, you choose to passive aggressive insult me. But I consider the personal attacks trolling and don't feel the need to respond. Now, if you honestly want to litigate things like a few weeks VS. 15 days to surrogate for SK! that's fine, but please do so without the personal attacks. I will do the same moving forward.

 

[Revolverrodger]

Honest, unloaded question: what do you care what we discuss? I'll submit that at least part of what fuels this thread is that it's a pretty interesting business scenario to contemplate, debate, and try to get our heads around, leaving the complaints (legit or otherwise) aside. I've found the experience to be at least a bit instructive, personally.

I don't see anyone (other than the guy who got kicked out of this sub) trying to convince anyone not to wait.

You are right that people are are allowed to discuss what they want as long as they are respectfull.
I just don't see the value of this thread...

I guess I will take my own suggestion and stop posting here

 

[mtangent]

Honest, unloaded question: what do you care what we discuss? I'll submit that at least part of what fuels this thread is that it's a pretty interesting business scenario to contemplate, debate, and try to get our heads around, leaving the complaints (legit or otherwise) aside. I've found the experience to be at least a bit instructive, personally.

I don't see anyone (other than the guy who got kicked out of this sub) trying to convince anyone not to wait.

Aren't you guys tired of saying the same thing over and over again ?
Cancel your pre-orders and please... get a life

Roger keeps suggesting people don't wait.
This is an interesting thread, for many diverse reasons.

 

[Skystorm]

Try and separate emotion from response. Could interpret = theory, not stating certified fact. Either way, I won't be the one doing the interpreting. What I will be curious to see is what an independent source has to make of the first and seconds being shipped for evaluation. Other than being marked as a second, they are indistinguishable.

I could see a logical reason for running deliberate seconds batches, Low operating funds. You obviously could not sell them as first when people are still waiting on their order and suddenly you have 100 available, at that point even the most die hard supporter might think, now wait just a tic what about mine...


Not to be completely negative nancy, The upside to this week is that I wound up with an extra 4.7 that I did not think was coming. The seller apparently just needed a little motivation from Paypal to find a post office. What to do with it.

You're the first I've ever heard claim that refunds need to be "hounded out of them". That was your experience?

When S!K opened the Starter, models were offered at a significant discount with an indefinite delivery time. Pre-order and pre-sale knives had the same indefinite delivery time. HOWEVER, S!K specifically stated that they produce MORE of each model than is actually ordered, anticipating some "seconds", etc. and also producing more for sale to cover operating costs. The Starter orders were to help grow the company, not to sustain it indefinitely.



Survive has only been producing product since 2012 (4 years), and has gone through SIGNIFICANT changes in operation since their inception. The current iteration of the company essentially started in late 2014 / early 2015 when they moved across country. So that criticism is gone.

While "firsts" being distributed as "seconds" might make sense to some, S!K could have priced them much higher... but did not. "Willful intent" to ... deceive? Deceive whom? The customers receiving "firsts" priced as "seconds"?? Or the customers who gave signed consent to an indefinite delivery date? "Willful intent" can only exist IF some "wrong" had been perpetrated, and the "wrong" asserted in this thread is the missing of proposed shipping time-lines, ostensibly due to too many orders accepted and too few employees to inspect and complete them. Which part do you see as "willful intent" on the part of S!K? Which part would you argue to the FTC? That their contractors sent them too many parts requiring hand-finishing or unacceptable as "firsts"? What you are suggesting is that the company DELIBERATELY under-priced product to generate less maintenance funds than they otherwise might have, and then failed to deliver some of those knives on time? Remember, production images show >1000 4.7s alone. How many were offered on a "Monday Sale" or the like and then missed their date? All of them? Most of them? Just some of them? How many indicates "willful intent" on the part of S!K? These sales started with the GSO-5.1s, then the 4.7s and 2.7s, and indeed a number of posters commented on receiving their orders within the previously specified time-frame. Others have commented that their orders were delayed, some substantially so... but no claims of denied refunds.

There is ONE complaint being leveled: S!K published a delivery time-frame at point of sale for "Monday Sales" that it failed to meet in some instances. It has since corrected the wording of the time-frame and has been working hard ever since to fulfill all existing orders. "Willful intent" would be very hard to argue.

 

[grogimus]

Try and separate emotion from response. Could interpret = theory, not stating certified fact. Either way, I won't be the one doing the interpreting. What I will be curious to see is what an independent source has to make of the first and seconds being shipped for evaluation. Other than being marked as a second, they are indistinguishable.

I could see a logical reason for running deliberate seconds batches, Low operating funds. You obviously could not sell them as first when people are still waiting on their order and suddenly you have 100 available, at that point even the most die hard supporter might think, now wait just a tic what about mine...


Not to be completely negative nancy, The upside to this week is that I wound up with an extra 4.7 that I did not think was coming. The seller apparently just needed a little motivation from Paypal to find a post office. What to do with it.

Fwiw, I think the standards are just higher than what most people would expect for the GSO's. I had a 2.7 2nd that I couldn't find any boo boos on but another person pointed out that one side was ground slightly higher.

Congrats on the 4.7, pretty dang nice knife IMO.

Sent from my XT1254 using Tapatalk

 

[mtangent]

Yeah, to me they just seem like some nice folks that are having a rough time under the weight of self-inflicted business mistakes and deep liabilities, and digging themselves deeper by making further mistakes, trying to handle the initial mistakes.

I do commend their resilience, though: a lot of businesses would have folded up by now, and/or the founders devolved into alcoholism and depression. I've seen that one happen a few times, under pressure.

I really want them to figure out a solution, pull the proverbial canoe over, and chart a new course. I don't think they're scuppered yet, but they will be if they don't change the way they do business. And I'm not just talking about putting more bodies on the grinder.

Scammers would have disappeared by now. They seem to be people struggling with a steep learning curve, in a complicated world. They should have sold less knives, at a higher price, but it is too late for that advice.

 

[Tachead7075]

Scammers would have disappeared by now. They seem to be people struggling with a steep learning curve, in a complicated world. They should have sold less knives, at a higher price, but it is too late for that advice.

Or, hired a business planner/got a bachelors degree in business before opening up shop/operations. Especially such a large operation. Like you said though, its too late for that now. Now, they just have to dig themselves out of the hole or go bust. I still think bringing in a business planner now could help prevent the latter. They also need to drastically change how they deal with customers if they already haven't done too much damage.

 

[gsx-rboy750]

Who's complaining about preorders?

If it was his car or something he would be freaking out about this but because it involves FB status you are the shithead. I seen the same shit 2 years ago when I was interested in their knives. Look it feather sticks, look pic look guy guy, look update update. AH fucking cult anyone. Seriously. the fuck do people need 3.5,3.4, 5 , 5.1, 4.7, 4.7 cf dat dat.

 

[Karoi]

Scammers would have disappeared by now. They seem to be people struggling with a steep learning curve, in a complicated world. They should have sold less knives, at a higher price, but it is too late for that advice.

Or, hired a business planner/got a bachelors degree in business before opening up shop/operations. Especially such a large operation. Like you said though, its too late for that now. Now, they just have to dig themselves out of the hole or go bust. I still think bringing in a business planner now could help prevent the latter. They also need to drastically change how they deal with customers if they already haven't done too much damage.

I agree with you guys 100%. As I've said before, if guy could also lower his strict quality control standards even just a little, then maybe the whole operation could be sped up quite a bit. I'm sure the vast majority of us would still buy these knives with minor blemishes or with an edge that isn't almost as sharp as a scalpel!

Some BF members have come up with some excellent suggestions for which the company could implement, but if Guy chooses not change anything or it's too late to do so, then history will keep repeating itself over and over again.
I wish him and Ellie the very best and sincerely hope that their company doesn't fold anytime soon.....

 

[gsx-rboy750]

I'm sure the vast majority of us would still buy these knives with minor blemishes or with an edge that isn't almost as sharp as a scalpel!

QUOTE]
Its a survival knife. It should get a beating. Yet........